Jan 1:   We've got our data for the month of December.  Our own take on the market had it down 1.5%.

Oils were clearly the strongest stocks this month...up 6.8%.  Nearly 2% behind, we have stocks trading well over their long term resistance levels.  Stocks trading well under their long term resistance levels also tended to outperform.  Stocks with strong December performances in the previous three years didn't break habit.

On the losing side, stocks with a strong tendency to close near their highs lost as much as 7%.  Stocks in the entertainment industry were weak.  Stocks with strong end-of-November momentum reversed.  Banks extended their yearlong woes.

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We've got our data for Q4 2007.  Our own take on the market had it down 7.5%.

Utilities were strongest...up 3.7%.  Stocks that stepped into the quarter with big gains over the previous 12 months continued to move upwards.  Stocks with big Q3 and/or September gains outperformed as well.  Stocks that came into the quarter having strongly outperformed their best trading partners in the month of September were strong. 

On the losing side, stocks that entered the quarter trading well below their prime resistance levels were hit hard...down as much as 18.5%!  Stocks with big losses in the last week of September lost large %'s.  Banking stocks were weak, particularly after risk-adjustment.

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We've got our data for 2007.  Our own take on the market had it down 6.9%.  The Dow gained 6.4%, and Nasdaq 8.9%.  The Russell 3000, from which our stocks are drawn, gained 3.3%.  The discrepancy between our read of the market and the Russell 3000's is explained by the fact that we don't weight stocks according to capitalization.  Obviously then, 2007 was a year where large caps generally outperformed small caps.

The market was led by metal and mining stocks...up 19.5%, far ahead of the second-place group.  These gains were particularly strong after risk-adjustment.  Utilities fared well.  Stocks in the "electronic instruments" category outperformed.  Stocks with a three year history (2004-2006) of gains continued to move upwards. 

On the negative side, it's no surprise that banks were weakest...down 29.7%.  REIT's floundered.  Given the losses in these groups, dividend-paying stocks in general were weak.  Non-volatile stocks underperformed the general market.  Stocks that had taken a hit in the previous 3 years continued to do so.

Dec 31:  The Dow and Nasdaq lost .8% on the last trading session of the year.  Our own take on the market had it down .4%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were strongest today...up 1.4%.  Stocks with big losses on Friday rebounded today.  Stocks with yearlong losses tended to gain today.  Small caps outperformed.

On the losing side, stocks with strong overall December performances lost 1.6%.  Last Friday's big gainers reversed. 

The above trends are ordinarily slightly negative for the next session.  However, beginning of the year considerations will probably dominate the next few sessions.  Historically, the first few sessions of January have been strongly positive.

We've got a lot of work ahead of us in the next day or so...stay tuned for our look at 2007, the 4th quarter, December, and more.

Dec 28:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .4%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Stocks with big volume yesterday were strongest today...up .8%.  Stocks with gains of 20-40% over the year fared well. 

On the losing side, stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were burned...down 2.2%.  Stocks with large longterm losses were hit again.  Volatiles were weak.  Banks suffered. 

Ordinarily, the above trends are negative for the next session.  End-of-the-year dynamics, of course, will likely overwhelm the usual tendencies.

Dec 27:  The Dow lost 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.5%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that gained today.  Stocks with low recent volatility were strongest, losing a mere .8%.  Utilities and oils held up well.  Large caps outperformed. 

Stocks that have made a recent habit of closing near their highs reversed...down 4.7%.  Stocks with big recent gains reversed.  Volatiles were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 26:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained .4%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs on Dec 24 were strongest today...up as much as 1.9%.  Stocks trading well above resistance levels continued to prosper. 

On the negative side, REIT's reversed Monday's big gains...down 1.3%.  Retails were weak. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Dec 24:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .8%.  Separation between groups was 3.7%.

REIT's were by far the strongest group...up 2.9%.  Last Friday's big losers reversed.  Stocks with large yearlong losses tended to outperform. 

