Sep 28:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .3%.  Our own take on the market had it down .8%...small caps were hit.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Stocks held by large number of institutions (as a percentage of market cap) were strongest today...up 1%.  In fact the next closest group gained a mere .3%.  This group of stocks tends to be small-cap in nature so, despite the general trend toward losses in small caps, we have relatively large gains in those small caps that are heavily owned by institutions...is it any surprise that institutions would step in and dominate trading on the last day of the quarter?

Free agents tended to gain.  Volatiles actually managed to outperform the general market, though non-volatiles were relatively strong as well. 

On the negative side, regional banks suffered to the tune of 2.2%.  As stated above, the bulk of small-caps underperformed.

It's interesting to note that the trading session that best matches today's is that of 9/27/2006.  6/27/2007 was also a strong match.  Who says end-of-quarter window dressing is a myth?

The above behavior is generally negative for the next session, but the unusual trading today and the fact that we're entering a new quarter blurs out our ability to forecast the next session.

Sep 27:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.6%.

Oils were strongest today...up 1.4%.  As is often the case when oils gain, metals and mining stocks rose as well.  Stocks with big gains last Friday fared well.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

On the losing side, last Friday's big losers repeated their losing ways...down .2%.  Again, stocks with big losses over a scale of week to 3 months did not impress...it'll be interesting to see if these trends are accentuated or reverse tomorrow.  Biotechs and retails were flat.  Free agents underperformed.

The above trends are slightly positive for tomorrow.  However, it's a Friday, which tends to reverse weekly trends.  It's also the last day of the quarter, which can sometimes provide some insights into the trends that will emerge in the upcoming quarter.

Sep 26:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks with big gains in the previous session were strongest today...up 1.5%.  In fact, stocks with nice gains on a scale of 1 day to 1 month tended to fare well.  Transportation-related stocks outperformed. 

On the negative side, stocks with large losses over the last week finished in negative territory...down .8%.  Yearlong and quarterly losers were burned again.  Volatile stocks underperformed.

The above trends are mixed for the next session...the general gains are nice to see, but the losses in volatiles are foreboding.

Sep 25:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .6%.  Our own take on the market had it down .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Semiconductors were strong, explaining Nasdaq's gains...up .9%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains continued to prosper.  Non-volatiles outperformed.  Stocks with unusually heavy volume over the last few days fared well.

Again, stocks that have taken a beating over the last 3 months to year were punished...down as much as 2.2%.  We expect this behavior to turn around some time next month.  Retails were weak.  Last Friday's big losers lost again.  Despite the strength in semiconductors, volatiles were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 24:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .8%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

REIT's were by far the strongest group today...up .8%.  Small, illiquid stocks avoided losses.  Non-volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, last Thursday's big losers got hit again...down 2.7%.  Stocks with p/e's under 7.0 were hurt...an odd trend that we saw last week as well.   Long term losers of numerous shades...3 month, 1 year, those trading far below their prime resistance levels...continued to lose. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 21:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Stocks with a high "perceived risk" were strongest today...up 1.7%.  Yesterday's big gainers continued upwards, whereas Wednesday's big losers did the same.  Stocks with nice gains over the last month fared well. 

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Stocks with low p/e ratios finished in negative territory.  Non-volatiles did not impress.  Banks were weak.  Heavy industry did not impress.  Stocks with poor momentum tended to continue losing.

One wonders if the recent rate cut is responsible for some of the above behaviors...it's a tad unusual to see stocks with low p/e ratios getting selected out for punishment, and non-volatiles finishing in negative territory when the general market rose.  Such behavior would seem to bode well for the upcoming months...money is getting redistributed into a whole new lot of stocks.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 20:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .5%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up .3%.  Metals and mining stocks finished above water.  Stocks with a low "leadership" ranking avoided big losses.  Non-volatiles outperformed.

Stocks with a large high-close differential on Wednesday lost significantly...down 3%.  Tuesday's big gainers reversed.  In fact, stocks that have been strong for the last week all tended to reverse.  Volatiles were hurt.  Stocks trading well under prime resistance levels tended to lose.  Somewhat counter intuitively, stocks with low p/e ratios got hit as well.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  Friday sessions do have a relatively strong tendency to reverse the previous day's trends, however.

Sep 19:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .6%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.2%...small caps were strong.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Volatiles were strongest today...up 2.8%.  It's been a while since we've seen volatiles top the positive column...a good sign.  Stocks with large losses over the last 1 to 3 months fared well.  Monday's big losers reversed.  Stocks with a tendency toward gains in the afterhours continued to move upwards.

Nothing of great significance emerged in the losing column.  In fact, we didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Large caps tended toward weakness...up as little as .1%.  Stocks with big gains at this time last year were weak this time around.  Non-volatiles underperformed.

No industry groups appeared in our tables today...that wasn't where the action was.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 18:  The Dow gained 2.5%, Nasdaq 2.7%.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.4%.  Separation between groups was 5.5%.

Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners in the last month were our strongest group today...up 5.6%.  Stocks with high recent volatility prospered.  Banks were very strong.  Last Wednesday's big losers and Thursday's big gainers fared well. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Small, illiquid stocks nearly did, however...up a mere .1%.  Cheap stocks were weak.  Free agents did not impress...on a day like this, you don't want to be holding stocks that march to a different drummer.  Biotechs lagged.  Non-volatiles couldn't keep up.  Finally, stocks that finished Monday's session near their highs petered-out in this session.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

******************

We've got our data for the first half of September.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.9%.

