April 1:   The Dow gained 3.2%, Nasdaq 3.7%.  Separation between groups was 5.6%.

Stocks with large losses last Wednesday were strongest today...up a whopping 6.7%.  Stocks trading well under resistance levels reversed.  Brokerages fared well.  Banks outperformed.  Losers of just about every shade were stronger than the general market.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session failed to show spectacular % gains...up a mere 1.1%.  Free agents lagged.  Oils underperformed.  Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

******

We've got our data for the first quarter.  Our own take on the market had it down about 9.5%.

We didn't identify a single group that actually gained, though oils were essentially flat.  Banks lost very little ground as well.  REIT's lost about 1%.  Stocks that ended the 2007 with a week of losses tended to outperform the general market.  Rather oddly, volatile stocks held up rather well.

On the negative side, stocks that came into the year trading well under their third most prominent resistance levels ("resist3") lost as much as 19.5%.  Stocks with big gains in 2007, however, also tended to suffer.  Healthcare companies were quietly punished.  Semiconductors and scientific instrument did not impress.  Free agents underperformed.

*******************

We've got our data for the month of March.  Our own take on the market had it down about .5%.  The popular indices tended toward greater losses.  That's not surprising, as small-caps, equally weighted in our own calculations, outperformed.

Nothing of great significance emerged on either the winning or losing side of the market.  Stocks with heavy institutional ownership (as a percentage of market cap) outperformed...up as much as 6.5%.  Banks fared well.  Stocks that tend to move in concert with other stocks (the opposite of a "free agent") gained in excess of the general market.

On the negative side, stocks with weak fundamentals (as measured by p/e ratio) led the way...down 7.5%.  Not surprisingly, then, biotechs were hurt.  Free agents lost in excess of the market.  Stocks with big losses in February continued losing.  Brokerages did not impress.

Mar 31:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with big, if not extreme, losses over the last month were strongest today...up 2.1%.  Stocks with a tendency to close near their lows followed.  Recent losers were strong as well.

On the negative side, stocks held by large numbers of institutions (as a % of market cap) were weak...down 1.4%.  Friday's big gainers reversed.  Small caps underperformed.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 28:  The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq .9%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 4.2%.

Small, illiquid stocks were strongest today...up .5%.  Stocks with a recent tendency to open below the previous day's close fared well.  Non-volatiles avoided large losses.  Oils and scientific equipment makers gained.

On the negative side, stocks trading well below their longterm resistance levels were weakest...down as much as 3.7%.  Volatiles were hit.  Last Monday's big gainers reversed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 27:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%...relatively low by recent standards.

Somewhat oddly, stocks with a maximal combination of volatility and cheapness (a high "perceived risk") were strongest today...up .7%.  Biotechs were strong.  Free agents gained.  Stocks with large recent losses avoided further losses.

On the losing side, more oddness:  stocks with a p/e ratio between 4.5 and 7.5 lost 2.6%.  One normally expects these sorts of stocks to hold up well in losing sessions.  Brokerages and banks were weak.  Stocks with large gains over the last 3 months underperformed.

The above trends are rather schizoid as predictors of the next session, so we'll refrain from offering any speculation as to the direction of tomorrow's market.

Mar 26:  The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 5.4%.

Oils were clearly strongest today...up 2.3%.  Stocks with large yearlong gains continued upwards.  Recent losers reversed. 

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were weakest...down 3.1%.  Last Friday's big gainers lost.  Construction stocks and some retails were weak.  Banks did not impress.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Mar 25:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .6%.  Our own take on the market had it up .9%.  Separation between groups was 5.4%.

Stocks with heavy institutional ownership (as a % of market cap) were strongest today...up 4.7%.  Small, illiquid stocks in general were strong, bouncing back from yesterday's weakness.  Stocks with big recent losses fared well.  Cheap stocks and volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with large recent gains tended to reverse...down as much as .7%.  Biotechs lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 24:  The Dow gained 1.5%, Nasdaq 3%.  Separation between groups was 7.8%.

Stocks with a recent tendency to close well off their highs were strongest today...up 7.8%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to year fared well.  Volatiles outperformed. 

