Mar 31:   We've got our data for the second half of March.  The general market gained about 2% over this period.

The general trends over the period were quite similar to those for the month.  Cheap stocks led the way...up 7%.  Risky stocks fared well.  Small caps were strong.  Stocks that came into the month with large 3 month gains continued to gain.  Free agents fared well.

On the losing side, dividend payers dropped 1%.  Stocks we list as the least risky actually dropped a tad in value.  Utilities and REIT's underperformed.

The above trends match up decently with Mar h2 2002.  For what it's worth, the first half of April 2002 was flat.  Nice gains were available in several normally dowdy industries (e.g. retails gained 7%).  Yearlong losers were hurt.

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We've got our data for March.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.3%.

Monthlong trends pretty much mirrored first quarter trends (below).  On the winning side, risky stocks gained better than 11%.  Cheap stocks were up 10%.  Volatile stocks fared well.  Stocks trading well above their 100 day moving averages continued upward.  Semiconductors fared well.

Only two groups walked away with losses...utilities dropped about 1%, while health care stocks fell about .5%.  Biotechs were weak.  Large caps, dividend-payers, and non-volatiles round out the list.

The above trends are fairly typical for March (gains in cheap stocks and volatiles, weakness in biotechs), so one would expect April to unfold in standard fashion.

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We've got our data for the first quarter of the year.  We have the general market up about 11%.

Winners were led by the "riskiest" of stocks...up 28%, followed very closely by cheap stocks (also 28%).  Volatile stocks were strong in general.  Electronic instruments and scientific products were strong.  Stocks with a recent history of weakness in this time slot reversed...bear in mind that last year's first quarter produced some rather anomalous  performances. .  Metals and mining stocks gained nicely.  REIT's fared well after risk-adjustment. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Banks were weak...up 3%.  Utilities were unimpressive.  Large caps and non-volatiles underperformed. 

The above trends are quite typical of first quarters in general.  As such, one would tend to expect the second quarter to evolve in typical fashion as well.

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The Dow lost .4%, while the Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Small caps led the way, gaining as much as 1.6%.  Cheap stocks fared well.  Recent losers reversed.  Volatile stocks were strong in general.  It's interesting to note that no industry groups were included in our "top gainers" column...other forces were at work today.

On the losing side, large caps were weakest....down .7%.  Oils suffered.  Expensive stocks lost money.

The small-cap/large-cap dichotomy was quite pronounced today...not only did the highest decile (the 10th) of capitalization produce our biggest losers, but the 9th and 8th deciles were included as losers as well.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 30:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%. 

Volatile stocks led the way today...up 1.4%.  Cheap stocks gained nicely.  Stocks with large losses over the last month reversed. 

On the losing side, REIT's lost 1.3%.  A number of basic industries were weak, as the Dow figure might indicate.  Dividend payers underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 29:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Winners were led by stocks that took large losses yesterday...up 2.8%.  Semiconductors, having taken large losses yesterday, gained 2.6%.  Metals and mining stocks were strong as well.  Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels were strong.  Volatile stocks fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Non-volatiles were weak...up .4%.  Stocks with a weak performance over the last week or so failed to keep pace with the overall market.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 28:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%, with a couple of industries leading winners and losers.

Oils led the way today...up .9%.  REIT's fared well as well...up .6%. Despite the losses in the Dow, expensive stocks actually finished the day on the positive side. 

Semiconductors led losers...down 1.3%.  Cheap stocks were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 27:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.4%.

Despite the small gap between our best and worst performing groups, the tendency for stocks with large monthlong gains to continue to gain was significant.  The group gained .8%.  Thursday's and Friday's gainers were strong.  Metals and mining stocks outperformed.

On the losing side, medical device makers were weak...down .6%.  REIT's lost ground.

The above trends are neutral for the next market session, though the end of the month, of course, tends to produce better-than-average gains.

Mar 24:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Semiconductors led the way today...up 1.9%.  Stocks that have been weak in this time slot over the last three years reversed.  Small caps fared well.  Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels gained nicely.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the losing side.  REIT's lost money...not surprisingly then, big dividend payers were weak as well.  Non-volatiles were weak. 