Oils were by far the strongest performers...up 4%.  Stocks with big gains over the last 3 months continued moving upward, albeit a mere 1.5%.  Large caps outperformed.  Stocks with weak performances in this time slot last year were strong this time around.  Non-volatiles finished with gains.

On the negative side, stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels were weakest...down 5.2%.  Despite the strength in non-volatiles, heavy industry (construction, automobile and airline manufacturing, etc.) did not impress.  Volatiles were punished.

The above trends (strength in long term winners, weakness in losers, general losses in the market) are fairly typical for this time of year.  Assuming the usual trends hold up, we should expect the current trends to hold up until the end of September.  The unknown, of course, is the reaction of the market to the upcoming Fed decision.

Sep 17:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.7%...it seems as if the upcoming Fed decision induces stocks to huddle up and move in sync, as opposed to increasing volatility.

Some of our proprietary indicators predicted losses as low as .2%, though the results weren't statistically significant.  Healthcare stocks fared well.  Stocks trading well over their 100 day averages fared well.  Non-volatiles outperformed.

Stocks with large 3 month losses were weakest...down 1.9%.  Stocks with big losses over the last one month to one year were also weak.  Volatiles suffered.  Cheap stocks and stocks with negative p/e ratios were all weak...the general impression is of a very risk-averse market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  Of course, tomorrow's action will depend almost entirely on the Fed's decision.  If today's session is an indication, the market expects disappointment.

Sep 14:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq was flat.  Our own take on the market had it up .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Stocks with high recent volatility led the way today...up 2.6%.  Cheap stocks gained nicely.  Stocks with yearlong losses, or trading well below their prime resistance levels, fared well.  Monday's losers reversed.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the negative side of our tables.  Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios lost around .6%. 

No industry groups appeared on either side of the table.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 13:  The Dow gained 1%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

REIT's led our groups today...up 1.7%.  Large caps were quite strong, as one might surmise given the Dow's performance.  Retails fared well. 

Cheap stocks were quite weak...down 1.1%.  Both biotechs and semiconductors lost money, so it's not surprising that volatile stocks were high on our list of losers (higher than either industry, actually).  Tuesday's big losers lost again.   

The above trends are mixed for the next session...the general gains are nice, but the weakness in volatiles is foreboding.  Plus, Friday has a habit of reversing Thursday's trends.

Sep 12:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Oils were by far the strongest performers...up 1%.  Free agents reversed yesterday's weakness.  Stocks with poor performances this time last year fared well today.

On the negative side, last Friday's big losers lost again...down 1.7%.  Stocks with a series of recent losses were hurt.  Volatiles were again weak. 

The above trends are negative as predictors of the next session.

Sep 11:  The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 2%.

Stocks with large losses last Friday were today's strongest group...up 2.2%.  Last Thursday's big gainers also fared well.  No industry groups were featured in our tables.

Free agents were weak, gaining only .2%.  Volatiles underperformed.  Cheap stocks and small, illiquid stocks did not impress.

The strong performance of the general market is nice, but we don't like to see volatiles featured on the negative side of our tables.  In the end, today's trends forecast a weakly positive session tomorrow.

Sep 10:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .3%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Stocks with strong, if not extreme, volume last Friday led gainers today...up .6%. The trend, however, was not significant.  Large caps outperformed.  Non-volatiles resisted losses.

On the negative side, stocks with large losses over the last three months got burned...down 2.5%.  Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were also hurt.  Volatiles suffered. 

No industry groups appeared on either side of our tables.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 7:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Stocks held by large numbers of institutions relative to market cap were strongest today...down a mere .7%.  These stocks tend to be small caps, so it's not surprising that this group fared well also.  Non-volatiles resisted losses.  Surprisingly, yearlong losers avoided big losses.  Free agents were strong.  Biotechs outperformed.

Stocks with a series of recent losses continued downwards, losing as much as 3.1%.  Wednesday's big losers were particularly weak.  Retails suffered.  Stocks trading well above their best trading partners tended to lose.  Volatiles were hurt.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 6:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .3%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Small caps...but not the smallest of the small...led our groups today...up 1.5%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains were strong.  Biotechs fared well.  Oils gained nicely.  Stocks with a history of strength in this time slot tended toward repeat performances.

On the negative side, stocks trading well under their 100 day averages lost 1%.  Similarly, stocks trading well below their most prominent resistance levels tended toward losses.  Brokerages were weak.  Volatile stocks did not impress.

The above trends are mixed as indicators for the next session...the general gains are nice, but the losses in volatiles should be seen as negative.

Sep 5:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Stocks held by large numbers of institutions as a percentage of market capitalization were the only group that avoided losses today, gaining just a tad over 0%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains were strong.  Non-volatiles and free agents outperformed.  Oils held up well.

Stocks trading well under their most prominent resistance levels were weak...down 2.8%.  Volatiles were burned.  Last Wednesday's big gainers reversed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 4:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels were strongest today...up 2.5%.  Despite this strength, yearlong losers had a nice day as well.  Oils and biotechs weren't far behind.  Volatile stocks gained nicely. 

As is often the case, stocks that finished near their highs on the last day of the month (August) were weak...down .2%.  This group, in fact, was the only one that walked away from the session with losses.  Retails were flat.  Stocks that finished the month with strong volume tended toward weakness.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 1:  We've got our data for the month of August.  Despite all the volatility, the end result was a .5% gain for the general market, at least from our perspective.

Banks led the way, reversing the ugliness of July...up 7.4%.  REIT's gained nicely as well.  On a risk-adjusted basis, non-volatiles performed well.