Stocks with heavy institutional ownership (relative to market cap) were weak...down .9%.  Friday's big gainers were weak.  Cheap stocks underperformed.  Biotechs did not impress.  Volatiles lagged.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Dec 21:  The Dow gained 1.6%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 5.8%.

Stocks with big yearlong losses were strongest...up a big 4.9%.  Brokerages were strong.  Volatile stocks outperformed.  Tuesday's big gainers repeated the big gains. 

On the losing side, free agents lost as much as .9%.  Biotechs and pharmas did not impress.  Stocks with big gains over the last three months underperformed the market.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 20:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Midcaps were strongest today...up as much as 2.1%.  Semiconductors fared well, explaining Nasdaq's superior performance.  Stocks trading well over resistance levels gained nicely.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session reversed...down .5%.  Free agents lost ground.  Monday's and Wednesday's big gainers did not impress, nor did Tuesday's big losers.  Despite the gains in semiconductors, volatiles tended toward weakness.

The above trends are just slightly positive for the next session...we'd like to see more life out of the volatiles.

Dec 19:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq gained .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Volatile stocks were strongest today...up 1.5%.  Stocks that have taken a beating over the last week reversed nicely.  Cheap stocks outperformed.

A number of low-tech manufacturers were weak...down 1.4%.  Stocks with large, if not massive, yearlong losses did not impress.  Retails underperformed. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 18:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .9%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 4%.

Gainers were led by stocks with a high value for one of our proprietary indicators ("ptotal")...up 3.6%.  Banks were strong.  Moderately small cap stocks fared well.

Free agents were weakest...down .5%.  The absolute smallest of small caps were weak.  Large caps tended to lag as well.  Cheap stocks did not impress.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 17:  The Dow lost 1.3%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  Retails were strongest, losing a mere .6%.  Insurance companies held up well.  Non-volatiles held up well.

Stocks with big yearlong gains were weakest today...down 3.3%.  Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were hit hard.  Cheap stocks and volatiles round out the list of big losers.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 15 (Sat):  We've got our data for the first half of the month of December.  The general market lost about 2%.

Stocks trading well above resistance levels were strongest over the last two weeks...up as much as 3.2%.  Stocks trading well below resistance levels, however, also gained nicely.  Oils outperformed. 

On the negative side, a proprietary indicator predicted losses as high as 6.1%.  Banks and insurance operations were quite weak.  Stocks with big gains on the last trading day of November reversed. 

Dec 14:  The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Our own take on the market had it losing 2%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses today.  The best performing group was composed of stocks with large yearlong gains...down .6%.  Three month winners and stocks trading well above resistance levels were also strong, as might be expected.

Stocks with big gains on Monday tended to reverse, with average losses of 3.6%.  Tuesday's big losers continued to lose.  Volatiles were hurt.  Banks underperformed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 13:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .4%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Utilities were strongest today...up about 1%.  Non-volatiles fared well.  Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels outperformed.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Last Friday's big gainers reversed...down 1.8%.  Volatiles tended to lose money.  Stocks trading well under resistance levels finished in negative territory.  Monday's big gainers underperformed. 

The above trends are negative for the next session, though Fridays have a way of reversing the trends of the previous 4 days..

Dec 12:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was 3.8%.

Oils were strongest today...up 2.5%.  Monday's big losers fared well.

Our proprietary indicators predicted losses as high as 1.4%.  Outside of them, banks were quite weak.  Monday's big winners did not impress today.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Dec 11:  The Dow lost 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.4%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.1%.  Separation between groups was 6%.

We didn't identify any groups that escaped losses.  About the best one could do was to hold small, illiquid stocks...down .7%.  Free agents fared well.  Non-volatiles resisted large losses.  Semiconductors held up surprisingly well.  Cheap stocks avoided large reversals of recent upward behavior. 

On the losing side, last Thursday's big gainers were hit hard...down 6.7%!  Yesterday's big gainers were weak as well.  Stocks with big gains over the last week tended to reverse.  Construction stocks were damaged.

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Dec 10:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .5%.  Our own take on the market had it up .9%.  Separation between groups was 6.2%.

