Mar 31 (Sat):   We've got our data for the first quarter of 2007.  Our own take on the market had it up about 2%.  On the whole, the quarter was rather listless...no particular groups of stocks stood out from the pack in terms of big gains or losses.

A couple of our proprietary indicators pointed to gains as high as 8.3%.  Outside of those, stocks with a losing first quarter in 2006 tended to reverse nicely.  Software stocks quietly outperformed...up nearly 8%.  Metals and mining stocks were strong.  Utilities fared well, particularly after risk-adjustment.

Banks led our list of Q1 losers...down as much as 7.5%.  Stocks that finished 2006 with a series of losses tended to continue losing.  Stocks with poor performances in 2006 continued stumbling.

The above trends don't match up particularly well with any Q1's over the last 25 years, so we won't bother to make any comparisons.

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We've got our data for March.  Our own take on the market has it eking out a gain of about .3% for the period.

As usual, oils outperformed in March...up nearly 4%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last month to year were strong.  Utilities were particularly strong after risk-adjustment.

On the negative side, stocks with negative p/e ratios were hit...down nearly 4%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to year were hurt.  Insurance companies and banks were weak, particularly after risk-adjustment.  Volatiles fared poorly.

Historically, March 1993 matches up fairly well with the current period.  For what it's worth, April 1993 saw general losses of about 2%, with rather unfocused trading.  Utilities were strong.  Large caps outperformed. 

Mar 30:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

A couple of our proprietary indicators led the way today, pointing to gains as high as 1.2% with decent significance.  Biotechs were strong.  Volatiles outperformed.  Yearlong losers were strong.  Cheap stocks and small caps fared well.

On the negative side, oils dropped about .8%.  Stocks with weak volume over the previous 3 sessions underperformed.  Stocks with low (but not negative) p/e ratios tended to lose slightly.

The above trends are positive for the next session.  One should note, however, that some of the dominant recent trends are likely to reverse as we enter the second quarter.

Mar 29:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Stocks with big gains over the last month were strong...up 1.3%.  Oils, metals and mining, utilities and transports all outperformed.  Yesterday's big gainers continued upward.  Stocks that were strong this time last year were strong yet again.

On the losing side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Monday's big losers dropped .7%.  Semiconductors and insurance stocks fared poorly.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Mar 28:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .8%.  Separation between groups was a miniscule 1.3%.

Only one group finished above water...medical technology stocks were essentially flat.  Stocks with weak volume over the last two weeks avoided large losses.

On the negative side, last Friday's big gainers lost 1.3%.  Banks were weak.  Stocks that have taken a hit over the last three months underperformed. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 27:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.5%.

Stocks that are simultaneously cheap and volatile (a high "perceived risk") were strongest today...up .1%.  This trend is rather odd in a negative market, though we note that it was not statistically significant.  Stocks with heavy recent volume finished above water.  Recent gainers outperformed.  Biotechs held up well.

REIT's were weak...down 1.3%.  Stocks with low (but not negative) p/e ratios were weak.

The above trends are mixed as indicator of the next session...the general losses foreshadow further losses, but the gains in volatile stocks (like biotechs) offer some daylight.

Mar 26:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Oils were strongest today...up 1.1%.  Last Thursday's big gainers continued upwards. Stocks with nice gains over the last month were strong as well.

On the losing side, stocks with large 1 month losses continued to be weak...down 1.5%.  REIT's stumbled...dividend payers were generally weak.  Stocks with a tendency to finish well off their daily highs were weak  Volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.. 

Mar 23:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq lost .1%.  There were few trading opportunities based on trends in particular groups of stocks...separation between groups was a mere 1.5%.

On the positive side of the market, the only noteworthy trend was a relatively strong performance by retails...up .6%.

