Sep 28:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.9%.

Stocks with big gains over the last month were strongest...up 1.3%.  Those with large increases in volume this week gained nicely.  Biotechs fared well.

Cheap stocks were weak...down .6%.  Stocks trading with large 3 month losses finished in negative territory.  Software stocks were weak.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Sep 26:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Though both positive, today's session is nearly a mirror image of yesterday's.  Stocks that have underperformed their trading partners in a big way were strongest today...up 2%.  Oils fared well.  Stocks with large losses over the last month reversed. 

Nothing of great significance emerged on the negative side.  Moderately cheap stocks (around $13) lost .8%.  Semiconductors dropped.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Sep 25:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Last Wednesday's big gainers were strongest...up as much as 2.2%.  Oddly, a number of heavy industries had gains over 2%. 

Cheap stocks dropped to the tune of .7%.  Stocks that have significantly underperformed their best "trading partners" over the last month were weak.  Free agents suffered.  Yearlong losers ended the day with losses.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 22:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks with a large institutional-holdings/capitalization figure were strongest today...up .5%.  Small caps were strong.  REIT's finished with gains.  Non-volatiles and free agents outperformed.

Tuesday's big losers lost again...down 1.9%.  Stocks with large losses over the last 1-3 months were weak, though yearlong gainers also underperformed.  Semiconductors were again weak.

Looking at our "similar markets" feature, it's interesting that two sessions in late September 2004 popped up as showing strong resemblances to this one.  One might expect the current market to evolve similarly, at least in the short term.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Sep 21:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Oils led the way today...up .4%.  Stocks that were strong this time last year repeated the performance.  Those with large losses yesterday or the last month (oils, primarily), managed to stay above water.

On the losing side, semiconductors dropped 1.6%.  Otherwise, no trends of significance emerged.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Sep 20:   The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Stocks with high (but not the highest) cash per share led the way today...up 2%.  A rather unusual result!  Software stocks fared well. 

On the losing side, stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partner over the last month lost 1.2%.  The trend was quite significant.  Oils were weak again.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to year dipped.  Despite the positivity of the market, stocks with a high "perceived risk" indicator lost money...another odd result. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

*******************

Where do we stand on the market?  Well, from a purely seasonal perspective we rather like the prospects for the next year.  Several factors are worth noting.  One is the fact that we'll soon be exiting the portion of the year that has traditionally been most dismal.  Another is the fact that the third year of a presidency is the strongest, market-wise, of the four years...one clear way that Republicans could salvage some appeal would be to take steps to stimulate the market.  Also, we've seen a period of extended bullying of semiconductors and some other volatile groups...such activity, we think, may actually set up conditions for very nice profits in these groups in the months ahead.  Finally, our memories of previous market bubbles are becoming hazier...a prerequisite for the next big, irrational market spike.  Some folks, in fact, reckon that a 6 or 7 year period is necessary to erase memories of the last bubble...if we place the last big spike in the 1999-2000 time slot, the implications are worth considering.

While we'd say the probabilities favor better-than-ordinary gains over the next 6 to 15 months, timing the take-off would be difficult.  In particular, should we be looking at early or late October as an entry point?  We won't bother to try to pinpoint events with that degree of accuracy.

Seasonal trends are significant.  At the same time, they can be perturbed easily.  Placing a toy boat in a slightly different location in a stream may radically change its ultimate location.  In the real world, such perturbations have come primarily in the form of oil spikes, terrorist events, and political announcements.  These are uncontrollable.  Our main point:  the time is approaching when one should consider "playing the odds" by increasing one's exposure to equities.  And, if one is already heavily invested, one might consider reallocating some funds to volatile positions.

Sep 19:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

REIT's were strongest today, bouncing back from weakness yesterday...up .5%.  Retails fared well.  Non-volatiles were essentially flat.

