July 1:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .5%.  Our own take on the market had it down .1%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Banks, last quarter's big loser, were strong today...up 1.5%.  Otherwise, the positive side of the market showed little focus.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session reversed...down as much as 2.8%.  Volatiles were hurt.  Despite the strength in banks, stocks with huge yearlong losses continued to get hurt.  Small caps and cheap stocks lost the brief momentum they had yesterday.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

****************

We've got our data for the second quarter.  We have the market down about 3.3% over the period...not so bad if you ignore June's horrid performance (below).

Predictably, oils were the strongest group...up a monstrous 30.5%!  Stocks that finished the first quarter with a series of gains were strong.  Yearlong winners, of course, fared well.  Metals and mining stocks shouldn't be ignored either.

On the negative side, we have banks...down a horrid 28.2%.  Stocks that finished the first quarter with a series of big losses were extremely weak.

*******

We've got our data for June.  Our own take on the market had it down a big 10.8% for the month.

Oils topped our list of groups that actually gained over the period...up 5.7%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains and stocks trading well over long-term resistance levels fared well.  Many of these stocks, of course, are oils.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partners in May continued to prosper.

On the losing side, where most stocks landed, stocks with big losses in May continued suffering in a rather extreme way...down as much as 25.7%!  Not too far behind were banks.  Stocks with big quarterly or yearly losses (largely banks) continued to suffer.  Stocks with a strong tendency to rack up gains in the afterhours fared poorly.

The trends toward continued gains in yearlong winners and losses in yearlong losers are fairly typical for the month of June.  Assuming things unfold in standard fashion, then, one shouldn't not expect any dramatic reversals in July.  More than likely, we'll see more of the same.

June 30:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost 1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.1%.  Separation between groups was a big 5.6%.

Cheap stocks were clearly the strongest stocks today...up 1.8%.  Extreme small caps fared well.  Oils gained.

On the negative side, banks lost a big 3.8% to finish out the first half of the year.   Moderately small cap issues fell. 

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session's direction.

June 27:  The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 5.3%.

Stocks with big yearlong gains topped our list of winners today...up 1.9%.  Oils are always suspect as a big driver when yearlong gainers come out on top, but oils lagged behind with 1.1% gains.  Stocks with nice gains over a month or a quarter also fared well.

On the losing side, stocks with high recent volatility dropped a big 3.4%.  Last Monday's big losers returned for a fresh spanking.  Losers over the last quarter to year were weak.  Cheap stocks underperformed the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 26:  The Dow dropped 3%, Nasdaq 3.3%.  Separation between groups was 4.5%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today.  Stocks with big yearlong gains were strongest...down .7%.  Oils lost about 1%.  Biotechs held up well.  Free agents avoided major losses.

On the losing side, stocks with big losses last Friday took another round of heavy hits...down 5.2%.  Brokerages suffered.  Stocks that have been particularly volatile of late underperformed the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 25:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 4.1%.

Retails were strongest today...up 2.7%.  Stocks trading well under their 20 day averages fared well.  Losers, recent and longterm, outperformed the market.  Volatiles gained nicely.

On the losing side, oils dropped 1.3%.  Naturally, then, stocks with large gains over the last quarter to year figured heavily in our list of losers.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

June 24:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Banks showed some rare positivity today...up .3%.  REIT's also fared well.  Stocks that heavy significantly underperformed their trading partners over the last month tended to hold up well.

On the negative side, oils reversed yesterday's big gains...down 3.1%.  Naturally, then, stocks with big gains over the last quarter to year tended toward weakness as well.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 23:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .8%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.2%.  Separation between groups was a big 6.8%, largely because of focused gains in oils.

Oils gained 3%.  Yearlong winners (largely oils) were a distant second at 1.8%.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

On the losing side, volatiles dropped a big 3.8%.  Banks were weak.  Stocks with large losses over time spans of anywhere from a week to a year tended to suffer.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  The losses in volatiles are particularly worrisome.

June 20:  The Dow lost 1.8%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Separation between groups was a mere 3%...despite the relatively large losses, stocks tended to move in herd fashion.