Losers were topped by stocks with low (but not negative) book values...down 6%.  Following just behind were stocks with large yearlong losses.  The continued attacks on already downtrodden positions set the stage for nice reversals in the future, but we'd be careful about bottom fishing in September.  Cheap stocks, volatile stocks, July's big losers (despite the fact that a number of banks had large July losses), and stocks that finished July with poor momentum round out the list of losing positions.

The above trends are typical for August in the sense that non-volatiles tend to outperform, while yearlong losers tend to continue losing.  At the same time, August 2007 does not match up strongly with any historical Augusts, so we'll avoid making any predictions based on "historical matching".

Aug 31:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Stocks with a large close-low differential on Thursday led our list of gainers...up 3.2%.  Stocks trading well below their 100 day averages reversed nicely.  Monday's big losers fared well.  Volatiles in general outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Utilities were weak, gaining a mere .5%.  Non-volatiles lagged. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.  We would, however, caution against expecting stocks with big gains today or this week to carry this momentum into September.

Aug 30:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .5%.  Separation between groups was 2%...the lowest we've seen for quite a while.

Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels were strongest today...up .5%.  Those with big gains over the last 3 months gained nicely.  However, yearlong losers outperformed as well.  Biotechs were strong.

On the negative side, regional banks lost 1.4%.  Retails did not impress.  Tuesday's big losers continued downwards.

The above trends are slightly negative.  Friday has a way of confounding expectations, however.

Aug 29:  The Dow gained 1.9%, Nasdaq 2.5%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Stocks with big losses yesterday were strongest...up 3.6%.  Those with large losses over the last week were also strong.  We didn't see any industry groups amongst our winners.

Stocks with a small high-close differential were weakest...up only .7%.  Small, illiquid stocks did not impress, nor did cheap stocks in general.  Biotechs lagged. 

Looking at ETF's, we saw some big gains in specialized natural resources, REIT, and semiconductor funds.  Bond funds tended toward losses.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though we'd like to see volatiles partake in more of the action.

Aug 28:  The Dow lost 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.4%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

We didn't identify any winning groups today.  About the best one could do was to invest in small, illiquid stocks...down .9%.  Non-volatiles, free agents, and biotechs outperformed.

Construction services were burned...down 3.9%.  Yesterday's big losers continued to drop, while last Wednesday's and Friday's big winners did the same.  Stocks with big losses over the last three months were hurt.  Volatiles underperformed the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Aug 27:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .6%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

A proprietary indicator ("vslice3") led the way in predicting gains today...up .5%.  Oddly, stocks with negative p/e ratios performed well.  Stocks with poor momentum tended to reverse.  Cheap stocks avoided losses. 

Losers were led by stocks with high recent volatility...down 2%.  Utilities were quite weak.  Stocks with particularly low p/e ratios (many of which are utilities) were hit.  REIT's did not impress.  Friday's big gainers reversed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 24:  The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was a mellow 2.2%.

Metals and mining stocks were strong, gaining 2.1%.  Oils, as is often the case, followed closely behind.  Stocks with big gains over the last year fared well...a bit of a reversal of recent trends toward bottom-fishing.

Only a few groups actually lost money.  Biotechs led the way...down .2%.  Stocks with big dividends were weak.  REIT's did not impress.  In general, stocks with big yearlong losses were flat.  Cheap stocks underperformed.

ETF results pretty much paralleled our own...basic materials tended to gain, while REIT's lost.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though not overwhelmingly so...it would have been nice to see volatile stocks lead the market today.

Aug 23:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .4%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Stocks held by large numbers of institutions (relative to capitalization) were strongest...up 1%.  This figure correlates strongly with a low market capitalization, so we shouldn't be surprised to see small caps outperforming, despite Nasdaq's weakness.  Free agents, biotechs, and cheap stocks round out our list of strong performers.

Losers were led by stocks that have strongly outperformed their best trading partners over the last month...down 2.4%.  Banks were weak. 

Some ETF's with a focus in oil or natural gas showed gains approaching 2% today.  Real estate funds tended towards weakness, though the losses were fairly minimal.

The above trends are actually fairly positive for the next session.  Despite the slight negativity today, risk-taking is alive and well.

Aug 22:  The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Stocks with large losses over the last month led the way today...up 2.8%.  As with yesterday, stocks that show strength in the afterhours continued upwards.  Metals and mining stocks fared well.  Volatiles outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Stocks with a high "leadership" rating gained a mere .1%.  Stocks with big gains on a scale of a week to a month underperformed.  Non-volatiles lagged.

Asian market ETF's showed some nice gains.  Basic materials, as suggested above, had some very nice showings (as much as +6.5%).  Oil-related funds showed weakness.  The relation between basic materials and oils is generally positive, not negative, so one might speculate that oils would either rise at the expense of materials, or vice versa.

The above trends are positive for the next session. 

Aug 21:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq gained .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours were strongest today...up 1.6%.  Last Wednesday's big losers fared well.  Stocks with large losses over the last 1-3 months outperformed.  Volatiles were strong. 

Losers were led by oils...down 1.1%.  Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels tended towards weakness.

As is often the case, a couple specialty health care funds were strongest...today's was a fund specializing in respiratory situations, gaining 5%. Natural gas funds were weak, losing as much as 2%.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 20:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Stocks with big losses over the last month led the way today...up 1.4%.  Last week's losers, particularly Wednesday's, were strong as well.  REIT's were strong.

On the losing side, stocks with characteristics opposite to those above were weak.  Stocks with big gains last week lost as much as 1.6%.  Monthlong gainers were hurt as well.  Regional banks were weak.

