Sep 30:  We've got our data for the third quarter.  Our own take is that the market actually gained about 5% over the period.

The biggest gainers:  oils, again, up around 21% for the period.  Stocks that outperformed their best "trading pairs" by a big margin in June were quite strong.  Cheap stocks gained.

On the losing side, we find retails topping the list...down about 5%.  Banks were weak. 

The period does show some resemblance to Q3 1999.  Q4 1999, for what it's worth, was an extremely positive quarter, where stocks with strong Q3 performances continued to gain well in excess of the market.

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We've got our data for the month of September.  Our own take on the market has it up just a tad...about .2%.

The biggest gainers...oils, of course, up about 7.5%.  The groups that followed were largely, if not entirely a consequence of the gains in oils.  Yearlong gainers, for example, were up nicely.  Software stocks quietly had a decent month...up 4.5%.

On the losing side...stocks with large losses over the previous three months were down around 4%.  Retails were weak. 

Looking for historical matches,  no historical Septembers match up particularly strongly.  September 2002 and 1999 are stretches...unfortunately, October 2002 and 1999 evolved in differing ways.

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The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Semiconductors were our top gaining group today...up 1.5%.  Recent losers...particularly yesterday's...were strong.  Volatile stocks were strong.  Despite the difference between the Dow and Nasdaq, large caps fared well. 

Stocks with strong recent gains were weak today...down as much as .7%.  Oils and banks suffered.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

We'll be summarizing the quarter, and the month of September, as well as updating all our tests of seasonality and market trends in the next day or two...stay tuned.

Sep 29:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Software stocks were our strongest group today...up 2.4%.  Last Friday's and last Tuesday's losers were strong.

Stocks whose short term averages are well below the longer term averages dropped as much as .2%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to three months were weak.  Those that have lost in this time frame in the last three years continued to lose today.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 28:  The Dow gained .2%, while Nasdaq was flat.  Our own take on the market had it down nearly .4%...small caps were weak today.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Stocks with large losses last Friday led the way today...up 1%.  Oils and utilities were fairly strong.  Large-caps, and stocks with nice 1 to 3 month gains were strong as well.

On the losing side, stocks with fairly large yearlong losses (the largest 9-13% of losses in our database) were hurt to the tune of 1.9%.  Cheap stocks were weak.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Sep 27:  The Dow gained .1%, while Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

On the positive side, we identified groups that gained as much as 1.2%...but without any statistical significance at all.  Yesterday's winners and last Thursday's losers were strong.  Stocks with a historical tendency to gain in this time slot continued to gain.

On the losing side, semiconductors were weak, giving back Monday's gains.  It might be worthwhile to pay attention to this group as the fourth quarter approaches...historically, semiconductors have fared well in the fourth quarter.  What's more, there's a fairly strong tendency for late September losers to emerge as strong stocks in the fourth quarter.  Yearlong losers, REIT's, and cheap stocks round out our list of losers.

The above trends are flat to slightly negative for tomorrow's session.

Sep 26:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Oils were our strongest group today...up 2%, followed by metals and mining.  Yearlong gainers were strong, as might be expected.  Stocks that fared well this time last year were strong today.

On the weak side, non-volatiles lost around .2%.  Cheap stocks, small caps, and last Thursday's winners were all weak.  Semiconductors and computer hardware failed to partake in this minor rally.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Sep 23:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .3%.  Our own take on the market had it up .7%...small caps were relatively strong.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Stocks with recent losses topped our list of gainers today...up 2%.  Makers of scientific equipment were strong, as well as semiconductors.  Stocks that were weak this time last year gained nicely today.

On the losing side, oils lost as much as .7%.  Recent and one month gainers lost as well. 

The above trends are quite positive for the next session, though, of course, the price of oil trumps all.

Sep 22:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

There was a strong tendency for Tuesday's losers to come storming back today...the group was up 1.6%.  Retails rebounded from a series of recent losses.  One month and three month losers were strong. 

On the weak side, stocks with big gains over the last month lost as much as 1%.  Yearlong losers, however, were weak.  Despite some positivity in downtrodden stocks in general, cheap stocks were hurt.  Oils and metals and mining were weak.

The above trends are slightly positive for tomorrow's session.

Sep 21:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was a big 3.7%, with oils again taking responsibility.

Oils were the only group that walked away with gains...up .4%.  Groups that resisted losses well were largely oil-related...yearlong and monthlong winners, and metals and mining.  Large caps and expensive stocks held up well.

On the losing side, we have stocks trading well below their prominent resistance levels...down as much as 3.3%.  Long-term losers were weak.  The most volatile of stocks got damaged.

Note the continued polarity between yearlong winners (largely oils) and yearlong losers.  It occurs to us:  are yearlong losers largely oil-sensitive stocks (e.g. airline stocks)?  Eyeballing our daily data files, today's big losers seem to come from a motley selection of stocks, with the exception of the aforementioned retails.  We suspect that, for whatever reason, yearlong losers are getting picked on simply because they ARE yearlong losers, and not necessarily because they're oil-sensitive.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  Again, though, the action in oil trumps all, and we haven't a clue where oils will trade tomorrow.

