Oct 1:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1%...small caps were weak.  Separation between groups was 9.4%.

Banking stocks were the clear winners today...up 4.2%.  Stocks that closed well below yesterday's highs fared well.  Yearlong losers outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their highs in the previous session were quite weak...down 5.2%.  The next biggest loser lost a mere 3.6%.  Oils continued to drop.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week reversed.  Yesterday's big winners were particularly weak.

The above trends are slightly negative as indicators of the next session.

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We've got our data for the third quarter.  Despite all the volatility, crises, and losses in the large indices, our own take on the market had it down a mere .3% for the period!  Small caps held up well.

Banking stocks were the clear winners...up 30.5%.  Stocks coming off a weak Q2 (largely banking stocks) prospered. 

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were weakest...down as much as 32%. Oils stocks followed closely.  Stocks with large gains over anywhere from one month to one year tended to reverse direction. 

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We've got our data for the month of September.  Our own take had it down 7.9%...quite a bit less than we had expected.

Despite the large general losses, a few groups managed gains over the month.  Regional banks led the way...up as much as 12.5%.  Stocks with a strong tendency to mirror the behaviors of other stocks (a "follower", as opposed to a "free agent") fared well.

The action, of course, was on the negative side of the market.  One of our proprietary indicators ("big_pslice") predicted losses as high as 20.5%.  Not far behind were oils, followed by metal and mining stocks.  Volatiles and cheap stocks were quite weak.  Stocks with big yearlong gains (largely oils) underperformed the market.

Historically, September has been the weakest month for the market.  Of course, recent economic and political developments tend to wash out seasonal trends, but we shouldn't lose sight of them entirely.  While this September's negativity isn't entirely unexpected, the losses in yearlong winners is.  Stocks with large yearlong gains tend to outperform in September and the third quarter.

Sep 30:  The Dow gained 4.7%, Nasdaq 5.0%.  Our own take on the market had it up a "mere" 3.3%...small caps were relatively weak.  Separation between groups was 15.3%.

Today's trends essentially reversed Monday's.  The strongest stocks were those that have taken large losses over the last week...up as much as 12%.  Yesterday's big losers rebounded.  Volatiles fared well.  Stocks with large losses over the last 1 to 3 months also outperformed the general market.

Despite the big gains in the major indices, there were losers today.  The worst of the lot were stocks that held up well in the previous session...down 3.3%.  Free agents were weak.  Stocks that have strongly outperformed their best "trading partners" tended to finish with losses.

The above trends are positive for the next session.  We must repeat our disclaimer, however:  our prediction scheme tends to break down under extreme conditions.

We'll be analyzing data for the last month and quarter in short order...this should be interesting, so stay tuned.

Sep 29:  The Dow lost 7%, Nasdaq 9.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 6.9%...small caps outperformed.  Separation between groups was 13.6%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  Small, illiquid positions held up best...down 2.1%.  Biotechs were "strong".  Non-volatiles, of course, outperformed.  Stocks with low volume over the last few weeks avoided massive losses.

Stocks that closed well above their lows last Friday were weakest today...down a monstrous 15.7%.  Stocks that have taken large losses over a period of anywhere from one week to three months lost massive percentages.  Volatiles underperformed the market. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.  However, as we've said on several occasions recently, our prediction system breaks down following monstrous extremes in the market.  Obviously, the direction of the next few sessions depends hugely on what emerges from Capitol Hill.

Sep 26:  The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .3%.  Separation between groups was 5.9%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Stocks whose upwards moves tend to predict losses in the general market in the following session (a low "leadership" value) fared well...up as much as 2.3%. Biotechs finished with nice gains.  REIT's also outperformed.  Stocks with moderate gains over the last three months beat the market.

On the negative side, stocks with large losses over the last three months were punished further...down 3.6%.  Stocks with high recent volatility were burned.  Oils and metals and mining stocks were hurt.  Yearlong losers also suffered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  As always, our narrow slant on the market must be mixed with a broader perspective when attempting to make real-life financial decisions...much could change on the political/economic front in the next few days.

Sep 25:  The Dow gained 1.8%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 4%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 2.8%.  Stocks with weak performances over the last month tended to reverse.  In general, though, gains were not strongly focused in any particular group today.

Small, illiquid stocks were weak...down 1.1%.  Those with particularly heavy volume this week tended to lose.  Free agents and cheap stocks failed to impress.  Volatiles were flat.  Scientific devices underperformed.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session...the general gains are nice, but the weakness in volatiles does not inspire.

Sep 24:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.6%.  Quite a discrepancy!  Separation between groups was a sedate 3.8%.