Things were a bit more focused on the losing end of the market...stocks with high recent volatility lost as much as .6%.  Yearlong losers were weak.  Stocks with unusually heavy volume this month underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Mar 22:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Stocks with a negative p/e ratio led the way today...up 2%.  Cheap stocks, yearlong losers, and volatiles outperformed.  Tuesday's big losers reversed.  Oils and biotechs fared well. 

On the negative side, semiconductors and software stocks were weak, accounting for Nasdaq's poor performance today...down .5%.  Stocks with a tendency toward herd-like behavior (a high "corr" value) were weak.

The above trends are actually fairly positive for the next session.

Mar 21:  The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 2.0%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Stocks with fair-sized losses (in the 84-87 percentile, to be exact) over the last three months were strongest today...up 2.7%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month outperformed.  Insurance stocks and banks fared well. 

Free agents showed minimal gains.  Cheap stocks underperformed.  Stocks with a high "perceived risk" indicator fared poorly.  Stocks with weak volume yesterday were weak

The above trends are positive for the next so, though not overwhelmingly so...we're bothered that high-risk stocks performed poorly in the above session..   

Mar 20:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Last Wednesday's big gainers were strongest today...up 1.6%.  Thursday's gainers were also strong, while Monday's losers reversed nicely.  Volatiles outperformed.

On the losing side, stocks that closed well above their highs on Monday were weakest...down .4%.  Stocks with large yearlong losses continued to go down.  Stocks with heavy volume yesterday underperformed.

No industry groups at all were seen in our tables...the big gains and losses aren't to be found in particular industry groups.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 19:  The Dow gained 1%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 4%.

The strongest stocks were those that took a big hit last week...up as much as 3.4%.  Last Thursday's losers were particularly strong. 

On the losing side, stocks with large 3 month losses continued to drop...down .6%.  Friday's big gainers reversed. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 16:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Stocks with weak momentum were strongest today...up .6%.  Monday's big losers were particularly strong.  The 4% most volatile stocks fared well...however, the 4-8% most volatile stocks were quite weak (down as much as 1.9%), making it difficult to see a trend.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Mar 15:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

We saw a bit of a reversal of the recent trend toward momentum.  Stocks that have strongly tailed their best trading partners over the last month were strongest today...up 2.4%.  Stocks with large losses over the last week to month fared well.  Yesterday's winners, however, remained strong.  Insurance companies gained nicely.  Stocks that have been historically strong in this time slot were strong again.  Volatiles outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money today.  Stocks that finished near their lows in yesterday's session were weak, gaining as little as .2%.  Oils were flat.  Free agents underperformed.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 14:  We've got our data for the first half of March.  Our own take on the market had it down about 2.7%.

We didn't identify any groups that entirely avoided losses, though a few nearly broke even.  The list was led by stocks that finished February well over their 20 day averages...down .4%.  Stocks that entered February with nice gains over anything from one week to 3 months outperformed.  Utilities avoided large losses. 

The biggest losers were stocks that suffered in February...down as much as 16% in this 10 day span!  Volatiles were hurt.  On a risk-adjusted basis, banks were particularly weak.

The period shows a weak resemblance to March h1 2001 (large general losses focused especially on stocks with negative momentum).  For what it's worth, March h2 2001 was positive, with decent gains in volatile stocks.  The trend toward continued losses in losing groups remained in place, however.

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The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of our tables, though we did see some nice gains in select groups.  Stocks with strong volume this week gained as much as 2.3%.  Recent losers tended to reverse.  Stocks that lagged their best trading partners in the previous session jumped back. 

On the negative side, free agents lost...down as much as .5%.  Yesterday's winners were weak.  Stocks with weak volume yesterday failed to advance. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 13:  The Dow lost 2%, Nasdaq 2.1%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained.  About the best one could do would be to hold non-volatiles...down .8%.  Biotechs outperformed.  Small, illiquid stocks and "free agents" held up well.  In keeping with the trend toward momentum, stocks with nice (if not spectacular) gains over the last month fared better than most.