Looking at ETF's, some specialty materials funds gained as much as 5%.  Some funds specializing in utilities were hurt to the tune of 2% losses.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Aug 17:  The Dow gained 1.8%, Nasdaq 2.2%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Stocks with big losses over the last week were strongest...up 5%.  Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session gained nicely.  3 month losers outperformed.  Stocks in the financial and consumer services sectors were strong.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their gained a mere .8%.  Free agents, and stocks with weak recent volume were largely ignored by today's buying wave.  Biotechs did not impress.  Stocks with big gains over the last three months underperformed.  Non-volatiles lagged.

Looking at ETF's, one specialty real-estate fund gained 10%!  A neuroscience-related biotech fund dropped 3.5%. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 16:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .3%.  Our own take on the market had it up a big 1.6%!  That's not as deviant as you might think...the Russell 2000 Index gained 2.3%.  Separation between groups was 9.3%.

Banks were clearly the big winners today...up 7.7%.  Stocks with small (but not the smallest) capitalizations gained nicely.  Monday's big losers reversed.

Free agents were weakest today...down 1.6%.  Cheap stocks fared poorly.  For the second day in a row, stocks with large longterm gains underperformed the market.  Oils were weak.  Volatiles were weak.  So, while yesterday's market showed risk-taking in a strongly losing market, today we have conservative investing in a fairly positive environment.

Looking at ETF's, regional bank funds showed the same sorts of gains we report above...up as much as 7%.  Precious metals funds dipped as much as 5%.

The above trends are schizoid as predictors of the next session.  The general gains are positive.  The losses in volatiles are negative.  Tomorrow is a Friday, the day on which a reversal is most likely.  We'll simply throw up our arms and refuse to speculate on the direction of tomorrow's market.  We would, however, be a bit careful about assuming that, say, the momentum in banking stocks will carry over.

Aug 15:  The Dow lost 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

A few groups actually gained.  Banks led the way, gaining .1%.  Stocks with heavy volume over the previous 3 sessions fared well.  Stocks with a high "perceived risk" avoided losses...a rather odd result given the large losses in the general market.  Biotechs continued to outperform.

On the negative side, stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours lost as much as 2.5%.  Tuesday's big losers continued to lose.  Stocks with large yearlong gains were weak.  Oils, metals and mining, and transportation-related stocks all underperformed.

Looking at ETF's, crude oil funds gained as much as 1.7%.  Funds specializing in basic materials lost as much 4%.

The above trends are only slightly negative for the next session...despite the fairly large losses, a tad of risk-taking was evident.

*********************

We've got our data for the first half of August.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.9%.

Despite the day-to-day swings (as much as 11%) in various groups, the net results for the last two weeks were rather not outrageously interesting.  A few groups gained a tad of money.  Biotechs led the way (up .8%), followed by regional banks, which were essentially flat.  Heavily shorted stocks avoided major losses.  Non-volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with negative cash/share were hit to the tune of 10.3% losses.  Cheap stocks followed closely behind.  Stocks with large losses on a scale as short as a week, to as long as a year, tended to continue getting beaten...it was definitely not a time to go bottom-fishing.  Volatile stocks underperformed the market.  After risk-adjustment, stocks in the "financial services" and "consumer services" groups were quite weak.

Despite the volatility, the above trends are typical for this time of year.  Assuming the market evolves according to its usual seasonality, we might expect a more positive second half.  Risk-takers can consider dabbling in volatiles and losing groups.  Biotechs should continue to outperform. 

Aug 14:  The Dow lost 1.6%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2%.  Separation between groups was a relatively sedate 3.8%.

Stocks held by large number of institutions after adjusting for market-capitalization lost a mere .1%.  This statistic is correlated to the price of stocks, so it's not surprising to see that cheap stocks fared well in today's market.  Biotechs held up nicely.  Non-volatiles resisted large losses.

On the negative side, the stocks with the lowest p/e ratios were weakest, losing 3.8%.  An odd result, to be sure.  Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partner over the last month continued to show weakness.  REIT's lost.  Stocks with large long-term losses tended to lose in excess of the market.

Looking at ETF's, natural gas seemed strong.  Big gains were available in several funds that specialize in shorting basic materials and REIT's.

We'll be analyzing the first half of August in a few hours...should be very interesting.

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Aug 13:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .8%.  Separation between groups was 7.7%.

Our tables were dominated by proprietary indicators, predicting gains as high as 2.6% with good significance.  Stocks with weak, if not the absolute weakest, momentum were strong.  Stocks with a recent tendency to close near their lows gained.

Stocks high momentum dropped as much as 5.1%.  Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their highs followed.  Last Wednesday's big winners reversed.  Thursday's big winners were weak as well.

As has been the case of late, industry groups did not appear on either side of our tables.  Looking at ETF's, one fund specializing in "basic materials" gained 4.9%, though some other "basic materials" funds performed were flat.  Oil and gold appeared weak, though the losses (1.9% at most) were not particularly eye-popping compared to some of the trends we identified.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Aug 11 (Sat):  Just to drill home the point that Friday's big movers related not to industries, but to their recent gains and losses, take a look at the table below.  We picked out the 99 stocks with the worst "momentum" (out of about 2400).  Look at Friday's % gains!  39 of these stocks had gains greater than 12%.  Only four had losses of greater than 5%.  Note also that the big gains aren't correlated with particular industries.

Aug 10:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .4%.  Our own take on the market had it up .5%...that may seem odd, but we note that the Russell 2000 gained about .5%.  Separation between groups was a massive 16.5%!