We only identified one winning group...stocks with a high-close differential between 4 and 5.7% gained about .1%.  Free agents held up well.  Oils lost a mere .5%.  Cheap stocks and extreme small caps outperformed...it's possible that such groups will be victimized in future sessions.

Stocks with big gains yesterday reversed...down as much as 2.9%.  Brokerages and banks were weak. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 19:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Stocks trading well below their prominent resistance levels fared well today...up 2.1%.  Transportation-related stocks enjoyed a rare day near the top of our list of winners.  Retails also outperformed.

On the negative side, oils were clearly the big losers...down 1.6%.  Naturally, then, stocks with big gains over the last three months to one year also tended to lose.  Banks finished the day with losses.

Bearing in mind that Friday often reverses trends, the above trends are positive for the next session.

June 18:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up .7%.  In fact, stocks with strong gains over anywhere from 5 days to a year tended to outperform.  Oils avoided losses.

On the negative side, we have the reverse of above...stocks with losses, especially longterm, lost in excess of the market.  Stocks trading well under their 100 day averages were weakest...down 2.8%.  Yesterday's big losers repeated the negativity.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 17:  The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 5.4%.

Oils were clearly the strongest group today...up 2%.  Not surprisingly, then, stocks with big yearlong gains fared well. 

On the losing side, banks were hit again...down 3.4%.  Brokerages and REIT's were also hit.  Stocks with big losses on a scale of anywhere from a month to a year suffered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 16:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq gained .8%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were strongest today...up 2.9%.  Volatiles fared well.  Yearlong losers were strong.  Cheap stocks outperformed. 

On the losing side, a number of dowdy industries like paper products and furniture failed to gain...down .6%.  Utilities lagged.  Non-volatiles finished with slight losses.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

June 14 (Sat): We've got our data for the first half of the month.  The general market was down 3.2%.

Despite the losses in the market, some winners emerged.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partners in the month of May gained nearly 5%. Oils were strong...up 3.7%.  Stocks with big longterm gains finished the 2 weeks with gains.

On the negative side, stocks with big losses in May got clobbered...down as much as 13.2%.  Banks followed, with losses around 11%.  Long term losers of all shades were hurt.

The trend toward gains in winners and losses in losers is typical at this time of year.  It's not the time to be bottom-fishing.  Some would argue that it's not a time to be in the market at all ("sell in May...").  If the markets evolve as usual, look for more of the same.

June 13:  The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 2.1%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with big 3 month gains were strongest today...up 3.3%.  Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strong.  Retails and brokerages prospered.  Tuesday's big losers reversed.

Only one group finished with losses today...regional banks lost around .2%.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

June 12:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Stocks with big losses last Friday were strong...up as much as 1.9%.  Tuesday's winners also managed nice gains.  Brokerages fared well. 

On the losing side, stocks trading well over their long-term resistance levels tended to get burned...down as much as 1.2%.  Oils were weak.  Expensive stocks were victimized.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

June 11:  The Dow lost 1.7%, Nasdaq 2.2%.  Separation between groups was 5%.

Only oils managed to eek out gains today...up .1%.  Stocks with strong recent momentum held up well.  Yearlong gainers (largely oils) had minimal losses.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

Losers were led by stocks whose short term averages are well below long term averages...down a big 4.9%.  Stocks with large one month losses followed closely.  Losers of just about every variety, in fact, continued downward. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 10:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .4%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Retails were fairly strong...up .5%.  Banks outperformed.  Non-volatiles fared well.

On the negative side, stocks with big yearlong gains topped the list...down 2.2%.  Oils followed closely.  Stocks with big 3 month losses were also weak.  Volatile stocks underperformed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 9:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq lost .6%.  Our own take on the market had it down .9%.  Separation between groups was 5%.

