Apr 1:  The Dow gained 2%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 7.7%.

Stocks with big losses over the previous week were strongest today...up 7.1%.  Volatiles outperformed.  Stocks with big yearlong losses gained nicely.

Despite today's positivity, a handful of groups actually lost money.  The list was led by stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session...down .6%.  REIT's dipped.  Biotechs were flat.  Stocks with large yearlong gains failed to impress.

The above trends are positive as indicators of the next session.

*****************

We've got our data for the first quarter.  Despite nice gains in March, we had the market down 12.5% for the period.

Despite the general losses, some sweet gains were to be had.  Cheap stocks led the way, up 23.5%.  Small caps showed nice gains.  Stocks with big losses in December reversed.  Free agents outperformed.  Despite weakness in March, biotechs fared well.  Semiconductors round out our list of outperformers.

On the negative side, banks continued to suffer...down as much as 33.7%.  Stocks that entered January trading well over their 20 day averages were hurt badly.  REIT's continued to slump. 

*****************

We've got our data for the month of March.  We had the market up a nice 10.6% for the period.

Stocks with a high "perceived risk" (volatility divided by price) were strongest...up a massive 35.2%.  Stocks that entered the month trading well below their 100 day averages showed impressive gains.  Stocks with a strong February tendency toward gains in the afterhours faired well.  Cheap stocks and long term losers round out the list.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  REIT's were quite weak, however...up a mere 1.8%.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Utilities did not impress.  Expensive stocks underperformed.

Mar 31:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.8%.  Separation between groups was 7.2%.

REIT's were strongest today...up 6.6%.  Stocks trading well below their 20 day averages gained nicely.  Three month losers also fared well.  Volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, pharmaceuticals tended toward small losses...down .2%.  Yesterday's big winners did not impress today. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 30:  The Dow lost 3.3%, Nasdaq 2.8%.  Our own take on the market had it down 4.1%.  Separation between groups was 9.6%.

Stocks with a recent tendency to lose in the afterhours were strongest today, losing a mere .4%.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Stocks that have performed well over the last year (losing no more than 1%) outperformed. 

On the negative side, stocks trading well over their 20 days averages lost a big 10%.  Volatile stocks suffered.  Stocks with large yearlong losses continued downward. 

The above trends are negative as indicators of the next session.

Mar 27:  The Dow lost 1.9%, Nasdaq 2.6%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.6%.  Separation between groups was 6.8%.

Non-volatiles were strongest today, losing as little as .5%.  Free agents hung in well.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session outperformed.

The weakest stocks were smallish-caps (not the absolute smallest), losing as much as 7.3%.  Monday's big winners reversed in a big way.  Banks lost. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 26:  The Dow gained 2.3%, Nasdaq 3.8%.  Our own take on the market had it up 4.9%.  Separation between groups was 8.2%.

Stocks with a strong recent tendency to gain in the afterhours were strongest today...up 10.4%.  Volatile stocks again performed strongly.  Cheap stocks outperformed.  Stocks with large losses over three months to one year gained nicely.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Even the least volatile stocks managed to average 1.9% gains.  Utilities were weak.  Large caps did not impress. 

Bearing in mind that Friday sessions are the least predictable, the above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 25:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq .8%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.4%.  Separation between groups was 7.6%.

Volatile stocks were strongest today...up as much as 7.7%.  Stocks trading well below their 100 day averages were strong.  Monday's big winners won again.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session eked out gains of .1%.  Utilities were weak.  Large caps and expensive stocks did not impressive.  Non-volatiles underperformed the market.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 24:  The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq 2.5%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.3%.  Separation between groups was 9.3%.

Despite the negativity, a few groups finished with decent gains.  The list was led by stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session...up 1.6%.  Naturally, then, yesterday's losers tended to gain.  Free agents finished with gains.  Non-volatiles avoided large losses.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were hit hard...down 7.5%.  REIT's and banks suffered.  Stocks with good momentum over the previous week were selected out for punishment.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 23:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 6.8%.  Our own non-weighted take on the market (which gives small caps more "influence") had the market up a massive 9.2%.  If your small caps gained less than, say, 10% today, you shouldn't be overly pleased.  Separation between groups was 14.4%.