On a day when Nasdaq actually gained, we didn't identify any winning groups.  One of our proprietary indicators ("slice3") predicted a 0% gain/loss in its underlying equities.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Yesterday's big losers tended to hold up well.  Expensive stocks and large-caps outperformed. 

Stocks with big gains over the last week reversed...down as much as 3.8%.  Monthlong gainers were weak as well.  Volatile stocks underperformed the market. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 23:  The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was a mere 4.1%.

Stocks with horrid performances over the last week led the way today...up .3%.  REIT's finished with gains.  Stocks that finished near their lows in the previous session fared well.

On the negative side, stocks that have held up well over the last week reversed...down as much as 3.8%.  Oils were weak.  Metals and mining stocks did not impress.  Stocks with strong performances yesterday reversed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  Again, one positive sign is the fact that volatiles were not singled out for big losses.

Sep 22:  The Dow lost 3.3%, Nasdaq 4.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 4.4%.  Separation between groups was 10.7%.

Stocks held by few institutions (relative to market capitalization) held up best today:  down a mere 1.2%.  Stocks with big losses last week avoided huge losses today.  Small, illiquid stocks fared better than more actively traded issues.  Non-volatiles, of course, outperformed.  Oils and metals and mining issues beat the market.

The weakest stocks were those that have held up well over the last month or so...down a massive 11.9%.  Stocks that were strong last week, especially those that were strong last Friday, reversed in a big way. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.  One hopeful sign:  volatiles weren't included amongst the day's biggest losers.

Sep 19:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 3.4%.  Our own take on the market had it up 4.8%.  Separation between groups was 11.7%.

Insurance companies and brokerages were strongest today...up 12.4%.  Stocks with big losses over the last month were next in line.  Volatiles popped nicely.  Last Monday's big losers fared very well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The worst stocks were simply the least volatile...up as little as .8%.  Retails did not impress.  Biotechs lagged. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 18:  The Dow gained 3.9%, Nasdaq 4.8%.  Our own take on the market had it up a massive 6.9%.  Separation between groups was 18.1%.

Stocks that finished well below their highs in the previous session showed powerful gains today...up 20.1%.  Just in case you think that's an error, check out the following table of stocks with particularly large high/close differentials:

Losers of all varieties, from those that lost yesterday to those with large losses over the last year, reversed course with double digit gains.  Insurance companies bounced back from yesterday's carnage.  Volatile issues were strong.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The weakest of the lot were small, non-liquid issues...up a "mere" 1.9%.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.  However, as we've emphasized in the last few sessions, our prediction scheme breaks down and becomes rather unreliable in the face of the unusual gains and losses of the last few days.   

Sep 17:  The Dow lost 4.1%, Nasdaq 4.9%.  Separation between groups was 5.2%...less than one might expect given the huge losses we saw today.

Not surprisingly, we didn't identify any winning groups today.  Stocks with low recent volatility were about the best "holds" to be had...down 2.8%.  Expensive stocks held up well.  Oddly, semiconductors outperformed the market.  Stocks that have held up well, if not spectacularly, in recent days did so again.

Insurance stocks were weakest...down 8%.  Stocks that had already taken big losses over the last week got banged again.  Yesterday's big winners reversed, while Monday's big losers continued downward.  Yearlong losers suffered.

The above trends are obviously negative for the next session.  As we said regarding Monday's session, however, the simple set of rules we use to predict the next session break down following truly massive losses.  We're dealing with uncharted territory.  Another weak cause for optimism would be the fact that volatiles were not found amongst the day's top losers.

Sep 16:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.3%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.4%!  Separation between groups was 7.4%.

Banks were strongest today...up 6.4%.  Dividend fared particularly well.  Despite all the positivity, weren't many other groups that evinced strongly-focused gains.

Stocks with few institutions holding them (adjusted for market cap) were weakest today...down 1%.  Utilities finished with small losses.  Semiconductors lagged.

The above trends are positive, if not overwhelmingly so, for the next session.

Sep 15:  Apologies for our late update.  For whatever reason, stock data has been flowing in rather slowly for the last week.

The Dow lost 4.4%, Nasdaq 3.6%.  Our own take on the market had it down 4.5%.  Separation between groups was 8.5%.

We didn't identify any groups that came anywhere near finishing with gains.  The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile...down as little as 2.2%.  Biotechs and healthcare issues avoided massive losses.  Stocks that held up well in last Tuesday's negativity tended to repeat the performance. 

Stocks that were heavily punished last Tuesday took another beating today...down a nasty 10.8%!  Oils dropped 9.4%.  Volatile stocks suffered.  Stocks with nice showings last Friday reversed.  Stocks with big losses over the last 3 months were pummeled again.

