Mar 30:  The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%...despite the fairly large gains, stocks moved more or less in tandem.

Big gainers include 3 month losers...up as much as 2.8%, followed by semiconductors.  We checked to see how much overlap there is between the groups...about 30% of the stocks in the latter group are represented in the former.  This suggests that the market is placing some focus on big losers...a new trend, very much worth keeping an eye on as the second quarter approaches.  Other gainers include volatiles and cheap stocks.

No groups finished with a loss.  Outside of proprietary indicators, those stocks with nice gains over the last week to month were weak...up as little as .6%.  Stocks that have outperformed their best "trading pair" partner over the last month were also weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.  Historically, of course, the end of the month has been a strong period for stocks, regardless of the performance of prior sessions.

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By the way, in case you haven't noticed, we've made some changes on the site.  You can now look at daily summaries of the market that go back to 1987, arranged by year (as opposed to month, our prior format).  These tables incorporate some new indicators.

Of course, mounds of market summaries going back 18 years is of questionable value to the ordinary investor.  Primarily, it's of use with our "similar markets" program, which scans this historic data for patterns that look similar to the most recent market session.  But we'll be rebuilding all our tables...bi-monthly, monthly, and quarterly...in the weeks to come.  We'll begin with March, April, and first and second quarter tables, since those obviously are of current interest to investors.

Mar 29:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

No group finished with a gain.  Non-volatiles resisted losses well, though...down as little as .4%.  REIT's and healthcare (not drug-related) held up well.  Somewhat surprisingly, small caps resisted losses well, going against a recent trend.

The negative side of our tables was topped by volatiles...down as much as 3.1%.  Yearlong gainers were punished (-2.8%), but yearlong losers were weak as well.  Metals and mining were hurt to the tune of 2.6%.  Yesterday's losers continued on the losing path.  Stocks with poor fundamentals (as measured by p/e ratio and profit margin) were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 28:  More dreary action in the major indices:  the Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Retails led the way on the positive side...up .8%.  Stocks with high institutional or insider holdings fared well.

On the losing side, yearlong losers were hit again...down 1.7%.  This group in general has been hit quite hard over the quarter.  Perhaps too hard, giving us reason to speculate on the chances of a second quarter rebound.  1 month and 3 month losers were also quite weak.  The nearest industry group was biotechs, down about 1%.

The above trends are neutral for tomorrow's market.

Mar 24:  As with yesterday, the Dow lost .1%, while Nasdaq was flat.  Again, our own view of the broad market differed because of a small-cap/large-cap divergence...we had the market up .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Despite the relatively broad separation between our best and worst groups, nothing amazingly significant (in a statistical sense) emerged.  The flatness in the major indices did, however, conceal big gains in volatile stocks (up 2.7%!), and Tuesday's gainers.  Stocks with low institutional holdings fared well.

On the losing side, nothing noteworthy was revealed.  Banks and insurance stocks were weak.

The above trends, especially the gains in volatile stocks,  are positive for Monday's market.

Mar 23:   The Dow lost .1%, while Nasdaq was flat.  Our own non-weighted take on the market had it down .7%...small caps got burned, nipping a promising trend in its infancy.  Separation between groups was 2.9%, with sharply focused gains/losses in a couple of industries.

Gainers were led by semiconductors...up .3%.  The group has done a fair job of resisting big losses in the face of recent market negativity.  Biotechs, large caps, and non-volatiles resisted losses well.

On the losing side, oils dropped 2.6%.  Naturally, metals and mining were weak as well.  Yearlong and three month gainers, and volatiles in general were weak.

The above trends are rather contradictory, so we'll refrain from speculating on the market tomorrow.

Mar 22:  Our subscribers might be curious as to what we're doing behind the scenes.  The answer is:  a lot.  For one thing, we're rebuilding virtually all our data tables...daily through yearly... including some new indicators, going back to the 1980's.  Quite a task...the computers (two of them) are running night and day.  We've tweaked most of our proprietary indicators to make them more potent, and we'll try to be a bit more transparent as to exactly what they're doing.

Another feature we'll be introducing will be analysis of individual stocks with the same sort of approach we use with the broader market.  Thus you'll be able to look at a table and see what strategies have worked well, historically speaking, for gains in, say, Microsoft stock.  You'll be able to see whether momentum or bottom fishing has worked better for one month gains in IBM, or day-trading in Intel.  Obviously, there are a lot of variables here...you could focus on more recent data, or look at data from the stock's inception.  You can look for one day gains, or 3 month gains.  We'll take viewer requests (up to a point, of course).

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Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .9%.  Separation between groups was again small...1.9%.

An interesting development on the positive side of the market:  small cap stocks topped our big gainers tables...up about .4%.  We haven't seen that behavior for quite a while.  Transportation stocks, those that had large losses on this day last year (!?), and moderately volatile stocks (the 80-90% decile) fared well.

The Fed raised short term interest rates today, so it shouldn't be surprising that REIT's were the group hit hardest...down 1.5%.  Utilities and insurance stocks were hurt as well.  Dividend payers and large caps in general were weak.

The market will probably spend a bit more time digesting today's interest rate change, so it's difficult to use today's data to predict tomorrow's market.  Ordinarily, though, we'd say we actually see some positivity...volatile stocks avoided the big losses today.

Mar 21:  The Dow lost .6%, while Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was a relatively meager 1.8%.

A number of our proprietary indicators did a fair job of predicting winners today...the best group gained 1%.  Outside of those indicators, semiconductors, stocks with recent losses, and moderately volatile (in the 70-80% decile) stocks fared well.

On the losing side, cheap stocks lost .8%, followed by stocks with weak recent volume, big dividend payers, banks, and last Friday's winners.

The above trends don't give many clues as to tomorrow's direction.  The gains in semiconductors should be considered positive.

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 (Saturday):  In the past, we've looked for the best predictors of the direction of tomorrow's market, glomming together years and years of historical data.  We've also commented numerous times that digging as far back into the past as possible isn't necessarily the best strategy for making forecasts...more recent data might be desirable.