The above trends bode well for the next session.

Mar 23:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Oils topped our list of winners...up 1.4% today.  Yearlong losers were strong (a group of which oils definitely aren't part).  Stocks that performed weakly this time last year reversed.  Semiconductors fared well.

Despite the gains in oils, yearlong winners were our weakest group....down .6%.  Transportation-related stocks were weak.  Non-volatiles underperformed...somewhat unusual in a losing session. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 22:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Stocks that had strongly underperformed against their best "trading pair" on Tuesday led the way today...up 2%.  Tuesday's losers in general were strong today.  Yearlong losers were also strong.  Oils gained nicely.  Volatiles outperformed.

We only identified one group that lost money today...those with a big difference between Monday's close and Tuesday's open...down .2%.  Stocks with nice gains in the last week were weak.  Free agents underperformed.  Yesterday's big winners were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 21:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

We only identified a single group that gained today...stocks with particularly strong volume yesterday...up .1%.  "Free agents" walked away with minimal losses.  Large caps and non-volatiles fared well.

On the losing side, biotechs dropped 1.9%.  Stocks with particularly weak volume yesterday fared poorly.  Stocks trading well below their most prominent resistance levels were weak.  Small caps were hurt.  Banks were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 20:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%, driven by strongly focused losses in oils.

Once again, nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of our tables.  Stocks with a high cash/share figure were strong.  Semiconductors outperformed.  Stocks with nice gains over the last three months were strong as well.

Oils were hurt...down 1.9%.   REIT's were weak as well.  Stocks with large losses over the last three months continued downwards.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 17:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Again, nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Entertainment-related stocks gained 1.1%. 

On the losing side, yesterday's big losers continued to slide...down .9%.  Monthlong losers were weak as well.  Oils underperformed.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Mar 16:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq lost .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.8%, driven by some industry-specific losses.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side.  Heavily shorted stocks fared well...up as much as 1.5%.  Oils, REIT's, and heavy industry gained nicely.  Stocks with low recent volume outperformed.

Losses were led by semiconductors...down 2.4%.  The losses were quite specific...the next closest group (stocks with large 3 month gains) lost a mere .9%.  Naturally, volatile stocks were weak.

The above trends are mildly negative for the next session.

Mar 15:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Transport-related stocks topped our list of gainers today...up 1.8%.  Cheap stocks, yearlong losers AND yearlong winners, and REIT's gained nicely.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Small caps were a bit weak.  Biotechs did not participate in today's gains to any great extent.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

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We've got our data for the first half of the month.  Our own take on the market had it up about .6%. 

Our strongest group was computer peripherals, gaining about 4.2%.  Yearlong winners were strong.  REIT's fared well after risk-adjustment. 

On the weak side, stocks with large yearlong losses continued sliding...down as much as 3%.  The most volatile 4% of stocks showed losses over the period.  Utilities were quite weak when risk was factored in.

The general tendency for yearlong winners to be strong, and losers to be weak, is not unusual for this period.  March h1 2005, 03, 00, 97, and 95 show parallels.  For what it's worth, the general tendency in March h2 of those years was for yearlong losers to continue losing....one should not expect a reversal at this time.

Mar 14:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was again 1.9%.

Stocks whose movements are highly-correlated with the movements of other stocks topped our list of gainers today...up 1.9%.  Just behind these stocks we find oils...not surprising, as oils are prone to move in unison.  Semiconductors fared well...an interesting sign, since oils and semiconductors have largely been at odds over the last year or so.  Stocks trading well over their predominant resistance levels continued upwards.

We only identified one group that actually lost money today (-.01% !)...stocks with large yearlong losses.  Cheap stocks were weak.   Despite the nice move in the Nasdaq index, small caps actually underperformed.   Free agents were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 13:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .2%.  Separation between groups was again small...1.9%.

Only two trends of significance emerged today.  On the positive side, oils gained 1.3%, outdistancing the second best trend (stocks trading well above their 20 day averages...up .9%) by a good margin.

On the negative side, REIT's fell .6%.  Cheap stocks and small-caps were generally weak.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Mar 10:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.7%.