Stocks with big losses over the last month continued to get hit...down as much as 4.4%!  Stocks with big losses last Thursday were pummeled again today.  Volatiles were hit.  Insurance companies were weak.   Stocks that finished yesterday's session well above their lows were pummeled.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 12:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks trading well over their 100 day averages were strongest today...up 1.5%.  Winners of almost every shade were strong as well.  Despite the recent bumps, it seems the market has assumed a momentum personality.  Biotechs and scientific instruments fared well.  Volatiles outperformed. 

Losers were led by stocks with large losses over the last month.  Friday's losers were weak as well.  Stocks with a strong recent tendency to gain in the afterhours finished in negative territory.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 9:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

REIT's were strongest today...up 1.1%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last three months outperformed, again.

On the losing side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session reversed...down 1%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week tended to finish in negative territory.  Stocks with big three month losses were weak as well.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Mar 8:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Stocks with large gains over the last 3 months were strongest...up as much as 1.7%.  Retails fared well.  Yearlong gainers and stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels outperformed.

On the losing side, particularly "risky" stocks dropped as much as .7%.  Those with heavy volume over the last 3 days were weak.  Stocks with large losses over the last 3 months continued losing.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Mar 7:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Oils led the way today...up 1.8%.  Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were strong.  Volatiles were strong...a good sign.  Stocks with large losses over anywhere from 5 days to 1 year outperformed. 

Stocks that have performed strongly through the recent turbulence were weak today...down as much as 1.4%.  Banks underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 6:  The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Stocks with a series of recent losses led all gainers...up 4.3%.  Stocks that took a beating on Monday's session were strong enough to erase their losses in that session.  Monthlong losers fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Stocks that closed near their highs on Monday were weak, gaining as little as .5%.  Non-volatiles were weak.  Stocks that have actually held their ground over the last week failed to impress today. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 2:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained.  The strongest stocks were those that fared best last Tuesday (the day of the big selloff)...down .6%.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Insurance stocks had minimal losses.  Stocks with strong recent momentum outperformed. 

The biggest losers...stocks that got seriously burned on Tuesday (down 3.1%).  Stocks with large losses over any period from a week to three months were hurt.  Volatiles were hit.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  Given the similarities between this session and Tuesday's, it'll be interesting to see if next Monday's market mirrors last Wednesday's.

Mar 1:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Stocks with large losses in February reversed...up.6%.  Stocks with heavy volume on the last day of February were strong.  Dividend-payers outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with high current ratios dropped 1.7%.  Biotechs were weak.  Stocks with weak volume yesterday underperformed.  Cheap stocks and small caps fared poorly.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

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We've got our data for February.  Despite Tuesday's mini-debacle, we have the market down a mere .5% for the period.

Perhaps surprisingly, software stocks led the way...up 3.3%.  Free agents were strong.  Cheap stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, banks were weak, losing as much as 5%.  REIT's faltered as well.  Stocks that tend to follow the movements of other stocks (the opposite of a "free agent") were weak. 

The above trends are not strongly defined, so we'll refrain from trying to make predictions for March based on historical matches.

Feb 28:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Yesterday's big losers stormed back, though they still have a net loss...up 2.4%.  Recent losers were strong in general.  Metals and mining stocks fared well.

On the negative side, stocks with a high "perceived risk" ranking lost as much as .7%.  Stocks trading well under their most prominent resistance levels lost money.  Stocks that have held up well over the last week generally underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Feb 27:  The Dow lost 3.3%, Nasdaq 3.9%.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

We certainly didn't identify any groups that gained.  As one might expect, the strongest stocks were simply the least volatile...down as little as 1.6%.  Small, thinly-traded positions held up well...we'd guess that this behavior could reverse in the next session.  Insurance companies avoided large losses.  Stocks that finished near their lows in the previous session avoided monster losses.

The losingest stocks were those that trade well over their prime resistance levels...down a hefty 5.2%.  Yearlong winners got burned.  Volatiles were hit.  No industry groups were found on the losing side of our tables...today's movement was largely focused on punishing long-term winners in every industry.