Stocks with big yearlong gains were strongest today...up 1.5%.  Not surprisingly, then, oils followed...up 1.2%.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with large one month losses were hit hard...down 3.5%.  Stocks with large losses over time scales of a week to a year were also weak.  Volatile stocks suffered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 6:  The Dow lost 3.1%, Nasdaq 3%.  Separation between groups was 4.4%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today.  Oils were strongest, losing a mere .7%.  Small, illiquid equities held up reasonably well, as did "free agents".  Given the strength in oils, it's not surprising that stocks with nice gains over the last month to year were relatively strong.

Stocks with big yearlong losses were weakest...down a big 5.1%.  Those with big monthlong losses followed closely.  Banks continued to get hurt.  Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners over the last month were weak...such stocks might make interesting candidates for a bounceback in the next session.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

June 5:  The Dow gained 1.7%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.2%.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Oils were clearly the strongest group today...up 4.6%.  Stocks with big 3 month gains (largely oils) followed.  Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session fared well.  Yesterday's big winners continued upwards.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The weakest stocks were simply the least volatile...up as little as 1%.  Utilities lagged.  Stocks with heavy volume in the previous session did not impress. 

The above trends are positive for the next session, though Friday does have a way of reversing trends.

June 4:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .9%.  Our own take on the market had it up .4%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on either side of the market today.  Stocks with big losses on Monday tended to reverse...up 1.5%.  Retails made a rare appearance as one of the winningest groups.  Software and IT stocks also fared well. 

On the negative side, stocks with big losses last Thursday lost again...down 1.4%.  Oils were weak.  Given the losses in oils, it's not surprising that stocks with big yearlong gains also tended to finish with losses.  Expensive ended the day in negative territory.

The above trends are neutral as predictors of the next session.

June 3:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%...the smallest gap we've seen for quite a while.

Construction-related stocks were strongest today...up 1%.  Stocks with very low p/e ratios fared well.  Friday's big losers reversed.  Stocks with particularly strong volume over the last three days outperformed.  Banks and yearlong losers round out the list of today's winners.

On the negative side, stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were victimized...down 1.1%.  Electric utilities stumbled.  Large-caps underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

June 2:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 4.1%.

Stocks trading well over long-term resistance levels were strongest today...up 1.3%.  Not surprisingly, oils followed closely behind.  Last Thursday's big losers reversed. 

On the negative side, small caps (not micro-caps) were weak...down as much as 2.8%.  Stocks with big gains last week tended to reverse.  Brokerages suffered.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partner in the last session got hurt today. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

May 31 (Sat):  We have our data for the month of May.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.4%.

Oils were strongest this month...up 12.5%.  Naturally, then, stocks with big yearlong gains fared well as well.  Scientific instrument makers and metals and mining stocks gained nicely.  Semiconductors outperformed.  Stocks with a strong history of gains in the month of May tended to repeat the performance.

Banks led losers...down 6.3%.  Stocks with big losses in April continued downwards.  Unusually for a month with strong gains in the general market, the most volatile stocks tended to lose money. 

The above trends are atypical for the month of May...we'll refrain from offering predictions for June based on this month's trends.

May 30:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .6%.  Separation between groups was 3.8%.

Free agents were strongest today...up 2.8%.  The trend was quite significant.  Small-caps outperformed.  Oils rebounded.  Not surprisingly, then, stocks with large yearlong gains outperformed the market.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session were strong.

On the negative side, stocks with big gains over the last week reversed...down .9%. Banks were weak, so it's no shock to see stocks with big yearlong losses in the losers column as well. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

May 29:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 4.4%.

Stocks with big losses on Monday led the way today...up 2.5%.  Stocks with big gains on Tuesday followed.  Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios fared well, as did yearlong losers. 

Oils were by far the losing-est group today...down 1.8%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains tended toward weakness. 

The above trends are positive for the next session, though Friday does have a way of reversing trends.

May 28:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 4.1%.

Stocks with big yearlong gains led the pack today...up 2.3%.  Metals and mining interest fared well, followed by oils. 

On the negative side, banks were the biggest losers...down as much as 1.8%.  Given their recent losses, it's not surprising, then, that stocks with large losses over the last month to quarter were weak as well.  Small caps underperformed.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

May 27:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Small-cap, if not micro-cap, stocks were strongest today...up 2.6%.  The trend was not particularly significant.  Last Tuesday's big losers rebounded, while last Thursday's big gainers continued upwards.