On the losing side, stocks with large losses over the last month or so continued downwards...off 1.6%.  Oils were weak.  Stocks that were particularly strong in this time slot last year reversed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Sep 18:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq were flat.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Winners were led by oils...up 1.5%.  Just behind were stocks with high recent volatility.  Stocks with a strong recent tendency to finish near their lows were strong. 

Stocks that finished near their highs on Friday led losers...down .8%.  REIT's were weak. 

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session's direction.

Sep 16:  We've got our data for the first half of the month.  We've got the market up 1.5% over the two weeks.

Gains and losses were dominated by industries.  On the positive side, we had retails gaining as much as 7%.  Stocks trading well below their dominant resistance levels (over the last year) were strong.  3 month losers gained nicely.

Losers were led by oils...down 4.5%.  Stocks that finished August with a series of losses were weak.  Cheap stocks finished with losses.

The period has weak similarities (strength in retails in particular) with the first half of September 2002.  For what it's worth, the second half of Sep 02 was quite weak, with average losses around 7%.

Sep 15:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Stocks with a strong tendency to finish near their highs topped our list of gainers today...up 1.2%.  Tuesday's big gainers continued upwards.  Volatiles and 3 month losers outperformed.

Cheap stocks topped our list of losers...down .9%.  Semiconductors were weak.  Three month winners underperformed.  Stocks that were weak this time last year tended to repeat the performance.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Sep 14:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq was flat.  Our own take on the market had it down .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Yesterday's big losers topped our list of gainers...up .5%.  Yearlong losers were relatively strong.  Small-caps finished above water.  No industry groups were included in our tables.

On the losing side, Monday's big losers dropped as much as 1.9%.  Last Friday's losers fared similarly. Oils were weak.  Stocks with high recent volatility lost.

The above trends are mixed as predictors for tomorrow's market, so we won't venture a guess.

Sep 13:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Stocks with big losers Monday were strongest today...up 2.1%.  Friday's big losers were strong as well.  Oils gained nicely. 

Nothing of great significance emerged on the negative side of the market.  Semiconductors underperformed, though non-volatiles were weak as well.  Yearlong losers were generally weak. 

The above trends aren't amazingly inspiring for the next session, but we'd favor continued positivity.

Sep 12:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq 2.0%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Yesterday's big winners led our list of gainers today...up 3.9%.  Stocks with large losses over the last 3 months to 1 year fared well.  Oddly, a number of dowdy manufacturing groups gained quite nicely. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Utilities were essentially flat.  Oils failed to keep pace with the market.  Non-volatiles were weak.  Expensive stocks and yesterday's big losers round out the list.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 11:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .3%.  Our own take on the market had it down just a tad.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Stocks in our "miscellaneous retail" category were strongest...up 1%.  The gains were not significant.  Stocks with moderate p/e ratios fared well.  Software stocks outperformed.

Losers were dominated by metals and mining stocks (-2.8%) and oils (-2.6%).  Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios lost in excess of the market.

The above trends are rather "meandering", and give few clues as to the direction of tomorrow's market.

Sep 8:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Healthcare stocks led the way today...up 1.3%.  Stocks with large gains over the last month were strong, though stocks with relatively large losses over the last year were also strong.  Retails continued their recent strength.

Oils were the biggest loser by far today...down 1.9%.  The next closest group, stocks that have lagged their best trading partners over the last 20 days, lost only .6%.  Yearlong winners and monthlong losers were weak.  Wednesday's big losers suffered again.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Sep 7:  The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.0%.

Only one group finished with gains (of about .03%!)...retails.  Stocks that were strong this time last year held up well.  Software stocks managed to avoid large losses. 

On the losing side, biotechs topped our list...down 2%.  Volatiles in general were weak.  3 month to 1 year losers were hurt. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 6:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Stocks that closed yesterday near their lows performed best...down .5%.  Free agents fared well.  Non-volatiles and REIT's outperformed.

