For a bit of fun, go to Yahoo and type something along the lines of "2003 Market Forecast".  You'll get a long list of relevant pages (2.5 million pages when we tried!), with some very prominent talking heads telling you what would happen in 2003.  It feels like more than 50% of these guys were wrong, especially when you consider that some of these pages were certainly altered retrospectively (you can sometimes check the data of alteration by choosing File->Properties on your browser).

Some of the pages we checked had very elaborate analysis, historic charts, obscure indicators...you name it.  Amazing the detail that goes into predicting something as fuzzy as long-term market behavior.

In general, the feeling we got from the "2003 Market Forecasts" was one of negativity.  After all is said and done, and the Bollinger bands, trend lines, and moving averages have been drawn in, it seems like these predictions have more to do with the personal psychology of the analyst than anything else. 

Of course, when these guys do get it right, you'll never hear the end of it.

The very first hit we got was for a site that combines astrology and stock market prediction.  We're about as skeptical as can be on this subject, but it wouldn't be difficult for us to find correlations with planetary motion and stock market behavior.  You could say, "buy yearlong losers when the sun is in Capricorn".  Or, you could say, "buy yearlong losers in January".  Note also that Mercury makes about one orbit around the sun per quarter (88 days, actually), so an intrepid astrologer/data-snooper ought to be able to find something interesting there.  Since the earth is also traveling around the sun, though, the time it takes for planets to return to the same position (with respect to the earth) also varies in a periodic way.  The myriad conjunctions and oppositions of various planets also occur at predictable intervals.  Sunspots operate on an 11 year cycle.  The possibilities for finding correlations are nearly unlimited!

In terms of profits, "buy losers in January" performs no better than "buy losers when the sun is in Capricorn".  So what's the difference?  Primarily, the first rule allows you to test and make certain predictions...if tax loss selling is implicated in January gains, shouldn't we expect something of a similar nature at the beginnings of quarters?

By the way, why do these astrologers pay so much attention to Pluto?  The planet wasn't even discovered until 1930!  Now some scientists question if maybe it isn't more like a large asteroid than a planet. 

Searching the net, there are a few astrologers who pay attention to asteroids.  We dug this up regarding Ceres, one of the largest asteroids: 

Ceres also governs food complexes, as indicated by Ceres' refusal to eat; withdrawal of support; and work stoppages, as she halted food production as a means of control. Therefore Ceres rules eating disorders.

Hmmm...suppose that scientists suddenly decided to rename this asteroid...what would happen then?  Digging through the internet, the scientist (Guiseppe Piazzi) who discovered Ceres in 1801 actually named it "Ceres Ferdinandea", with the "Ferdinandea" relating to Piazzi's royal patron.  Ceres is the patron goddess of Sicily, so the name likely reflects some warm, possibly patriotic, feelings for Piazzi's motherland. 

And hey, each of these asteroids has a numerical designation...shouldn't we be paying some attention to that?

Truly amazing...first you've got a Greek/Roman myth about Ceres, who apparently refused to eat.  Then you get a scientist in Italy 200 years ago who decides to name an asteroid based on Sicilian custom.  Then you conclude that this asteroid must "govern" eating disorders.

Always an eating disorder with these folks.

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