We only identified one group with losses...small, illiquid stocks were essentially flat.  Non-volatiles did not impress.  Dividend payers underperformed.  Utilities were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 20:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 2.2%.  Separation between groups was 6.3%.

Stocks with big gains on Tuesday repeated the performance today...up 6%.  Banks and retails moved strongly upwards.  Stocks with big losses over the last quarter to year outperformed the market.

Losers were led by oils...down .4%.  Free agents and small, illiquid stocks were weak.  Stocks with large losses over the last week did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 19:  The Dow lost 2.4%, Nasdaq 2.6%.  We had the market down 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 5.9%.

Biotechs were strongest today...up .7%.  Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session tended to gain today.  Free agents avoided losses.  Cheap stocks and small caps outperformed.

On the negative side, oils led the way...down 5.2%.  Metals and mining stocks weren't far behind.  Not surprisingly, then, stocks with large yearlong gains tended toward weakness.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Mar 18:  The Dow gained 3.5%, Nasdaq 4.2%.  Separation between groups was 8.2%.

Stocks that opened Monday sharply lower than Friday's close were strongest today...up 8.8%.  Brokerages bounced back nicely.  Stocks that had taken big recent hits reversed.  Volatiles were strong.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Free agents lagged...up a mere .6%.  Small, illiquid stocks didn't keep up with the market.  Stocks owned by either few or many institutions, as a % of capitalization, underperformed.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Biotechs did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 17:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq lost 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 4.2%.

Despite the performance of the Dow, we didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  Dividend-payers were again strong again...down as little as .1%.  Banks held up well.  Non-volatiles, not surprisingly, outperformed the market. 

Stocks that had already taken a beating over the last five days were hit hardest...down 4.3%.  Oils and insurance stocks were hit hard.  One again, losers of just about every sort were punished.

The above trends are generally negative.  The Fed's action, of course, could easily overwhelm the sort of market influences we analyze.

Mar 16 (Sun):  We've got our data for the first half of March.  We have the general market down 4.4%.

Only a couple of groups finished with gains.  Stocks that pay moderate dividends led the way...up about .7%.  Banks avoided losses.  Non-volatiles finished with minimal losses.

Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were weakest...down as much as 12.4%.  Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were burned.  Stocks that came into the month with large losses over a span of anywhere from a week to a year were hit hard. 

The above trends are rather similar to March h1 of last year.  For what it's worth, March h2 2007 reversed a number of negative trends.  Cheap stocks gained nicely.  Biotechs and oils outperformed. 

Mar 14:  The Dow lost 1.6%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually stayed above water.  Utilities were strongest, losing a mere 1.1%.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session fared well.  Biotechs outperformed.  Non-volatiles and expensive stocks avoided major losses.

Stocks with big gains last Tuesday were weakest today...down 5%.  Those with a tendency to gain in the afterhours reversed.  Longterm losers continued downward. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 13:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .9%.  We had the market up 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 4.1%.

Construction-related stocks were strongest today...up at least 4%.  Stocks that fared well this time last year repeated the performance.  Oils and metals and mining stocks outperformed.  Stocks with large gains over the last three months continued upwards.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the weak side of the market.  Biotechs underperformed, gaining only about .2%.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Dividend payers tended toward weakness.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 12:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .5%.  We had the market down .9%.  Separation between groups was 4%.

Free agents were strongest today...up 1%.  They were weakest yesterday, so it's not surprising that yesterday's big losers found themselves amongst the strongest groups today.  Biotechs avoided losses. 

On the losing side, stocks with big gains yesterday led the way...down 3%.  Stocks with big losses on Monday continued on the downward path.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Mar 11:  The Dow gained 3.6%, Nasdaq 4%. We had the market up 4.2%.  Separation between groups was 7.4%.

Banks were strongest today, averaging 8.1% gains.  Stocks with big losses last Thursday reversed strongly.  Losers of every variety, in fact, showed strength.  Volatiles fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money today.  Free agents were weakest...up a mere .7%.  Small caps lagged.  Healthcare stocks did not impress.  Non-volatiles, of course, lagged the general market.  Stocks on a recent winning streak couldn't keep up with the market.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 10:  The Dow lost 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  We had the market down 2.2%.  Separation between groups was 4.4%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money.  One proprietary indicator "predicted" losses as low as .6%.  Otherwise, banks and utilities held up well.  Non-volatiles outperformed. 