Losing groups were topped by semiconductors...down 3.1%.  Oils were weak as well...down 2.9%.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.  Stocks with nice gains over the last month were punished.  Stocks with high recent volatility fell in excess of the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 5:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Stocks with nice gains over the last week were strongest...up 1.9%.  Last Friday's big gainers were particularly strong.  Volatiles were strong.  Stocks with large 3 month losses climbed.

On the negative side, dividend payers lost as much as .4%.  Utilities were particularly weak.  Non-volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 1:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Oils were strongest today...up 1.5%.  Given the fact that they were the losingest group last month, it should be no surprise that stocks with large losses over the last month also fared well.  Metals and mining stocks were strong. 

On the weak side, semiconductors dropped .8%.  REIT's were weak as well.  Stocks with nice gains last month reversed.

The above trends are neutral for the next session...the general gains in the market are nice, but the weakness in volatile semiconductors is just a tad troubling.

***************

We've got our data for the month of August.  Despite weakness in the first half of the month, the market actually churned out gains nearing 3%.

Stocks that came into the month with short term averages well below longer term averages were strongest...up over 8%.  Other indicators of losses, particularly over the longer term, also figured prominently in our tables of winners.  Computer peripherals and semiconductors gained nicely.  Cheap stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, oils led the way...down about 1%.  Otherwise, losers were a reverse image of winners...stocks with big gains over the long term were weak.  Expensive stocks failed to partake in the gains.

It's a bit unusual to see long term losers leading the market in the month of August.  You've got to go back to 1994 to see that sort of behavior.  For what it's worth, September 1994 was a tad negative, though continued gains were available in stocks with large long term losses, computer stocks, cheap stocks, and "free agents".  Retails suffered.

Aug 31:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .1%.  Our own take on the market had it up .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Stocks trading well below their most prominent resistance levels were strongest today...up as much as 1.7%.  Three month to 1 year losers were strong as well.  Volatiles outperformed.  Small caps were strong.

On the losing side, stocks that have strongly outperformed their best trading partner over the last month were weak...down .6%.  The trend was not significant, however.  Stocks with big gains in the last month to year lost.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 30:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Semiconductors were strongest today...up 2%.  Stocks with large losses over the last three months followed.  Volatile stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, oils continued to slide...down .6%.  Utilities were weak as well.  Expensive stocks, non-volatiles, and large-caps rounded out our list of losing positions.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 29:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.8%.

Stocks whose short term moving averages are well below their longer term averages led the way...up 1.9%.  Cheap stocks, those with high or negative p/e ratios, volatiles, and yearlong losers found themselves in the mix.  No industries were represented on the winning side of our tables.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Expensive stocks gained as little as .2%.  Large caps, non-volatiles, and dividend-payers were weak.  Brokerages and other financial service stocks were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 28:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Despite the positive nature of today's session, no trends of significance emerged.  Last Friday's losers reversed...up as much as 1.8%.  Volatiles were relatively strong.  No industry groups appeared on the positive side of our tables.

On the negative side, oils lost .5%.  Stocks with big gains last weak reversed. 

Aug 25:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .2%.  Our own take on the market had it up .1%.  Separation between groups was again minimal...1.9%.

Oils repeated yesterday's strength...up 1.2%.  Stocks with big yearlong losses or monthlong gains were strong.  Despite the weakness in the Nasdaq index, both biotechs and software stocks outperformed.  Stocks with a history of gains in this time slot continued to gain.  Cheap stocks and volatiles gained.

On the weak side, we see retails again...down .7%.  Insurance and bank stocks lost.  Non-volatiles were weak.

Despite the general flatness in today's session, the above trends are fairly positive for the next session...today's gainers show a willingness for traders to take a stake in risky positions.

Aug 24:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.1%, continuing the rather brusque decrease in volatility we saw a couple weeks ago.

Oils led the way this time...up .9%.  Stocks with large 1 month gains fared well.  Those that performed well at this time last year repeated their gains.  Biotechs and healthcare stocks outperformed.  Yesterday's big losers reversed.

On the negative side, retails lost as much as 1.2%. 