Stocks with big losses (at least 11.8%) last Friday stampeded back today...up 18%.  Stocks with large losses over the last three months weren't far behind.  REIT's gained nicely.  Volatile stocks outperformed the market.

We didn't identify any losing groups.  The worst you could do was to hold "free agents", which gained a "mere" 3.5%.  Not surprisingly, non-volatiles lagged.  Stocks with strong yearlong performances (losing no more than 5%) underperformed.  Last Friday's gainers did not impress.

Bearing in mind that our prediction system breaks down to some extent following sessions with massive gains or losses, the above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 20:  The Dow lost 1.7%, Nasdaq 1.8%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.1%.  Separation between groups was 9.4%.

Small caps were strongest today...up 2.3%.  Cheap stocks fared well.  Non-volatiles finished with minimal losses.  Stocks with weak volume over the last couple weeks outperformed.

On the negative side, REIT's again dominated the action, this time losing 7.1%.  Stocks with big losses on Monday (largely REIT's) lost again.  Yesterday's big losers also continued sliding.

The above trends are negative as indicators of the next session's direction.

Mar 19:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 10.8%.

Oils were strongest today...up 4.8%.  Metals and mining stocks followed oils, as they often do. Stocks with big losses over the last month tended to fare well.

It has been a wild week for REIT's.  Today they led losers...down 6%.  Banks tended toward weakness as well.  Stocks with big losses last Monday repeated the performance. 

The above trends are just slightly negative for the next session. 

Mar 18:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 2%.  Our own take on the market had it up 4%.  Separation between groups was 7.9%.

Stocks with high book values relative to stock price were strongest today...up 9.1%.  Those with large losses over the last three months fared well.  Volatile stocks outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money today.  Biotechs lagged, gaining a mere 1.1%.  Non-volatiles, of course, couldn't keep up with the general market.  Expensive stocks did not impress.  Stocks that have avoided losses over the last year underperformed.

The above trends are positive as indicators of the next session.

Mar 17:  The Dow gained 2.5%, Nasdaq 4.1%.  Separation between groups was 6.4%.

REIT's bounced back and more from yesterday's losses...up 8.4%.  Most winning trends were a consequence of the strong focus on REIT's.  Stocks with a large high/close differential in the previous session, for example, gained nicely.  Stocks with big losses over the last year fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Utilities were weakest, gaining a mere 2%.  Non-volatile stocks lagged.  Expensive stocks did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 16:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 9.6%.

Cheap, volatile stocks were strongest today...up 2.1%.  Stocks trading well under their 100 day averages fared well.  Oils gained nicely. 

On the negative side, REIT's were by far the biggest losers...down 7.5%.  Stocks with big dividends (largely REIT's) came in a distant second, with losses of 3.8%.  Last Tuesday's big gainers tended towards weakness.

The above trends are mixed as predictors of the next session.  The gains in volatile stocks and long term losers are nice to see, but the general negativity of the market isn't.

Mar 13:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 4.4%.

Stocks with big losses (at least 41%) over the last month were strongest today...up 2.8%.  Banks fared well.  Volatile stocks and biotechs outperformed.

On the losing side, REIT's led the way...down 1.6%.  Stocks trading well over their 20 day averages tended toward losses. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 12:  The Dow gained 3.5%, Nasdaq 4%.  Our own take on the market had it up a massive 6.5%.  Separation between groups was 11.4%.

Stocks with big gains on Tuesday were strongest today...up a big 13.6%.  Banks gained nicely.  Stocks with big losses over the last month or quarter showed double-digit gains.  Volatiles were also included in the mix of outperforming stocks.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Utilities were weakest...up a mere 2.2%.  Free agents did not impress.  Non-volatiles, of course, failed to keep up with the market.  Expensive stocks underperformed.

Bearing in mind that Friday often reverses the trends of the previous few days, the above trends are positive for the next session.

Mar 11:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq 1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .3%.  Separation between groups was 7.9%.

One of our proprietary indicators ("big_pslice") predicted gains as high as 3.4%.  Outside of those indicators, stocks with big losses last Friday fared well. 