We glommed together about 300 days of daily data (about 60,000 lines of data, with 200 randomly-chosen stocks per day) and tried to find the best predictors of gains and losses in the general market of the last 14 or so months.  In the end, nothing jumped out in terms of statistical significance...prediction of daily changes in the general market over this period has been a difficult task...don't let any so-called "experts" tell you otherwise.

Over the longer term, a market that closed well above its daily low has been a fairly strong indicator of gains in the next session...that rule hasn't worked particularly well over the last year or so.  Though hardly significant, the ends of months have been strong, while the beginnings have been weak...this does conform to history.

We also asked a somewhat different question...what have been the best daytrading strategies (using the data we have available, of course, which doesn't include minute-to-minute trading tables or honest to goodness bid/ask spreads) over this period?  Here the results did slip into statistical significance, though they weren't particularly surprising...buying yesterday's big losers has resulted in gains of around .4% per day, with stocks with a low "close-low" spread or a high "high-close" spread not far behind.  Stocks that slipped in relation to their best "trading pair" also fared nicely, though one would do well to wonder if this is more a consequence of the fact that such stocks tend to fall in yesterday's "big loser" column (i.e. it appears that this sort of naive "pair trading" may be inferior to ordinary bottom-fishing).

Mar 18:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .4%.  Separation between groups was 2%. Our own non-weighted take on the market had it down .6%...small caps got hit harder than the above indices would have you believe.

Only a handful of groups managed to show gains today.  Stocks with a strong history at this time of year gained .3%.  Monday's winners were strong, followed by oils.  Large caps, one month and three month winners, expensive stocks, and stocks with large institutional holdings all resisted losses.

On the losing side, yearlong losers lost 1.7%, followed by volatiles, Monday's losers, cheap stocks, semiconductors (-1.3%), and stocks with low institutional holdings.

The above trends are negative for Monday's session.

Mar 17:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Oils were up 1.4%.  Not surprisingly, then, yearlong gainers were strong as well.  However, it's worth noting that if you sort our daily spreadsheet according to stocks that have had strong yearlong gains, only about 15 of the top 100 are oil-related...the trend toward gains in yearlong gainers seems to have legs of its own.  Such behavior is indicative of a safety-oriented market atmosphere.  Note also the recent trend toward gains in the market, when they occur, without being led by volatiles.

On the losing side, cheap stocks, 3 month losers, volatiles, stocks with a poor history during this time of year, and yesterday's losers were weak.  Note the losses in 3 month losers...this would be the other side of the recent trend toward gains in long-term gainers.

The above trends are slightly negative for tomorrow's market, though one should bear in mind that Friday is the most likely day to see some sort of reversal of recent action.

Mar 16:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq .9%.   Separation between groups was 2.0%.  It's interesting to note that no industries appeared in our tables of best and worst performing groups today.  

Nothing particularly significant occured on the positive side of our tables...small caps, Monday's losers, stocks that opened well below Tuesday's close, and stocks that have a history of performing well in this time slot performed relatively well.  The latter indicator is rather odd...one wouldn't expect that a historically strong performance on March 16 would tend to repeat year after year, but this sort of indicator appears in our tables fairly frequently.

On the losing side, where the action was, stocks with a large cash/share figures lost 2%.  Cheap stocks, yearlong losers, fundamentally unsound stocks, and yesterday's losers all lost at least 1.5%.  Stocks with a large "high-close" differential in the previous session were also quite weak...an odd result, as such a large differential is usually a strong indicator of future gains.

We won't take a stance on tomorrow's market...today's losses are a negative sign in and of themselves, but we're heartened by the fact that volatile stocks weren't singled out for losses.

Mar 15:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

The best performing group today was stocks that have taken a recent beating...up as much as 1%.  Banks, REIT's, and the like were relatively strong.

The bulk of stocks lost.  Recent winners (down as much as 2.3%), semiconductors, biotechs, and cheap stocks in general were weak.  Oddly, though, indicators of volatility didn't figure prominently in determining whether a stock would lose or not...a vaguely positive sign.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 14:  We've crunched our data for the first half of March.  The general market, according to our take, was flat.  However, the notable moves were to be found in the negative column.

The only notable positive movement was with retail stocks, which gained 3% over the period.  Non-volatiles performed relatively well.

The loss column was topped by volatile stocks, with losses as high as 7%.  Yearlong losers continued to drop over the period...down 5.5%.  Biotechs were weak, as they usually are around this time of year.

Looking for matching periods, March h1 1996, 97, and 98 all fit decently.   Unfortunately, March h2 1996-1998 had some differing outcomes.  In general, retails continued their strength, oils were strong, and biotechs were weak.

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Yet again, the relative gains in the Dow and Nasdaq reverse...the Dow gained .3%, while Nasdaq gained .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Biotechs led the pack today with gains of 2.6%.  Utilities, large dividend-payers, and one month losers were strong.

On the weak side, semiconductors lost around .2%.  This is rather odd...when the Nasdaq index outperforms the Dow, one expects semiconductors to lead the way.  It appears that biotechs replaced the semiconductors today.  Small caps, stocks with weak recent volume, large yearlong gains, and high insider holdings were all weak today.

Again, we have contradictory trends in the market...general gains, with losses in volatile semiconductors.  We'll refrain from a prediction for tomorrow's market.

Mar 11:  The Dow lost .7% and Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks with nice yearlong gains led the way today...the group was up as much as .7%.  Yesterday's losers and yearlong gainers were relatively strong.

The bulk of stocks lost.  At the top of the list were semiconductors, down 1.7%.  Yearlong losers, small caps, and stocks with low institutional holdings dropped.

The above trends are negative for Monday's session.