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Aug 23:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was a meager 1.7%...another day of low volatility.

We didn't identify any groups that made money.  One of our proprietary indicators predicted losses as low as .1%.  Free agents held up well.  Non-volatiles outperformed.  Stocks with losses over the last three months or so stayed ahead of the general market.

Losers were led by stocks that have strongly outperformed their "trading partners" over the last month...down 1.8%.  Some heavy industries were hurt in excess of the market.  Oils dropped.  Stocks with large gains over the last month to year underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session, though it's encouraging that volatiles were not picked on to any great extent.

Aug 22:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2%...seems like market volatility has dropped rather substantially in the last couple weeks.

Yearlong losers were strongest today...up 1.6%.  Yesterday's big winners were also strong.  Volatiles outperformed.  Cheap stocks and fundamentally weak stocks (as measured by p/e ratios) were also to be seen on the winning side of our tables.

Nothing of great significance was to be found on the negative side of our tables.  Stocks with a strong recent tendency to finish near their highs lost as much as .4%. 

No industry groups were seen on either side of our tables!

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 21:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Oils were strongest...up .5%.  Stocks with losses last week reversed.  Free agents finished in positive territory.  REIT's stayed above water.  Small caps fared well.

Stocks with big gains last week reversed...down as much as 1.7%.  Semiconductors were weak. 

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.  It is encouraging, however, that volatiles weren't selected out for the largest losses.

Aug 18:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was a sedate 2%.

Once again, stocks with large losses over the last month were strong...up 1.5%.  Three month and yearlong losers were strong as well.  Monday's losers gained nicely.  Volatiles and cheap stocks outperformed. 

Stocks with large gains over the last month were weakest...down .6%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week underperformed.  Banks tended toward losses.  Stocks with heavy institutional ownership dropped.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 17:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Yesterday's and Tuesday's trends persisted...stocks with large losses over the last one to three months were strongest...up as much as 2.6%.  Volatiles fared well.  Stocks with a 3 year history of strength in this period were strong.  Industry groups were not featured on the positive side of our tables.

Oils were weakest today...down .7%.  Utilities and metals and mining stocks were also weak.  Stocks with large gains over the last 3 months to 1 year lost money.  Non-volatiles finished with losses.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though one should bear in mind that Fridays have a way of unlinking themselves with the previous day's trends.

Aug 16:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 3.7%.

The strongest stocks were the most volatile...up as much as 3.3%.  Yesterday's patterns largely repeated...one month to three month losers were strong, alongside semiconductors.  Yesterday's winners continued winning.

On the negative side, utilities lost as much as .4%.  REIT's and oils lagged the market.  Stocks with large 3 month gains underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 15:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 2.2%.  Separation between groups was 3.4%.

Volatiles led the way today...up as much as 3.5%.  Stocks with a 3 year history of gains in this time slot followed closely.  Computer peripherals were strong.  Stocks with large losses over the last 1 to 3 months reversed.

No groups actually lost money today.  Small-cap, illiquid stocks were weak, gaining as little as .1%.  Free agents lagged.  Non-volatiles and utilities underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

**************

We have our data for the first half of the month.  The general market lost about 2% over the period.

The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile.  Some of these groups actually finished with slight gains (about .2%) over the period.  Retails were flat over the period.

Some large, focused losses were seen.  Stocks that have a strong 3 year history of losses over the period continued their losing ways...down 8%.  Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were weak. Cheap stocks, stocks with high recent volatility, those with large 3 month losses, and those with large gains on the last day of July rounded out our list of losers.

The above trends match up fairly well with those of August h1 2002.  August h2 2002 was flat, but very nice gains (around 15%) were available for those who had the gumption to purchase stocks with large 3 month losses.  Volatiles were strong, but semiconductors did not partake in this strength.

Aug 14:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Semiconductors were strongest today...up 1.2%.  Stocks with high institutional ownership fared well. 