Our "similar markets" feature might give some indication as to what can be expected in the next session.  Unfortunately, there's no typical response to a session where big losses are strongly focused on long-term winners.  Our best guess is that we'll see a rebound in the next session, with decent gains available in today's big losers. 

Feb 26:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Utilities were strongest today...up .8%.  Oils followed.  Non-volatiles and mid-caps finished in positive territory.

Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours sessions were hurt in today's regular session...down 1.2%.  In concord with a recent emphasis on momentum, stocks with a series of recent losses continued downwards.  Biotechs and banks underperformed.  Volatiles in general were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 23:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Stocks with strong momentum continued upwards today...up 1.3%.  Utilities were strong.

On the negative side, dividend payers got burned...down 1%.  Not surprisingly then, REIT's and banks were weak as well.  Stocks with weak recent momentum dropped.  Wednesday's losers continued to lose.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Feb 22:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Stocks that have been historically strong in this time slot led the way today...up 1.2%.  Yearlong losers and stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were strong.  Oils were strong.  Yesterday's big winners continued upwards.

On the losing side, construction services were weak...down at least 1%.  Retails faltered.

The above trends don't give any strong indications as to the direction of tomorrow's market.

Feb 20:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Our strongest stocks today were those trading well over their most prominent resistance levels...up as much as 2.1%.  No industry groups were found amongst our top gainers.

On the negative side, oils dropped .2%.  Large caps were weak. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Feb 16:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq were flat.  Separation between groups was a miniscule 1.5%.

Yearlong losers were strongest today...up .9%.  This reverses yesterday's trends, which favored long-term momentum.  Cheap stocks outperformed.  Wednesday's losers were strong.  Stocks with strong volume yesterday continued moving upward.

On the negative side, REIT's dropped .5%.  Stocks that have strongly underperformed their "trading partners" over the last month were weak.  Dividend-payers finished with losses.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Feb 14:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Semiconductors were strongest today...up 1.3%.  That's the first time in quite a while that semiconductors have topped our list of daily winners.  Large cap stocks were strong.  Stocks with large losses over the last month reversed. 

REIT's were weakest, losing .6%.  Banks underperformed.  Despite the Nasdaq's gains, small caps actually failed to show any gains.  Stocks with poor volume on Tuesday lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 13:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.5%...stocks moved in lockstep.

Stocks with big recent losses were strong...up 1.5%.  Oils and REIT's fared well. 

On the negative side, biotechs were essentially flat.  Stocks with nice recent gains underperformed.  Volatile stocks lagged.

The above trends are again mixed as indicators of the direction of the next session.

Feb 12:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 1.7%.

Nothing of significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Cheap stocks outperformed...up as much as .3%.  Small caps fared well.  A number of heavy industries finished the day with gains. 

REIT's were weakest today...down 1.4%.  Stocks that finished the previous session well above their lows for the day were weak.  Oils dropped.  Stocks with large 3 month gains underperformed.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Feb 9:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 1.8%.

Cheap stocks were strongest today, finishing flat.  They were strong yesterday as well.  Small caps avoided large losses.  Non volatiles avoided large losses, of course, but volatile stocks didn't suffer to the extent that one might expect on a day like this.  Biotechs outperformed.

On the losing side, stocks with large gains over the last 3 months to 1 year lost as much as 1.7%. 

The above trends are mixed for the next session...the general losses are discouraging, but today's trends don't evince the aversion to risk-taking that one sees in bearish market environments.

Feb 8:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

Cheap stocks were strongest today...up 1.2%.  Oils fared well.  Stocks with negative p/e ratios moved upwards.  Recent losers reversed.  Stocks with a historical tendency toward weakness at this time of year broke the trend.

On the negative side, stocks with low p/e ratios dropped .8%.  REIT's reversed yesterday's gains.  Insurance, brokerages, and other financial services were weak.