Wednesday's big losers were our strongest group today...up 1.8%.  Metals and mining stocks gained nicely.  Small caps fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Non-volatiles in general were weak.  "Free agents" fared poorly.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 9:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.0%.

REIT's topped our list of gainers...up .6%.  Free agents fared well. 

On the losing side, stocks with high recent volatility dropped as much as 1.4%. Stocks with a tendency to gain in the afterhours were hurt.  Stocks that were strong this time last year reversed.  Banks were weak.  Stocks with high yearlong gains underperformed. 

The above trends are negative for the next session, bearing in mind that Friday, more so than other days of the week, has a way of reversing the previous day's trends.

Mar 8:  The Dow gained .2%, while the Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.7%.

Last Thursday's losers were our strongest group today...up 1%.  Again, stocks with high recent volatility fared well.  Drug stocks were strong.

On the losing side, stocks with a recent tendency to gain in the afterhours reversed...down .7%.   Transportation-related stocks were weak.  Stocks with large yearlong gains lost.  Stocks that gained nicely in this time slot last year reversed. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 7:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq lost .7%.  Separation between groups was 3.4%.

Despite the fact that the Dow gained, we didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  The best of the lot was simply non-volatiles, which lost about .1%.  Banks avoided large losses.

On the losing side, we have stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels...down as much as 3.5%.  These losses are quite significant in a statistical sense.  Yesterday's big losers were weak again.  Semiconductors dropped around 2.7%.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 6:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was a big 4.5%, with selective losses in oils accounting for a large chunk of that difference.

On the positive side, REIT's gained nicely...up 1.2%.  Despite the negative general market, stocks with high recent volatility actually fared well...up .4%.  "Free agents" managed to eke out gains.

On the negative side, we have the aforementioned oils down 3.3%.  The other trends we see in our losing column are all effects of the losses in oils...e.g. losses in big yearlong gainers, losses in stocks with a high "corr" statistic, etc.

The above trends are mixed for tomorrow's market...the general losses are negative in themselves, but the tendency for volatile stocks to hang in there in this environment is encouraging.

Mar 3:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Stocks trading well above their 100 day average topped our list of gainers...up 1.2%.  Cheap stocks were strong.  Volatile stocks actually managed some nice gains in this slightly negative environment.  Stocks that were strong in this time slot last year were strong yet again.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Heavily shorted stocks were weak.

The above trends are mixed as predictors of the next session...given the gains in volatiles, we'd lean toward a positive session.

Mar 2:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Monday's big losers topped today's gainers...up 1%.  Oils and metals and mining were strong.  Stocks that have underperformed their best trading partners bounced back.  Yearlong winners fared well.

On the negative side, stocks of low institutional ownership were weak...down as much as 1.5%.  Yearlong losers underperformed.  Banks were soft.

The above trends are mixed as predictors of the next session's direction.

Mar 1:   The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Semiconductors bounced back from weakness yesterday...up 3.6%.  Volatiles and yearlong winners (definitely not a group that overlaps with semiconductors) were strong. 

On the weak side, utilities barely broke even...up .2%.  Yearlong losers and non-volatiles were weak. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

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We've got our data for the second half of February.  We have the market up about 2.6% over the period, coming back from early month losses.

Risk-taking seemed to pay off over the last two weeks...stocks with low profit margins, and high or negative p/e ratios gained nicely...up as much as 7%.  Biotechs were strong.  Volatile stocks outperformed.

On the weak side, semiconductors narrowly avoided a loss...up about .1% over the period.  Note that volatile stocks in general were strong, despite weakness in this volatile group.  Oils just managed a gain as well.  Large caps were weak.

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We've got our data for the month of February.  Our own take on the market had it up .3%.

Industries led winners and losers.  On the winning side, biotechs jumped about 6.3%.  Yearlong losers outperformed the market.  Stocks that had been underperforming their best trading partners reversed.

Losers were dominated by oils...down 10.5%.  Stocks that have a history of strength in this time slot reversed.   Yearlong winners were weak. 

We don't see strong resemblances between this February and any other historic February.  Feb 1994 might be the best match.  For what it's worth, March of 94 lost about 3%.  Nevertheless, volatiles, small caps, and cheap stocks outperformed.