On the negative side, oils lost 1.9%, far outdistancing any other group.  Expensive stocks lost money today.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 11:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .7%.  Our own take on the market had it down .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  A proprietary indicator predicted losses as low as .2%, though the level of significance here was low.  Non-volatiles were relatively strong.  Stocks that lost in this time slot last year were strong this time around.

Losers were led by stocks with high or negative p/e ratios...down 2.4%.  Stocks with big losses over the last week to 3 months performed poorly.  Cheap stocks were weak. 

No industry groups were to be found on either side of our tables!

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 10:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Retails were strong today...up 1.7%.  Software stocks fared nicely as well.  Stocks with big increases in volume in yesterday's session outperformed. 

On the negative side, stocks with particularly strong momentum over the last week reversed...down 1%.  Oils and metals and mining were weak.  Free agents were flat. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Aug 9:  The Dow lost .9% while Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 3%.

One of our proprietary indicators ("slice3") predicted gains as high as .4% today.  The second strongest predictor of gains today was a cheap stock price.  Utilities, oils, AND semiconductors eked out gains.  Stocks with weak volume over the last 10 days held up well.  Despite the weakness in the Dow, non-volatiles did outperform.

Stocks that have diverged (in a negative direction) from their best "trading partners" over the last month were weakest...down 2.6%.  Losers over the last 1 month to year continued to lose.   Heavy industries were weak.  Despite the gains in semiconductors, volatile stocks were generally weak.

The strength in semiconductors is cause for optimism, but all things considered we'd have to guess at continued losses in the next session.

Aug 8:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Utilities resumed their winning ways...up .3%.  Free agents finished with gains.  Non-volatiles resisted losses. 

Volatiles were hit...down as much as 2.1%.  Stocks with a recent history of gains in the afterhours sessions were nearly as bad.  1 month losers continued losing.  Come to think of it, the last few months of market action have seen little in the way of reversals...mostly, we see losers continuing to lose.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged will probably be the prime consideration in the next session.  We'll see.

Aug 7:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was surprisingly small...1.6%.

Oils were the strongest group today...up .2%.  Metals and mining, and some heavy industry stocks stayed above water.  Free agents fared well.  Large caps outperformed.

Stocks seen as particularly risky (cheap AND volatile) took the biggest losses...down 1.5%.  Software stocks were weak.  3 month losers were again hurt. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 4:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

REIT's were clearly the big winner today...up 1.4%.  Non-volatiles gained a tad.  Otherwise, nothing of great significance was generated on the positive side of our tables.

Stocks of high, but not extreme, volatility lost as much as 1.2%....the trend was not particularly significant.  Stocks with a recent tendency to close near their highs were burned.  Yearlong gainers fell in excess of the market.  Stocks with a three-year history of large losses in this time slot continued the pattern.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 3:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

No positive trends of great significance emerged.  About the best one could do was to buy Tuesday's losers...up as much as 1.9%.  Retails outperformed. 

On the weak side, oils got burned...down .7%.  Utilities were weak as well.  Non-volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 2:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Monday's losers bounced back...up 2.3%.  Volatiles were relatively strong.  3 month losers outperformed.

On the losing side, utilities lost about .3%, breaking a nice winning streak in the group.  Non-volatiles were weak.  Stocks with big 3 month gains underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 1:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 3.8%.

Utilities led all winning groups today...up .7%.  This group has been on a nice winning streak over the last few months.  Non-volatiles avoided losses. 

On the losing side, semiconductors dropped 3.1%.  July's big losers continued getting hit.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  We will, however, make a wild guess that semiconductors will outperform tomorrow.

************

We've got our data for the second half of July.  Here, we have the market gaining better than 3%. 

Stocks with big losses to close the first half of the month were strongest...up as much as 8%.  Stocks with 3 month losses were strong as well.  Software stocks gained nicely. 

Only one of our groups actually lost over the period...stocks that have fared poorly in this time slot over the last 3 years were down about .1%.  Yearlong losers were weak.  Large caps underperformed.