Stocks with large recent losses continued to get pummeled...down as much as 5%.  Volatiles were burned.  Metals and mining stocks lost in excess of the market.  Biotechs were hurt.  Stocks with large losses over the last 3 months suffered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 7:  The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Banks were strongest today...up 1.7%.  REIT's fared well as well.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session finished in positive territory.

Yesterday's big gainers were weakest today...down 2.9%.  Stocks with large gains over the last year were punished.  Metals and mining stocks underperformed. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 6:  The Dow lost 1.8%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.1%.  Separation between groups was 4.8%.

We didn't identify any groups that finished in positive territory.  The best of the lot was stocks that are held by large numbers of institutions in relation to their capitalizations...down .9%.  Small, illiquid stocks fared well...perhaps they were simply ignored for the time being.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Healthcare issues outperformed.  Expensive stocks were relatively strong.

Stocks that had already taken a beating over the last week were weakest...down a big 5.7%.  Those with large losses over the last year were also picked on. 

Bearing in mind that Friday is more likely to reverse previous trends than the other days of the week, the above trends are negative.

Mar 5:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Metals and mining stocks were strongest today...up 1.8%.  Not surprisingly, oils weren't far behind.  Stocks with big yearlong gains continued upwards.  Stocks with a history of gains in this time slot repeated the performance.

On the negative side, banks dropped 1.5%.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.  Stocks with large losses over the last month continued to lose.  Insurance operations did not impress.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 4:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq  gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Transportation-related stocks were strong...up .7%.  Last Thursday's losers bounced back, while Friday's winners continued their gains.

Stocks with big gains over the last week were punished...down 2%.  Oils were weak.  Stocks with big gains over the last month underperformed.  Volatiles did not impress.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Mar 3:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Stocks with current ratios that are entirely modal (smack dab in the middle of a list of stocks, sorted by current ratio) gained 1.4%.  Not a particularly insightful statistic.  Oils and metals and mining fared well.  Non-volatiles outperformed.  Yearlong winners fared well.

On the negative side, stocks with especially low p/e ratios were burned...down 3.2%.  Stocks with big losses last Thursday lost again.  Stocks with big monthlong or yearlong losses continued downward.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 1 (Sat):  We've got our data for the month of February.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.9%.

Oils were clearly the strongest group of stocks this month...up 9.6%.  Metals and mining stocks followed, as they often do.  Stocks with big yearlong gains finished in positive territory.  Stocks that closed near the lows on the last trading day of January outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with big gains in January were hit fairly hard...down as much as 14.6%.  Stocks with strong January finishes were weak.  Banks suffered.   Yearlong losers continued to lose.

Feb 29:  The Dow lost 2.5%, Nasdaq 2.6%.  Separation between groups was 4%. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  The best stocks were "free agents" (stocks whose motions don't strongly correlate with the motions of other stocks)...down as little as 1.5%.  REIT's and biotechs held up relatively well.  Not surprisingly, non-volatiles outperformed.

Stocks with large yearlong losses topped our list of big losers...down a big 5.5%.  Volatile stocks and cheap stocks lost well in excess of the market.  Thursday's big losers got hit again. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 27:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .3%.  Our own take on the market had it down .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%...lower than we've seen for quite a while.

Semiconductors were strongest today...up 1.1%.  Volatile stocks in general fared well. 

On the negative side, oils dropped 1.5%.  Stocks with large gains over the last month reversed.  Stocks with a history of strength in this time slot were weak this time around.  Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session tended to lose today.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 26:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq .8.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Volatile stocks topped our list of gainers today...up as much as 2.8%.  Longterm losers fared well.  Retails outperformed.  Cheap stocks were strong.