Mar 10:  The Dow gained .4%, while Nasdaq lost .1%.  Rather strange...the two indices have been in the habit of reversing their relative gains (if the Dow outperformed the Nas yesterday, it underperforms today) for the last several weeks.  Separation between groups was 3.2%, with strongly focused gains/losses in two industries accounting for much of that difference.

REIT's reversed yesterday's losses, gaining .6%.  Non-volatiles in general resisted losses.

Oils were weak, losing 2.7%.  The other losing trends we saw (losses in stocks with large 3 month gains) were largely a consequence of the primary trend in oils.

We see the above trends as slightly negative for tomorrow's market, given the fact that non-volatiles best resisted losses.  However, volatile stocks were not selected out for losses...a positive sign.

Mar 9:  The Dow lost 1%, while Nasdaq lost .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

No groups finished with gains, though metals and mining were essentially flat.  We won't mention other groups simply because none of the gains here were significant in a statistical sense.

On the losing side, where the action was, losses were strongly focused on REIT's...down 2.5%...the next closest group was down only 1.8%.  Despite the strength in metals and mining, oils were weak...down 1.6%.  

The above trends are slightly negative for the market, but one can take heart in the fact that volatile stocks weren't selected out for losses.

Mar 8:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was a relatively measly 1.7%.

No groups stayed above water in our tables.  Oddly, the best group was that composed of stocks that might be perceived as particularly risky (our "prcvd_risk" indicator).  A number of normally dowdy industries...insurance, business and consumer services... hung tough in the face of general losses.  Non-volatiles in general were strong.

On the losing side, last Friday's big gainers lost 1.9%.  Monday's winners were weak as well.  Semiconductors lost 1.6%.  Volatiles in general were weak.

One trend that has been fairly obvious of late is that toward disorder in the markets.  Semiconductors gain, while other volatiles lose.  The Dow gains...Nasdaq loses.  The market gains nicely...with non-volatiles leading the way.  It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.  Theory says that markets are most vulnerable to heavy declines when trading is most orderly, so one would suspect we're not in any danger of a market catastrophe anytime soon.

Despite the oddity of gains in the "prcvd_risk" category, today's trends point to weakness tomorrow.

Mar 7:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Semiconductors gained 1.1%.  Other volatile groups, however, didn't appear on the winning side of our tables.  Despite the flatness in the Dow, large caps performed well compared to small caps...with an index composed of a mere 30 stocks, a false impression of the market can easily be made.

On the losing side of our tables, last Tuesday's and Friday's big losers continued to lose.  Biotechs, volatiles, cheap stocks, and those with low institutional holdings were all weak.

Another day of contradictory trends...gains in the market and volatile semiconductors...but weakness in volatile stocks in general.  If anything, we'd lean toward weakness in tomorrow's market.

Mar 4:  The Dow gained 1%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

The big gains shifted from oils to a related group, metals and mining...up 2.4%.  Oils weren't far behind, however, with 1.8% gains for the day.  A number of normally dowdy industries (e.g. construction) gained nicely as well.  Expensive stocks in general were strong.

The losses continued in biotechs...down .7%.  Stocks with recent to one-month losses were weak.

The above trends offer somewhat contradictory predictors of market action on Monday.  The gains in the general market are a positive sign, but the lack of participation by volatile groups is a negative.  We'll refrain from prognosticating.

Mar 3:  The  Dow was up .2%, while Nasdaq lost .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Oils added to yesterday's gains, up about 1.9%.  Stocks with large losses yesterday, a group which doesn't contain oil stocks, gained 1%.  Despite the losses in the Nasdaq index, small-caps fared well.

Biotechs were our weakest group, losing .9%.  Semconductors weren't far behind.  

The above trends, in which volatile stocks were victimized, are negative for the next session, though Friday is more likely to reverse a previous day's trends than other days of the week.

Mar 2:  The Dow and Nasdaq lost about .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%, with semiconductors and oils again at the two extremes.

Oils gained around 1.1%.  Naturally, yearlong and 3 month gainers were strong as well.

Semiconductors lost 1.5%.  And, naturally, yearlong losers were weak as well.

The above trends are negative for the next session...we like to see volatile semiconductors outperforming the market.

Mar 1:  The Dow was up .6%, Nasdaq 1.0%.  Separation between groups was 3.4%, with focused gains in semiconductors and focused losses in oils contributing to a large part of that difference.

Semiconductors gained 2.2%.  A number of dowdy retails, however, fared nicely as well, up as much as 2.0%.  Losers of every shade...recent to yearlong...gained.  Cheap stocks fared well.

Oils lost 1.2%.  Not surprisingly then, yearlong winners were weak as well.  

The above trends are positive for the next session.

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For the last 10 days of February, stocks lost a fraction...about .4%.

Oils were quite strong, gaining 6.5%.  The gains were particularly strong after risk-adjustment.  Yearlong gainers, of course, were strong as well.

Yearlong losers stayed on the losing path...down 3.5%.  Biotechs, however, were the weakest group...down 4.5%.

Looking for matching periods, Feb h2 2002 matches up fairly well.  March 2002 saw some very nice gains 3 month to 1 year losers, and semiconductors.

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We've got our data for the full month of February.  Our own non-weighted sampling of the general market has it up 1.3%.

Nice gains and losses were available by choosing the right groups.  Oils were our top performing group, gaining about 12% for the month.  When will this group let up?  Semiconductors gained about 8%, reversing January's nastiness.  Stocks that have strong tendencies to move in groups...in particular, semiconductors and oils...gained nicely in general.  Not surprisingly, metals and mining, and yearlong gainers fared well.

On the losing side, yearlong losers were weak, losing as much as 6%.  Biotechs weren't far behind.  Cheap stocks, small caps, and those with a history of losses in February all fell into the negative column.

In terms of matching this February to historical Februaries, Feb 2003 forms a decent match...gains in oils and semiconductors and yearlong gainers in general, and losses in cheap stocks and yearlong losers.  For what it's worth, March 2003 was a strong month for biotechs and a weak one for semiconductors.  Stocks that finished Feb 2003 particularly strongly, however, continued to gain in March.  Small caps were weak.