The above trends are decidedly negative.  Losses in the general market, coupled with especially heavy losses in volatile issues, is always a bad sign.  The tendencies break down a bit, however, when we look at truly extreme losing sessions, and we certainly saw that today...if you're looking for a positive note, there it is.

Sep 12:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Our own take on the market had it up .4%.  Separation between groups was 6.9%.

Oils were strongest today...up 4.2%.  Stocks with high recent volatility gained nicely.  Monday and Tuesday's big losers reversed, while Wednesday's big winners continued upwards. 

A number of normally dowdy industries...footwear, restaurants, alcoholic beverages...showed significant losses.  As a whole, they dropped as much as 2.8%.  Insurance companies were weak.  Stocks with strong recent gains tended to reverse.  Semiconductors finished the session with losses.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 11:  The Dow gained 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Our own take on the market had it up a mere .3%...small caps were weak.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Large caps were strongest...up as much as 2.6%.  Utilities fared well.  Expensive stocks managed nice gains.

On the negative side, volatiles were weakest...down 1.3%.  This, despite the fact that the tech-heavy Nasdaq index performed strongly.  Cheap stocks underperformed.  Stocks with big losses on Wednesday came back for an encore.  Yearlong losers finished in negative territory.

The above trends are mixed as predictors of the next session.  The weakness in volatiles is bothersome, but the general market gains are cause for optimism.  Yet another complication is the fact that Fridays are more unpredictable than other days of the weak.

Sep 9:  The Dow lost 2.4%, Nasdaq 2.6%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.5%.  Separation between groups was 7.6%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained in this session.  Non-volatiles held up best, with losses as low as .9%.  Healthcare avoided huge losses.  Retails and heavy industry outperformed the market.  The smallest of small caps fared well.

Oils took the heaviest hits...down a huge 8.5%.  Stocks that had already taken large recent losses were beaten up yet again.  Volatile stocks were hammered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Sep 8:  The Dow gained 2.6%, Nasdaq .6%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.1%.  Separation between groups was a big 8.2%.

Stocks with high book values relative to stock price were strongest today...up 5.3%.  This group, of course, includes many banks and REIT's, which performed strongly.  Stocks with big gains over the last month or so fared well.

On the negative side, last Tuesday's big losers were hit again...down 2.9%.  Oils suffered.  Particularly volatile equities tended to lose.  Stocks with big losses over the last 3 months continued to lose.

The above trends are mixed as predictors of the next session...the general gains are nice, but the losses in volatile stocks are troubling.

Sep 5:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with big losses in the previous session were strongest today...up 2.6%.  Volatiles fared well.  Banks were strong.  Stocks with big losses over the last 3 months outperformed.

On the negative side, little of significance manifested.  Utilities, which held up well in the previous session, lost around .8%.  Stocks with weak volume yesterday tended to lose money today.

The above trends are positive as indicators of the next session.

Sep 4:  The Dow lost 3%, Nasdaq 3.2%.  Separation between groups was a mere 3.6%...stocks moved in tandem today.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today.  The smallest of small caps lost 1.0%...perhaps these stocks were simply ignored and will be singled out for more damage in the next session.  Utilities held up well.  Not surprisingly, so did non-volatiles.

Electronic devices and instruments were hit again today...down 4.6%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week to month took hits, as did stocks with large yearlong losses.  Volatile stocks suffered.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  The good news is that Friday often reverses Thursday's trends.

Sep 3:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .7%.  Our own take on the market had it up .6%.  Separation between groups was 5.8%.

Stocks with big gains over the last week were strongest today...up 3.4%.  Meanwhile, stocks with big losses over the last year also showed strength.  Banks fared well. 

Losing stocks simply reversed the trends of the winning stocks...those with big losses over the last week dropped as much as 2.5%.  Yearlong gainers were weak.  Semiconductors and other tech stocks tended to drop, explaining Nasdaq's weakness.  Oils did not impress.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Sep 2:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .8%.  Our own take on the market had it down .1%.  Separation between groups was 7.9%.

Stocks with big gains last Thursday repeated the performance today...up 2.2%.  Retails and banks were strong.  Naturally, then, stocks with large yearlong losses tended to gain.

Oils were by far the biggest losers...down 5.7%.  Last Thursday's losers lost again.  Stocks with a strong recent tendency to gain in the afterhours were weak.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Aug 30 (Sat):  We've got our data for the month of August.  Our own take on the market had it up a healthy 3.7%.