Only a few groups actually lost money, with one of our proprietary indicators predicting losses as great as .2%.  Stocks with big gains over the last month tended towards flatness.  Metals and mining stocks, banks, and REIT's did not impress.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 25:  The Dow gained 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 3.6%.  Last Thursday's big losers reversed.  Stocks trading well below long-term resistance levels fared well.  Oils and metals and mining stocks outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that lost money today.  Small, illiquid stocks gained as little as .1%.  Utilities did not impress.  Non-volatiles and free agents underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 22:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .2%.  Our own take on the market had it up a mere .1%.  Separation between groups was 3.7%.

REIT's were strongest today...up 1.5%.  Large caps outperformed, as one might expect given the Dow's strength. 

On the negative, stocks with a recent tendency towards strength in the afterhours lost as much as 2.2%.  Cheap stocks and small caps finished with losses.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.  Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot continued to lose.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Feb 21:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.8%.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

We identified only one winning group today...stocks that closed near or at their lows on Wednesday gained .1%.  Free agents, weak in the previous session, outperformed today.

Loser were led by stocks with big gains in the previous session...down 3.5%.  Stocks with big yearlong losses were hit once again.  Last Friday's big losers also were damaged. 

Bearing in mind that Friday is more likely to reverse trends than other days of the week, the above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 20:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  One of our proprietary indicators predicted gains as high as 3.7%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last month fared well.  Yearlong losers, on the other hand, also outperformed.

Only a handful of groups showed losses.  Networking stocks were worst...down .2%.  Biotechs did not impress.  Utilities were flat.  Free agents lagged.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Feb 19:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .7%.  Our own take on the market had it up .1%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Oils were clearly the strongest group today...up 2.8%.  Stocks with large gains over the last quarter to year fared well. 

On the negative side, small/illiquid stocks dropped 1.5%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to quarter continued to drop.  Retails and semiconductors did not impress.  Volatiles were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 15:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Some of our proprietary indicators showed gains as high as .7% in various groups.  Some heavy industries, REIT's, and insurance operations fared well. 

Cheap stocks were weak, losing as much as 2.2%.  Stocks with big gains over the last month reversed.  Stocks with strong performances in this time slot last year were weak this time around.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

****************

We've got our data for the first half of the month.  We had the market down about 1.5%.

Oils were clearly the strongest stocks over the last two weeks...up 6%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains continued the trend...quite typical for February.  Stocks on a late January losing streak, however, outperformed as well.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows on the last session of January lost 9.7%.  Stocks with strong momentum in late January reversed quickly.  Banks were weak.

Feb 14:  The Dow lost 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  We had the general market down 2.1%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today.  The best of the lot were stocks that have taken a big hit over the last month or so...down .6%.  Recent losers were also strong, though last Friday's big winners also outperformed.  Oils held up well.

On the negative side, moderately small-cap stocks lost as much as 3.9%.  Stocks with big gains in the last week to month reversed.  Retails underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session...though the general losses were large, we're pleased that volatiles were not singled out for punishment.  It's also nice to see some risk-taking manifesting as bottom-fishing.

Feb 13:  The Dow gained 1.5%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Stocks with short-term averages well below long-term averages were strongest today...up 3.5%.  Scientific instruments fared well.  Cheap stocks outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Non-volatiles lagged...up a mere .4%.  Banks and utilities did not impress.  Free agents lagged the market.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 12:  The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strong today...up 2.7%.  Last Friday's big losers performed well.  Long-term losers outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with large gains over the last month finished with losses...down 1%.  In fact, all sorts of winning groups, with time frames from one week to one year, lost money today.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 11:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  Our own take on the market had it up a mere .1%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Oils were clearly strongest today...up 2.5%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains continued upwards.  Metals and mining stocks, retails, and semiconductors all prospered.  Large caps outperformed.

On the negative side, banks lost 2.1%.  REIT's were weak.  Not surprisingly then, big dividend payers did not impress.  Stocks with big yearlong losses lost more ground.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Feb 8:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq gained .5%.  Our own take on the market had it down .8%.  Separation between groups was 4.4%.

Oils were strongest today...up 1.8%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains prospered.  Metals and mining stocks fared well. 