On the negative side, losers were led by stocks with a low value for "big_pslice"...down .8% (one of our proprietary indicators).  The trend was quite significant...we're not exactly sure what to make of it.  Oils lost a tad.  Micro-caps were weak.  Stocks with strong performances over the last month underperformed.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...the general gains are nice, but we'd like to see volatile stocks leading the pack.

May 23:  The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%...the market has been calming of late.

We didn't identify any groups that gained today.  Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partner were strongest...down .1%.  Stocks with strong recent volume held up well.  Wednesday's big gainers outperformed.

Stocks with a strong tendency to finish near their lows were weakest today...down 2.7%.  Tuesday's big losers plopped again.   Stocks with large losses over the last month to year were generally weak. 

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

May 5:  The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Oils were clearly the big winners today...up 2%.  Yearlong winners, not surprisingly, followed.  Metals and mining stocks fared well as well.

On the negative side, stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last year dropped further...down as much as 1.9%.  Retails were weak, reversing recent strength.  Last Thursday's big winners turned around.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

May 2:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Separation between groups was 3.7%.

Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses yesterday were strongest today...up 1.6%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains fared well.  Not surprisingly, then, oils outperformed.  Large caps fared well.

On the losing side, biotechs and drug operations were hurt...down 2%.  Banks suffered again.  Small caps and yearlong losers finished with losses.

The above trends are mixed as indicators for the next session...we'll refrain from speculating on the direction of the next session.

May 1:  The Dow gained 1.5%, Nasdaq 2.8%.  Separation between groups was 5.1%.

Investment and consumer services made a rare appearance in our tables as today's top performers...up at least 3.7%.  Banks rebounded.  Stocks with large losses yesterday were strong today. 

Oils were clearly the big losers...down 1.4%.  The next closest group, stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session, lost a mere .8%.  Given the strong performance of oils over the last year, it's not surprising that stocks with large yearlong gains were also weak today.

The above trends are positive, though not overwhelmingly so, for tomorrow's session.

****************

We've got our data for the month of April.  Our own take on the market had it up about 3.2%.

Winners were led by stocks that took big hits in the first quarter...up 9.5%.  Stocks with large gains over the last year, however, continued to outperform.  Oils, which have fared quite nicely over the last year, were a large component of these outperformers.  Large caps beat the general market, though cheap stocks did as well.  Stocks with a history of strength in April returned for an encore.

On the losing side, banks came out on top, again...down nearly 3%.  Small caps were generally weak.

The above trends are largely a repeat of April 2007 trends...strength in oils, yearlong winners, and large caps, and weakness in banks.  If we assume May 2008 mirrors May 2007, look for a positive market with strength in oils and transportation-related stocks.  Despite decent general gains, tech stocks did not impress in May 2007.   

April 30:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Stocks with a recent tendency to close near their lows were strongest today...up 1.1%.  Free agents gained.  Small caps and stocks with high recent volatility outperformed.  Oils were strong, reversing yesterday's losses.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Banks were weak...down 1.4%. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...despite the general losses, we like the fact that volatile stocks tended to finish with gains.

April 29:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 4%.

Retails were quite strong, gaining as much as 1.1%.  Stocks with big yearlong losses reversed.  Stocks with a 3 year history of large gains in this time slot fared well.  Non-volatiles outperformed, despite the Dow's performance.

On the negative side, oils suffered...down 2.9%.  Stocks with big yearlong or 3 month gains reversed.  Last Thursday's big losers continued losing.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session...we'll refrain from speculating on the direction of tomorrow's market.

April 28:  We're back from vacation.

The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%...it looks like the market has settled down quite a bit over our hiatus.

Stocks with big gains last Thursday repeated the performance today...up 2.2%.  Biotechs outperformed.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week to month were strong.  Volatiles made a strong showing.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Stocks with losses of 1.0-1.5% in the previous session continued sliding...down .6%.  Oils finished with losses.  Large caps were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

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