We wish we had followed our own advice below (Aug 9)...stocks with large losses over the last week averaged 10.4% gains!  Wednesday's big losers were particularly strong, with Thursday's following.  The statistical significance of these moves was very high...4.6 standard deviation units off what you'd expect based on chance.  If a mere handful of stocks with extraordinary gains were biasing our results, we wouldn't see these levels of significance.

On the losing side, stocks with strong momentum lost as much as 6%.  Those with large gains over the last month followed.  . 

Looking at ETF's, small-cap funds fared well...on the order of 3-5% gains.  Losers were led by funds loaded with European stocks...down as much as 3.5%.  These gains and losses, however, are nothing near those mentioned above, so it shouldn't be surprising that no industry groups were found in our tables.

Despite the extraordinary buffeting we saw, the above trends must be considered neutral for the next session.  Don't expect stocks with large recent gains and losses to stay in place, however.

Aug 9:  The Dow lost 2.8%, Nasdaq 2.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.7%.  Separation between groups was 5.9%.

Despite today's ugliness, we did see some winning groups, led by stocks with big gains over the last week...up 1.2%.  Yesterday's big winners continued gaining. 

On the losing side, some of our proprietary indicators predicted losses as high as 4.7%.  Stocks with big yearlong losses continued downward.  Yesterday's big losers were particularly weak.

Looking at ETF's, a number of specialized biotechs (e.g. cardio-related) gained as much as 1.8%.  ETF's specializing in basic materials lost as much as 5%...but again, note that our broader list of yearlong losers was nearly as weak.

The above trends should be considered slightly negative for the next session.  We say "slightly" because we like the fact that volatile stocks did not get singled out for monster losses.  Also, reversals have a habit of occurring on Fridays...whether the general market wins or loses, we wouldn't be surprised to see some changes in the underlying patterns of the recent market (e.g. we could see some nice, if only temporary, gains in stocks with large recent losses).

Aug 8:  The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq 2%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.5%.  Separation between groups was a monstrous 7.8%.

Finally, we saw a reversal in stocks with large longterm losses...big yearlong losers (with losses greater than 43%) gained as much as 7.8%!  Big losers over the last month to quarter were strong as well.  Volatiles fared well. 

We only identified one group that finished with losses...stocks trading well above their 3rd most prominent resistance level were essentially flat.  Yearlong winners failed to impress.  Non-volatiles underperformed.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session were weak.

No industry groups were seen in our tables...the market is being driven by forces that don't relate strongly to particular industries.  Of course, our own methods don't narrow down industries in especially specific ways.  Occasionally, we look to the gains and losses in ETF's to get a feeling for some of the narrow industry trends that our own approach may miss.  Today's strongest ETF is extremely specialized...one that focuses only on biotech operations involved in autoimmune diseases.  This ETF, holding just a handful of companies, gained the same 7.8% as the far more general "stocks with big yearlong losses" group mentioned above.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 7:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 5%.

Stocks with big gains in the previous session led the way today...up 2.8%.  Stocks with large gains over the last week followed closely.  Biotechs finished with gains.

On the losing side, stocks with strongly negative momentum were hit hard...down 2.2%.  Last Friday's losers were particularly weak.  Volatiles suffered.  Cheap stocks failed to gain at all.  Stocks trading well below their prominent resistance levels were hurt.

Ultimately, picking on stocks merely because they are cheap, volatile, or are on a losing streak, is irrational.  At some point, this behavior will reverse, and some very nice profits will be available.  Our best guess is that we may have to wait until October to see these reversals, however.  Historically, bottom fishing has not been a strong strategy in the summer months.

The above trends are neutral for the next session....the general gains are nice, but the profit-taking in volatiles is bothersome.

Aug 6:  The Dow gained 2.2%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 6.7%.

Regional banks topped our list of winners...up 4.1%.  REIT's fared well.  Naturally, then, big dividend payers were also strong.  Market leaders...stocks whose gains or losses seem to presage gains or losses in the market as a whole...were strong.  This is undoubtedly true because the up/down action of banks has been a strong predictor of the next day's market of late.  Interestingly, non-volatiles racked up nice gains...it's rare that we see non-volatiles appear on the winning side of our tables on strongly positive market sessions.

On the negative side,  cheap stocks were pummeled...down 2.6%.  In fact, if you look at the 570 cheapest stocks in our database, there's a net loss on a day when the Dow gained 2.2%!  Stocks with negative book value got beaten up.    Volatiles and small caps lost.  Stocks with large losses over the last month continued to lose.  Stocks with weak recent volume did not impress.

Given the above trends, it would appear that folks are really shifting their money around, with an emphasis on safety.  The above trends are hugely mixed...in the end, they're only slightly positive as indicators of the direction of tomorrow's market.

Aug 3:  The Dow lost 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.5%.  Separation between groups was 4.2%.

As might be expected, stocks with low recent volatility were strongest...down 1.1%.  Biotechs resisted massive losses.  Stocks that have shown strength over the last month continued to do so.

Stocks with large losses over the last month were weakest...down as much as 5.3%!  In fact, losers of just about every shade were victimized....Tuesday's losers, losers over the last week, three months, and one year.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 2:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

REIT's fared well, for the first time in a long while...up 1.8%.  Stocks trading well over resistance levels were strong.  Stocks with heavy volume yesterday gained nicely.  Volatiles outperformed.

Stocks trading well under resistance levels continued dropping...down 1%.  Stocks with a tendency to gain in the afterhours were weak.  Cheap stocks failed to advance.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 1:  The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq .3%.  Our own take on the market actually had it down .1%.  Separation between groups was a big 5.5%. 