Feb 28:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Nothing particularly significant occured on the positive side of the ledger, though it's interesting to see that stocks with heavy insider ownership fared well today, the last day of the month.  Software stocks emerged with small gains, reversing a recent trend toward losses.

On the losing side, where the action was, volatile stocks lost as much as 1.8%.  Biotechs were weak.  Money-losing operations, as measured by p/e ratio, were burned.

The above trends are generally negative for the next session, though one should bear in mind that the beginning of a month tends to reverse the previous day's trends.

Feb 25:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Yearlong gainers were strong...up as much as 2.7%.  Given this, it's not surprising that oils gained nicely as well...up 2.3%.  Spurred on by surprisingly strong 4th quarter growth figures, some normally dowdy industries...transports, heavy machinery, etc...also gained in excess of 2%.

Software stocks actually lost around .2%, continuing yesterday's weakness.  Cheap stocks, small caps, and yearlong losers were weak.  Note, however, that semiconductors still managed to outperform despite the fact that many of these stocks have taken large hits over the last year.  February 2005 is shaping up as a strong month for this group.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though the lack of gains in volatiles makes us think that Monday's action might be a bit more sedate than one might imagine coming off a strongly positive Friday such as today. 

Feb 24:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.0%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Semiconductors bounced back from yesterday's losses...up 2.3%.  Stocks with large yearlong gains, a group that is largely devoid of semiconductors, also fared well...up 2%.  Volatiles in general were strong.

On the weak side, software stocks, REIT's, and non-volatiles appeared.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 23:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%, with losses focused strongly on semiconductors (-.8%) accounting for a good chunk of that spread.

Yesterday's big losers were strong today...up 1.6%.  Yearlong gainers were strong.  Oils gained nicely.

Outside of semiconductors, stocks with large yearlong losses were weak.  Lightly shorted and small cap stocks underperformed.

As with yesterday's session, we have some contradictory trends...the general gains today should be considered a positive for the next session, but the losses in volatile semiconductors aren't promising.

Feb 22:  Spurred on by sharp increases in oil prices, the Dow lost 1.6%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Despite the large losses, separation between groups was only 1.9%...stocks moved very much in lockstep.

Not surprisingly, oils were our strongest group.  Nevertheless, they couldn't resist losses...down .7%.  What is surprising is that semiconductors and their brethren were relatively strong, losing only around 1.1%.  Yearlong losers and stocks with low institutional ownership held up well.

REIT's lost 2.5%.  Heavily shorted stocks, those with nice gains over the last three months, big dividend payers, and mid-caps were weak.

The above trends offer contradictory clues as to the direction of tomorrow's market...on one hand, you've got strength in tech stocks (good news), but on the other you've got the large general losses to consider as well.  If pressed to offer an opinion, we'd look for a positive session tomorrow.

Feb 18:  The Dow gained .3%, while Nasdaq lost .1%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Oils topped our list of gainers today...up 1.6%.  As is usually the case in such situations, metals and mining were strong as well.  Wednesday's gainers were strong, as well as 1 month to 1 year winners.  

On the losing side, REIT's lost 1%.  Utilities were weak as well.  

Despite the aforementioned performances in the Dow and Nasdaq indices, non-volatiles were relatively weak.  We take this as a positive for the next session.

Feb 17:  The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

No groups actually walked away with from the session with gains, but REIT's came close...down around .1%.  Non-volatiles and expensive stocks fared well.

The big losers were topped by volatiles, dropping as much as 2.4%.  Cheap stocks, yearlong losers, Tuesday's big gainers, and semiconductors were all weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though we have noted that Friday's trading is sometimes less "connected" to that of previous sessions.

Feb 16:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%, with large gains focused in oils (+2.1%) accounting for a good chunk of that difference.

Outside of oils, yesterday's losers, and metals and mining were strong.

Stocks that have shown a good spike in volume in the last few days lost .6%.  Yearlong losers, communication stocks, and non-volatiles were weak as well.

Given the losses in non-volatiles, we'd say the trends are weakly positive for the next session.

Feb 15:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was again minimal...1.7%.

Stocks with large gains last Friday were the best group today...up 1.2%.  Volatiles, 1 month to 1 year losers, and semiconductors were strong.  The gains in 1 year losers are worth keeping in mind, as this reverses the broader trend toward losses in the group.

Banks, heavy manufacturers, and small caps were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 14  We've got our results for the first half of February.  Our own take on the general market has it up about 1.6%.

The results are interesting.  Semiconductors were our single strongest group...up about 6.5%.  Interesting, we say, because stocks with large yearlong losses were quite weak as a whole.  A good portion of semiconductors, of course, have suffered rather large losses over the last year.

Other strong groups included stocks that are strongly tied to the behavior of other stocks (a high "corr" indicator), oils, REIT's, and those with large losses in January.

On the weak side, stocks with large yearlong losses lost again, to the tune of about 2%.  Combining yearlong losses with a heavy short position resulted in considerably greater losses (the result is not shown in our tables).  Cheap stocks, volatile stocks in general, those that lost during the same period last year, biotechs, and stocks with negative earnings lost as well.

Note, for the umpteenth time, the give-and-take action between semiconductors and biotech.  If history holds out, this activity could well reverse in the second half of the month.  

Looking for historical periods that "match up" well to the current February, the first half of February 2003 works fairly well...strong performance in semiconductors, weak in volatiles and yearlong losers.  For what it's worth, the second half of February 2003 saw gains in healthcare, biotechs, one month winners, volatiles, and recent losers.  Small caps were weak.

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The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was a meager 1.8%.

Stocks with a small "mov_ave20" indicator were strong today.  This indicator is usually in close accord with stocks that have lost over the last month.  Utilities were strong.