On the negative side, REIT's dropped a big 2.6%.  Stocks with large losses over the last year dropped further.  Stocks with low p/e ratios (largely REIT's) underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Feb 7:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .6%. Our own take on the market had it up 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Retails were strongest today...up 3.7%.  Stocks with poor recent momentum fared well, especially those with large losses on Monday and/or Wednesday. 

While moderately small-cap stocks outperformed, the smallest of small-caps were weak...down .5%.  Cheap stocks did not impress.  Despite Nasdaq's relative strength, the average hi-tech issue underperformed.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Feb 6:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained.  Stocks with a low "leadership" rating were essentially flat.  Non-volatiles avoided large losses.  Healthcare-related issues outperformed. 

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows on Tuesday reversed...down 3.3%.  Last Friday's big gainers were also weak.  Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot tended to lose once again.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 5:  The Dow lost 2.9%, Nasdaq 3.1%.  Separation between groups was a surprisingly small 3.5%...stocks tended to move with the herd.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  The strongest stocks were small and illiquid...down .9%.  Free agents held up well.  Non-volatiles outperformed.  Computer networking  and biotech stocks avoided major losses. 

Consumer/investment services were the weakest positions...down 4.4%.  Oddly, the most expensive stocks tended to drop in excess of the market.  Large caps were actually weaker than small caps.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  One encouraging note:  volatile stocks weren't selected out for punishment.

Feb 4:  The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 6.2%.

Utilities were clearly the strongest group today...up 1.1%.  Stocks with big losses in January reversed.  Oils gained.  Stocks with a recent tendency to close far off their highs gained.

On the losing side, stocks with a recent tendency to close near their highs dropped big-time...down 5%.  The next closest group, stocks with big gains in January, lost 4%.  Retails were hit.  Last week's big winners reversed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Feb 2 (Sat):  Though one trading session late, we'd be remiss if we didn't point out a rather spectacular feature of the last two weeks of January's trading:  the fact that 4% of stocks with the largest yearlong losses popped an average of 23%, versus the market's 4.2%!  This is quite a radical turnaround from market behavior in the first half of the month, when these stocks took a beating.  If yesterday's session is any indication, the trend will continue.

Generally speaking, big gains in yearlong losers are more likely to occur in the first half of January.  The last time we saw this sort of behavior was 2001.  In that case, however, the gains in yearlong losers in Jan h2 did not represent a reversal of Jan h1 trends.  For what it's worth, Feb h1 2001 reversed course dramatically...yearlong winners showed very nice gains (20%+), and yearlong losers lagged.

Feb 1:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.3%.  Separation between groups was 3.4%.

Stocks with large losses over the last three months were strongest...up 4.4%.  Yearlong losers weren't far behind.  Volatiles outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The weakest stocks were small, illiquid issues...up .7%.  Yesterday's big winners tended towards weakness.  Free agents and non-volatiles did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

*********************

We've got our data for the month of January.  Our take on the market had it down a tad over 5%.

Stocks with low p/e ratios topped our list of winners, gaining 5.8%.  Banks reversed their losing ways.  Stocks with big losses over anywhere from three months to one year tended toward strength...the classic January effect.  The gains in yearlong losers are all the more impressive when one considers that this group took some serious punishment in the first half of the month.

Semiconductors topped our list of losers...down a nasty 16.5%.  Other hi-tech stocks (e.g. scientific devices and networking) did not impress.  Stocks with large yearlong gains reversed. 

Jan 31:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.7%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.5%.  Separation between groups was a big 6.4%.

Stocks whose 20 day moving averages have made large moves in the last few days were strongest...up 6.5%.  Volatiles fared well.  Somewhat oddly, stocks with low p/e ratios tended to make big moves.  Construction stocks were strong.  Banks and yearlong losers outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Biotechs were clearly the weakest, however...up a mere .1%.  Non-volatiles and big yearlong gainers failed to keep pace with the market.  Stocks with large losses this month tended toward weakness.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 30:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .4%.  Our own take on the market had it down .9%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Small, thinly-traded issues were strongest today...up 1.6%.  Stocks trading well below resistance levels again fared well.  Cheap stocks prospered.  Volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with big gains on Tuesday lost as much as 2.4% today.  Stocks whose short term averages are considerably higher than their longer term averages were weak. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...the general losses are dismaying, but we like the fact that the market selected volatiles out for gains.