Sep 20:  The Dow and Nasdaq lost .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Fundamental indicators came to the fore today...stocks with low institutional ownership (+.1%), negative cash positions, or negative p/e ratios fared well.  Despite the negativity in the general market, volatiles actually resisted losses well.  Cheap stocks held up well.

On the negative side, retails continued their recent slide...down 2.3%.  Metals and mining were weak.  Despite a number of interesting reversals today, one broad trend remained intact:  three month losers suffered. 

Though the losses today are negative in and of themselves, we'd favor an up market tomorrow.  That's because of the heartening activity in volatile issues today.

Sep 19:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Oils led the way today...up 2.3%.  Most of the winning trends today were consequences of these gains in oils...gains in yearlong winners, monthlong winners, last Wednesday's gainers, etc.

On the losing side, stocks with yearlong or monthlong losses were weak...down as much as 1.5%.  Retails got hurt.  Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot lost.

The above trends are negative for tomorrow's session.  One can take heart, however, in the fact that the above trends are largely dependent on the price of oil, and nothing else...if oils reverse, so will the market.

Sep 16:  We've got our data for the first half of September.  The market was essentially flat during this period.

No particularly potent trends emerged on the positive side.  Stocks ranked in the 87-91 percentile of our "break_ave" statistic (i.e. stocks trading well above their long term moving averages) topped our tables...up about 3%.  Stocks with weak September performances over the last 3 years made decent gains...but so were those that have been quite strong over this period.  Stocks with large 3 month gains continued to gain.  Computer hardware stocks fared well.

On the losing side, stocks with high recent volatility were weak, losing nearly 3.6%.  Transports, led by horrid performances in select airline stocks, lost  3%.  Stocks with three month losses were weak.

The most noticeable trend above, we'd say, is the polarity between 3 month winners and losers.  September h1 2002, 1999, and 1990 saw this sort of behavior.  September h2 2002 was quite weak, with no groups emerging with gains.  September h2 1999 was weak, though you could have realized gains in software stocks.  Semiconductors got hurt.  September h2 1990 was quite weak again...no groups emerged with gains, with 3 month losers getting hurt particularly badly.

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The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Banking stocks led the way today...up 1.9%.  Wednesday's big gainers were strong.  Stocks with low institutional holdings were weak.

On the weak side, stocks trading well under prominent resistance levels were weak...down .2%.  The recent trend toward continued gains in winners, and continued losses in losers remains intact.  REIT's lagged. 

The above trends are mildly positive for the next session.

Sep 15:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks with relatively low volatility led the way today, in keeping with the Dow's slight outperformance over Nasdaq...up .4%.  Stocks whose movements tend to be strongly linked to the movements of other stocks were strong.  No industry groups appeared on the positive side of our tables.

On the losing side, stocks with recent losses continued to get burned...down 1.9%.  Volatile stocks in general were weak.  Semiconductors got hurt. 

The above trends are negative for tomorrow's session.

Sep 14:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq 1%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Oils led the way today...up .4%.  Stocks with big gains yesterday (a group that doesn't include many oils, by the way), gained .3%.  Monday's losers fared well.  One trend that breaks the recent theme should be noted...stocks with large yearlong losses actually managed to hold ground.

On the losing side, stocks with recent losses were weak...down as much as 1.6%.  Monday's big gainers, however, were weak as well.  Retails were hurt.  Stocks that were weak in this time slot last year appeared as losers.

No strong trends toward gains or losses in volatile stocks manifested today, so we'll refrain from making a prediction on tomorrow's market.

Sep 13:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Stocks trading well above their most prominent resistance levels formed our strongest group today...up .6%.  Stocks that tend to trade independently of other stocks (a low "corr" statistic) fared well.  Software stocks resisted losses well, as did semiconductors.

On the losing side, transportation-related stocks lost as much as 2.1%.  Stocks with large recent or 3 month losses fared poorly...bottom-fishing has definitely been a weak strategy of late, in keeping with the general third quarter trend towards continued gains in yearlong gainers.    Banking stocks were weak.

We actually see the above trends as fairly positive for the next session...the strength of volatile stocks in the face of more general declines suggests that today's session was hardly one of textbook bearishness.

Sep 12:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.0%.

Retails led the way today, bouncing back from a recent series of losses...up 1.3%.  Small caps and software stocks were strong.

On the losing side, oils topped the list...down .7%.  Expensive stocks and those with large yearlong gains were weak as well.

The above trends are weakly positive for tomorrow's session.

Sep 9:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%. 

Oils led the way today, up 1.8%.  Naturally, metals and mining stocks were strong as well.  Expensive stocks and large caps outperformed, as might be expected given the gap between the Dow and Nasdaq today.

On the losing side, Wednesday's big losers dropped further...down .3%.  Yesterday's big winners were weak as well.  Yearlong losers continued to lose.  Small caps underperformed.

We'd say the above trends are neutral for Monday's market...the general gains are nice in and of themselves, but we'd like to see some action in the volatile stock sector...something we didn't see.