Stocks trading well below longterm resistance levels showed big gains today...up as much as 5.2%.  Volatiles prospered.  Stocks with big gains last week continued upwards. 

One of our proprietary indicators predicted losses as great as 1%, though the significance of the result wasn't impressive.  Stocks with strong, if not spectacular, yearlong performances were weak. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 7:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .1%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Stocks with large long-term losses continued to gain nicely...up as much as 2.7%.  Volatiles and cheap stocks also tended to outperform the general market.

Stocks with a recent tendency to close near their highs were weakest today...down 1.1%.  Banks were weak. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 6:  The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 8%.

Stocks with short term averages well below longer term averages gained as much as 8.2%.  The effect was so strong that we double checked our data for reverse splits and the like.  No errors...take a look at stocks like spf, wci, tgic, cfc, mnta, kkd, and fle.  Stocks with large long term losses of just about every variety, in fact, fared well.  Volatiles were strong.  Last Friday's big winners won again.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Utilities were weak...up .2%.  Non-volatiles did not impress.  Despite the gains in volatiles, software and networking stocks lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 5:  The Dow gained 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.8%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Despite the strong upward move in the general market, no individual groups really stood out today.  Stocks with a historical tendency to fare well this time of year did so again.  REIT's outperformed. 

Only a couple groups finished with losses.  Free agents lost .3%.  Small, illiquid equities tended to lose money.  Stocks with strong recent momentum were weak. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 4:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Utilities were clearly the strongest group today...up .5%.  Stocks trading well over prime resistance levels avoided losses, as did non-volatiles.

Stocks whose short-term averages are well below their long-term averages were hit hard today...down 3.7%.  Longterm losers of just about every shade lost large sums of money.  Volatile stocks got smacked.

The above trends are negative as predictors of the next session.

Dec 3:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Stocks trading well over long-term resistance levels were strongest...up as much as .3%.  Oils and utilities avoided losses.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

Stocks with big losses in the previous week continued to drop...down 2.6%.  Volatiles were weak, again.  Stocks trading well below resistance levels were hurt. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 1 (Sat):  We've got our data for the month of November.  Our own take on the market had it down a tad over 7%.

Non-volatiles suffered minimal losses...down as little as 1%.  Utilities and insurance companies avoided large losses.  Expensive stocks were relatively strong.  Biotechs beat the market.

The big losers were stocks that came into the month with large longterm losses.  Such stocks lost as much as 14%.  Volatiles suffered.  Cheap stocks underperformed.  After risk-adjustment, REIT's were quite weak.

The above trends do not match up well with historical Novembers, so we'll refrain from the exercise of predicting December's trends based on November's.

Nov 30:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq lost .3%.  Our own take on the market had it up .7%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Volatile stocks fared well today...up 4%.  Stocks trading well below prime resistance levels gained nicely.  Three month losers were strong. 

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged.  Despite the gains in volatiles, semiconductors were weak...down .2%.   Stocks trading well over resistance levels tended to reverse.  Oils and metals and mining stocks did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.  One question:  will today's atypical gains in volatiles and losers carry over into next week and next month?  Often, end of month trends reverse as the new month gets under way.

We'll have our summary for the month of November shortly.

Nov 29:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .2%.  Our own take on the market had it down .5%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Stocks with negative p/e ratios fared well...up 1.1%.  Cheap stocks fared well.  Free agents outperformed.  Biotechs and oils led industry groups.  Stocks with particularly heavy volume on Wednesday gained nicely.

On the negative side, banks retreated...down 1.9%.  Retails did not impress.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session.  We do like the gains in a couple of rather risky groups.

Nov 28:  The Dow gained 2.6%, Nasdaq 3.2%.  Separation between groups was 4.1%.

Banks were strongest today...up 5.1%.  Stocks with large losses on Monday (mostly banks) fared well.  Volatiles, a group that definitely doesn't include banks, gained nicely.  Stocks with large losses over the last month to year outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The weakest of the lot were small, illiquid operations...up a mere 1%.  Non-volatiles did not impress.  Free agents lagged.  Oils were relatively weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Nov 27:  The Dow gained 1.7%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Our own take on the market had it up .9%.  Separation between groups was 3.7%.