Stocks that finished July with short-term averages well below longer term averages were strongest...up 13.1%.  Volatiles were quite strong.  Losers on scales of anywhere from one week to one year tended to reverse course.  After risk-adjustment, retails showed strength.

On the negative side, stocks with big yearlong gains lost as much as 2%.  Expensive stocks went nowhere.

Aug 29:  The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.8%.  Our own take on the market had it down a mere .9%.  Separation between groups was a relatively narrow 3.1%.

Stocks with big yearlong losses were strongest today...up 1.4%.  Those with a recent tendency to close well off their highs fared well.  Extreme small caps and cheap stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Moderate small caps were weak...down as much as 1.7%.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partners in the previous session reversed.

The above trends are mixed as predictors of the next session...the general losses are disparaging, but the strength in losers and risky positions gives reason for optimism.

Aug 28:  The Dow gained 1.8%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.1%.  Separation between groups was 5.5%.

Stocks with high recent volatility prospered...up 4.7%.  Yearlong losers reclaimed a small chunk of their losses.  Banks were strong. 

On the negative side, oils lost around .7%.  Last Friday's big losers lost yet again.  Despite the strength of the Dow, non-volatiles and expensive stocks tended to underperform. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 27:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 4.7%. 

Stocks with large losses over the last 3 months were strongest...up 2.8%.  Volatiles were strong.  Monday's big losers reversed.  Oils fared well.

On the negative side, biotechs were clearly the big losers...down 1.9%.  The next closest group, cheap stocks, lost a mere .7%. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 26:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Our own take on the market had it up .5%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Oils were clearly the big winners today...up 2.6%.  Yesterday's big losers reversed.  Friday's big losers fared well as well. 

On the negative side, stocks that finished well above their lows in the previous session lost around .9%.  Heavy industry and transports tended toward weakness.  Stocks that were strong this time last year were weak this time around.  Volatiles underperformed the market.

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session's direction.

Aug 25:  The Dow lost 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.0%.  Separation between groups was 4%.

We only identified one group that finished the session with gains...stocks with a high "perceived risk" gained .1%.  That's a rather odd result...cheap, volatile stocks normally suffer when the market does.  Stocks with large yearlong gains held up well.

On the negative side, stocks that closed Friday well above their lows were weakest...down 3.9%.  Banks were hit. 

The above trends are negative for the next session, though the gains in volatiles are a promising sign.

Aug 22:  The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Separation between groups was 6%.

Stocks with a series of recent losses were strongest today...up as much as 3.7%.  REIT's fared well.  Volatile stocks outperformed the market.

On the negative side, stocks with a string of big gains were weakest...down as much as 2.3%.  Oils finished with losses. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 21:  The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .4%.  Our own take on the market had it down .6%.  Separation between groups was 3.8%.

Stocks with big gains on Tuesday led the way today...up 1.3%.  Oils were strong.  Expensive stocks and large caps outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with big yearlong losses lost again...down 2.5%.  Weeklong losers did not impress either.  Banks were punished.  Small caps and cheap stocks were punished.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Aug 20:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 4.2%.

Stocks with big gains yesterday repeated the performance...up 3.2%.  Oils fared well.  Stocks with large losses over the last month tended to prosper.

Losers were led by cheap stocks...down as much as 1%.  Stocks with a tendency to lose in this time slot repeated the performance.  Banks and transports were weak.  Stocks with weak volume in the previous session finished with losses.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Aug 19:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  We had the market down 1.7%.  Separation between groups was 6.5%.

Stocks that have large losses over the last few weeks relative to their best trading partners were strongest today...up 2.5%.  The trend was very significant.  Oils fared well.  Stocks with big gains last Wednesday gained nicely.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

Losers were led by last Wednesday's big losers...down a big 4.1%.  Volatile stocks did not impress.  Stocks with big losses over the last year or big gains in the last month fared poorly...this describes banks well, yet banks did not appear in our "top 10 losers" list.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 18:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with slightly lower than average market capitalization were strongest today...up as much as .5%.  Intuitively, one suspects that such a result is insignificant, and the statistics bear this out.  Cheap stocks tended to finish with gains.  Utilities finished above water.  Non-volatiles held up well.

On the negative side, brokerages lost 3%.  Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last year tended to continue slumping.  Stocks that were strong this time last year were weak this time around.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 15:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 4%.

Stocks with a strong tendency to open higher over the last month were strong today...up 2.1%.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week fared well.  Those with big losses over the last year continued their recent reversal.  Retails outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners were featured...down 2%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains were weak, followed again by oils. 

The above trends are neutral as predictors of the next session.