Feb 28:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was only 1.7%...despite the relatively large losses, stocks tended to move as a unit.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained.  Free agents held up well...down .4%.  Non-volatiles were strong.  Retails and REIT's had minimal losses. 

The largest losers of the day were biotechs, reversing nice gains in the previous session down...2.1%.  Again, stocks that performed poorly in this time slot last year repeated the performance.  Stocks with nice gains over the last year underperformed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 27:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was a big 3.5%.

Biotechs led the way on the winning side...up 1.8%.  Volatile stocks fared well.  Stocks with nice gains over the last month continued to gain.

On the losing side, oils plopped 1.6%.  Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot repeated the pattern. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 24:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

Oils were strong today...up 1.4%.  Naturally, then, yearlong winners and monthlong losers outperformed.  Volatile stocks gained nicely.

On the losing side, REIT's lost .5%.  Yearlong losers dropped.  Semiconductors were weak.   Small caps underperformed.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Feb 23:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

No significant trends emerged today...a truly meandering session.  On the positive side, stocks with short term averages well above longer term averages fared well...up .8%.  Free agents gained.  3 month gainers were relatively strong. 

On the weak side, yesterday's losers continued to lose.

The above trends don't really give much of a signal as to the direction of the next session, so we'll refrain from making a guess.

Feb 22:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Stocks with a high "leadership" statistic gained 1.7%.  Banks were strong.  Stocks with a low "afterhours statistic" gained nicely, reversing yesterday's trend toward losses in that group. 

Oils dropped 1.4%, erasing yesterday's gains.  The next closest group lost only .5%.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though not overwhelmingly so...we'd like to see more evidence of gains in particularly volatile stocks.

Feb 21:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Despite the general losses, some groups made nice gains.  Stocks with strong tendencies to gain in recent afterhours sessions gained 1.6%.  The trend was quite significant.  Oils gained.  Recent losers reversed.

On the negative side, semiconductors were hit...down 1.5%.  Stocks with a recent tendency to lose in the afterhours sessions dropped further.  Recent winners reversed.  Biotechs were weak.  Small caps floundered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 17:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 1.8%.

Utilities jumped .8%.  Oils were strong as well.  Wednesday's losers outperformed.  Dividend payers finished in positive territory.

Yesterday's big losers continued to lose...down 1.0%.  Wednesday's big winners reversed.  Small caps underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session...the emphasis on dividend payers and the losses in small caps shows a shift away from risk-taking.

Feb 16:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Oils bounced back from recent losses...up 2.4%.  Stocks that performed well in this time slot last year were strong yet again.  Volatile stocks outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Retails were weak...up .2%.  "Free agents" failed to make any significant gains.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though one should bear in mind that Friday is the most likely day for a reversal to occur.

Feb 15:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Stocks with big gains last Monday or Thursday led the way today...up 1.7%.  Biotechs were strong.  Volatiles in general fared well.  Yearlong losers outperformed.

Oils continued sliding...down .5%.  Large caps, non-volatiles, and expensive stocks all underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 14:  We've got our data for the first half of February.  By our own take, the market lost about 1% over this two week stretch.

One of our proprietary indicators ("vave") predicted gains as high as 2.2% with decent significance.  Stocks with large losses on the last day of January fared well.  Non-volatiles outperformed.  Retails were strong.  Yearlong losers rebounded.

Oils were clearly the big losers over the period...down 10.5%.  The losses were quite significant, so most of the other losses in the table were consequences of the losses in oils.  For example, yearlong gainers were quite weak. 

We didn't find any historical Feb h1's that matched up extraordinarily well with this most recent period.  We do note that gains in retails are fairly typical...if historical trends hold, the gains in retails will likely continue.  Stocks with recent weak performances shouldn't be expected to reverse.

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The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs yesterday topped our list of gainers...up 2.2%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month reversed.  Transportation-related issues fared well.  Small caps outperformed.

Only one group actually lost money...oils, down .1%.  Utilities were weak.  Non-volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 13:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq 1.0%.   Separation between groups was 2%.