The above trends are positive for tomorrow's session.

Feb 7:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

REIT's were our strongest stocks today...up 1.5%.  Naturally, then, big divided payers gained nicely as well.  Stocks with big losses on Monday bounced back. 

Oils were weakest, dropping .6%.   Stocks with big gains over the last week reversed. 

The above trends don't really offer clues as to the direction of tomorrow's market.

Feb 6:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq were flat.  Our own take on the market, however, had it up .4%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

Again, stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were strongest...up 1.4%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week were strong as well.

Biotechs were weak, losing .5%.  Stocks that got burned in January continued getting burned.  Stocks with poor February histories repeated those histories.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Feb 5:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels fared well...up as much as .6%. 

On the losing side, stocks with large losses over the last month were weak...down as much as 1.3%.  Stocks with large losses over the last 3 months to 1 year were weak as well.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Feb 2:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 1.8%.

Construction services gained strongly today...up better than 1.4%.  Stocks with big gains on Wednesday, or big losses yesterday, continued upwards.  Yearlong losers fared well. 

Stocks with big gains on Tuesday were weak...down as much as .4%.  Oils lost.  Stocks with nice, if not spectacular, gains in January tended to reverse.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session. 

Feb 1:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Stocks with weak performances in this time slot over the last 3 years were strongest today...up 2%.  The trend was not significant.  Scientific device makers were strong.  Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels continued to perform well.  Yesterday's losers reversed. 

We only identified one losing group...stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels...down .1%.  Non volatiles and dividend-payers underperformed. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

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We've got our data for the month of January.  Our own take on the market has it up 2%.

Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels were strongest, gaining as much as 6.5%.  Expensive stocks fared well.  Stocks with large gains on the last day of 2006 continued to gain.  Stocks with a tendency to lose in the afterhours sessions were strong.  On a risk-adjusted basis, non-volatiles outperformed. 

On the losing side, yearlong losers were hurt...down 2.7%.  Banks and semiconductors were weak.  Stocks with large losses on the last day of 2006 continued to lose.  Mid-caps were weak.

The above trends are atypical for January, but not unheard of.  In fact, stocks with big yearlong gains outperformed in January 2004-06.  Unfortunately, February trends in those three years have not been clearcut.  We'd expect increased volatility in oils and biotechs, though the direction of these moves is up in the air. 

Jan 31:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Stocks with a recent tendency to finish near their lows fared well...up as much as 1.8%.  Stocks with a history of gains in this time slot gained nicely.  Large caps and expensive stocks outperformed.  Heavy industry gained nicely.

On the negative side, mid-cap stocks were weakest, losing as much as .4%.  Semiconductors lost money.  Banks were weak as well.  Cheap stocks underperformed.  Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot lost again.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...we'd like to see volatiles emerge as leaders.

Jan 30:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Oils separated from the pack today...up 2.9%.  The next closest group gained a mere 1.7%.  Stocks with large losses over the last 3 months fared well. 

Semiconductors were weakest...down .3%.  Stocks that fared poorly this time last year repeated the performance. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Jan 29:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained .2%.  Separation between groups was 1.7%.

Stocks with large gains over the last 3 months were strongest...up 1.5%.  Banks gained nicely.  Stocks that outperformed their "trading partner" in the last session continued to move forward.  Mid-caps were stronger than large or small caps.

The weakest stocks were those with the greatest capitalizations...down .2%.  Dividend payers failed to make much headway.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Jan 26:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq was flat.  Our own take on the market had it up .4%.  Separation between groups was only 1.7%.

Stocks with a history of gains in this period were strongest today...up 1.3%.  Those with large losses at this time last year were also quite strong.  Software stocks fared well.  Banks outperformed.  Small caps gained in excess of the market.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the negative side of the market.  Free agents finished with losses.  Non-volatiles were weak.  Heavy industry was flat.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 25:  The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Stocks that closed near yesterday's lows were strongest...up .4%.  REIT's finished with gains.  Despite Nasdaq's performance, small caps were relatively strong. 