Biotechs and healthcare stocks were weak, losing around .7%.  Despite the aforementioned figures in the Dow and Nas, small caps were relatively weak.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Feb 11:  The Dow gained .4%, while Nasdaq gained 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Semiconductors popped nicely...up 2.6%, after several recent losses.  Not surprisingly, volatile stocks and yearlong losers fared well as well.  Tuesday's winners were strong as well.

None of our groups actually lost money, but a number of retails were quite weak, reversing recent gains.  Non-volatiles, expensive stocks, and utilities also failed to jump on the bandwagon today.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

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We've added a section where we examine the behavior of the market according to the days of the week and days of the month.  Take a look.

Feb 10:  The Dow gained .8%, while Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was fairly wide...3.8%.

Oils were by far the best gaining group today...up 2%.  As is often the case, metals and mining tagged along the oils, gaining 1.4%.  Expensive stocks, and those with nice one month gains were also strong.

On the losing side, volatile stocks were burned...losses as large as 1.7% were seen.  Cheap stocks and recent to one month losers were weak as well.

The above trends are somewhat negative for the next session...we'd like to see volatiles leading the market.

Feb 9:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

REIT's were essentially flat for the day.  Big dividend payers, non-volatiles, and oils held up well in this ugly climate.

On the losing side, where the real action was, Friday's big winners were burned to the tune of 3.5%.  Volatile stocks in general were weak.  Though disappointing news from Cisco was featured in various daily market summaries, the action seemed less focused on a specific industry than on Friday's winners.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 8:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was a nice 2.8%, showing that profits could be had by investing in the right groups.

Semiconductors were the big gainers of the day...up 2%.  Cheap stocks, yearlong losers, and volatile stocks in general were also strong...all of these groups, of course, intersect strongly with semiconductors.

Biotechs were weak today, losing .8%.  Often times it seems that semiconductors gain at the expense of biotechs, and vice-versa.  

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 7:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was a relatively meager 1.9%.

Stocks with 1 month losses were relatively strong...up .8%.  A number of retails gained around .6%, continuing a surprisingly strong performance over the last couple of months.  Despite the losses in Nasdaq, volatile stocks in general were strong.

On the losing side, stocks with large recent to three month gains were weak...down as much as 1%.   Oils lost ground.

Despite the flatness in the major indices, the above trends are positive for the next session. 

Feb 5:  We've made some further observations on the unusual behavior of stocks in January 2005.  We've added still more comments on our January summary page.

Feb 4:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Semiconductors were the big winners of the day...up 3%.  Biotechs were also strong, as well as some dowdier industries like construction services.  Volatile stocks in general were strong.

On the weak side, stocks in our "business services" category were weak...up less than .4%.  In general, though, the trends on the negative side of our table were not particularly significant...no groups were strongly victimized.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 3:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Stocks trading well above their predominant resistance levels fared well today (up as much as .6%).  Those with heavy insider holdings continued to be strong.  Recent and one month winners continued upward.

On the losing side, volatile stocks (down as much as 1.9%), cheap stocks, yearlong losers, and semiconductors continued to get burned. 

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Feb 2:  The Dow was up .4%, Nasdaq up .3%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Oils were strong...up 1.6%.  Not surprisingly, stocks with large yearlong gains were up nicely as well.  A number of retails fared nicely, continuing January's relatively strong performance.

Nothing of great significance appeared on the losing side of our tables.  Stocks held by few institutions were weak...down .2%.  Banks were weak.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

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We've crunched our data for the second half of January.  The average stock gained about .75%.

A number of our proprietary indicators fared well in predicting gains as high as 4% during this period.  Outside these indicators, oils (3.5%) and stocks with strong yearlong gains (largely oils, actually), fared well.

On the losing side, stocks with large monthlong losses continued losing to the tune of 3.5%.  Cheap stocks, semiconductors, and volatiles were also weak.

As with yesterday's analysis of the full month of January, we really can't find any historical Jan second half that compares well to this one, so we'll refrain from that exercise.

Feb 1:  The first day of the month had the Dow up .6% and Nasdaq up .3%.  The month hardly began with a bang, as the difference between our best and worst groups was a mere 1.7%.

Stocks that finished January strongly gained around 1.2%.  Yearlong winners continued to win (+1.0%).  There seemed to be an emphasis on fundamentally sound stocks, with low p/e stocks performing nicely.

On the losing side, small caps lost as much as .4%.  Heavily shorted stocks, volatiles, techs, and yesterday's big winners were also weak.

Today's broad gains are a positive for the next session, but the weakness in volatiles would tend to counter that...we'll refrain from speculating on the direction of the next session.

************

We've got our full month results for the January.  Our non-weighted sampling of the Russell 3000 has the general market down about 4.3%.

The theme this month was a fairly radical reversal of usual January trends...semiconductors, a historically strong group, lost almost 13%.  Cheap stocks, our own January favorites, lost nearly 12%, while yearlong losers lost 11%.  Volatile stocks in general were weak.

Only a few groups managed to walk away from the month with gains.  Oils topped the list, with 1.5% gains.  Restaurants, a couple of retail groups, and utilities were essentially flat.  Large caps, and stocks with heavy insider holdings resisted losses nicely.

Looking for Januaries that match this one...there simply aren't any within the historical period we look at.  Two big questions:  1) why was this January so deviant?, and 2) what should we look for in February?

The first question requires some head-scratching.  The simple answer would be that the "January effect" is bunk to begin with, so one shouldn't be surprised if an upcoming January reverses some of the supposed trends of the month.  We find this explanation difficult to accept, given the statistical significance of some of these effects in our own tests.  Excluding that, one's got to wonder why the usual "tax loss selling" would actually reverse.

One explanation might be that a large number of yearlong losers and cheap stocks were semiconductors and tech stocks, which had longer term (over 1 year) gains.  In such a case, it wouldn't make sense to sell these stocks in December for the sake of tax writeoffs...better to sell them in the new year.  We'll be investigating this possible explanation in the days ahead.