Stocks with a strong tendency to lead the market up or down (banks, mostly) gained nicely today...up 2.2%.  Banks themselves gained around 2%.  Yesterday's big losers reversed. 

On the losing side, oils were weak...down 1.5%.  Cheap stocks tended to lose money.  Volatiles were hurt.  Despite the gains in banks, stocks with big yearlong losses tended to continue to lose.  Smallcaps were weak.  Yesterday's big gainers lost.

The above trends are mixed as indicators of the next session's direction.  The general gains are nice, but the losses in volatiles dampen our optimism.

Nov 26:  The Dow lost 1.8%, Nasdaq 2.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.6%.  Separation between groups was 5.2%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  Free agents were strongest...down .6%.  Friday's big losers reversed.  Utilities outperformed.  Three month winners fared well.  Non-volatiles, of course, resisted big losses.

Stocks with big gains on Friday were burned today...down a big 5.9%.  These stocks are largely banks, so it's not surprising to see banks losing 5%.  Last Tuesday's and Wednesday's big losers took a fresh beating. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Nov 23:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained 1.3%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up as much as 4.6%.  Losers of just about every type, in fact, reversed nicely.

We didn't identify any groups that finished the day with losses.  Utilities were weakest...up .3%.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Stocks with large gains over the last week did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Nov 21:  The Dow lost 1.6%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Separation between groups was 2.5%...perhaps a sign of decreased market volatility.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained.  Outside of shorting the market, the best you could have done was to purchase banks...down .2%.  This is quite a reversal of recent trends...given the last 6 months of suffering inflicted on this group, we're skeptical that this is the last punch to be thrown.  We'll watch carefully.  REIT's avoided big losses.

Stocks with low p/e ratios were weak...down 2.5%.  Not surprisingly, then, heavy industry suffered.  Stocks with big yearlong losses continued downward, despite the presence of banks on the positive side of our tables.  At the same time, stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels tended to lose as well.  Stocks with big gains over the last 1 to 3 months were weak.

The above trends are only slightly negative for the next session...the general losses are unpleasant, but there were hints of risk-taking buried in the morosity.

Nov 20:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .3%.  Separation between groups was 4.1%.

Oils and metals and mining stocks were strongest...up as much as 1.1%.  Expensive stocks fared well.  Stocks with nice gains on Friday continued upwards.

On the negative side, stocks with big losses over the last 3 months were punished...down 3%.  Yesterday's big losers continued to lose.  In fact, losers of just about every shade were victimized.  Volatiles tended to lose money, despite the minor gain seen in the Nasdaq index.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Nov 19:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.4%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Only one group finished with gains...utilities were essentially flat.  Non-volatiles avoided large losses.  Biotechs outperformed. 

On the negative side, stocks whose short term averages are well below their longer term averages were weakest...down as much as 4.6%.  This group largely includes banks, though banks weren't quite weak enough to find themselves amongst the losingest groups in our tables.  Yearlong losers were weak again.  Volatiles were hit fairly hard.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Nov 16:  The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .7%.  Surprisingly, we had the market down .4%!  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Oils were strongest today...up 1.4%.  Monday's big losers outperformed.  Stocks with large yearlong gains fared well.

On the negative side, REIT's reversed yesterday's gains...down 2.2%.  Stocks with big gains over the week reversed.  Wednesday's big losers lost again.  Construction stocks did not impress.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Nov 15:  The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq 1%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Only one group gained today...small, illiquid stocks gained .1%.  Non-volatiles avoided losses of any magnitude.  REIT's held up well.  Tuesday's losers outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels lost as much as 3%.  Volatiles suffered.  Banks were punished. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

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We've got our data for the first half of the month.  Our own take on the market had it down 5.8%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained during this period.  Insurance companies nearly pulled it off, however...down .1%.  Non-volatiles avoided large losses.  Dividend-payers held up well.