Stocks with strong recent momentum reversed...down 1.9%.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading pairs in the previous session were weak.  Retails and oils fell in excess of the market.  Volatile stocks generally underperformed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 24:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Despite the positivity, separation between groups was a mere 1.6%...the market was swept up by one large wave today.

Stocks with large losses over the last week tended to reverse...the group gained 1.7%.  1 month and 3 month losers were strong as well. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Stocks that are held by a large number of institutions relative to their market capitalizations were weak...up .1%.  The trend was not significant.  Free agents were weak.  Non-volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 23:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq was flat.  Our own take on the market had it up .7%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Oils were clearly strongest today...up 2.8%.  Metals and mining stocks outperformed as well.  The top 80-90% most volatile stocks gained nicely.

Biotechs lost about .3% today.  Free agents, yearlong losers, and stocks with negative p/e ratios were all flat.  Dividend payers were weak.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Jan 22:  The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually avoided losses today.  Stocks that closed Friday near their lows lost .1%.  Non-volatiles avoided large losses.

Volatiles were weakest...down 2.3%.  Cheap stocks finished a close second.  Stocks with a history of large gains in this time slot tended to reverse.  Stocks with big one month gains were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.. 

Jan 19:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Oils were strongest today...up 2.2%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month (largely oils) were weak.  Yearlong losers fell as well. 

Despite Nasdaq's superior performance, the most volatile of stocks lost just a tad.  Non-volatiles were flat as well.  Free agents failed to move forward.  Small caps and semi-conductors failed to impress.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Jan 18:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

We didn't identify any groups that didn't lose today, though the least volatile of stocks were essentially flat.  Large caps outperformed.  Retails and heavy industry held up well.

Semiconductors were weakest...down 2.4%.  Stocks with a history of big gains in this time slot were hurt.  Stocks with big yearlong gains lost in excess of the market, though stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels got hit as well.  Volatiles were burned.

Bearing in mind that Fridays often reverse Thursday's trends, the above trends are negative for the next session.

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We've got our data for the first half of the month.  We have the general market up about .5%.

Our strongest group was stocks that trade well over their second most prominent resistance levels of the last year...up 4%.  Biotechs were strong.  Cheap stocks fared well, though it was the 92-96% (not 96-100%) cheapest stocks that made our lists.  Stocks with strong yearlong gains outperformed.  On a risk-adjusted basis, expensive stocks, non-volatiles, and large caps were strong.

On the negative side, oils were clearly the worst holdings...down 5%.  Banks were weak.  Small-caps tended toward losses.

The above trends are a mixed bag in terms of matching up with historical early year performances.  The best match might be Jan h1 1993.  For what it's worth, this period was followed by a reversal in the performance of oils, but continued strength in yearlong gainers. 

Jan 17:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .7%.   Our own take on the market had it down .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Our strongest stocks were those that have a slightly better-than-average cash/share figure...up 1.4%.  Oils were strong.  Stocks that underperformed their trading partner in the last session bounced back.

On the losing side, stocks with negative p/e ratios fell as much as 1.2%.  Cheap stocks were weak.  Banks dropped.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Jan 16:  The Dow gained .2%, while Nasdaq lost the same.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Cheap stocks led the way today, up as much as 1%.  REIT's were strong.  Stocks with big gains over the last 3 months fared well.  Volatiles and free agents were also seen on our "top 10" list.

On the negative side, last Friday's big winners dropped as much as 1.1%.  Banks and oils fell.  Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot repeated the performance.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 12:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Oils were clearly the strongest group today...up 2.7%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month (over 14%) fared well.  Stocks that have underperformed their best trading partners over the last month were strong.  Volatiles were strong.  Yesterday's big winners continued to win, though stocks with poor recent momentum showed nice gains as well. 