Utilities were clearly the strongest group today...up 2%.  Stocks that closed near yesterday's lows fared well. 

The excitement was on the negative side of the market, however.  Here, stocks with big three month losses continued getting beaten up...down 3.6%!  July's big losers followed closely behind.  Volatiles tended to lose big money.  Late July losers and yearlong losers were quite weak.  Cheap stocks suffered.  

The above trends are negative for the next session.

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We have our data for the second half of July.  Our own take on the market had it down a whopping 8.3% over the period.

We didn't identify a single group that actually made money.  Outside of staying entirely out of the market (our advice, actually, in our "trader's portfolio"), the best long strategy was simply to buy non-volatiles, which lost as little as 3.6%.  Healthcare stocks and utilities held up well.  Free agents and small/illiquid stocks outperformed.  Stocks trading over their prime resistance levels beat the market.

Losers were led by stocks with big losses (at least 14%) over the previous month...down a hefty 13.5%.  Stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels were hit hard.  Stocks falling into the "investor services" or "consumer services" categories were quite weak.  Volatiles were victimized.

In both our 2 week and 1 month (below) summaries of the market, it's interesting to note that banks and REIT's showed up in only our "risk-adjusted" tables (as big losers, of course).  Despite all the hoopla about losses in these groups, there may have been market forces that were quietly more potent than the concerns around "subprime borrowing".  Looking at stocks with large losses from the middle of June to the middle of July (the best predictor of July h2 losses), we see a goodly quantity of biotechs, retails, and stocks in the entertainment sector, as well as the expected REIT's, banks, and construction outfits.

****************

We've got our data for the month of July.  Our own take on the market had it down 6.5%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money, though a few nearly broke even.  Stocks that came into the month having strongly outperformed their best trading partner in June lost 1.3%.  Stocks with large gains in June, or over the previous year, held up well.  Semiconductors performed surprisingly well.  Healthcare (not drugs or biotech) fared well.  Large caps and expensive stocks outperformed.

The excitement was on the losing side, of course.  Here, stocks that entered July trading well below their 20 day averages lost an average of 17%.  Naturally, stocks with big June losses followed closely behind.  Stocks with big losses on the last day of June were weak.  Stocks with high recent volatility faltered.

The trend toward continued strength in long term winners is not unusual for this time of year.  Nor is the general malaise in the market.  Assuming that the market evolves in stereotypical fashion, then, one should not expect any amazing reversals in market behavior...those are more likely to arrive in October or November.  The historical data shows that this is not a time for bottom-fishing, though stocks that got hammered at the end of July (as opposed to the full month) might be worth a look.

Jul 31:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Our own take on the market showed a .9% loss...small caps outperformed, interestingly.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Nothing particularly significant emerged on the positive side of our tables, though we did see a couple groups manage gains.  Stocks with a fairly high "leadership" value (a strong tendency to lead the market up or down) gained about .1%.  Stocks with high institutional ownership relative to capitalization avoided losses.  Again, stocks trading above prominent resistance levels outperformed.  3 month winners avoided large losses.

On the negative side, we have stocks trading well below their long-term resistance levels, again...down a big 3.6%.  In fact, losers over every timeline, from yesterday, to a week, a month, a quarter, and a year, were victimized by this market.  Volatiles were hit hard.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  Hopefully, the start of a new month will prove a good junction for a the inevitable reversal.  The data, unfortunately, can't be said to offer any hints that one is forthcoming.

We'll be divvying up the data for the month and half month periods in a few hours.  It should be interesting.

Jul 30:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels fared well today...up as much as 2.1%.  Metals and mining stocks gained nicely, rebounding from weakness last week.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

Stocks with high "perceived risk" lost significantly...down 1.3%.  Volatiles were weak...despite the general gains, folks were hugely cautious.  Stocks with big losses over the last month to three months lost money.

The above trends are mixed for the next session...we like the general gains, but the atmosphere of caution needs to be dispelled.

Jul 27:  The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Stocks trading well under their prominent resistance levels fared best...down .2%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month avoided big losses .  The last few months have been dominated by stocks with long term gains, so we should watch this very recent trend carefully.  Banks outperformed.  Stocks with strong recent volume fared well.

REIT's were hurt...down 3%.  Volatiles tended toward weakness.  Despite the large losses in the general market, we don't have much else to say in terms of losing trends...the entire market was dragged down today, with only a few groups taking particularly large hits.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  Sooner or later, we'll have a reversal that strongly defies our rather mechanical analysis of daily trends...we can accept that.

Given the importance of an accurate picture of the market in these times, we'll probably recrunch the above numbers when we get more stock data (we get data for around 75% of all stocks following the market close, with a more complete feed of data coming a few hours  later).

Jul 26:  The Dow lost 2.3%, Nasdaq 1.8%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.4%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%.

The best any of our stock groups could manage today was a 1.3% loss on the part of stocks with low recent volatility.  Stocks that have held up well, if not spectacularly, over the last week or so, avoided massive losses.  Healthcare-related stocks outperformed.  Non-volatiles in general avoided the massacre.

Stocks with big losses in the last week got burned again today...down a big 3.8%.  Metals and mining stocks were hit hard.  Stocks with large long-term gains tended toward weakness, continuing yesterday's action.

The above trends are normally negative, though we do see cause for optimism regarding the next session.  For one, the biggest losses tend not to follow on the heels of particularly ugly sessions.  Secondly, the next session is a Friday, which often reverses the trends of the last four days.

Jul 25:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .3%.  Our own take on the market had it flat.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Insurance companies fared well...up 1%.  Regional banks managed some nice gains.  Stocks trading well below their prominent resistance levels tended to rise...that's the first time in a while we've seen that sort of behavior, so we'll have to eyeball it closely.