As for the second question, our best guess is that we could see a "January effect" this February.  This is based on two thoughts.  First, if the above semiconductor-related explanation has merit, these groups are certainly oversold and likely to bounce back.  Secondly, February has historically had a habit of reversing January's patterns...just take a look at our historical charts, particularly where broad indices are concerned.

Jan 31:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Volatile stocks were strong today...up as much as 2.6%.  Cheap stocks, those with large yearlong gains, and Friday's losers were up nicely as well.

No groups actually lost money.  REIT's just squeaked by with .1% gains.  Non-volatiles in general were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

We'll release our end-of-month summaries before the next market session.

Jan 28:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq lost .6%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

REIT's led the handful of winners today...up .4%, coming back from a series of recent losses in the group.  Non-volatiles in general held up well.

On the losing side, Wednesday's big winners were beaten up to the tune of 1.7% losses.  Cheap stocks, volatiles, and one-month losers were weak as well.  No industry groups were featured in our losing tables.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  That session could prove interesting, as it's the last session for the month of January...the final session of a month, in our opinion, seems to offer clues as to the direction of the upcoming month. In particular, that session's losers often reverse course in the upcoming month.  We'll see.

Jan 27:  The Dow lost .3%, and Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Yearlong gainers led the pack, up 1.1%.  Not surprisingly, oils were close behind.  Large caps were strong.

On the losing side, stocks with a high "perceived risk" lost 1%.  REIT's were weak.  Tech stocks, cheap stocks, Tuesday's losers, and 1 to 3 month losers were all weak...something of a reversal of more general recent trends.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Due to technical problems, we'll upload our daily data file later...sometime before the next market session.

Jan 26:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Tech stocks topped our list of gainers...up 2.7%.  Monday's losers, and 1 to 3 month losers were also strong...these trends carry over from yesterday.  Volatile stocks fared well.

No groups actually lost money.  Weak groups included non-volatiles and banks (up as little as .3%).

The above trends are strongly positive for the next session.

Jan 25:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq .6%.  Our own non-weighted sampling of the Russell 3000 had the broad market up only .27%.  Separation between groups was a hefty 4%.

Stocks with recent losses led the winning groups, up as much as 2.4%.  One month losers were also strong.  Volatile stocks outperformed.  No industry groups were featured in our tables.

On the losing side, REIT's topped our list...losses of 1.6%.  The next closest group was those with high "pkurt" values (a proprietary indicator), with losses of .9%.  In other words, some aggressive selling was focused very specifically on REIT's.  Banks were also weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 24:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Utilities were one of the few groups that actually made money today...up .2%.  Oils were flat.  Non-volatiles resisted losses well...a rather typical outcome for a negative session....what's really interesting is when the session is negative, but volatile stocks actually hold up well.

On the losing side, where the action was, volatiles lost as much as 3%.  Stocks with large 1 to 3 month losses were weak, as were fundamentally unsound stocks and those with recent losses.  No industry groups showed up at all on the losing side of our tables!

The above activity signals that tomorrow, with a probability around 55%, is likely to be negative.

Jan 21:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was a relatively meager 1.9%.

Oils were our strongest group today, up .6%.  Other trends weren't particularly significant, though it should be noted that stocks with one month to one year gains were relatively strong today.  Volatile stocks held up better than might be expected in a negative session.

Yearlong losers tended to continue their losing streak, down as much as 1.2%.  No industry groups stood out today.

We'll refrain from speculating on the direction of Monday's market...the losses today are a negative, but the strength in volatiles counters that negativity.

Jan 20:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq was down 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Only a handful of groups managed to stay above water.  Leading the pack were stocks with large recent losses, which managed to sneak away with .1% gains.  Surprisingly, some tech groups had minimal losses (-.1%) on this negative day.  At the same time, non-volatiles also resisted losses well.  Stocks with increasing volume were strong.

On the weak side, stocks with large 3 month gains lost 1.9%.  Yearlong gainers were also weak...an interesting development, since the group has been quite strong of late, in a period when it "shouldn't" be.  Volatile stocks were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though we are encouraged by the fact that techs weren't beaten up as badly as one might expect on a day when the Nasdaq index lost 1.3%.  Today's strength in yearlong losers is also positive.

Jan 19:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq was down 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%, with two industry groups at the extremes of our winning and losing tables.

REIT's were the only winners today, gaining about .3%.  Oils held ground fairly well.  Non-volatiles and dividend-payers were relatively strong.

On the weak side, semiconductors lost 2.9%.  Given the performance of the group over the last 12 months, then, it's not surprising that yearlong and monthlong losers were quite weak as well.  Volatile stocks in general were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 18:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 1.8%.

Stocks with recent losses fared well today...up as much as 1.9%.  One month losers were strong as well.  Moderately (as opposed to wildly) volatile stocks gained in excess of the market.  No industry groups were seen in our tables of winning groups today.

None of the 1000+ groups we follow lost money today.  Stocks with strong recent performances gained as little as .2%.  Stocks with low insider holdings were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 15:  We've got our data for the first half of the month.  The average stock, according to our non-weighted sampling of the market, was down 5%.  Not a pretty sight.

Let's not beat around the bush...the activity we saw was quite anti-seasonal.  The groups you'd normally expect to gain around this time of year lost, and those that would be expected to show weakness resisted losses.

Before going into details about the first half of the month, we should point out that we recently added a couple new indicators that might appeal to "pair traders".  The idea, if you're not aware, is to identify stocks that seem to trade  "in sync".  One would expect, for example, that Pepsi and Coke would exhibit the same sort of responses to market effects, and thus their charts would be similar or "linked".  The pair trader looks for situations where these two stocks diverge.  If, say, Pepsi made a nice move up, and Coke didn't, the pair trader would short Pepsi and go long on Coke, expecting some sort of "reversion to the mean".