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We've got our data for the first half of August.  Our own take on the market had it up a nice 5.8%.

Volatile stocks led all gainers...up as much as 13.5%.  Stocks with big, if not extreme, losses over the last quarter to year fared well.

On the losing side, a couple of our proprietary indicators predicted losses on the order of 4.7%.  Outside those, stocks with large yearlong gains faltered.  Oils followed, not surprisingly, though it's interesting that the group of yearlong gainers had larger losses than oils themselves...-1.7% vs. -1.0%.  Expensive stocks and large-caps tended toward weakness.

Aug 14:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1%.  Separation between groups was 5.1%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 4.2%.  Yearlong losers fared well.  Volatiles outperformed. 

On the losing side, oils led the way...down .9%.  Utilities were weak.  Stocks with big gains in the previous session tended to reverse. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 13:  The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it up .1%.  Separation between groups was 8%.

Today's trends strongly resembled yesterday's.  The biggest gainers were those that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners over the last month...up a big 5.1%.  The trend was highly significant.  Oils were strong.  Monthlong losers and yearlong gainers fared well...not surprising given the strength in oils.

On the losing side, stocks with big monthlong gains were weak...down 2.9%.  Banks retreated from yesterday's gains.  Retails suffered. 

The above trends are neutral as predictors of tomorrow's market direction.

Aug 12:  The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq .4%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners over the last month were strong today...up .8%.  Oils gained.  Yesterday's losers reversed.

On the losing side, brokerages were weakest...down 3.1%.  Banks followed closely.  REIT's were weak as well.  Stocks with big losses last Thursday lost again.

Once again, profits were available by betting on reversals.  The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Aug 11:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  We had the market up 2%.  Separation between groups was 5.5%.

Banks were strongest today by a significant margin...up 4.8%.  Next in line were Friday's big winners...up another 4.2%.  Volatiles outperformed.  Stocks with big gains over the last month continued upwards.

On the losing side, stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partner over the last month lost .7%.  Metals and mining stocks did not impress.  Yearlong winners underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 8:  The Dow gained 2.5%, Nasdaq 2.6%.  We had the market up 3.3%.  Separation between groups was 7.2%.

Stocks that closed yesterday's session well below their highs were strongest today...up as much as 5.7%.  Yesterday's losers reversed...betting on reversals has been a great way to make money over the last 6 weeks or so.   Retails impressed.

Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners over the last month were weakest today...down 1.6%.  The effect was quite significant (4.7 standard deviation units off the mean!).  The next biggest loser, oils, lost a mere .8%.  Given the losses in oils, it's not surprising to see weakness in both stocks with large yearlong gains and/or large monthlong losses.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 7:  The Dow lost 1.9 %, Nasdaq 1%.  We had the market down 2%.  Separation between groups was 4.5%.

Only a couple of groups actually gained today.  These gains were not statistically significant (i.e. if you randomly sorted the gains and losses of 2,000+ stocks into 1,000 groups, as we do, you'd expect to find a couple winners).  Healthcare stocks held up well.  Stocks with large losses over the last month avoided major losses today.  Utilities and semiconductors outperformed the market.

Stocks with big gains last Tuesday were weakest today...down 4.4%.  Biotechs floundered.  Brokerages were hit hard. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 6:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Separation between groups was 4.1%.

Stocks that have taken a beating over the last few days were strongest today...up 3.2%.  Oils rebounded from some recent losses.  Monday's big losers fared well.

Stocks with weak recent volume tended to lose...down as much as 1%.  Brokerages lost about the same.  Despite Nasdaq's gains, small caps were weak.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Aug 5:  The Dow gained 2.9%, Nasdaq 2.8%.  Separation between groups was 4.8%...quite a bit less than one would expect given recent trends and the big gains in today's market.  It seems that stocks moved in herd like fashion.

Retails were strongest today...up 5%.  Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last year fared well.  Volatile stocks outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually finished the session with losses.  Oils were weakest...up a mere .2%.  Cheap stocks and small caps did not impress.  Given the weakness in oils, it's not surprising that stocks with big yearlong gains lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Aug 4:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  We had the market down 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 6.1%. 

Only a few groups finished with gains today.  Healthcare stocks topped the list...up .2%.  Non-volatiles finished above water.  Insurance companies held up well.

Oils got hammered...down 5.9%.  Most of the other big losers were a consequence of the action in oils...yearlong gainers, last Tuesday's big losers, last Wednesday's winners, and last month's big losers, all were burnt.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Aug 1:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  We actually had the general market up .2%.  Separation between groups was 5%.