Stocks trading well above their prime resistance levels were weakest...down 1.2%.  Stocks with particularly weak volume over the last couple weeks tended to lose. 

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session's action.

Jul 24:  The Dow lost 1.6%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.4%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Non-volatiles were strongest today, losing only .8%.  Stocks that closed near their highs on Monday held up well.  Biotechs and healthcare stocks avoided huge losses.  Small, illiquid stocks outperformed.

Stocks that had already lost in a big way over the last week were hit hardest...down 3.9%.  Monthlong losers lost big percentages.  Yesterday's losers received an additional beating.  Volatile stocks lost in excess of the market.  Metals, mining, and oil stocks underperformed.

The above trends are negative for the next market session, though we wouldn't expect the next session to be anything as ugly as today's.

Jul 23:  The Dow gained ..7%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .1%, probably because REIT's (which were slaughtered today) represent better than 4% of our selection of stocks.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Despite Nasdaq's weakness, semiconductor stocks fared well...up 1.3%...this result was skewed by several particularly strong performances.  Stocks trading well over their long term resistance levels outperformed. 

REIT's lost 1.8%.  Stocks with longterm losses were hit...again.  At some point this bashing of losers and rewarding of winners has got to reverse, but historical trends tell us that we might well see another couple of months of this activity.  Volatile stocks actually tended toward weakness. 

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

July 20:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

We only saw a couple groups that actually made money today.  The list was led by stocks that have a large number of institutional holders (as a percentage of marketcap).  Small, illiquid stocks actually managed slight gains today.  Cheap stocks and free agents outperformed.  Biotech and healthcare held up well. 

Losers were led by stocks with a strong recent tendency to gain in the afterhours...down 2.4%.  Monthlong losers were hit.  Banks continued their losing streak.  REIT's did not impress either.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 19:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of our tables.  Utilities gained around 1.3%.  Cheap stocks fared well.  Stocks with nice, if not spectacular, long term gains outperformed.  Scientific instrument makers continued their run.

The most volatile stocks were weak...down .3%.  Stocks with particularly low recent volatility tended to lose money as well.  Banks continued to falter.  Stocks with large 3 month losses continued to drop.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of tomorrow's session...the general gains are nice to see, but the uninspiring performance of volatiles is worrisome.

July 18:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Oils were clearly the big winners today...up 1.4%.  Utilities stayed above water.  Stocks that were weak this time last year fared well this time around.  Stocks that outperformed their trading partners in the previous session did so again today.  Yesterday's winners were flat.

Stocks trading well under their most prominent resistance levels were victimized again today...down 1.8%.  One month losers were weak.  Banks were hurt.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though we do take solace in the fact that volatiles weren't represented on the losing side of our tables.

July 17:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq .5%.  Our own take on the market had it down .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks with a large high-close differential in the previous session led the way today, gaining as much as .7%.  Long term winners continued to outperform.  No industries were represented in our list of winning groups.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in yesterday's session dropped as much as 1.7%.  Friday's losers and Monday's winners were hit.  Stocks with large losses over the last month continued downward.

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session's direction.

******************

We've got our data for the first half of the month.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.5%.

Transportation-related stocks were strongest...up about 5%.  Big yearlong winners (with gains of at least 88%) followed closely behind.  3 month winners outperformed.  Expensive stocks were found in the mix as well.  Makers of scientific instruments continued their strong performances over the last couple of months.

On the losing side, banks lost around 2%.  Insurance companies did not impress either.  Stocks with large losses over the last year (at least 35%) finished in negative territory.  Small caps underperformed.

The above trends are fairly typical for July h1, so one might expect July h2 to evolve in stereotyped fashion.  Unfortunately, "typical" means "unpredictable" at this time of year, with a better-than-average possibility of a declining market. 

July 16:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq lost .4%.  Our own take on the market had it down .7%!  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

We only identified one group that finished in positive territory...stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partner last Friday were essentially flat.  Stocks with big gains over the last month to 3 months avoided large losses.  Biotechs outperformed.  Non-volatiles escaped large losses.

Oils dropped 1.8%.  Volatile stocks were hit.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to 3 months continued downwards.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

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Your webmaster had the recent good fortune of buying into a stock that promptly popped 30% on good news.  The next day:  a 10% pullback.  The next day:  an 8% gain.  The 8% spike was followed by a Street.com article purporting that such bouncebacks are bullish signs.  Our curiosity was piqued.

First of all, we examined 13,000 situations over the last year where a stock popped at least 3.5%, and was followed by a loss of 2% or more.  The search was not exhaustive...we let our computer randomly pick.  Our verdict:  there's nothing inherently bullish about these situations, at least from a day-trader's point-of-view.  The average stock gained about .1% after the initial spike and pullback.  In fact, if you ignore afterhours activity (i.e. you measure the gain/loss from open to close, instead of close to close), the average situation actually loses .1% 2 days after the spike.

You can, however, improve on the above .1% gain.  For folks who don't trade in the afterhours, the prime strategy would be simply to look for situations with big losses (at least 7%) in the current afterhours session. These stocks averaged a 2.9% gain. You could also look for stocks that closed well above their lows (at least 11% higher!) on the day of the pullback.  The average stock that meets this requirement gains about 1.7% with decent statistical significance.  A a very large high-close differential (17%+ !) is also a strong predictor of a decent bounce.  Large long-term losses are a bonus, whereas big gains over the last three months would tend to predict a continued pullback.