We only identified one group that actually gained...stocks with large yearlong losses managed a .1% gain.  Stocks with nice recent gains, small caps, REIT's, and dividend payers managed to avoid large losses.

On the losing side, last Tuesday's big losers lost 1.9%.  The losses were quite significant, statistically speaking.  The next group down, metals and mining, lost 1.7%.  Stocks with large recent losses or large yearlong gains were weak.

The above trends are neutral to slightly negative for the next session.

Feb 10:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .3%.  We actually had the market losing .1%...small caps were weak.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Banks were strong...up .6%.  Biotechs also outperformed.  Despite the gains in the general indices, non-volatiles actually outperformed volatile issues.  Dividend payers fared well.

On the losing side, stocks trading well over their major resistance levels were weak, losing as much as 1.3%.  Semiconductors were weak.  Yesterday's big gainers reversed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 9:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq lost .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Cheap stocks led the way today...up .9%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month or year were strong.  Volatile stocks outperformed.

On the losing side, oils continued to drop...down 2.3% today. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 8:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1%.  Separation between groups was 1.8%.

Semiconductors were strong...up 1.5%.  Stocks that performed well at this time last year repeated their performance.  Stocks with large losses over the last one to three months outperformed.

On the losing side, the smallest of small caps lost .3%.  Cheap stocks were weak.  Oils continued yesterday's losing ways. 

The above trends are positive for the next session, though we'd like to have seen small caps play a bigger role in the gains of the day.

Feb 7:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was a big 4.5%, with losses in oils the cause.

Just a few groups finished in positive territory.  Broadcasting and computer service stocks were relatively strong...up .2%.  Utilities were flat.  Non-volatiles held their ground.

On the losing side, oils plopped 4.3%.  Metals and mining stocks were weak as well, as might be expected. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 6:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Metals and mining stocks were our strongest group...up 2.1%.  Oils followed at 1.5%.  Volatile stocks, and those with nice gains over the last 3 months to one year were strong.

Stocks with particularly weak volume over the last 2 weeks were poor...down .5%.  Biotechs and medical technology stocks were weak.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to 3 months underperformed.

The above trends are rather mixed as predictors of the direction of the next session.

Feb 3:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .8%.  Our own take on the market had it down a bit under .4%.  Separation between groups was a measly 1.7%.

Stocks with Thursday high values well above their closing values led the way...up .4%.  Stocks with nice increases in volume over the last few weeks (versus the last three months) held their ground.  Heavy industry avoided losses.

On the losing side, yearlong losers were weak...down 1.1%.  Stocks that were weak this time last year continued to be weak. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 2:  The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

One a handful of groups actually gained today.  Yearlong losers gained as much as .2%.  Monthlong losers were also relatively strong.  Volatile stocks actually squeaked out some gains.  Retails were flat.

Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels were weak, losing as much as 2%.  Oils were weak.  Yesterday's big gainers reversed.

The above trends are negative, though one should bear in mind that Fridays have a way of reversing the previous day's trends.

Feb 1:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Volatile stocks gained as much as 1.6%.  Cheap stocks and semiconductors weren't far behind.  Tuesday's losers bounced back.

On the losing side, oils lost 1.2%.  Not surprisingly then, stocks with a high "corr" value were weak.  Stocks with nice gains at the end of January reversed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

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We've got our data for the second half of January.  Our own take on the market had it up about 3%.

Metals and mining stocks finished the month with a bang...up over 9%.  Yearlong losers fared well over the period, bouncing back from weakness in early January.  Cheap stocks and volatile stocks continued to perform well.

We didn't identify any groups that lost money over the period, though some were rather flat...utilities, non-volatiles, and large caps were weak.

The above behavior is not unusual for late January.  Eyeballing our data tables, though, 2001 seemed to match up particularly well.  For what it's worth, in the first half of Feb 2001 small caps and cheap stocks continued to fare well.  Retails found themselves in the limelight as well.

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We've got our data for the month of January.  Our own take on the market had it up 7.3%.

Cheap stocks were our strongest group...up 18.5%.  Semiconductors followed closely behind.  Fundamentally weak stocks (as measured by p/e ratio or profit margin) gained nicely.  Stocks that performed poorly in December rebounded.  Oils and metals and mining were strong, particularly after risk-adjustment.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Banks were weak...up 2%.  Non-volatiles and dividend-payers failed to gain much ground. 