This year's July matches up fairly well with last year's.  The first couple of weeks of August 2005 showed general losses of about 2%, with volatiles, 3 month winners, and yearlong losers getting hit fairly hard.  Despite the losses, dividend payers were weak as well.

****************

We've got our data for the month of July.  Our own take on the market has it down 3% over the period.

Despite the general losses, a number of groups could have made you money.  Topping the list of winners was utilities...up 6.5%.  Obviously, these gains were particularly impressive after risk-adjustment.  Non-volatiles actually gained...up as much as 2%.  REIT's and banks finished with gains. 

Cheap stocks were punished...down as much as 10%.  The losses would have been greater if not for a nice reversal of this trend on the last day of July.  Volatiles were punished.  Stocks with a history of losses in the period continued to lose.  Yearlong losers continued downward.  Transportation-related stocks were hurt.

The above trends are typical for July.  July 2004 matches up well with the current July.  For what it's worth, August 2004 was flat, with a continuance of July's trends.  Stocks that gained in the closing days of July 2004 got burned. 

July 31:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .1% .  Our own take on the market had it up about .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Cheap stocks topped our list of gainers...up 1.9%.  That's the first time in quite a while we've seen this group perform like this...a few years ago, such performances were commonplace.  Friday's big losers reversed.  Three month losers performed well.  Stocks that have gained strongly in this time slot over the last three years were strong again.

On the negative side, banks lost .7%.  Transports weren't far behind.  Non-volatiles were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though it should be noted that end-of-month sessions can be a bit anomalous.

July 28:  The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Stocks trading well below their 20 day moving average gained nicely...up 3%.  Semiconductors fared well.  Stocks with a large high-close differential were strong.

Only one group lost money today..."free agents" were down .2%.  Cheap stocks failed to partake in the buying spree.  Monday's losers were relatively weak.  No industry groups appeared on the weak side of our tables.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 27:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Software stocks held up well, especially when one considers today's split between the Dow and Nasdaq.  Large caps and non-volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, volatiles were burned to the tune of as much as 2.8%.  Stocks with large 3 month losses continued to lose.  Monday's big gainers reversed.  Yesterday's gainers were weak as well.  No industry groups appeared on the negative side of our tables.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session, though Fridays have a way of reversing Thursday's action.

July 26:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .2%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Oils led the way today...up 1.3%.  Volatile stocks actually outperformed the market today...a positive sign.  Yesterday's gainers continued to gain.  Cheap stocks fared well.

On the negative side, stocks with moderately weak performances over the last week or so lost around 1.7%.  Stocks in our "business services" category suffered. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

July 25:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Stocks with high recent volatility led the way today...up as much as 2.4%.  Yesterday's weak stocks rebounded.  Oils and metals and mining fared well. 

Weak stocks were led by "free agents"...a rather surprising result, as we've noted a tendency for these stocks to bounce back after weakness in a particularly positive session (e.g. yesterday's)...down .1%.  Non-volatiles were weak.  No industry groups were featured on the negative side of our tables.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 24:  The Dow gained 1.7%, Nasdaq 2.0%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Semiconductors stormed back from last Friday's losses...up 3.6%.  Volatiles were strong.  Stocks that performed well in this time slot last year repeated the performance.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The worst of the lot was "free agents", gaining around .3%.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Stocks with a strong tendency to stick at various resistance levels were weak.  No industry groups were seen in today's tables of market underperformers.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 21:   The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 4.5%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Stocks trading well over their 100 days averages gained as much as .5%.  "Free agents" fared well.  Non-volatiles outperformed.

Semiconductors took some heavy losses...down 4%.  Stocks with large gains over the last year had large losses.  Volatiles were hurt.  Stocks with large losses this time last year repeated their weakness.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 20:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq 2%.  Separation between groups was 3.8%.

Only one group showed gains...utilities were up about .2%.  Non-volatiles, free agents, and yesterday's losers were next in line. 