The above figures are tempting, but they're actually not great improvements on what you might expect regardless of the "spike and pullback" requirement.  There's always a rub!

The results showed no dependency on day-of-week, month-of-year, the size of the initial spike, the % difference between the spike and the pullback, or industry grouping.

Let's get even more specific.  How about the particular situation mentioned in the Street.com...a spike, a pullback, and a bounce?  Here, we required at spike of at least 3.5%, a pullback of at least 2%, and a bounce of at least 2%.  What tends to happen from open to close in the next trading session?  Looking at 1500 stocks over the last 5 years, the average stock tended to gain very slightly (less than .1%).  Again, nothing eye-popping emerged in our analysis.  The usual strategies for large gains in the regular hours appeared.  Buying stocks with a strong tendency to open well below the previous day's close was an especially strong strategy.

In the future, we'll focus on periods greater than a single day.  Our own forays into day-trading have met with mixed success, given the real-world realities of big/ask spreads and opening-minute spikes in stock prices. We have, however, examined the Street.com's advice, and found it questionable at best.

July 13:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was a mere 1.6%.

Construction stocks led the way today...up 1%.  Large caps outperformed.  Stocks whose short term averages are well below their longer term averages fared well. 

Banks were weak again...down .6%.  Semiconductors and software stocks did not impress.  Small caps underperformed.

The above trends are neutral as indicators for the next session.

July 12:  The Dow gained 2.1%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Despite the nice % gains in the general market, we didn't identify any groups that really stood out in terms of outperformance.  Regional banks fared well...up 2.3%.  Stocks with nice, if not massive, 3 month gains were strong.  Metals and mining stocks beat the market.

We didn't identify any groups that lost money.  Stocks with large losses over the last week were essentially flat.  Stocks with weak volume over the last 2 weeks did not impress.  Yearlong losers underperformed. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.  Bear in mind, however, that Friday has a way of reversing trends...we could, for example, see a respite for stocks with large yearlong losses, which have taken a serious beating of late.

July 11:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

The general "momentum" theme of the last few weeks remains intact.  Stocks with nice gains last week gained 1.6%.  Stocks with big gains over the last month to year fared well as well.  Stocks that were weak in this time slot last year reversed. 

Stocks trading well under their 20 day averages lost ground...down 1%.  Cheap, volatile issues lost money.  REIT's were weak.  Three month losers fared poorly as well.

The above trends are neutral for the next session...we don't like to see losses in risky stocks when the general market is rising.

July 10:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.7%...small caps were hit hard.  Separation between groups was a mere 2.3% despite the apparent volatility in the market.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained.  Stocks with large gains over the last 3 months were strongest...down .5%.  Surprisingly, semiconductors held up well.  Yearlong and monthlong winners also fared well.  Free agents outperformed.

Stocks with big losses on Monday tumbled further...down 2.8%.  Banks were hit.  Stocks with large losses over the last year continued downward.

The above trends are only slightly negative for the next session...we're pleased to see that semiconductors actually led the market, and that volatile stocks avoided major losses.

July 9:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Stocks that were weak last week, particularly Thursday, tended to reverse.  Oils outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks trading well below their long term resistance levels tended to lose...down as much as .7%.  Banks were weak.  Small, illiquid stocks failed to move forward.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

July 6:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .35%.  Separation between groups was 1.8%.

Stocks with large losses over the last month or so were strong today...up 1.4%.  Yearlong losers fared well as well.  Construction stocks gained nicely.  Oils outperformed.

On the negative side, small, illiquid stocks tended to lose...down as much as .5%.  Stocks with heavy volume in the last session finished with losses.  No industry groups were seen amongst the losers.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

July 5:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .4%.  Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Entertainment-related stocks fared well...up 1.6%.  Stocks with big 3 month gains continued upwards.  Tuesday's big losers reversed.  REIT's gained nicely.

On the losing side, stocks that closed well above their lows on Tuesday were weak...down as much as .7%.  Cheap stocks did not impress.  Insurance stocks lost. 

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session's direction.

July 3:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .5%.  Separation between groups was 1.9%.

No significant trends developed on either side of our tables.  Stocks with strong June performances tended to gain...up as much as .7%.  Oils were strong.  Biotechs outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with big yearlong losses continued downwards...off 1.2%.  Despite the general positivity in the market, extremely volatile stocks tended to lose money.  Cheap stocks were weak as well.  Stocks that strongly underperformed their best trading partners in June continued to do so.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session's direction...the general gains are nice, but we don't like to see volatiles getting hammered.

June 30:   We've got our data for the second quarter of 2007.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.6%.

Industries dominated the big gainers and losers.  On the positive side, metals and mining stocks were up about 11%, with oils following closely.  Transportation related stocks fared well.  Makers of scientific instruments outperformed.  Stocks with strong performances in the previous 3 years continued to gain nicely.  Those with big gains in the first quarter fared well.

On the negative side, REIT's dropped 6.5%, with all of that (and more) coming in June.  Banks were weak.  Small caps and cheap stocks finished the quarter with small losses.

The above trends don't match up well with historical Q2's, so we'll avoid making projections based on historical patterns.

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We've got our data for June.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.8%.

Electronic instruments and scientific products fared well for the month...up 2.2%.  Hi-tech in general finished with gains.  Stocks with large gains in the prior 3 months outperformed.

On the losing side, REIT's led the way...down nearly 8%.  Not surprisingly, dividend payers in general were weak.  Stocks that finished May with a day of big gains reversed...a common trend. 

The above trends don't match up strongly with any particular historical June, so we'll refrain from predicting July's action based on historical "matching".

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