Stocks trading well below their longterm resistance levels were strongest today...up 2.9%.  Volatile stocks outperformed.  Banks fared well.  Last Tuesday's big gainers gained again.

On the negative side, metals and mining stocks lost 2%...by far the weakest stocks of the session.  Utilities did not impress.  Non-volatiles underperformed...a rather odd result on a day when the Dow and Nasdaq finished in negative territory.  Expensive stocks were weak.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

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We've got our data for the month of July.  Our take on the market had it up 3.3%...rather impressive given the losses in the first half of the month.

The strongest stocks were stocks that took a beating in June...up as much as 15.5%.  Banks followed closely.  Volatiles fared well.  Stocks with longterm losses outperformed the market.

On the losing side we have oils...down 15%.  Given the strong longterm performance of oils, it's not surprising to see yearlong winners suffer.  June's big winners reversed.

July 31:  The Dow lost 1.8%, Nasdaq .2%.  Our own take on the market had it down .8%.  Separation between groups was 4.9%.

Biotechs were strongest today...up 1.2%.  Stocks with big losses over the last 3 months followed.  As one might infer from the horrid performance of the Dow vs. Nasdaq, small-caps outperformed.

Stocks with big gains yesterday reversed...down 3.7%.  Oils lost 3.1%.  Given the losses in oils, it's not surprising that yearlong winners were weak.  Large caps and expensive stocks underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

July 30:  The Dow gained 1.6%, Nasdaq .4%.  We had the market up .6%.  Separation between groups was 7.2%.

Oils were easily the strongest group today...up 5.6%.  Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners over the last month fared well.  Metals and mining interests jumped.  Stocks with big losses yesterday (largely oils) reversed.

Losers were led by stocks with a high value for one of our proprietary indicators ("vstdev")...down 1.6%.  Stocks with big losses last Thursday lost again.  Volatiles underperformed...a slightly ominous sign.  Banks and REIT's did not impress.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.  This topsy turvy market has offered big opportunities for folks who bet on short-term reversals.  It'll be interesting to see how much longer this behavior continues.

July 29:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 2.4%.  We had the market up 2.9%.  Separation between groups was 9.1%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 7.8%.  Last Thursday's big losers were today's big winners.  Volatiles were strong.  Banks round out the list of outperformers.

On the negative side, only one group finished the day with losses...oils dropped 1.3%.  Biotechs underperformed the market.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.  The topsy-turvy nature of the market of late, and the fact that the current market is hugely driven by fluctuations in the price of oil, has meant that our daily predictions have been less than impressive in the last few weeks.

July 28:  The Dow lost 2.1%, Nasdaq 2%.  Separation between groups was 5.2%.

Again, one of our proprietary indicators "led the way today, with losses of a mere .1%.  Oils and utilities held up well in this negative environment, but still finished with small losses.  Non-volatiles outperformed.  Stocks with large losses last Tuesday avoided big losses.

Stocks with large losses last Thursday were weakest...down a big 5.3%.  Stocks with big gains last Tuesday were also weak.  Brokerages were hit hard.  Volatile stocks underperformed the market.  Stocks with large losses over the last three months continued losing in a big way.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 25:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was a mellow 3.7%.

Stocks with a high value for one of our proprietary indicators ("ptotal") led the way today...up 3.1%.  Stocks with big losses over the last month fared well.  Monday's big gainers continued upwards.  Stocks with large longterm gains outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks whose short term averages fall well below longer term averages were weakest...down .7%.  Volatiles lost.  Non-volatiles also lagged the market.  Banks underperformed.

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session.

July 24:  The Dow lost 2%, Nasdaq 2.4%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.7%.  Separation between groups was 8.7%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money.  The strongest stocks were indicated by one of our proprietary indicators (-.1%), followed by biotechs (-.4%).  Surprisingly, semiconductors held up well.  Non-volatiles, of course, outperformed the market. 

Stocks with high recent volatility were hammered...down 8.8%.  Stocks with big recent gains reversed.  Longterm losers were weak. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 23:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was huge yet again...10%.

Volatile stocks were strongest today...up 5.8%.  Again, stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels showed strength.  Last Thursday's big winners won again.  Stocks with big losses over the last three months to one year fared well.

On the negative side, oils were hit again...down 4.1%.  Stocks with big losses yesterday repeated the performance.  Yearlong winners took a step back.

The above trends are positive for the next session. 

July 22:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Our own take on the market had it up a big 3%!  Separation between groups was 10.5%.

Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels showed gains as high as 8.1%.  Last Wednesday's big winners repeated the performance.  Volatiles prospered.  3 month losers gained nicely.