Stocks with a low cash/share position were weakest...down nearly 11%.  Stocks that were particularly strong this time last year reversed.  Software stocks were burned.  Volatiles lost in excess of the market.  Cheap stocks underperformed.

The above trends don't match up particularly well with any historic November h1's.  November h1 1997 is about the best match we see.  For what it's worth, Nov h2 1997 was a meandering market that finished with small gains.  Tech stocks, volatiles, and yearlong losers were best avoided.

Nov 14:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 4.8%.

Monday's big losers were strongest today, gaining .9%.  Stocks trading well over the prime resistance levels fared well...the tug of war between longterm winners and losers continues (with the winners having the upper hand).  Oils outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session lost a big 3.9%.  Longterm losers were hit hard.  Stocks with big gains over the last week reversed.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Nov 13:  The Dow gained 2.5%, Nasdaq 3.5%.  Separation between groups was 4.5%.

Stocks that closed well above their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 4.6%.  Yearlong losers fared well.  Friday's big winners continued upwards.  Banks were strong again.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Small, illiquid stocks, however, managed a mere .1% gain.  Free agents did not impress.  Biotechs underperformed.  Non-volatiles, of course, failed to partake in the action.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Nov 12:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Separation between groups was a big 5.7%.

Banks were strongest today...up 1.3%.  Retails made an appearance on the winning side of our tables...something we haven't seen for a while.  Yearlong losers (largely banks) fared well.  Small-caps outperformed.

On the losing side, stocks trading well above their prime resistance levels lost as much as 4.4%...quite a few standard deviations below the mean.  Oils were burned...down 3.5%.  Despite the moderate losses in the Dow, expensive stocks tended to underperform.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Nov 9:  The Dow lost 1.7%, Nasdaq 2.5%.  Our own take on the market had it down a mere .9%.  Separation between groups was 5.2%.

Banks showed some nice gains...up as much as 2.3%.  Stocks with low p/e ratios (banks, in many cases) tended to gain.  Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were strong.  It's rather odd to see this combination of large general losses and bottom fishing.

On the negative side, stocks that opened on Thursday well below Wednesday's closing value were quite weak...down 2.9%.  Long term winners were hurt. 

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.

Nov 8:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Our own take on the market had it UP .9%!  Separation between groups was 5%.

A number of our proprietary indicators predicted gains as high as 4.2%.  These gains were not significant, though...the general feeling today was of chaos, and some groups were bound to walk away with big gains by the luck of the draw.  Banks fared well.  Small-caps fared well, as one might suspect given the fact that our own unweighted data showed nice gains in today's market.  Stocks with large losses over the last month reversed. 

On the losing side, losses as high as .8% were predicted via proprietary indicators.  Again, the results were not significant.  Tech stocks were weak, as one might guess given Nasdaq's big losses.  Stocks with a historical tendency toward strength in this time slot were quite weak this time around.  Long term winners tended to lose money.

The above trends are neutral for the next session. 

Nov 7:  The Dow lost 2.6%, Nasdaq 2.7%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.2%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Stocks that closed near their lows on Tuesday were strongest...down a mere .7%.  The trend was quite significant.  Non-volatiles, of course, resisted losses.  Stocks with big gains over the last month outperformed. 

Stocks that were particularly weak last Thursday topped all losers...down as much as 5.2%.  Banks were pummeled.  Stocks that have been weak over the last month continued to lose in excess of the market.   Yearlong losers suffered again.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  About the only solace one can take is the fact that the losses that tend to follow hugely negative session are, historically, smaller than those that follow moderately negative sessions.

Nov 6:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Last Thursday's big losers led the way today...up 3.4%.  Banks and oils were strong.  

Biotechs were by far the weakest group...down .9%.  Yesterday's big winners tended towards small losses.  Free agents were weak.

For once, the action wasn't dominated by longterm winners (with gains) and losers (with losses).  Investors should be on the lookout for a reversal of these trends...now is certainly the right time of year for such an event.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Nov 5:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .5%.  Our own take on the market had it down .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Stocks with big gains over the last 3 months were strongest, again...up .3%.  Last week's big gainers also continued upwards.  Utilities outperformed.  Non-volatiles avoided losses. 