On the negative side, stocks with big gains last Friday were quite weak...down 4.3%.  Yesterday's big gainers did not prosper either.  Not surprisingly, then, REIT's tended to lose. 

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session.

Mar 10:  The Dow gained 5.8%, Nasdaq 7.1%.  Our own take on the market had it up 8.3%.  Separation between groups was 13.9%.

Stocks with large yearlong losses (of at least 88%) were strongest today...up an average of 16.2%.  Volatiles fared well.  Last Thursday's big losers reversed nicely.  Banks and REIT's were strong, of course. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Free agents were weakest, gaining a mere 2.3%.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Utilities failed to impress.  Stocks with large gains over the last year underperformed.

Bearing in mind that our prediction system breaks down following unusually large gains or drops in the market, the above trends must be considered positive.

Mar 9:  The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 5.1%.

Only a couple groups finished the day with gains.  Stocks with large dividends led the way...up .1%.  REIT's finished flat.  Large caps fared well, as suggested by the performance of the Dow.  Stocks trading well over their prominent resistance levels outperformed.

On the negative side, small caps were weak...down as much as 4.9%.  Computer-related stocks underperformed. 

The above trends are negative as indicators of the next session.

Mar 6:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq lost .4%.  Separation between groups was 5.8%.

Small, illiquid stocks were strongest today...up as much as 3%.  Stocks with nice gains on Tuesday continued upward.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours lost 2.7%.  Stocks with large yearlong losses continued the weakness. 

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the market's direction.

Mar 5:  The Dow lost 4.1%, Nasdaq 4%.  Our own take on the market had it down 6.5%.  Separation between groups was 10%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile...down 2.8%.  Stocks with strong monthlong performances (losses no worse than 6%) or yearlong performances (losses no worse than 10%) held up well.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

Stocks with large monthlong losses were weakest today...down as much as 12.8%.  Stocks with large quarterly or yearly losses weren't far behind.  Volatile stocks were hit hard.

Bearing in mind that, of all days of the week, Friday is most likely to reverse the trends of the previous days, the above trends are negative as indicators of the next session's direction.

Mar 4:  The Dow gained 2.2%, Nasdaq 2.5%.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.4%.  Separation between groups was 8.4%.

Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their lows were strongest today...up 9%.  The trend was quite significant.  Stocks with large yearlong losses reversed the trend, at least temporarily.  Cheap stocks fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The weakest stocks were those with nice momentum over the last few session...up a mere .7%.  Banks were weak.  Non-volatiles did not partake in the upward action.  Free agents lagged. 

Mar 3:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .2%.  We had the market down 1.7%.  Separation between groups was 6%.

Biotechs were strongest today...up .7%.  Large caps finished flat.  Oils held up well.  Stocks with nice gains over the last month to year outperformed. 

On the negative side, stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours lost a good 5.2%.  Stocks with large losses over the last quarter to year were hit hard.  Volatile stocks and banking stocks must also be included in our list of weak positions.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Mar 2:  The Dow lost 4.2%, Nasdaq 4%.  Our own take on the market had it down a whopping 6.5%.  Separation between groups was 9%.

Stocks with strong yearlong performances (down less than 6%) lost a "mere" 3%.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Networking stocks outperformed.  Expensive stocks fared well.

Stocks with big yearlong losses continued down the path of oblivion...-12%.  Stocks with large monthlong losses also suffered.  Volatile stocks were hit hard.  Oils were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  The only positive note is the fact that our prediction system becomes less reliable after huge market swings.

Feb 28 (Sat):  We've got our data for the month of February.  Our own take on the market had it down 14.2%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained in value over the month.  Outside of shorting or staying out of the market, the best strategy was to buy semiconductors, which lost a mere 5%.  Retails held up well.  Moderately volatile stocks outperformed stocks at both extremes of volatility.

On the negative side, stocks with large yearlong losses continued to drop, falling as much as 28%!  Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours were victimized.  Those with a series of losses at the end of January continued the streak.  Volatiles were hurt.