Sep 8:  If you go to www.cbsmarketwatch.com, you might find an article by Mark Hulbert regarding market habits in the month of August.  Here, he attempts to show that the belief of various imputed market analysts that August tends to be a losing month is misguided.  That's because, he says, these analysts have only looked at recent data, and a different picture emerges if you focus on Dow data over the last 100 years.

Sometimes Hulbert makes a lot of sense, and sometimes not.  In the above case, we'd say "not".  Why should data taken from the time when cars were still novelties be considered equally relevant to more modern data?  We'd say it's an open question, but he simply assumes that including longer term data makes his analysis more meaningful.  Silly!

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Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .3%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Stocks that were strong this time last year were strong again today...up 1.3%.  The trend was quite significant...the next closest group, semiconductors, gained only .7%.  Cheap stocks were strong.  Stocks with nice three month gains continued their recent trend toward further gains.

On the losing side, stocks whose short term averages are well below the long term averages fared poorly...down 1.8%.  1 month and 3 month losers lost.  Small caps were weak.

The above trends are mixed for the next session...on the whole, though, we'd say they're positive.

Sep 7:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Our strongest group was that containing stocks with large 3 month gains...up 1.6%.  Those with big yearlong gains were strong as well.  Oils did not appear in our list of big gainers today, so we don't have them to explain the focus on stocks that have been faring well.  In fact, no industry groups appear on the strong side of our tables today.  Volatile stocks were strong.

On the weak side, REIT's lost .4%, reversing yesterday's big gains.  Banks and dividend-payers in general were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 6:  The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

REIT's led the way today...up 2.6%.  Naturally, then, dividend-payers in general fared well.  Friday's losers gained.  Volatile stocks fared well (though it should be noted that software stocks were actually a bit weak).

No groups actually lost money today.  Oils were weak.  Non-volatiles lagged, as did cheap stocks.

The above trends are a bit mixed for tomorrow's session, but it appears that the positives outweigh the negatives.

Sep 2:   The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

On the positive side, yesterday's big losers were strong...up around .5%.  Small caps and stocks whose movements don't correlate strongly with the movements of other stocks finished the day with gains.

On the weak side, stocks with nice gains over the last week reversed...down 1.8%.  Oils lost about 1.6%. 

The above trends are mixed for the next session, so we'll refrain from speculating on the direction of the market.

***************

We've got our data for the month of August.  We have the average stock down 1.5%.

The strongest group:  oils, up about 3%.  No surprise there.  Stocks with strong 3 month gains, those with late July losses, healthcare stocks, and stocks with a history of August strength fared well.

On the losing side, yearlong losers were weakest...down greater than 5%.  Retails, a group that had done fairly well to this point in the year, were weak, getting punished late in the month.  Somewhat surprisingly, stocks with large dividends were weak...we do note, however, that REIT's fared poorly, particularly after risk adjustment.  Still...big dividend payers were weaker than REIT's.

August 1999 somewhat resembles this current August...stocks with nice gains over the last 3 months to one year fared well, while retails and yearlong losers were weak.  September of 1999, for what it's worth, was a losing period, though nice gains were available in software stocks (up nearly 8%) and yearlong winners in general.  Large cap stocks were weak.

Sep 1:  The Dow and Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was a fairly large 3.6%.

Industry groups led the market in both directions.  On the positive side, oils gained as much as 1.8%.  Biotechs fared well (1.4%), followed closely by metals and mining.  Stocks with nice gains over the last 3 months, and those with big dividends fared well also.

On the negative side, retailers were burned yet again...down 1.8%.  Semiconductors were weak...down 1%.  Stocks on a recent losing streak continued to lose.

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Aug 31:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

The strongest gains came from a normally staid group:  construction services...up greater than 3.4%.  Hurricane Kat, no doubt, played a role here.  Yesterday's big winners continued to gain, as well as stocks with nice gains over the last 3 months.  Oils and metals and mining were strong. 

On the losing side, large caps were weak...up as little as .7%.  Stocks that trade independently of the motions of other stocks were weak.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though we wished we had seen volatile stocks appear in our winning column today.

Aug 30:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups increased to 2.9%...we're seeing some end-of-the-month volatility, with a possible assist from oil prices and hurricane Katrina.

Stocks that fared well in the Friday-Monday afterhours session topped our list of gainers...up 1.5%.  The gains were very significant from a statistical point of view.  Oils gained 1.3%...not surprisingly, then, yearlong gainers were strong as well. 

Retails led the losers...down 1.4%.  Yearlong losers, stocks that were weak in this time slot last year, and recent losers were also quite weak.

The above trends are generally negative for the next trading session.  Bear in mind, however, that the end of the month does tend to be a positive time for the market.

Aug 29:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Friday's big losers led the way...up 2%.  Stocks trading well below their best "trading pair" were strong.  Metals and mining, and healthcare stocks gained nicely.  Volatile stocks, 3 month losers, and Thursday's big gainers round out our list.

We only identified one group that actually lost money...REIT's were down about .1%.  Non-volatiles in general were weak.

The above trends are positive for tomorrow's session.