Our two new indicators are "corr" and "pair_dif".  We identify the stock that best matches the stock in question (out of about 2000 stocks), and output the "r" value that you'd get by using linear regression.  We call that value "corr".  We also output the % difference between those two stocks' performances over the period of time in question.  Thus if we were looking at the first half of January, the "pair_dif" figure would be the percentage difference between those two [strongly correlated] stocks in the last 10 days of December.  We could tinker with that time frame...but not in the near future.

The reason we mention these two indicators in the middle of a report on the market trends of the last two weeks is because one of them ("corr") wasted no time appearing near the top of a couple of our tables for the first half of January 2005.  It looks to be a potent indicator.

Now...not a single group gained during the period.  A number of groups resisted losses nicely, however.  Oils lost a mere 1.5%.  Stocks with heavy insider ownership lost less than 2%.  Expensive stocks, large-caps, and non-volatiles in general resisted losses.  A number of retails were strong.  

On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks with a low "corr" value were quite strong.  You might say that these stocks are those that march to the beat of their own drums...they don't correlate strongly with the performance of other stocks.  This result is quite odd because this group includes a nice helping of tech stocks...most of which had large losses over the period.  We'll be keeping a close watch on this indicator in the future, as it percolates into our data tables.

On the losing side, where the action was, semiconductors topped the list with 11.5% losses.  Volatile stocks, yearlong losers (largely semiconductors), cheap stocks, and those with histories of performing well in the period were weak as well.  After risk-adjustment, banks were disappointing.

The above trends really don't match up well with any previous first half of January, so we'll refrain from that exercise.  Our best guess is that the expected trends of January will reveal themselves in the near future.  We'd note that the last market session actually reversed some of the ugly trends of the last two weeks, so hope may be on the horizon.

Naturally, there's the question:  what happened to the usual trends?  One possible answer is that stocks that had big yearlong losses over 2004 tended to also have nice sized gains over the last two to three years.  In that case, it might still be prudent to wait until the new year to sell such stocks, to defer capital gains taxes.  Just a theory...we'll have to check it out.

Jan 14:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Volatile stocks were strong...up as much as 2.3%.  Recent and one month losers were strong.  Cheap stocks fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Banks and non-volatiles were weak, gaining only .3% or so.

The above trends are positive for the next (post holiday) session.

Jan 13:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Our list of best gaining stocks was topped by those trading well over their most prominent resistance levels...up .8%.  Not surprisingly, this statistic was followed closely by oils.  Stocks with nice recent gains, REIT's, and utilities also fared well.

On the losing side, stocks trading well under resistance levels lost as much as 1.6%.  Then, it's not surprising to see semiconductors losing nearly the same figure.  Small caps were again weak.  

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 12:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained about .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Oils led the pack today, up 1.7%.  Semiconductors were next, with gains of 1.5%.  Stocks with large monthlong losses (largely composed of semiconductors) fared nicely.  Yesterday's losers reversed.

On the losing side, smallcaps lost .6%.  Banks and REIT's lost .4%.  Stocks with low institional holdings were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 11:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

None of the groups we follow managed to stay above water, though oils nearly managed to pull it off...down .1%.  Non-volatiles and expensive stocks held up well.

On the losing side, volatile stocks lost as much as 2.9%.  Yearlong losers lost 2.6%.  Cheap stocks were weak.

Recent market behavior is definitely not what one would expect at this time of year, and has not been seen over the period for which we've kept data (the last 13 years or so).  We do expect these trends to turn around at some point in the next 1 to 3 weeks (based on the tendency of various seasonal charts to have inflection points in mid January to early February), but it would probably be wise to get some sort of "confirmation" before jumping into a basket of yearlong losers or cheap stocks...when yearlong losers rebound, the profits will be available over a period of weeks, not hours or days.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 10:  The Dow was up .2%, the Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was a mediocre 2.1%.

Friday's losers led the pack...up as much as 1.6%.  Yearlong gainers were strong.  A number of transportation-related stocks jumped nicely.  Biotechs were strong.

On the losing side, yearlong losers lost .5%.  Semiconductors were weak.  Cheap stocks and volatile stocks in general fared poorly.

Given the losses in volatile stocks and semiconductors, we'd say the above trends are somewhat negative for the next session.

Jan 7:  The Dow lost .2%, while Nasdaq lost .1%.  Our own broad sampling of the market, however, had it down .7%...small caps were weak today.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.  Interestingly, none of the top gainers or losers in our tables involved industry groups.  

Stocks with weak "momentum" led our list of gainers...up .4%.  One month losers and large caps were also strong.  None of these trends, however, were particularly significant in a statistical sense.

On the losing side, one finds small caps, cheap stocks, yesterday's winners, and stocks with low institutional holdings.

Again, one sees mixed results in the above trends, so we'll take a neutral stance on Monday's session.  Today's action tended toward reversals of some of the recent trends, so hopefully Monday's session can reverse the recent negativity.

Jan 6:  The Dow gained .2%, while Nasdaq lost .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%, with a couple of industries at the extremes of gains and losses.

Oils led the winners, up 1.5%.  Not surprisingly, then, yearlong gainers were strong as well.  Stocks with nice gains in the last month, however, were also strong...a group that doesn't include a lot of oils.

On the losing side were semiconductors, again.  Given the recent string of losses in this group, it's not surprising to see recent losers (via weak "momentum") in our list of losing stocks.  

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session (given the losses in semiconductors).

Jan 5:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained.  Large caps losses were minimal...around .4%.  Expensive stocks and non-volatiles in general resisted losses.

Due to concerns about inflation/interest rates, REIT's were victimized to the tune of 3.4% losses.  Yearlong losers, cheap stocks, volatiles, and stocks with strong histories of gains (!?) at this time of year also took substantial losses.

The above trends are again bearish for the next session.

Jan 4:  The Dow lost .9%, the Nasdaq 2.1%, with inflation worries at the root of the losses.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Non-volatiles lost as little as .6%.  Small caps were relatively strong.