The above trends, of course, are quite typical for January.  Given last year's reversal of the usual trends, we're rather relieved to see seasonality back on course.  Given these stereotypical trends, one would expect a stereotypical February...in that case, one would expect some of January's trends to reverse...frequent traders should take note.

Jan 31:   The Dow lost .3%, while Nasdaq was flat.  Our own take on the market had it up .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Biotechs led the way today...up 1.4%.  Cheap stocks, volatiles, small caps, and "free agents" were also strong.  Yesterday's gainers outperformed.

On the weak side, semiconductors lost about 1%.  Large caps underperformed.  Stocks with losses over the last month continued downwards.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Jan 28:  The Dow lost .1%, while Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%. 

Oils led the way again, by a hefty margin...up 1.6%.  Outside of other groups with a large concentration of oils (e.g. yearlong gainers), one also sees that volatile stocks generally fared well. 

On the losing side, bank stocks were weak...down 1%.  Despite the "strength" in the Nasdaq, small-caps and stocks of low institutional ownership were generally weak.

The above trends lean toward positivity in the next session.

Jan 27:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .9%.  Our own take on the market had it up only .5%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

Oils topped our list of winners today...up 1.4%.  Metals and mining were strong.  Naturally, yearlong gainers fared well.

On the losing side, stocks with big gains on Wednesday dropped .5%.  Banks and semiconductors managed only slight gains.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Jan 26:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq 1.0%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks that were strong this time last year were our strongest group today...up 2.6%.  Volatile stocks and yearlong gainers followed.  Semiconductors were strong. 

Non-volatiles were our weakest group...up as little as .2%.  Utilities were weak.  Large caps underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though we note that the market has been a bit wishy-washy for the last few weeks...gains have followed losses, and vice-versa.  Note also the Friday is the most likely day for a reversal of the previous day's trends.

Jan 25:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was 3.4%.

Though we saw gains as high as 1.7% in a particular group, the levels of significance were unimpressive.  Stocks with large increases in volume yesterday fared well...up 1.5%.  Retails were strong.  Stocks with yearlong losses fared well.

Losers were dominated by oils...down 1.7%.  Naturally, then, yearlong winners were weak.  Utilities fared poorly.   Stocks with a long-term history of strength in this time slot underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Jan 24:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Metals and mining were strong today...up 2.6%.  Volatile stocks fared well.  Semiconductors outperformed.  Stocks with nice gains over the last 3 months were strong.

On the weak side, stocks with large losses over the last few weeks to months continued to slide.  Large caps and non-volatiles emerged with minimal gains.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 23:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.8%.

Oils gained nicely today...up 1.4%.  Stocks with nice gains last week fared well.  On the other hand, Friday's big losers were also strong. 

On the losing side, biotechs were weak...down .3%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month continued to lose.  Volatile stocks in general were weak.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Jan 20:  The Dow lost 2%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Our own take on the market had it down only 1.4%...large caps were especially weak.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Oils were the only group that stayed above water today...up .1%.  The behavior of one oil is generally strongly linked to the behavior of other oils, so stocks that tend to trade as groups (a high "corr" statistic), were strong as well.  However, stocks that trade as "free agents" (a low "corr" stat) were strong as well.  Last Tuesday's big gainers held up well.  Non-volatiles in general avoided the heat.

Semiconductors were burned today, reversing the big gains yesterday...down 3.6%.  Losers on Monday and Tuesday tended to lose again today.

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Jan 19:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq 1.0%.  Separation between groups was a big 3.9%.

Semiconductors walked away from the session with 4.1% gains.  Oils were a distant second...up 2.7%.  Stocks with nice yearlong gains moved upwards.  Volatiles in general fared well.

Non-volatiles were weak, gaining as little as .2%.  Stocks with large increases in volume thus far this year underperformed.  Banks were weak.  Biotechs failed to advance to any great degree.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 18:   The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq 1%.  Our own take on the market had it flat...small caps fared well.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Despite the losses in the major indices, you could have gained 1% today by going with stocks that had taken a beating over the last 5 days or so.  Stocks with losses over the last month to three months also fared well. 