Aug 26:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq lost .6%.  Separation between groups was 1.8%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the strong side of our tables...it seems that we've been saying that a lot lately.  Large caps were relatively strong...down .4%. Non-volatiles fared well.  Computer networking stocks managed to resist losses...a glimmer of hope for Monday's session.

The losing side was where the action was.  Yesterday's gainers lost as much as 2%.  Cheap stocks were hurt.  Semiconductors were punished as well.  One trend that did remain intact...stocks that lost in this time slot last year continued to do so today.  Stocks with negative profit margins were hurt...it seems the market was paying attention to fundamentals today.

The above trends are mixed for the next session, but the bias appears negative.

Aug 25:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

On the positive side, no trends of great significance emerged.  Stocks that showed particularly strong volume on Wednesday gained as much as 1.5%.  Yearlong losers outperformed, reversing a recent trend toward losses in the group.

On the losing side, stocks whose behavior is only weakly tied to that of other stocks ( a low "corr" value) lost as much as .5%.  Stocks that lost in this time slot last year did so again today.  3 month losers were weak. 

The above trends are weakly positive for the next session.

Aug 24:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Cheap stocks led the way today...up 1.4%.  Oils were strong...not surprisingly then, yearlong gainers continued their strength.  Stocks with high or negative p/e's fared well, despite the negative market environment. 

On the losing side, retails lost as much as 1.1%.  Large caps, non-volatiles, and those with a string of recent losses were weak.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Aug 23:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was a weak 1.7%.

Biotechs were our strongest group...up .7%. Stocks with nice gains over the last 3 months to one years were strong as well. 

On the weak side, metals and mining top the list...down 1.1%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to year continued to lose.

Again, the above trends are mixed, so we won't offer a prediction for tomorrow's market.

Aug 22:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Nothing particularly significant emerged on the positive side of our tables...volatile stocks were strong (up as much as 1.5%), as well as small caps, cheap stocks, and three month winners.

On the losing side, stocks with large yearlong losses were weak...down as much as .6%.  Those with one month to three month losses were weak as well.  Stocks that have been particularly volatile in the last couple of weeks were hurt.  Large caps underperformed. 

Not a single industry group appeared on our list of winners and losers today.

The above trends are mixed as indicators for tomorrow's market, so we'll refrain from speculating.

Aug 19:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq were flat.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Oils led the way today...up 1.6%.  Not surprisingly, then, stocks with strong yearlong performances were up nicely as well.  Stocks with recent losses fared well. 

On the losing side, nothing of great significance was found.  Heavily shorted stocks were weak...down .5%. Dividend payers lost in excess of the market.  

The above trends give little indication as to the direction of Monday's market...we'll refrain from speculating.

Aug 18:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .4%.  Separation between groups was a miniscule 1.4%...about as low as we've seen.

Non-volatiles, large caps, and relatively expensive stocks were flat or managed small gains.  Biotechs gained a tad.

On the losing side, stocks with large 3 month gains, metals and mining, and yesterday's winners were weak.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Aug 17:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Semiconductors led the pack today, up 1.2%.  Cheap stocks were strong.  Monday's gainers were up nicely, and stocks with strong performances over the last three years in this particular time slot were strong as well.

Oils were by far the weakest group...down 1.6%.  The next closest group was down a mere .9%.  Expensive stocks, dividend payers, and those with big yearlong gains (largely oils) also lost in excess of the general market.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though again we'd like to see the market focus more specifically on the most volatile of stocks.

Aug 16:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.  Losses were supposedly sparked by Walmart's earnings report, in which the company cites rising oil prices as affecting profitability.

We only identified one group that gained...REIT's (+.1%), coming off some nasty recent losses.  Dividend-payers in general, non-volatiles, and stocks that are not strongly linked to the behavior of other stocks held up well today.

On the losing side, yesterday's big winners got hurt to the tune of 2.7%. Retails were hit hard...-2.6%.  Stocks with large yearlong gains were also hurt.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though we are pleased to see that volatile stocks weren't specifically punished today.

Aug 15:  The Dow was up .3%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Stocks with large losses last Wednesday topped our list of gainers...up 1.6% today.  Semiconductors, banks, small caps, and Friday's losers were strong as well. 

On the losing side, oils lost about .6%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last month were weak, as were those that trade independent of the movements of other stocks (a low "corr" value).

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 13:  We've crunched our data for the first half of August.  Our own take on the market showed a loss of about 2.5%.

Oils dominated the winning side of the tables...up 3%.  Metals and mining, not surprisingly, were strong as well.  Large caps in general just managed to break even.

On the losing side, stocks with large gains over the previous 3 months gave back 5.7%.  Semiconductors weren't far behind.  Stocks with large yearlong losses, volatiles, and those with large gains on the last day of July were weak.  REIT's lost 4.5%...the losses were especially large after risk-adjustment.

We'll refrain from trying to match these last two weeks with a historical Aug h1...there aren't any strong resemblances going back to 1984.

Aug 12:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .8% today.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.  With the latest wave of oil price shocks, it seems we're moving back into the sort of difficult-to-predict market that we saw earlier this year...one where the latest oil pricing dominates other considerations in driving the market up or down.