We didn't identify any stocks that actually lost money.  Non-volatiles were the weakest of the lot, finishing flat.  Dividend-payers underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 11:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq 1%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot were strongest today...up as much as 2.1%.  Last Friday's big losers fared well.  Yearlong winners were strong, as well as stocks with nice recent momentum. 

On the negative side, we see stocks that strongly underperformed their best trading partners in the last session...down .7%.  The trend was quite significant.  Oils were again weak.  Stocks with large monthlong losses finished in negative territory. 

The above trends are positive for the next session, though we'd like to see bigger gains amongst volatiles.  Bear in mind that Friday has a way of reversing trends.

Jan 10:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks trading well over their 3 month averages topped our list of winners today...up 1.4%.  Stocks with nice gains in December fared well.  Stocks with nice recent momentum outperformed.  Yearlong losers were also strong.  Stocks with negative p/e ratios fared well, bouncing back from losses yesterday.

On the negative side, oils were clearly the losingest group...down 1%.  Small caps were weak.  Transport-related stocks finished in negative territory.  Stocks with recent weakness continued on that path.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 9:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .2%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

REIT's were strongest today...up 1%.  A number of retails were strong as well.  Stocks with strong yearlong performances outperformed. 

On the losing side, stocks trading well below prominent resistance levels dropped as much as .9%.  Oils were weak.  Stocks with negative p/e ratios fell.  Small caps and cheap stocks round out the list of underperformers.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Jan 8:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .2%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.7%.

Stocks trading well over their most prominent long-term resistance levels were strongest today...up as much as 1.1%.  Cheap stocks and volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with large losses on the first trading session of the year continued downwards...off as much as .6%.  Stocks trading well below their 20 day averages, or below their most prominent resistance levels of the last year, were generally weak.  Heavy industry fared poorly.

The above trends are positive for the next session. 

Jan 5:  The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today.  The strongest of the lot were oils...down .1%.  Stocks with big increases in volume over the last 2 weeks were relatively strong.  Biotechs outperformed.  Stocks with large December losses, large caps, and expensive stocks round out the list.

On the negative side, big losers on the last session of 2006 continued downwards...off 2.5%.  Banks lost large sums, especially when one considers their usual non-volatile nature.  Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot continued resumed the habit.

The above trends are somewhat negative for the next session.

Jan 4:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Biotechs led the way today...up 1.4%.  Tech stocks were generally strong.  As with yesterday though, Nasdaq's gains were deceptive...the broader market meandered.

On the negative side, oils dropped yet again...down 2.3% this time.  Most of the other trends on the losing side of our tables followed as a result of the losses in oils...big losers included yesterday's losers, stocks with a series of recent losses, stocks whose moves are tightly linked to other stock's moves, and stocks that fared well this time last year.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partners yesterday tended toward weakness today.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Jan 3:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was a big 4.7%, driven by big moves in a couple industries.

On the positive side, transport-related stocks gained 1.2%.  Non-volatiles were actually quite strong.  Retails outperformed.

Oils were the big losers today...down 3.6%.  Stocks with big losses in December continued downwards.  Stocks with high recent volatility were weak.

The above trends are a tad negative for the next session...we want to see gains in volatile issues.

Jan 1, 2007:  We've written before on the subject of seasonality and charting.  In general, we're not big fans of the "technical" side of technical investing, but that's not to say that we don't think charts might have something to reveal about the future of stocks and markets.  To the extent that stocks and markets are affected by tax strategies, and these strategies relate to the long term peaks and valleys one finds in equity charts, the charts should certainly have some value.

We've posted a new three year chart of the performance of the Dow.  The basic pattern is that of two years of relative flatness, followed by a third year of strong gains, particularly in the final quarter.  To our eyes, the 1984-86 charts show some resemblances.  For what it's worth, 1987 was a weak year for the market.  Nevertheless, January 1987 played out nicely, with large gains seen in tech-stocks and other volatile interests.

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