On the losing side, oils dropped 1.2%.  Stocks with nice gains yesterday reversed.  The cheapest 4% of stocks were weak...but so were the most expensive 10%. 

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

***********

We've got our data for the first half of the month.  Our own take on the market had it up about 4%.

The usual January trends have played out quite nicely so far.  Cheap stocks find themselves at the top of our winning tables...up about 10.5%.  Semiconductors fared well.  Stocks with a history of strong gains in the period continued their strength.  Fundamentally weak stocks outperformed.  The only reversal of the usual patterns was in oils.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money, though some were quite weak.  A number of retails fared poorly.  Dividend payers in general were weak.  Stocks with nice late-December momentum reversed.  Banking stocks fared poorly.

Looking for historical matches, the above behavior can be found in any number of Jan h1's.  Given no better information, then, one would expect a typical Jan h2...continued strength in the general market, though with less of a flavor of rampant bullishness.

Jan 17:  Both the the Dow and Nasdaq lost .6%.  Separation between groups was 3.4%.

Oils were by far the strongest group today...up 1.9%.  The next closest group, stocks whose motions are strongly correlated with the motions of other stocks, was up only .7%.  Yearlong gainers (largely oils), metals and mining, and utilities were strong.

On the losing side, volatile stocks were weakest...down 1.6%.  Yearlong losers lost some more.  1 month to 3 month losers were weak as well.  Tech stocks dropped.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 13:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq were flat.  Separation between groups was again small...1.9%.

Stocks that closed near their lows yesterday topped our list of gainers today...up 1.2%.  Monday's losers were strong.  Oils gained.  Small caps and cheap stocks outperformed.  Stocks that performed poorly this time last year outperformed this time around.

On the losing side, REIT's were hurt...down .8%.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Jan 12:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.7%. 

Stocks with big gains last Monday gained .4%.  Those with nice volume increases over the last two weeks managed to pull off gains.  Recent winners in general, and stocks that performed strongly at this time last year were also featured.  Cheap stocks managed to hold ground.  Despite the negative market, volatile stocks held up well.

Transportation-related businesses were weak...down 1.3%.  Stocks with large 3 month gains dipped

The above trends are neutral for tomorrow's market...the general losses are a negative sign, but we like the strength in volatile issues.

Jan 11:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.0%.

Cheap stocks led the way today...up 2.2%.  Semiconductors were strong.  Volatile stocks in general fared nicely.  Stocks with weak fundamentals outperformed.

On the losing side, banks dropped....down .7%.  Oils and metals and mining were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 10:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Stocks with weak performances in this time slot over the last three years led the way today...up 1.6%.  Volatile stocks were strong.  Cheap stocks and small caps fared well.

Stocks with large losses over the last three months fell about .3%.  Recent losers continued to lose.  Large caps were weak.

It's interesting to note that industry groups were entirely absent from our tables of winning and losing groups today.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 9:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

Construction stocks led the way today...up 1.9%.  Stocks with large 3 month gains continued upwards.  Both semiconductors and biotechs were strong...a sign of bullishness.  Small caps fared well.

On the losing side, utilities were flat.  Non-volatiles, oils, and banks lagged. 

The above trends are bullish for the next session.

Jan 6:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels led the pack today...up as much as 2.2%.  Biotechs, cheap stocks, and oils followed.

No groups actually lost money today.  Stocks trading below prominent resistance levels were weak.  Stocks that were weak this time last year continued their weakness.  Banks failed to move forward to any great degree.  Stocks with low institutional holdings underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 5:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.7%.

Both winners and losers were dominated by industry groups today.  On the winning side, semiconductors popped a nice 2.6%.  Cheap stocks were the second best group with mere 1.6% gains.  Volatiles, those with nice gains in this same time period over the last three years, and those with strong momentum also fared well.

On the losing side, oils lost 1.1%.  Utilities, expensive stocks, and non-volatiles in general came up losers. 

We particularly like the phenomenon of gains in volatiles, and losses in non-volatiles.  It suggests that money is actually being pulled out of non-volatiles, into the volatiles.  The above trends are bullish for the next session.