Interestingly, a number of the above observations reverse if you adjust for volatility.  For example, volatile stocks and yearlong losers outperformed most other groups, while non-volatiles were surprisingly negative.  This is, of course, little solace to anyone who lost real money in these groups.

Feb 27:  The Dow lost 1.7%, Nasdaq 1%.  Separation between groups was 8.1%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Retails finished with gains...up .7%.  Semiconductors more or less broke even; thus Nasdaq's relative strength.  Stocks with losses between 11-25% over the last year held up well.

On the negative side, volatile stocks were banged up...down an ugly 7.2%.  Stocks with large losses over the last year continued downward.  Banks did not impress.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 26:  The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq 2.4%.  Separation between groups was 6.8%.

Oils were clearly the strongest group today...up 2.1%.  Oddly, on a day when the general markets showed significant losses, volatile stocks tended to finish with gains.  Banking stocks broke even.

REIT's led losers...down 4.7%.  Biotechs were weak...the first time we've seen these stocks in the losing column for quite a while. 

The above trends are mixed as indicators for the next session.  The general losses are bearish, but the gains in volatile stocks are positive.

Feb 25:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.9%.  That's because we don't weight stocks via capitalization as most indices do, and small-caps were quite weak.  Separation between groups was 7.1%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  Banks were strongest, losing a mere .8%.  Large caps outperformed.  Non-volatiles beat the market. 

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session reversed...down 7.9%.  Cheap stocks and small caps lost significantly.  Volatile stocks were hurt.  Yearlong losers continued the recent trend of losing in excess of the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 24:  The Dow gained 3.3%, Nasdaq 3.9%.  Our own take on the market had it up 5.6%.  Separation between groups was 12.4%.

Stocks with a high "perceived risk" value (a cheap price combined with high volatility) were strongest today...up 13.5%.  Stocks with massive yearlong losses (at least 88%) gained nicely.  Cheap stocks fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Non-volatiles were weakest, gaining a mere 1.1%.  Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session underperformed the market. 

Bearing in mind that our prediction system tends to break down following monstrous gains or losses in the general market, the above trends must be considered positive for the next session.

Feb 23:  The Dow lost 3.4%, Nasdaq 3.7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 8.4%.  Separation between groups was 9.1%.

Rather surprisingly, cheap stocks were strongest in today's ugly environment...down a mere .4%.  Biotechs and computer networking stocks held up well.  Free agents avoided massive losses.  Stocks with gains or minimal losses over the last year outperformed.  Non-volatiles, of course, held up well.

Stocks with big losses last Tuesday were weakest today...down a big 8.7%.  Stocks with big yearlong losses continued to be victimized.  Oils and banks were hurt. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.  If you're looking for reasons for optimism, however, we should point out that our prediction system weakens in the face of monstrous losses in the general market.  Also, it's nice to see that volatile stocks weren't singled out for monstrous losses in today's session.

Feb 20:  The Dow lost 1.3%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 9.7%.

Despite the general losses in the market, some groups showed nice gains.  The list was topped by stocks whose movements are strongly correlated with the movements of other stocks (a high "corr" value)...up 4.2%.  REIT's followed closely.  Stocks with nice gains on Wednesday fared well.  Monday's big losers also outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with short term averages well below their longer term averages were weak...down as much as 5.6%.  Yearlong losers were hurt.  Volatile stocks lost in excess of the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 19:  The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2%.  Separation between groups was 7.4%.

Oils fared well...up .3%.  Stocks with strong momentum over the last week finished above water.  The least volatile of stocks were flat.  Retails outperformed. 

On the negative side, stocks with particularly low p/e ratios were weak...down 7%.  Brokerages were hurt.  Tuesday's big losers repeated the ugliness.  Stocks with large losses over the last year underperformed the market.  Volatiles were punished.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  The only bright spot would be the fact that Fridays have a tendency to reverse the trends of the previous four sessions.

Feb 18:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 4.7%.

REIT's were clearly the strongest group today...up .8%.  Large caps and expensive stocks outperformed.  Moderately volatile stocks finished with gains.