Jan 29:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Stocks trading well below resistance levels were strongest today...up 3.8%.  Volatiles finished near the top of our tables, for once.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to three months fared well. 

On the negative side, REIT's lost .8%.  Stocks trading well over resistance levels tended to walk away from the session with losses.  Stocks with heavy volume in yesterday's session did not impress. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 28:  The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 1%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.3%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with big gains last Wednesday were strong again today...up 4.5%.  Stocks with low p/e ratios (under 8.0) fared well.  Yearlong losers were strong.  Last Friday's big losers reversed.  Banks outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Healthcare stocks tended toward weakness...up 1%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains underperformed.  Stocks with large losses over the last week did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 25:  The Dow lost 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  We had the market down .7%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Metals and mining stocks were strongest today...up 1.4%.  Transportation-related stocks fared well.  Stocks with large losses over the last month extended their gains.  Small caps outperformed.

Stocks with big gains over the last week were hit fairly hard...down 3.2%.  Tuesday's big gainers were particularly weak.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Jan 24:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Our own take on the market had it up a mere .3%.  Separation between groups was 5.2%.

Stocks with large losses over the last three months were strongest today...up 3.3%.  Stocks with large losses over a month to a year also fared well.  Volatiles outperformed...a good sign. 

On the negative side, stocks with strong institutional ownership (after market cap is considered) were weak...down 1.9%.  Biotechs lost again.  Non-volatiles actually lost money...it appears that some cash is shifting out of the hands of conservative investors.  REIT's lost money.  Stocks with strong gains over the last month tended toward weakness.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 23:  The Dow gained 2.5%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Our own take on the market had it up a whopping 3.7%!  Separation between groups was a big 9.6%.

Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were strongest today, gaining as much as 9.7%.  Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels showed major gains.  Yesterday's big winners excelled again today. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The weakest of the lot were stocks with large gains over the last year...up as little as .1%.  Biotechs lagged.  Free agents did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.  Ideally, though, we'd like to see volatiles showing particular strength, and non-volatiles lagging.  These trends were not apparent today.

Jan 22:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq 2%.  Our own take on the market had it flat!  Separation between groups was 6.6%.

Industry groups dominated today's winners and losers.  Banks led the way, gaining 3.4%.  Retails were quite strong.  REIT's fared well.  Yearlong losers and stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels outperformed.

Biotechs led losers...down 3.2%.  Cheap stocks and free agents were weak.  Stocks with a history of weakness in this time slot tended toward weakness again.

Today's session was exciting, but leaves no sharp indicators of the direction of tomorrow's market.  We'll call it neutral.

Jan 18:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .3%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1%.  Separation between groups was a sedate 2.9%.

Expensive stocks were strongest today...up .5%.  Stocks with big losses over the last week were a close second.  Retails continued to show strength.  Large caps fared well.

On the losing side, market leaders tended to lose...down as much as 2.5%.  Biotechs, which had held up well of late, lost in excess of the market.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session. 

Jan 17:  The Dow lost 2.5%, Nasdaq 2.0%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.7%.  Separation between groups was 4.8%.

Biotechs were strongest today, losing 1.3%.  Retails outperformed again.  Free agents and stocks with weak volume in the previous session avoided large losses. 

Stocks with big losses in the previous session got hit again today...down a big 6.1%.  Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels tended to lose in excess of the market (though it should be noted that stocks trading moderately below these levels actually held up well).   Banks were hit.

The above trends are negative for Friday, though Friday does have a tendency to reverse the trends of the previous four days.  Also, while losing sessions tend to follow losing sessions, the tendency actually diminishes a bit when the initial losing session shows particularly large losses.

Jan 16:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .9%.  Our own take on the market had it up .8%!  Separation between groups was a big 6.6%.

Stocks with large losses over the last year led all groups...up as much as 4.1%.  Volatiles finished with substantial gains.  Retails bounced back from recent weakness.