Metals and mining stocks got clobbered...down 3.6%.  Yesterday's winners reversed.  Stocks that were strong at this time last year were weak this time around.

Bearing in mind that Friday is the day most likely to reverse the previous day's trends, the above trends are negative.  One positive note is that volatile stocks were not singled out for punishment today.

July 19:  The Dow gained 2%, Nasdaq 1.8%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with a strong tendency to finish near their lows over the last month or so were strong today, gaining as much as 4.3%.  Volatiles fared well. Stocks with large 3 month losses gained nicely, but yearlong winners also prospered.  No industry groups were found in our tables of big winners.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The worst of the lot was stocks that finished yesterday's session near their lows...up .8%.  Non-volatiles were weak.  Stocks with large gains over the last 3 months underperformed.  "Free agents" failed to keep pace...perhaps they'll make a move tomorrow.  The only industry group found in the mix was utilities.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 18:   The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Banks gained nicely...up 1.5%.  REIT's fared well as well.  Small caps generally outperformed, despite the apparent strength in the Dow. 

On the negative side, stocks with large yearlong losses dropped as much as 1%.  Retails reversed their relatively strong recent behavior.  Volatiles tended to lose in excess of the market.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

************

We've got our data for the first half of July.  The market plopped a tad over 6% in this period.

Only one group actually gained...utilities were up about .5%.  REIT's had minimal losses.  Non-volatiles held up well. 

On the negative side, volatiles dropped as much as 11%.  Stocks with negative p/e ratios were hurt.  Stocks that were particularly strong at this time last year got burned this time around.  Stocks with strong yearlong performances reversed.

July h1 2004 and 1996 match up fairly well with the action we've seen in the last two weeks.  For what it's worth, July h2 2004 and 1996 both showed small losses in the general market.  No winning strategies of great significance emerged in either of these two periods.  On the short side, volatiles would best be avoided.

July 17:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq was flat.  Our own take on the market had it down .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Banks led the way today...up .5%.  Retails were relatively strong.  Non-volatiles outperformed. 

Oils topped our list of losing stocks...down 2%.  Cheap stocks, volatiles, and stocks with large 1 month to 1 year gains were weak.  Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios underperformed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 14:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

The only group that gained was oils...up .2%.  Banking stocks and utilities had minimal losses.  Stocks that were weak this time last year reversed.  Non-volatiles in general held up well.

Stocks with large losses over the course of the last year topped our list of losers...down 2%.  Biotechs suffered.  Transport-related stocks were weak.  Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were hit. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 13:  The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.7%. Separation between groups was 2.8%.

We didn't identify any groups that made money today.  Non-volatiles were strongest, losing as little as .6%.  Stocks that closed near their highs yesterday managed to outperform the market.  No industry groups were found in our lists of strong performers.

Stocks with negative profit margins topped all losers...down 3.4%.  Stocks with strong performances in the last month reversed.  Yesterday's losers continued to lose.  Cheap stocks underperformed the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 12:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq 1.8%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today.  The best of the lot was REIT's...down a mere .2%.  Expensive stocks did a good job of holding ground.  Utilities were relatively strong.  Non-volatiles, not surprisingly, outperformed. 

Stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session topped the list of losers...down 2.9%.  Semiconductors weren't far behind, reversing yesterday's gains.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 11:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Semiconductors bounced back from yesterday's losses...up 2.4%.  Stocks with large losses over the last week or so fared well. 

On the negative side, retails suffered...down .3%.  Otherwise, no trends of great significance emerged.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

July 10:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

REIT's led the way today...up 1.1%.  Utilities were strong as well.  Non-volatiles in general outperformed.

The negative side of the market was dominated by tech stocks...semiconductors dropped 1.8%, and biotech stocks weren't far behind.  Cheap stocks were hurt.  Last week's big losers continued to lose. 

The above trends are negative for the next market session.

July 7:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Only one group gained...utilities moved .2%.  Non-volatiles were flat.  The smallest of small caps outperformed.  Biotechs were stronger than the average stock.  Free agents avoided large losses. 