On the negative side, stocks with large yearlong losses were hit again...down as much as 3.8%.  Oils were hurt.  Stocks with a recent tendency to finish near their lows were weak.  Volatile stocks lost in excess of the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 17:  The Dow lost 3.8%, Nasdaq 4.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 5.2%.  Separation between groups was 7.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that finished the session with gains.  The strongest stocks were those with strong performances (up at least 15%) over the last year...down 2.1%.  Retails held up well.  Not surprisingly, non-volatiles outperformed the general market.

Stocks with big losses last Tuesday were weakest...down 10%.  Stocks with large losses over the last year were hurt badly.  Volatiles suffered. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.  The one positive note is that our prediction scheme breaks down a bit following sessions of extreme losses or gains.

Feb 13:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 6.2%.

Semiconductors enjoyed a rare day at the top of the heap...up 1.4%.  Stocks with strong performances over the last week to month continued to gain.  Oils finished with gains.

On the losing side, REIT's were hurt...down 4.7%.  Not surprisingly then, dividend payers showed rather large losses.  Banks did not impress. 

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Feb 12:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .7%.  Separation between groups was 4.2%.

Retails were strongest today...up 2.2%.  Stocks with strong performances over the last month or so continued upwards.  Biotechs outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with large losses (at least 40%) over the last month continued downwards...-2.2%.  Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours sessions were weak.  Volatile stocks finished with losses.  Dividend payers did not impress.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session...we don't like to see volatiles being singled out for losses.

Feb 11:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 5.6%.

Yesterday's big losers reversed...up 3.6%.  Banks and insurance outfits showed healthy gains.  Last Friday's big winners gained again.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Cheap stocks and small caps tended toward losses.  Utilities did not impress.  Stocks with weakness in this time slot over the last three years were weak yet again.

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session.

Feb 10:  The Dow lost 4.6%, Nasdaq 4.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 5.4%.  Separation between groups was 9.5%.

Free agents held up best today...down a mere 1.7%.  Non-volatiles, of course, avoided massive losses.  Biotechs outperformed...it's rather odd how well these non-profitable, volatile equities have managed in the last few months.  Stocks with strong performances over the last year beat the market.

The weakest stocks were those with strong performances over the last week...down as much as 10.8%.  Last Friday's big gainers reversed in a big way.  Stocks with big yearlong losses continued sliding.  Volatiles were hurt.  REIT's suffered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 9:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 5.8%.

Despite the flatness in the general market, stocks with large yearlong losses performed quite nicely...up 4.1%.  Volatiles picked up where they left off on Friday.  Stocks with big losses in January also tended to reverse.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance occurred.  Stocks with average numbers of institutional holders were weakest...down 1.7%.  Retails were weak.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Feb 6:  The Dow gained 2.7%, Nasdaq 3%.  Our own take on the market had it up 4%.  Separation between groups was 8.3%.

Volatile stocks were strongest today...up a big 9.3%.   Stocks with large losses over the last three months were strong.  Stocks that have strongly lagged their best trading partners over the last month also gained nicely.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost today.  The weakest stocks were the least volatile...up as little as .9%.  Utilities did not impress.  Stocks with big gains over the last month to three months lagged.  Expensive stocks round out the list of underperformers.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 5:  The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 2.1%.  Separation between groups was 5.3%.

Another positive session without strongly-focused gains in any particular group.  Retails fared well...up 3.2%.  Yesterday's big winners repeated the performance.  Tuesday's big winners also outperformed.

On the negative side, REIT's were by far the biggest losers...down 2%.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Free agents didn't impress either.

Bearing in mind that Friday often reverses the trends of the previous few days, the above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 4:  The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 5.8%.

Metals and mining stocks were strongest today...up .8%.  Oils weren't far behind.  Utilities held up well.

On the negative side, stocks with short-term averages well below longer-term averages were weak...down as much as 5%.  Stocks with large losses over the last 3 months continued downwards.  Volatile stocks and cheap stocks underperformed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Feb 3:  The Dow gained 1.8%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Our own take on the market had it up .7%.  Separation between groups was 5.7%.

A number of normally dowdy industries (automotive parts, mobile homes, restaurants) outperformed today...up as much as 2.6%.  Large-caps fared well.

