Below are yearly, quarterly, and monthly charts detailing the performance of the Dow index in a year for which the last two weeks of the previous year performed strongly.  We define "strongly" as a Dow gain of greater than 1.1% in that period, which excludes 50% of Dow yearly data since 1929.

The idea is to test the notion, floated around by some gurus, that a strong "Santa Claus Rally" bodes well for the upcoming year.  Below, however, one is pressed to see any special patterns emerge from the yearly seasonal chart....the chart strongly resembles our broader chart of Dow seasonality (with no periods of data removed).

We certainly don't expect the quarterly and monthly charts below to be especially insightful...we threw them in via force of habit.

Potential investors should utilize our seasonal charts in conjunction with other indicators of future success.  Our tests do seem to indicate that these charts can increase the likelihood of profitable trades, but these charts certainly should not be taken as the "end all and be all" of successful trading.

The yearly seasonal charts are compiled by simply averaging all historical percentage gains/losses for the first day of the year, second day of the year, etc.  The quarterly and monthly charts are compiled in similar fashion, but this time we overlay the days of the quarters and months, as opposed to days of the year.  The quarterly charts are particularly useful when viewed in light of quarterly earnings and dividend milestones.

Feel free to request additional charts (in moderation):  khodge @ stockwarrants.com .

For more background and caveats on our charts, visit our main "seasonal charts" page.

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