Jan 4:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.8%, following yesterday's big number.

Stocks trading well above their prominent resistance levels topped our list of gainers today...up 1.8%.  Volatile stocks and semiconductors had nice gains.  Again, stocks that were weak this time last year were strong today.

Small caps broke even today.  Utilities and non-volatiles in general were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 3, 2006:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Separation between groups was a big 4.3%.

Oils started the year with a bang...up 3.7%.  Metals and mining stocks weren't far behind.  Naturally, then, 2005's big gainers fared well.  Semiconductors were strong.  Stocks that got burned at this time last year were strong...an interesting observation.

Despite the positivity, some groups actually walked away with losses.  Stocks with strong momentum in late December reversed.  Small caps lagged.  Free agents were weak.  Retails underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 31 (Sat):  We've got our data for the second half of December.  The general market lost about 1.2% over the period.

The strongest group was stocks that trade as "free agents"...the group gained 2.3%.  The gains were especially strong after risk-adjustment.  Stocks with high early December volatility were strong.  Stocks with nice momentum continued to gain.  Metals and mining outperformed. 

On the weak side, banks stocks capped off a poor year with continued losses, while oils capped off a very strong year in the same fashion...down a big 4.5% in a 10 day span.  Stocks with low institutional holdings were weak.  Heavily shorted stocks underperformed.

The period resembles that of Dec h2 2002.  For what it's worth, January 2003 was a textbook example of the "January effect"...nice gains in yearlong losers, cheap stocks, volatiles, and semiconductors. 

Dec 30:   We've got our data for the year.  The Russell 3000 gained  4%, while the Dow dipped -1%. 

As with last year, oils topped all other groups of stocks.  The gains were a bit more modest this time...+29% for the year.  Stocks that trade as "free agents" (with little correlation to the motions of other stocks) were strong, as is often the case...this group did not included oils to any large extent.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best "trading partners" in December were strong. 

On the weak side, stocks with low institutional holdings lost 4%.  Semiconductors finished the year with a loss, despite a nice 4th quarter comeback.  December losers continued to lose.  After risk-adjustment, non-volatiles underperformed.   Banking stocks were generally weak.

***********

We've got our data for the fourth quarter.  We have the general market up just a tad...about 1.3%.  You have to go all the way back to 1997 to find a losing fourth quarter.

Retails were the strongest group...up about 8%.  Semiconductors were strong.  Stocks with large Q3 losses reversed, though stocks with nice gains in September fared well as well.

Losers were topped by oils...down 7.5%.  Utilities were weak, particularly after risk-adjustment.  Heavily shorted stocks lost.

We don't see strong resemblances between this fourth quarter and any particular previous one.

************

We've got our data for December.  By our own reading, the general market was flat over the period.

A number of our proprietary indicators predicted gains as high as 4.5% for the period.  Outside of these, stocks with large losses in November bounced back with gains around 3.5%.  Stocks with strong performances in this period last year continued their strength.  Metals and mining stocks were strong after risk-adjustment.

On the losing side, stocks with large gains in November lost as much as 3%.  Banks were weak, particularly after risk adjustment.  Heavily shorted stocks lost. 

Looking for historical matches, Dec 2001, 2002, and 2004 match up fairly well.  Unfortunately, January 2002, 2003, and 2005 show disparate trends...2002 and 2003 offered nice "January effects", via gains in cheap stocks, volatile stocks, and semiconductors, but those issues were clobbered in January of 2005.

***********

Both the Dow and Nasdaq finished the final trading day of the year with a .6% loss.  Separation between groups was 1.8%.

Stocks that are simultaneously cheap and volatile (a high "perceived risk" indicator) led the way today...up .8%.  Cheap stocks, "free agents", and those with large losses over the last three months to year, outperformed.  No industry groups didn't appear in our list of winners.

On the losing side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Banks were weak...down 1%.  Stocks that performed weakly this time last year were weak yet again. 

The above trends are neutral for the next session...the trends are fairly positive in and of themselves, but the general losses in today's market counterbalance those trends.  We'd also note that these trends are quite typical of the last day of the year.

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