On the negative side, stocks trading well below their 20 day averages were weak...down 2.9%.  Banks were hurt, again.  Stocks with high recent volatility suffered in excess of the market.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session...the general gains are nice, but the individual trends signal a lack of risk-taking behavior.

Feb 2:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq gained 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 6.9%.

Small caps, though not the smallest of small caps, fared well today...up as much as 4.7%.  Stocks with big gains last Tuesday repeated the performance. 

On the negative side, stocks with strong tendencies to gain in the afterhours sessions lost 2.2%.  Stocks with large losses in January continued to drop.  Oils were weak.  Large caps finished in negative territory, as might be surmised from the Dow's weakness relative to Nasdaq.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Jan 31 (Sat):  We've got our data for the month of January.  Our own take on the market had it down 10.2%.

Free agents led gainers...up 10.9%.  Just a smidgeon behind free agents are cheap stocks.  Small caps were quite strong.  Biotechs gained nicely.  Stocks with big losses (at least 2.6%) two sessions before the first session of January avoided losses.

On the losing side, we have banks leading the way...down a massive 28.8%.  Stocks with strong December performances reversed.   

Jan 30:  The Dow lost 1.8%, Nasdaq 2.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.6%.  Separation between groups was 5.5%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  Biotechs were strongest, losing a mere .4%.  Stocks with weak volume in the previous session held up well.  Yesterday's big gainers fared well.  Tech stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were pummeled...down 5.9%.  Volatiles were hit hard.  Stocks with large losses over the last year or quarter fell in excess of the market. 

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Jan 29:  The Dow lost 2.7%, Nasdaq 3.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 4.6%.  Separation between groups was 8.1%.

Free agents were strongest today...down as little as .6%.  Utilities and biotechs held up well.  Non-volatiles, not surprisingly, outperformed the market.  Stocks with strong yearlong performances fared well.

On the negative side, REIT's were pummeled...down 8.7%.  Stocks with big gains in the previous session were hurt.  Stocks with large losses over the last quarter to year continued downward in a big way.

Bearing in mind that Fridays often reverse the trends of the previous day, the above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 28:  The Dow gained 2.5%, Nasdaq 3.5%.  We had the market up 4.2%.  Separation between groups was 8%.

Stocks trading well under their dominant resistance levels were strongest today...up as much as 8.7%.  Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners of late were strong.  Volatiles outperformed.  Banks moved nicely.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The weakest stocks were simply the least volatile...up .6%.  Utilities did not impress.  Stocks with relatively strong performances over the last quarter to year underperformed the market.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 27:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.3%.  Separation between groups was a meager 3.8%.

Biotechs led the way today...up 3%.  Investment and consumer services also fared well. 

On the negative side, stocks trading well below their 20 day averages were weak...down as much as .8%.  Stocks with large gains over the last week also finished with losses. Oils lost.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.. 

Jan 26:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .8%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 5.4%.

Small caps, if not the smallest caps, were strong today...up as much as 4.1%.  Biotechs fared well.  Stocks with weak recent volume outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with large losses last week continued to drop...down 1.3%.  Volatile stocks tended to lose...a bit unusual in a winning session.  Banks finished with losses.  Large caps were weak.

The above trends are neutral for the next session...we're not pleased to see the losses in volatiles.

Jan 23:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq gained .8%.  Separation between groups was a light 4.9%.

REIT's were strongest today, making a minor comeback from large weeklong losses...up 3.3%.  Given the big losses in the group over the last year, it's not surprising to see yearlong losers faring well. 

Losers were led by one of our proprietary indicators ("stock_ind")...down 1.6%.  Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their highs were weak.  Stocks with weak volume in the previous session did not impress.  Non-volatiles tended toward losses.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 22:  The Dow lost 1.3%, Nasdaq 2.8%.  Separation between groups was 8.8%.

Non-volatiles were strongest today...down as little as .4%.  Retails and utilities held up well.  Yesterday's losers outperformed.

Stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were weakest today...down 9.2%.  Volatiles were hurt.  Banks were punished.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to quarter continued to drop.

The above trends should be considered negative for the next session, though Fridays often reverse the patterns of previous sessions.