Stocks whose movements are not strongly correlated with the movements of others stocks topped our list of gainers today...up a mere .1%.  Non-volatiles and large-caps were relatively strong.  Not shown in our tables is the fact that stocks with large losses in the thurs-fri afterhours session were quite strong...up .5%.

Losers were topped by semiconductors...down 2%.  Volatiles, one-month losers, yesterday's winners, and stocks with a historical tendency to lose in this time slot all lost at least 1.5%.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though again, the pricing of oil seems to trump other concerns when predicting the upcoming market.

Aug 11:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.  Trading was not strongly focused today...none of the trends below were particularly significant in a statistical sense.

In general, volatile stocks were strong...up as much as 1.6%.  Stocks with large losses over the last 1 to 3 months gained nicely.  Yesterday's losers were strong as well.  Oils gained.

On the losing side, retails were weak...down as much as .2%.  Stocks with weak volume over the last couple of weeks, and those with high insider ownership were weak as well.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 10:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

With oil moving to $65/barrel, oil stocks topped our list of gainers...up 1.3%.  Naturally, metals and mining fared well as well.  Stocks with strong performances over the last 3 months to one year were strong. 

On the losing side, stocks trading well below their 100 day averages lost as much as 1.5%.  Cheap stocks, those with large losses on a scale of one day to one year, and semiconductors performed poorly.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.  We're pleased, however, that volatile stocks did not appear on the losing side of our tables.

Aug 9:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Yesterday's big losers topped our list of today's winner...up 1.2%.  Stocks with large cumulative losses over the last few days to one month were strong as well.

On the losing side, stocks that closed well above yesterday's low were weak...down 1.4%.  Stocks with weak fundamentals (as measured by p/e ratio) suffered.  Volatiles, big three month losers AND big three month winners, and oils were weak.

The above trends are mixed...we'll refrain from speculating on tomorrow's market.

Aug 8:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Oils topped our list of groups that actually made money today...up.6%.  Metals and mining were strong as well.  Stocks with small (not zero) dividends fared well.

On the losing side, REIT's got burned for a second day in a row...down a big 2.9%.  Our next closest group lost 2.0%.  Biotechs and utilities were weak as well.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Aug 5:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Some interesting results...cheap stocks topped our list of gainers today (+.4%).  Normally, one wouldn't expect this group to fare well on a negative session.  What's more, volatiles and yearlong losers were strong as well.  Semiconductors held up well.  Lightly shorted stocks found themselves on the list.

On the losing side, REIT's lost 2.8%.  Another oddity...stocks with large dividends were selectively punished. Yearlong gainers lost.

The losses in the general market are a negative sign, but the strength in volatiles, cheap stocks, and losing positions leads us to believe that there's a good chance that Monday will be positive.

Aug 4:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

We didn't identify any groups that gained today.  Oils managed to lose less than .1%.  Non-volatiles and large-caps were fairly strong.

On the losing side, stocks with big gains in July lost as much as 2.4%.  Semiconductors were close behind, continuing yesterday's losses.  Biotechs were weak as well.  Volatile stocks were weak, though it's interesting that the most volatile stocks managed to stay out of our losing tables.

The above trends are negative for tomorrow's session.

Aug 3:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Our own read of the broad market had it down .4%...small caps were weak.  Separation between groups was 1.9%. 

Again, trading lacked focus, particularly with respect to stocks that gained today.  Non-volatiles, large-caps, stocks with a history of gains in this time slot, and three month losers finished the day with gains, but they weren't significant in the statistical sense.

On the negative side, semiconductors and hardware lost as much as 1.3%. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 2:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq 1.0%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Stocks trading well above their best "trading partners" over the last 20 days were our strongest group...up 2%.  The gains, however, weren't particularly significant in a statistical sense.  Stocks with recent losses or large one month gains were strong.  Oils and metals and mining outperformed the market.

On the losing side, the trend was more well-defined:  yearlong losers lost .5% with good significance.  This is an interesting development, as we've seen some nice gains in the group over the last few weeks.  Entertainment-related stocks, those with strong recent gains, and heavily shorted stocks were weak as well.

The market-wide gains are fairly positive for the next session, though we'd really like to see volatile stocks top our list of strongest groups.

August 1:  The Dow lost .2%, while Nasdaq gained .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks with large one year losses topped our list of gainers today...up 1.5%.  Stocks trading well below their 100 day moving average were close behind.  Friday's losers reversed.

On the losing side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Stocks that closed near their highs on Friday were weak.

It's interesting to note that not a single industry group appeared in our tables of winning or losing stocks today.

The above trends do not offer any strong indications as to the direction of tomorrow's market...if a gun were put to our heads, we'd say "up", as the gains in various losing groups shows a willingness to take on risk.

July 30 (Sat):  We've got our data for the second half of July.  Our own read of the general market had it up about 2.5%.

Stocks with large three month losses topped our list of big gainers...up as much as 6.7%.  Metals and mining stocks were close behind.  Small caps, oils, and stocks with high p/e ratios also gained well above the general market.

On the losing side, a few groups were slightly negative or flat.  Stocks with strong momentum in the middle of the month were weak.  Non-volatiles gained around 1%.