On the losing side, stocks with big yearlong gains lost 2.7%.  Oils weren't far behind.  Metals and mining stocks were weak.  Expensive stocks and large caps faltered.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

***************

We've got our data for the first half of January.  It's not pretty.  Our own take on the general market had it down 9.5%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained over the period.  Biotech and pharma held up best, losing as little as 1%.  Healthcare stocks were strong.  Another strong industry was oils. Not surprisingly, non-volatiles tended to beat the market.

Stocks trading well below longterm resistance levels were hit hard...down as much as  17.4% in the last 10 days.   Retails suffered, as they often do at this time of year.  Volatiles were burned, as well as stocks with large losses in the previous 3 months to 1 year.

This is the weakest beginning of year performance in at least 25 years.  The above data does parallel that of January 2005 to some degree.  For what it's worth, the second half of January 2005 was flat, with no strong tendency for first half trends to reverse.

Jan 15:  The Dow lost 2.2%, Nasdaq 2.4%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today.  Stocks that closed yesterday's session well below their highs held up well...down as little as .6%.  Biotechs resisted major losses.  Non-volatiles, of course, fared better than the general market.

Volatile stocks were weakest...down as much as 4.5%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week reversed.  Stocks with reasonably large losses over the last month to quarter were hit again.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 14:  The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1%.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Stocks with strong performances at this time last year repeated the performance...up as much as 3.1%.  Stocks with a recent tendency to close well off their daily highs fared well.  Transportation-related equities and oils gained nicely.  Stocks with large losses last week reversed.

One of our proprietary indicators predicted losses as high as .5%.  Outside of those, stocks that closed near their highs on Friday wound up losing money today.  REIT's, banks, and retails underperformed. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...we'd like to see volatiles and tech stocks partake in the gains.

Jan 11:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with low p/e ratios were strongest today...down a mere .1%.  Oddly, particularly volatile stocks outperformed the general market.  Biotechs held up well.  Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels tended to beat the market.

Stocks held by large numbers of institutions as a % of market capitalization were weakest...down 3.6%.  Stocks with big gains on Wednesday reversed.  Small caps generally underperformed the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 10:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq .6%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.2%.  Separation between groups was a big 6.3%.

Stocks with big losses over the last 1 month to 1 year were strongest...up as much as 5.9%.  Volatiles fared well.  These groups were big losers in the previous session, so it's not surprising to see that stocks with large losses yesterday were also quite strong.

On the losing side, some of our proprietary indicators predicted losses as high as .4%.  Stocks with large gains over the last month were weak.  Despite the Dow's strength, non-volatiles did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.  Bear in mind that, of all days of the week, Friday is most difficult to predict based on the previous day's trends.

Jan 9:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Our own take on the market had it up a more modest .5%.  Separation between groups was 5.2%.

A number of our proprietary indicators predicted gains as high as 2.4%, with decent significance.  Outside of those, dividend-paying stocks tended to outperform.

On the negative side, stocks with short term averages well below long term averages got hurt...down as much as 2.9%.  That's quite significant given the nice gains in the general market today.  Yearlong losers got hit again.  Volatile stocks underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session...the general gains are nice, but the losses in volatiles are disturbing.

Jan 8:  The Dow lost 1.9%, Nasdaq 2.4%.  Separation between groups was 5.6%.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses today.  Stocks with strong momentum fared best...down as little as .3%.  Biotechs held up nicely.  Not surprisingly, non-volatiles outperformed.

The biggest losers were stocks with large yearlong losses...down a massive 5.9%.  Volatile stocks suffered.  Stocks with big losses last Friday lost big again. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 7:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq lost .2%.  Our own take on the market had it up .5%.  Separation between groups was 4%.

We only identified one interesting trend on the positive side of the market...banks gained about 2.1% to lead all groups.

Stocks with large yearlong gains were weakest today...down 2.1%.  The trend was quite significant.  Stocks with big fourth quarter or December gains were also quite weak.  Tech stocks failed to impress.  Metals, mining, and oils finished with losses.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...we'd feel more bullish if semiconductors showed gains instead of losses.