On the losing side, we have the reverse of above...stocks with large 3 month losses dropped as much as 2.6%.  Volatiles were weak.  Last Tuesday's and Thursday's losers underperformed. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Nov 2:  The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .6%.  Our own take on the market had it down .3%.  Separation between groups was  3.8%.

Stocks trading well over resistance levels were again strong...up as much as 1.4%.  Metals and mining stocks fared well. 

On the losing side, stocks with large yearlong losses were again weak...down as much as 2.4%.  Banks were damaged again.  Stocks that strongly underperformed their best trading partner last month got hurt.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Nov 1:  The Dow lost 2.6%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.3%.  Separation between groups was 4.6%.

Stocks held by large number of institutions relative to market cap held up well...down 1.1%.  Non-volatiles followed closely.  Healthcare stocks avoided major losses.  Last Friday's big losers outperformed. 

Last Friday's big winners were weakest...down a big 5.7%.  Banks followed closely.  Stocks with big losses over the last 3 months continued to get hit.  Volatiles were weaker than the general market.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though Fridays have a way of reversing trends.

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We've got our data for the month of October.  Our own take on the market had it up 1%.

Trading was about as stereotyped as we've ever seen for a single month.  October winners were dominated by stocks with large longterm gains, and losers were dominated by those with longterm losses.  Our single strongest group, however, is a bit of an exception...stocks that strongly outperformed their best trading partner in the month of September gained nearly 8%.  Stocks with a low "leadership" ranking also fared well.

Stocks trading well below their prime resistance level of the last year dropped as much as 6.7%.  Banks were a close second, and were especially weak after risk-adjustment.  Stocks with large third quarter losses continued to suffer.  Volatiles tended toward negativity...unusual in an up market.

The above trends don't match up well with any historical Octobers, so we'll refrain from making inferences about November based on historical Octobers.  November does have a history of rewarding bottom-fishers, though it definitely takes some huevos to go bottom-fishing in a market that has unrelentingly punished losers for more than 4 months now.

Oct 31:  The Dow gained 1%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Oils led the way today...up 2.4%.  Long term winners tended toward strength.  Yesterday's losers reversed.

Once again, long term losers were hit...stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels lost as much as .5%.  Such trends are rather significant and worth pondering on a day when the average stock showed strong gains.  Stocks with big gains in the last week were flat. 

Historically, November has been a good month for bottom fishing.  Risk-takers might want to bet that the trend towards gains in long-term winners, going strong since the beginning of June, finally reverses.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though we would like to see more dramatic gains in volatile stocks.

Oct 30:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq was flat.  Separation between groups was 3.7%.

Stocks with short term averages moderately below their longer term averages fared well today...up as much as 1.1%.  Semiconductors were strong, for once. 

On the losing side, stocks with large losses over the last month (at least 16%) were hit hard...down 2.6%.  Oils were weak.  Despite the gains in tech stocks, volatiles tended towards losses.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.

The above trends are generally a tad negative for the following session, but the upcoming Fed decision and the fact that we're looking at end of month trading adds even more noise to the already noisy task of market prediction.

Oct 29:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .5%.  Separation between groups was 3%.

Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios led the way today...up 1.8%.  Cheap stocks were strong, particularly those that are also quite volatile.  Free agents gained.  Oils outperformed.

On the losing side, banks lost 1.1%.  REIT's were weak. 

Today's session marks the first time in quite a while that longterm winners and losers haven't played a large role in trading. 

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Oct 26:  The Dow gained 1%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Stocks with big losses yesterday led all gainers today...up 3.6%.  Recent losers of all shades, in fact, were strong.  Monday's big winners, however, fared quite nicely.  Yearlong winners continue to impress.  Banks showed strong gains.

The smallest, most illiquid of stocks actually lost money today...down .7%.   Free agents lagged.  Non-volatiles did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session. 

Oct 25:  As with yesterday, the Dow was flat and Nasdaq lost .9%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Utilities were strong...up .9%.  Stocks with large gains over the last three months fared well.  Oils and metals and mining stocks were strong.