For parallels, one might look at the second half of July in 1994.  For what it's worth, the first half of August 1994 was positive, with nice gains available in beaten-up stocks.

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We've got our data for the month of July.  Our own take on the market had it up a very nice 7%.

Our strongest group was stocks with negative p/e ratios...up a big 17.5%.  More evidence of a shift toward risk-taking was seen in the gains of 3 month to one year losers (up as much as 15%) and volatile stocks in general.  Stocks with a high "afterhours_stat" were strong.  Biotechs performed well.  Lightly shorted stocks fared nicely.  On a risk-adjusted basis, small caps were particularly strong.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money in this environment.  The weakest group was simply non-volatiles...up as little as 3%.  Utilities, banks, and REIT's were weak, as might be expected.  Yearlong gainers underperformed.

In terms of historical July's with similar outcomes, July 2003 offers a decent match...nice gains in the general market, with yearlong losers and volatiles performing particularly well, and non-volatiles showing weakness.  August 2003 gained around 5% and showed continued strength in volatiles, with no dramatic reversals in groups that performed well in July.

It's also of interest to note that since 1987 we've seen 10 positive July's...9 of these 10 were followed by positive Augusts (August 1992 lost about 2%).

July 29:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.  Again, the gains and losses in our winning/losing tables weren't particularly significant...trading was relatively unfocused and undefined.

On the winning side, stocks with low cash positions fared well...up .9%.    Software stocks were strong.  Wednesday's and Monday's gainers continued to gain.  Stocks with nice gains over the course of the month fared well.

On the losing side, Tuesday's losers were weak....down as much as 1.5%.  Stocks with low institutional holdings were weak.  Those with a historical tendency toward losses at this time of year continued their losses.

The above trends offer few clues as to the direction of Monday's session...we'll refrain from speculating.

July 28:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

On the positive side of the market, we identified groups that gained as much as 2%.  However, these gains weren't particular significant from a statistical point of view...trading was without strong focus.  It seems that stocks of moderate volatility were the best stocks to be in today.  Monday's losers were strong.  Stocks that have a historical tendency to gain at this time of year gained again (though, to be clear, stocks that gained at this time last year were weak).

The losing side showed more focus.  Stocks with large 1 to 3 month gains (-.7%), high volatility, or cheap stock prices were weakest.  Semiconductors were weak.  These developments reverse a number of recent trends.

The general gains in the market are a positive sign in and of themselves.  However, the weakness in volatiles is just a tad disturbing...we'll refrain from guessing the direction of tomorrow's market.

July 27:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .5%.  Our own take on the market had it up only about .1%...small caps were weak today.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

Trading lacked focus today, as none of our winners or losers broke into the realm of statistical significance...stock movements appeared more guided by random forces than anything else.

Stocks that were weak last year fared well...up as much as 1%.  Large caps were strong, reversing recent weakness.

On the losing side, volatile stocks (-.8%), semiconductors, and those with large gains over the last month to year were weak.

The above trends are a tad negative for tomorrow's session.

July 26:  The Dow lost .2%, while Nasdaq gained .4%.  Separation between groups was a slight 1.8%.

Stocks with large losses yesterday led the pack today...up 1.5%.  Stocks with losses over the last several days to one month also fared well.  Stocks that gained this time last year were strong.  Cheap stocks outperformed, continuing a quiet trend of late.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the negative side of our tables.  Non-volatiles were weak, as were stocks with nice gains over the last several days.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 25:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%. 

Once again, volatile stocks were the ones gaining today, despite the losses in the general market...up .4%.  Cheap stocks fared well.  Despite the strength in the most volatile of stocks, non-volatiles also held up well..

The action was on the negative side, however.  Here, Wednesday's and Friday's gainers were victimized to the tune of as much as 1.9%.  Yearlong gainers were weak. 

Not a single industry group appeared in our tables today!

The above trends are again rather contradictory as predictors of the next market session...we'll refrain from making a guess.

July 22:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 3.6%, thanks to some strongly industry-focused activity.

Oils were by far our strongest group today...up 3.2%.  The next closest group, yesterday's losers, gained 2.4%.

On the losing side, biotechs lost as much as .4%.  Stocks with large one-month gains or three month losses were weak.  Again, large-caps lagged.

The above trends are mixed indicators for Monday's session...we'll refrain from offering a prediction. 

July 21:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

We didn't identify any groups that walked away from the session with gains.  Biotechs were the strongest...losing less than .1%.  Cheap stocks, scientific devices, volatiles, 3 month losers, and stocks with weak volume (!) over the last 10 days were strong.

On the losing side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Stocks that lost significantly in the Tues-Wed afterhours session dropped as much as 2.4%.  Stocks with large yearlong gains were weak.

The general losses above tend to predict further losses in the market, but the strength in volatiles is a positive sign...we'd favor further upward action tomorrow.

July 20:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Winners were led by stocks that had nice gains on last Thursday's session...up 2.4%.  Semiconductors gained 2.2%.  Yesterday's gainers, metals and mining, and stocks with a weak performance this time last year were strong as well.