On the negative side, semiconductors got burned to the tune of 4.1% losses.  Software stocks again managed to avoid the worst of the profit-taking, however.  Stocks with either large 3 month gains or 1 year losses got hurt (though, of course, semiconductors largely fit this description).

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 3:  While the Dow was down only .5%, and the Nasdaq down 1.1%, things were quite a bit nastier for particular groups.  Separation between groups was 2.8%...not monstrous, but quite a bit larger than anything we've seen for the last few weeks.

Trading could also be described as "confused".  For example, despite the fact that the market was strongly negative, software stocks were amongst the strongest performers, losing only .7%.  The best group to be in, though, was stocks with a very high Debt/Equity ratio (down .5%)...exactly the sorts of stocks one would expect to be victimized most on a negative day.  Small caps, stocks with weak institutional holdings, non-volatiles, and banks also had minimal losses.

On the negative side, where the action was, oils lost 3.2%.  Not surprisingly, then, stocks with large yearlong gains were also weak.  Stocks with strong 3 month gains were also quite weak...this group does not overlap with oils, but does overlap with semiconductors, which were weak (yet another sign of "confusion"...semiconductors got burned, but software stocks held ground nicely).  Stocks with nice gains at the end of December were weak.

The above trends are awfully ambiguous as predictors for tomorrow's market, so we'll refrain from any guesses.

Jan 1:  Our quarterly data is in.  According to our data, the period was up 13.3%.

Stocks with large third quarter losses top our list of gainers, up 29%.  Volatile stocks were strong in general.  Note, however, that no industry groups at all found their way into our non-risk-adjusted tables.  The gains this quarter were not so much about industry groups.

On the weak side of the tables, oils gained about 6%.  Non-volatile stocks in general were weak, though they actually performed quite well after risk-adjustment.  In other words, they lagged the market in general, but they still performed better than what one might expect in a positive environment such as this.  

*****************

We have our data for the full year 2004. The Russell 3000 gained 10%, and the Dow 3%.

The story of the year was oils, spurred on by turmoil in the Mideast, market forces, and the possible realization that supply will indeed peak before much longer.  The group gained 39%...going with volatile oils would have produced even higher gains.  Not far behind was metals and mining, with 36% gains.  Stocks that were rather weak in December 2003 fared nicely...note that this grouping does not include oils, which performed well in that period.  Note that stocks with poor finishes in December 2002, 2000, 1996, and 1995 performed nicely in the next year. 

On the weak side, semiconductors lost 18%.  Volatiles, stocks with big gains in 2003, and software were also weak. 

Cheap stocks, a group we always pay attention to for nice yearly gains, gained 12%...nothing spectacular.

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We've got our monthlong data for December.  Our own non-weighted sampling of the market has it up 3.7%.

Stocks that came into the month with large 3 month losses topped our list of gainers...up 12.5%.  One year losers gained 12.2%.  Cheap stocks were strong, particularly those that are volatile.  Junky stocks, as measured by high p/e ratios, fared well.  After risk-adjustment, large-caps performed well.

On the losing side, only oils showed a loss...down 1.7%.  Banks, and metals and mining were also weak, though they managed to eke out gains.  Stocks that came into December with nice gains over the last 5 to 60 days were weak.

In terms of matching December 2004 to historical Decembers, nothing seems to offer a decent fit.  2001 and 2003 showed gains in 3 month and yearlong losers, but also contradict some of the above trends.

Given the fact that we've already seen nice recent gains in yearlong losers and cheap stocks, one wonders about the prospects for a "January Effect".  Here, we should note that Dec 2003 saw nice gains in 1 year losers, while the group performed on par with the market in Jan 2004.  Dec 2001 saw nice gains in 3 month losers, while yearlong losers performed rather weakly in Jan 2002.  A tad of evidence that perhaps we shouldn't expect monster gains from yearlong losers in the next month.

*******************

As for the second half of December, it was up 1.7%.

Stocks with a large book value with respect to stock price gained about 4.5%...a rather odd result, though not particularly significant.  Stocks with losses over the last 1 month to 1 year fared well, as did cheap stocks.

On the losing side, nothing of any significance emerged...stocks with large gains over the last month were weak, as were stocks with low institutional holdings.  Banks were weak...the only industry group, in fact, that appeared in the tables for the period.

Dec 31:  We added a 3 year chart (2002-2004) of Dow performance to our page of 3 year charts.  Going back to 1970, the best resemblance would probably be the 1974-1976 period.  1977 was a lousy market year, though we wouldn't make too much of this observation.

Sorry about the quality of charts on that page...at some point we'll clean things up and try to be more consistent about presentation...but it's not a high priority at the moment.

**************

Trading on the last day of the year was extremely sedate, even in comparison with previous last days of the year.  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq lost .1%, and separation between groups came in at a miniscule 1.3%...as low as we've ever seen it.

Despite the lack of trading opportunities, some trends of significance manifested.  In particular, stocks with poor recent performances gained as much as .6%...weighed against the average stock, this trend was actually worth noting.  One month and three month losers were relatively strong.  Oils gained.

On the losing side, stocks with low institutional coverage were weak, losing as much as .7%.  Hmmm...why is it that our "institutional" indicators always seem to make appearances in our tables at the end of the month?  Expensive stocks were weak, as were those with strong recent performances.  Banks lost.

The above trends are neutral for the next trading session.  Given the new year, the upcoming weekend, and the directionless trading activity today, one wouldn't expect today's activity would have much effect on the next session anyway.

It's the end of the year...Happy New Year!  The next day or so will be a busy time for us, as we update our tests and seasonal summaries.  Stay tuned.

***************

About a month ago we began the process of adding a new section to our website whereby we would analyze the seasonal patterns of various industry groups, as opposed to the entire market.  We got sidetracked, and hope to get back on track with this feature next year.  We did, however, complete a report on the trading patterns of biotech stocks, and see no reason not to release it now.  Take a look.

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