On the losing side, stocks with big yearlong gains led the way...down 2.4%.  Oils followed at 2.3%.  Last Wednesday's and/or Thursday big losers repeated.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 21:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it up .5%.  Separation between groups was 5.6%.

Stocks with big losses last Thursday were strongest today...up 4.4%.  Oils were strong (3.8%).  Given the gains in oils, it's not surprising that stocks with big yearlong gains also fared well. 

Retails were weakest today...down 1.2%.  Brokerages lost.  Stocks that showed strength last week tended to finish with losses.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

July 18:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq lost 1.3%.  Our own take on the market had it down .4%.  Separation between groups was a relatively mild 3.8%.

Stocks with extreme yearlong losses (greater than 75%)  led the way today...up 1.4%.  Expensive stocks outperformed.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session finished on the positive side of the ledger.

On the negative side, retails lost 2.4%.  Volatiles retreated a tad (-2%) from their recent massive gains.  Stocks that were weak this time last year repeated the performance.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

July 17:  The Dow gained 1.8%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.3%.  Separation between groups was again monstrous...14.1%!

Stocks trading well below longterm resistance levels led the way today...up as much as 11%.  Volatiles followed at around 10.7%.  Volatiles have gained 24% in the last two days!  Banks were strong.  Last Monday's big losers fared well.

On the negative side, stocks with big yearlong gains dropped as much as 3.1%.  Oils came in with losses of 2.8%.  Yesterday's big losers continued losing. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 16:  The Dow gained 2.5%, Nasdaq 3.1%.  Our own take on the market had it up 4.2%!  Separation between groups was a massive 13.5%.

Volatile stocks led the way today.  Ranked in terms of volatility, the top 4% gained a spectacular 13%!  Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session followed at 12.4%.  Stocks with a series of recent losses fared well.  Longterm losers also gained nicely.  Banks charged forward. 

Only a few groups finished the day with losses.  Oils led the list...down .5%.  Utilities were weak.  Given the losses in oils, it's not surprising that yearlong winners suffered.  Non-volatiles and expensive stocks lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

****************

We've got our data for the first half of July.  Our own take on the market has it down 5.7% over the period...rather ugly, especially when you consider the 10%+ losses we saw in June.

Biotechs were the only group that finished above water...up about .1%.  Health care companies followed.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Stocks that have had decent, if not spectacular, performances over the last year outperformed the general market.

The action was on the losing side of the market.  Stocks trading well under longterm resistance levels were hammered...down as much as 18%.  Yearlong losers, which strongly overlap with the aforementioned group, continued to lose large quantities of money.  Volatiles were hurt.  Interestingly, banks did not qualify for our "top 10" list of losers.  Are yearlong losers getting hit hard because a large percentage of them are banks?  Or...are banks getting hit hard because the market is in a mood to punish yearlong losers?  Our own scan of the market suggests that investors may wish to give at least a tad of credence to the latter hypothesis.  If true, it would seem that, to some extent, losses in banks may be being exaggerated by trends that have little to do with the fundamental health of the banking industry in general.

Unfortunately, the above trends are typical for this time of year.  If the market evolves normally, we shouldn't expect any dramatic turnarounds in the next few weeks.

July 15:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .6%.  Separation between groups was 4.2%.

Biotechs fared well today...up 1.1%.  Stocks with a 3 year history of strength in this time slot outperformed.  On the whole, however, gains were not focused on particular groups today.

On the negative side, volatile stocks continued to suffer despite the apparent strength in the Nasdaq index...down as much as 2.9%.  Oils dropped, dragging stocks with big yearlong gains along for the ride.  Large caps underperformed.   Stocks with big gains over the last few days tended to reverse.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 14:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 7.5%.

Stocks with big yearlong gains were strongest today...up .7%.  Oils followed closely behind.  Expensive stocks avoided big losses.

The losing side was where the action was.  Banks led the way...down 6.8%.  Stocks with big yearlong losses, then, continued to suffer.  Volatile stocks were hit hard.  Last Tuesday's big winners got walloped. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 11:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq .8%.  Our own take on the market had it down a mere .1%...small caps outperformed.  Separation between groups was 6%.

Stocks with big gains in the previous session continued upwards to the tune of 1.8%.  Since oils and yearlong gainers were strong in the previous session, it's not surprising to see them appear in today's list of winners. 

Stocks trading well below resistance levels were again victimized...down as much as 4.2%.  In fact, losers on a scale of anywhere from a week to a year were punished in excess.  Volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

July 10:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1%.  Our own take on the market had it up .4%.  Separation between groups was 6.7%.