Jan 21:  The Dow gained 3.5%, Nasdaq 4.6%.  Our own take on the market hit it up 5.7%.  Separation between groups was 11.9%.

Stocks with big losses in the previous session were strongest today...up 13.5%.  Recent losers in general fared well.  REIT's turned around yesterday's losses. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money today.  The weakest stocks were simply the least volatile...up as little as 1.5%.  Free agents did not impress.  Utilities underperformed.  Stocks with strong performances over the last week or so lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 20:  The Dow lost 4%, Nasdaq 5.8%.  Our own take on the market had it down a whopping 7.5%.  Separation between groups was 10.3%.

Non-volatiles were strongest today...down a "mere" 2.7%.  Utilities held up well.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session fared well.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

The big losers were REIT's...down 12.9%.  Many trends followed from there...yearlong losers, for example, were hit hard.  Stocks that finished well above their lows in the previous session reversed.  Volatiles were punished.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though our prediction formula tends to break down in the face of extreme market sessions.

Jan 18 (Sun):  We've got our data for the first half of January.  It doesn't include last Friday's session.  With that in mind, we have the market down about 5.8%.

Despite the market weakness, cheap stocks showed some very nice gains...up 12.5%.  Free agents gained nicely.  Small caps outperformed.  Further down the list, we have the "classic" January effect asserting itself, with strong performances in 2008's big losers.  December's big losers tended to reverse as well.

On the negative side, stocks with strong performances in December were weakest...down a big 17.7%.  Banks weren't far behind.  REIT's did not impress.

Jan 16:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 6.1%.

REIT's were strongest today...up 3.6%.  Stocks with big losses in this time slot last year tended to fare well.  Moderately volatile stocks outperformed both extremes.

On the negative side, banks continued their losing streak...down 2.5%.  Stocks with large increases in volume over the last few days tended toward weakness.  Small, illiquid stocks lost money.  Yesterday's big winners were flat.

The above trends are positive for the next session. 

Jan 15:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Stocks with big losses last Friday were strongest today...up 4.4%.  Yesterday's losers also tended to reverse in a market-beating manner.  Retails and REIT's fared well. 

On the negative side, stocks with big losses over the last 3 months continued to get hit...down 1.7%.  Yearlong losers were also weak.  Banks suffered. Volatile stocks finished with losses.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session.  The general gains are nice, but the weakness in volatiles is a bit worrisome.

Jan 14:  The Dow lost 2.9%, Nasdaq 3.7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 4.6%.  Separation between groups was 6.6%.

Small, illiquid stocks seemed to get ignored today, losing a mere 1.8%.  Non-volatiles, of course, held up fairly well.  Utilities and medical technology stocks outperformed.  Stocks with strong performances over the last week fared well.

On the negative side, Monday's big losers were weakest...down 8.2%.  Stocks on a recent losing streak continued sliding.  Volatile stocks were punished in excess of the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 13:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq gained .5%.  Separation between groups was a mild 4.2%.

REIT's were strongest today...up 2.9%.  Stocks trading well below their 20 day averages fared well.  Oils were strong. 

On the negative side, stocks with high institutional ownership (relative to capitalization) were weakest...down 1.4%.  Stocks with strong performances over the last month tended to reverse.  Utilities slumped.  Despite the general gains, stocks with high recent volatility underperformed the market.

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session.

Jan 12:  The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq 2.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.3%.  Separation between groups was 9%.

We only identified one group that gained today...the least volatile 4% of stocks emerged with .1% gains.  Utilities showed minimal losses.  Stocks trading above their prominent resistance levels tended to outperform.

On the negative side, stocks with high recent volatility suffered most...down 8.9%.  Those with large yearlong or quarter-long losses continued to sink. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 9:  The Dow lost 1.6%, Nasdaq 2.8%.  Our own take on the market had it down a big 3.9%. Separation between groups was 5.8%.

The smallest, most illiquid of stocks actually held up well today...down .8%.  Free agents, non-volatiles, and cheap stocks outperformed.  Expensive stocks also beat the market.  Utilities fared well.