On the negative side we find the most volatile stocks...down as much as 2.6%.  Semiconductors were punished.  Stocks with large yearlong gains were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 6:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market...a proprietary indicator ("slice3") predicted gains as high as 1.3%.  Yesterday's losers were strong. 

Losing trends were a bit more well-defined...stocks that significantly underperformed their best trading partner in the last session lost 1.1%.  Yesterday's winners were weak.  Cheap stocks lagged the market. 

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

July 5:  The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Separation between groups was 3.4%.

Winners were led by stocks whose ownership divided by market-capitalization is particularly high...up 1.1%.  Such stocks are small-caps, so it's not surprising that we find small caps in general faring well today.  Monday's big losers were strong.

On the negative side, semiconductors lost 2.4%.  Stocks with strong performances over the last week reversed.  Monday's big gainers reversed.  Volatiles were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 3:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Winners were led by stocks with a large "high-close" differential in the last session...up 2.5%...quite typical for the first day of a quarter.  Late June losers were strong as well. 

The weak side of the market was led by the "inverse" of the above:  stocks with strong performances in late June lost as much as 1.7%.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

July 2:  The second half of June was strong...up about 3%.

Oils topped our list of winners, gaining about 8% in this 10 day span.  Volatile stocks in general were strong.  Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels continued to prosper. 

On the losing side, "free agents" dropped a tad...down .2%.  Stocks with particularly weak volume in the preceding weeks were flat.  Non-volatiles failed to make inroads.

The above trends don't match up particularly strongly with any historical Jun h2's in our tables.  2004 is a weak example...July h1 2004, for what it's worth, was quite weak, with major losses (15%) in volatile stocks, and few opportunities for a profit on the long side of the market.

July 1:  We've got our data for the second quarter...our own take on the market has it down 5.5%.

Only a handful of groups gained over the quarter.  The list is led by utilities, gaining a bit better than 3%.  Transportation-related stocks also fared well.  Non-volatiles and dividend-payers held up well.

Losers were topped by stocks with high or negative p/e ratios...down 15%.  Biotechs, which often fall nicely into that category, just trailed.  Computer peripherals were weak as well.  Stocks with large yearlong gains reversed.  Stocks that were strong in the second quarter of 2005 were quite weak this time around, though stocks with a longer term tendency for Q2 weakness stayed true to form.  Volatile stocks in general slumped.

The recent Q2 compares fairly well with Q2 2004.  For what it's worth, Q3 2004 continued to drop about 4%, with mild gains to be found in non-volatiles.

***********

We've got our data for June.  Despite the one day swings we experienced during the month, the end result was about a .5% loss in the general market, by our take.

The best you could have done was to load up on REIT's...up about 4.4%.  Small caps were just behind.  Dividend payers fared well.  Stocks that were weak in the last few days of May turned around in June. 

On the negative side, stocks with a history of losses in June continued to lose...down 4.1%.  Those with strong May finishes reversed.  Semiconductors were weak, as were volatile stocks in general.  On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks with heavy institutional ownership were quite weak.

Looking for historical Junes that match up with the current one, June 2002 offers some weak similarities.  For what it's worth, July 2002 was strongly negative, with late June winners getting slaughtered (down about 11%).

June 30:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it UP .7%.  This discrepancy is so unusual that we opened up our underlying data file and checked for possible errors, but we found none.  Remember that our analysis of the market is non-weighted....the movements of a small bank in Nebraska are as important as IBM's, as far as our analysis goes.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Gainers were led by volatiles...up 2.9%.  Stocks whose short term averages are well below their longer term averages gained nicely.  Yearlong losers popped.  Yesterday's gainers continued to gain.  Cheap stocks fared well.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the losing side.  Non-volatiles were weak.  While big yearlong losers gained nicely, stocks with more moderate yearlong losses were flat.  Banks failed to keep up with the market.

The above trends are positive for the next session. 

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