Jan 4:  The Dow lost 2%, Nasdaq 3.8%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.1%.  Separation between groups was 4%...one might have expected a more extreme values, but it appears that stocks moved more or less in herd like fashion.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  The best group of stocks to hold was the least volatile...down 1%.  Healthcare stocks and gas utilities held up well.  Biotechs fared relatively well, despite their reputation for risk. 

On the losing side, we have stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels...down as much as 5.5%.  Stocks with big 3 month losses continued to lose.  Volatiles were hit hard. 

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Jan 3:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .3%.  Our own take on the market had it down a big 1.4%!  Separation between groups was 4.8%.

Stocks trading well over resistance levels were strongest...up as much as .9%.  Three-month winners fared well.  Expensive stocks and non-volatiles finished with gains.

On the negative side, stocks trading well below resistance levels were hit hard...down as much as 3.9%.  Though it's only one session, this action doesn't bode well for those who wish to take advantage of the traditional "January effect".  Retails were weak.  Volatile stocks suffered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 2:  The Dow lost 1.7%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 4.2%.

Oils were the only group that gained today...up 1%.  Stocks with large losses on Monday were flat.  Small caps and cheap stocks had minimal losses. 

On the losing side, stocks with large gains on Monday reversed...down 3.2%.  Banks were weak.  Insurance companies and brokerages did not impress either.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 1:  We've got our data for the month of December.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.5%.

Oils were clearly the strongest stocks this month...up 6.8%.  Nearly 2% behind, we have stocks trading well over their long term resistance levels.  Stocks trading well under their long term resistance levels also tended to outperform.  Stocks with strong December performances in the previous three years didn't break habit.

On the losing side, stocks with a strong tendency to close near their highs lost as much as 7%.  Stocks in the entertainment industry were weak.  Stocks with strong end-of-November momentum reversed.  Banks extended their yearlong woes.

*****************

We've got our data for Q4 2007.  Our own take on the market had it down 7.5%.

Utilities were strongest...up 3.7%.  Stocks that stepped into the quarter with big gains over the previous 12 months continued to move upwards.  Stocks with big Q3 and/or September gains outperformed as well.  Stocks that came into the quarter having strongly outperformed their best trading partners in the month of September were strong. 

On the losing side, stocks that entered the quarter trading well below their prime resistance levels were hit hard...down as much as 18.5%!  Stocks with big losses in the last week of September lost large %'s.  Banking stocks were weak, particularly after risk-adjustment.

**************

We've got our data for 2007.  Our own take on the market had it down 6.9%.  The Dow gained 6.4%, and Nasdaq 8.9%.  The Russell 3000, from which our stocks are drawn, gained 3.3%.  The discrepancy between our read of the market and the Russell 3000's is explained by the fact that we don't weight stocks according to capitalization.  Obviously then, 2007 was a year where large caps generally outperformed small caps.

The market was led by metal and mining stocks...up 19.5%, far ahead of the second-place group.  These gains were particularly strong after risk-adjustment.  Utilities fared well.  Stocks in the "electronic instruments" category outperformed.  Stocks with a three year history (2004-2006) of gains continued to move upwards. 

On the negative side, it's no surprise that banks were weakest...down 29.7%.  REIT's floundered.  Given the losses in these groups, dividend-paying stocks in general were weak.  Non-volatile stocks underperformed the general market.  Stocks that had taken a hit in the previous 3 years continued to do so.

Dec 31:  The Dow and Nasdaq lost .8% on the last trading session of the year.  Our own take on the market had it down .4%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were strongest today...up 1.4%.  Stocks with big losses on Friday rebounded today.  Stocks with yearlong losses tended to gain today.  Small caps outperformed.

On the losing side, stocks with strong overall December performances lost 1.6%.  Last Friday's big gainers reversed. 

The above trends are ordinarily slightly negative for the next session.  However, beginning of the year considerations will probably dominate the next few sessions.  Historically, the first few sessions of January have been strongly positive.

We've got a lot of work ahead of us in the next day or so...stay tuned for our look at 2007, the 4th quarter, December, and more.

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