We note that the Nasdaq Biotech Index (^nbi) actually gained 4.5% today.  This index covers a relatively small number of the well-known biotechs.  It appears that the smaller biotechs did not fare so well today, as biotechs did not appear in our tables of strongest groups.

On the weak side, yesterday's losers gained a mere .1%.  Stocks that we list in "communications services" and "computer services" were weak, despite the gains in semiconductors.  Non-volatiles, large caps, and stocks whose trading patterns are strongly correlated with those of other stocks were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 19:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Semiconductors came to the fore today...up 2.3%.  Oils were up similarly.  Stocks with weak recent performances bounced back.

On the weak side, non-volatiles gained as little as .3%.  Large-caps were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 18:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

More of the same, interesting trading pattern today...despite a negative market, risky/volatile stocks outperformed, gaining as much as 1%.  Cheap stocks, those with weak fundamentals, and biotechs fared well.

On the losing side, banks, oils, and semiconductors were weak, with the former group losing as much as 1.3%.

The above trends offer mixed signals as to the direction of tomorrow's market...the general losses are negative in and of themselves, but the gains in volatiles are encouraging.

July 16 (Sat):  We've got our data for the first half of July.  Our take on the market has it up a tad over 4%...quite a strong performance.  Some interesting trends emerged.

Our strongest group was stocks with a high "afterhours statistic"...up better than 12% over the period.  We added this stat about a month ago.  It breaks down a stock's performance over the previous 30 days into afterhours gains and regular hours gains.  Stocks that tend to fare particularly well in the afterhours get a high rating.  Our underlying thinking is that the afterhours tend to be dominated by institutional buyers and sellers, so a stock that has fared particularly well in the afterhours might be under institutional accumulation.  The indicator actually seems to be a fairly strong contrary indicator for day-traders...a high value would suggest losses in the next regular hours session.  However, the statistic may work well over longer time horizons...it certainly worked well over the last two weeks.  Over the next few months, we'll get a clearer picture as to the importance of this statistic as we regenerate our longer-term data tables.

Stocks with negative p/e ratios, yearlong losses, cheap prices, and high volatility were also strong...clearly, there was some risk-taking going on in the market.  As is often the case, a large high-close differential on the last day of the month (June) indicated upcoming gains.  Biotechs and semiconductors were strong, particularly after risk-adjustment (an odd result, given the fact that many of these stocks are fairly volatile...but we won't argue with the data).  Stocks that lost in July h1 of last year tended to gain.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Non-volatiles and utilities were weak, gaining only a tad over 1%.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partners on the last day of June were weak.

The period has some fairly strong resemblances to July h1 of 2003 and 2000.  Unfortunately, the ensuing July h2's in these two years differed greatly.  July h2 2003 was quite positive, while h2 2000 was negative.  In both cases, however, it would have been wise to shift away from big yearlong losers and play things a bit more conservatively.  We should point out that in recent years there's been a fairly strong tendency for stocks with a high "afterhours_stat" to perform particularly weakly in the second half of July.

July 15:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Biotechs were strong...up 1.1%.  Stocks with large one month to three month losses, cheap stocks, and volatile stocks also outperformed.  We've seen this sort of behavior several times of late...these sorts of high-risk stocks performing quite nicely despite a very so-so general market.  A bit unusual, as it's more typical to see these issues perform strongly in a strongly bullish atmosphere.

On the losing side, stocks that were strong on this day last year topped the list...down 1%.  Metals and mining were weak.  Stocks with good momentum over the last week underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 14:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was a big 3.7%.

Stocks with large cash/share positions stood out on the winning side...up 1.4%.  The next closest group, that of stocks trading well below their third most prominent resistance levels, gained only .9%.  Volatile stocks, yearlong losers, cheap stocks, and biotechs were fairly strong.

Oils stood out on the losing side...down 2.3%.  REIT's took rather large losses as well.  Stocks with large yearlong gains were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 13:  The Dow gained .4%, while Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Cheap stocks led the way today...up as much as 1.1%.  This group has not appeared frequently in the winning column in the last year, so it's always worth keeping an eye on when it does.  Semiconductors, volatiles, and yearlong losers were also strong.

On the losing side, a number of our proprietary indicators predicted losses as high as 1.3%.  Stocks with large gains over the last month or year were weak.

Despite the flatness of the market, the above trends are positive for the next trading session. 

July 12:  The Dow dropped .1%, Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.8%.

Stocks with large yearlong losses led the pack, gaining 1%.  Volatile stocks and oils were strong as well.

On the losing side, yesterday's big gainers were weak, dropping .6%.  Stocks with nice, if not spectacular, gains over the last month underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 11:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Semiconductors topped our list of gainers...up 2.6%.  Stocks that have taken a beating over the last three months gained nicely. 

On the weak side, healthcare and biotech gained as little as .4%.  Non-volatiles underperformed.  Expensive stocks, large caps, and heavily shorted stocks were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 8:  We don't take a strong position on the long term versus short-term (day trading) debate.  Our (myriad) data doesn't point strongly in either direction...it's a complex issue.