Stocks held by large number of institutions (relative to market cap) were weakest...down as much as 6.6%.  Moderately cheap (e.g. between $3.5-$4.5) stocks tended towards weakness.  The same goes for stocks of small, but not micro, capitalization.  Volatile stocks lost in excess of the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Jan 8:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq gained 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 5.5%.

Stocks with low cash positions were strongest today...up 5.2%. The trend was not significant, however.  Cheap stocks fared well.  Monday's big winners repeated the performance.

Only a few groups actually lost money.  Stocks with large numbers of institutional holders relative to capitalization tended to lose...down as much as .3%.  Non-volatiles were weak. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Jan 7:  The Dow lost 2.7%, Nasdaq 3.2%.  Separation between groups was 5.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.   Small, illiquid stocks fared best...down a mere .6%.  Free agents held up well.  Non-volatiles beat the market.

Stocks with big gains over the last few sessions were weakest...down as much as 6.1%.  Oils and metals and mining stocks dropped in excess of the market. 

The above trends are negative for the next session, though we're pleased to see that volatile stocks weren't excessively punished in today's session.

Jan 6:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.8%.  Separation between groups was 11.1%.

Stocks trading well below their most prominent resistance levels were strongest today...up a very impressive 10.5%.  These stocks, of course, overlap strongly with yearlong and quarter-long losers.  Volatile stocks were quite strong.

We only identified a few groups that actually lost money...non-volatiles were down .7%.  Utilities finished the session with losses.  Stocks with strong performances over the last year tended toward weakness.  Expensive stocks did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Jan 5:  The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 8.2%.

Cheap stocks outperformed other stocks by a fairly wide margin...up 6%.  Yearlong losers gained nicely, as well as volatiles.  Last Friday's big gainers continued to gain.

On the losing side, regional banks tended towards weakness...down 2.2%.  Stocks with strong, if not exceptional, performances over the last year lost value. 

The above trends as mixed as predictors of the next session's direction.  We'd lean in the direction of positivity.

Jan 1:  We've got our data for the fourth quarter.  Despite some decent December gains, our own take on the market had it down a whopping 28% for the period.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses.  The best stocks were simply the least volatile...down as little as 15.7%.  Despite the woes of some big name operations, insurance companies held up well.  Utilities outperformed.  Stocks that entered the quarter with modest gains over the last year (2-14%) avoided massive losses.

On the negative side, oils were hit hard...down 44.1%!  Volatile stocks suffered.  Stocks with big losses in Q3 continued to drop. 

*************

We've got our data for the month of December.  Our own take on the market had it up nearly 5%.

Stocks that finished November well below their 20 day averages were strongest...up 15.2%.  Volatile stocks outperformed.  Insurance stocks tended to outperform the market. 

On the losing side, oils were by far the weakest group...down 8%.  Cheap stocks tended to lose money.  Non-volatiles tended to underperform the market.  Transportation-related stocks were flat.

***************

We've got our data for the full year 2008.  The Russell 3000 lost 39%, the Dow 34%.  Our own take on the market had it down 36%.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses over the year.  The strongest stocks were "predicted" by our proprietary indicators.  For example, purchasing stocks with a low "vslice97" value would have resulted in a loss of 14.7%.  Outside of the proprietary indicators, regional banks fared well...down a mere 24%.  That may sound odd, but it's true!

The big losers were stocks with very strong performances in 2007.  Stocks that gained at least 65% in 2007 reversed to the tune of 54% in 2008.  That's a net loss, if you think about it.  Volatile stocks were hurt, though they held up well after risk-adjustment.  2007's big losers did not escape punishment either.  In terms of industries, oils were weakest.

Dec 31:  The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.7%...quite a discrepancy!  Separation between groups was 7.9%.

Volatile stocks led the way today...up a big 9%.  Stocks that strongly lagged behind their best trading partner in the previous session recovered.  Stocks with big losses over the last quarter or year ended the year on an up note.

We didn't identify any groups that actually closed the session with losses.  The weakest stocks were simply the least volatile, gaining as little as 1.1%.  Large caps lagged.  Stocks with solid performances over the last quarter tended towards sluggishness.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Copyright © 2010 MarketSynopsis.com. All rights reserved.