Oils led the way today...up 3.3%.  Naturally then, stocks with big yearlong gains tended to outperform. 

On the negative side, stocks with large yearlong losses lost 3.4%.  Retails did not impress.  Stocks that have strongly lagged behind their best trading partners tended toward losses.  Volatile stocks underperformed the market.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session.  On one hand, the general gains are nice to see.  On the other, we take the losses in volatiles as an ominous sign.

July 9:  The Dow lost 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.6%.  We had the market down 2.9%.  Separation between groups was 8.8%.

Only a couple groups finished with gains today.  Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session gained about .3%.  Utilities broke even.  Non-volatiles held up well, of course.  Biotechs avoided huge losses.

On the losing side, stocks with big gains in the previous sessions reversed in dramatic fashion...down 8.2%.  REIT's were hurt badly.  Stocks with big losses over the last month to year suffered. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 8:  The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Our own take on the market had it up a massive 3.7%!  Separation between groups was 10.5%!

Stocks trading well below their 100 day averages led our list of winners...up 9.3%.  Stocks with large losses over the course of a month to a year fared well.  Banks gained nicely.  Volatiles prospered. 

We identified only one losing group...oils dropped 1.2%.  Naturally, then, stocks with big yearlong gains fared poorly.  Expensive stocks underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

July 7:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.4%!  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

A number of industries in the "miscellaneous fabricated products" group finished with gains today...up as much as .2%.  Retails avoided major losses.  Semiconductors held up well. 

On the losing side, stocks with big losses over the last three months continued to drop...down as much as 3.7%.  Not surprisingly, banks were in the mix, with 3.3% losses.  Volatile stocks underperformed.

The above trends are negative as predictors of the next session.

July 3:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq lost .3%.  Our own take on the market had it down .6%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Stocks with negative p/e ratios led the way today, gaining as much as .6%.  Retails fared well.  Biotechs finished above water. 

On the negative side, oils had a second day of losses...down 2.5%.  Banks followed closely.   Given the losses in oils, it's not surprising that stocks with big gains over the course of a month to a year were also weak. 

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

July 2:  The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  We had the market down 2.5%.  Separation between groups was a big 7.2%.

Biotechs were the only group that finished in positive territory...up .6%.  Yesterday's big losers resisted huge losses.  Non-volatiles, naturally, held up relatively well.  Micro-caps outperformed.  Stocks with heavy volume yesterday beat the market.

In the negative column, metals and mining stocks took a serious bashing...down 6.5%!  These stocks have fared well over the last 6 months or so, so it's not surprising that yearlong winners also took big hits.  Transportation-related stocks suffered. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

July 1:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .5%.  Our own take on the market had it down .1%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Banks, last quarter's big loser, were strong today...up 1.5%.  Otherwise, the positive side of the market showed little focus.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session reversed...down as much as 2.8%.  Volatiles were hurt.  Despite the strength in banks, stocks with huge yearlong losses continued to get hurt.  Small caps and cheap stocks lost the brief momentum they had yesterday.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

****************

We've got our data for the second quarter.  We have the market down about 3.3% over the period...not so bad if you ignore June's horrid performance (below).

Predictably, oils were the strongest group...up a monstrous 30.5%!  Stocks that finished the first quarter with a series of gains were strong.  Yearlong winners, of course, fared well.  Metals and mining stocks shouldn't be ignored either.

On the negative side, we have banks...down a horrid 28.2%.  Stocks that finished the first quarter with a series of big losses were extremely weak.

*******

We've got our data for June.  Our own take on the market had it down a big 10.8% for the month.

Oils topped our list of groups that actually gained over the period...up 5.7%.  Stocks with big yearlong gains and stocks trading well over long-term resistance levels fared well.  Many of these stocks, of course, are oils.  Stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partners in May continued to prosper.

On the losing side, where most stocks landed, stocks with big losses in May continued suffering in a rather extreme way...down as much as 25.7%!  Not too far behind were banks.  Stocks with big quarterly or yearly losses (largely banks) continued to suffer.  Stocks with a strong tendency to rack up gains in the afterhours fared poorly.

The trends toward continued gains in yearlong winners and losses in yearlong losers are fairly typical for the month of June.  Assuming things unfold in standard fashion, then, one shouldn't not expect any dramatic reversals in July.  More than likely, we'll see more of the same.

June 30:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost 1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.1%.  Separation between groups was a big 5.6%.

Cheap stocks were clearly the strongest stocks today...up 1.8%.  Extreme small caps fared well.  Oils gained.

On the negative side, banks lost a big 3.8% to finish out the first half of the year.   Moderately small cap issues fell. 

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session's direction.

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