However, when we see silly logic arguing in favor of either point of view, we pounce on it.  We were lured over to the Motley Fool website by an article that tells you you can make money at the expense of daytraders.  Sounded intriguing.

The idea is that business plans take a long time to foment, even with the best managers at work, so it doesn't make sense to buy stocks for only a short time.

A truly ludicrous point of view.  What's true at the level of the manager isn't necessarily true for stock market investors.  Why should I wait years for a business plan to reap tangible rewards (e.g. earnings, new products) when I can buy a business that's doing that right now?  And why shouldn't I jump from one company with a business plan that's actually manifesting to another that's manifesting?...the only thing lost is commissions.

My honest inclination is to side with the long-term investors...buy good, well-managed companies and hang on to them.  It minimizes heart attacks.  But the arguments at the Motley Fool do not support that position at all...pure fluff with a tad of finger-wagging paternalism thrown in.

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The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.8%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%...despite the big gains in the session, stocks tended to move as a group, driven by broad market forces.

Our biggest gainers closed (yesterday) well above their lows...up 3%.  Yearlong losers, volatiles, recent winners, and biotechs were all strong.

No groups came close to actually losing money.  Non-volatiles gained as little as .8%.  Oils, expensive stocks, yearlong winners, and large-caps were weak.

The above trends are bullish for Monday's session.

July 7:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .3%, despite the bombings in London.  Separation between groups was extremely low...1.5%...stocks moved very much in tandem today.  One might say that on these sorts of days traders are looking over their shoulders, making sure that their trades are not contrary to what the other guys are doing.

Nothing particularly stood out on either the positive or negative side.  Recent losers were our strongest group today...up about .9%.  On the weak side, stocks with relatively large 3 month losses lost around .3%.

The above trends offer few clues as to the direction of the next session....we'll refrain from speculating.

July 6:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.9%.

Stocks with relatively weak volume over the last few days led our list of winners, gaining .4%.  Monthlong to yearlong losers, software stocks, and those with a high "perceived risk" ranking were relatively strong.  The gains in risky stocks is rather odd...one would expect them to take losses on a negative session such as today.

On the losing side, utilities dropped 1.5%.  Stocks that have shown strength over the last few days to the last month were weak.  Banks underperformed.

The performance of volatile stocks gives a clue that tomorrow's market might actually be a positive one.

July 5:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Friday's big losers were today's big winners...up 2.5%.  Oils, volatiles, monthlong winners, and small caps fared well.

On the losing side, we find non-volatiles (up .4%), 3 month to 1 year losers, large caps, software stocks, and one anomaly...stocks that have been particularly volatile over the last 10 days were actually rather weak in this bullish environment.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 3 (Sun):  We've got our data for the second half of June.  We have the market down about .7% over the period.

Stocks that underperformed their best trading partner over the 20 days prior to the middle of June topped our list of gainers...up 2%.  Biotechs and insurance stocks fared well.  Utilities were strong after risk-adjustment.  Small caps outpaced. 

On the losing side, semiconductors topped the list, losing nearly 4%.  Metals and mining, stocks with large one month gains, volatile stocks, and large-caps were all weak.

July 2 (Sat):  We've got our data for the second quarter.  Our own read of the market had it up about 3%.

The big winners of the quarter were REIT's...up about 10.5% (more, of course, if you consider the fact that most of these stocks pay dividends).  Obviously, this group was even stronger on a risk-adjusted basis.  Naturally, dividend-paying stocks were strong as well.  Stocks that came into the quarter with big monthlong gains (a group that did not include REIT's) continued to gain nicely...these gains were all the stronger if combined with high volatility.

On the losing side, metals and mining led the way...down about 4%.  Cheap stocks, those that were particularly volatile at the end of the first quarter, and semiconductors, were all weak.

July 1:  The Dow gained .3%, while Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Oils led the way today...up 1.8%.  The next closest group, stocks with high cash per share, gained a mere 1.2%.  Tuesday's losers, and 3 month to 1 year losers were also strong.  Monday's gainers fared well.

On the losing side we had stocks with low institutional holdings (-.2%), biotechs, low volatility, and nice gains toward the end of June.

The above trends are slightly bullish for Monday's session.

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We've got our data for the month of June.  Our own take on the broad market had it up 3%.

The biggest gainers were oils stocks...again...up about 7.5%.  Stocks trading well above their most prominent resistance levels gained nicely.  Stocks that came into the month with good momentum were strong.  Stocks that are only weakly correlated with the movement of other stocks were strong, as is often the case.  REIT's and utilities were strong on a risk-adjusted basis.  Stocks with negative profit margins were strong.

On the weak side, semiconductors were essentially flat.  Large caps were weak.  The 4% most volatile stocks (largely semiconductors) were also weak, though moderately volatile stocks actually fared OK.  Transportation-related stocks suffered.

Looking for historical Junes that match up well to June 2005, one needn't go far back into history...June 2004 gained 3% in the general market, had nice gains in oils and stocks trading well above resistance levels, while semiconductors suffered.  July 2004, for what it's worth, was a lousy period for investment, with oils just eking out gains and semiconductors getting drubbed to the tune of 10% losses.

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