On the losing side, stocks with large three month losses lost 2.3%.  In fact, losers of just about every variety were picked on today.  Stocks with high volatility were damaged.   

The above trends are generally negative, but Friday has a way of reversing trends.  We don't generally comment on such things, but Microsoft's nice quarterly performance could help set the tone for a positive Friday as well.  Risk-takers might consider some bottom fishing.

Oct 24:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq lost .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of our tables.  Utilities were relatively strong.  Monday's losers tended toward strength.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

Losers were led by banks...down 1.7%.  Stocks with large yearlong losses continued to drop.  Tech stocks were weak.

The above trends are a tad negative for the next session.

Oct 23:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Our own take on the market had it up a mere .6%.  Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Yesterday's trend toward gains in longterm losers reversed...stocks trading well over resistance levels gained as much as 2.3%.  Stocks with losses in this time slot last year tended to fare well this time around.  Oils and metals and mining stocks were strong.

Stocks whose short term averages are well below their long term averages lost as much as 1.2%.  Longterm losers of every variety, in fact, were weak.  Last Friday's big losers lost again.  Banks did not impress.  Oddly, stocks with high recent volatility tended toward flatness.

The above trends are only slightly positive for the next session...the weakness in volatiles is a bit troubling.

Oct 22:  The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Homebuilders were strong...up over 3%.  Stocks trading well below resistance levels, for once, showed nice gains...let's see if this trend can hold up tomorrow.  Stocks with large losses over the last 1 to 3 months fared well.

On the negative side, biotechs lost .5%.  Stocks trading well over resistance levels fared poorly.  Oils lost money.  Stocks that were strong in this time slot last year were weak today.  Large caps underperformed.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...we'd like to see volatile stocks leading the gains.

Oct 19:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 2.6%.  Separation between groups was a mere 2.5%...despite the big losses, stocks moved in herd-like fashion.

The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile...down as little as 1.1%.  The smallest of small caps actually held up rather well...a minor surprise.  Free agents outperformed.  Healthcare stocks outperformed. 

Oils were weakest...down 4%.  Stocks trading well above resistance levels tended to lose...a reversal of recent trends.  Moderately small cap stocks tended to lose in excess of the market.

Losses tend to be followed by more losses, so we've got to be a tad negative about Monday.  It's interesting, however, to note that volatiles weren't victimized to the extent one would normally expect in such a down market.  We'll be curious to monitor the performance of stocks with large yearlong losses/gains...will today's reversal set a new trend? 

Oct 18:  The Dow was flat, while Nasdaq gained .2%.  Our own take on the market had it down .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

More of the same...stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up 1%.  Stocks that have strongly outperformed their best trading partners over the last month gained nicely.  Tuesday's winners fared well.

And again, stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels were weakest...down as much as 1.8%.  Banks fared poorly.  Stocks with large losses over a scale on one month to one year dropped. 

The above trends are neutral for the next session.  Given Friday's proclivity for reversing trends, gamblers might wish to consider a bit of bottom-fishing.

Oct 17:  The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained 1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .1%.  Separation between groups was 3.2%.

Stocks trading over their prime resistance levels were strongest, gaining .9%.  Semiconductors and scientific equipment makers fared well, explaining Nasdaq's big gains.  Stocks with nice gains over the last month to three months.

Once again, losing stocks were burned...stocks trading under their prime resistance levels lost as much as 2.3%.  In fact, losers of all varieties dropped.  Despite Nasdaq's nice gains, volatiles tended to lose money.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Oct 16:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .6%.  Our own take on the market had it down .9%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Today's trends looked very much like yesterday's.  Only a couple of groups finished with gains, with oils leading again...up .1%.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Last Friday's gainers were strong.

Stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels were  weakest...down as much as 3.1%.  3 month losers continued dropping.  Stocks that were weak this time last year were weak again.  Friday's big losers lost again.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Oct 15:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq .9%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Oils were the only winning group we identified today...up .2%.  Free agents held up well.  Non-volatiles avoided large losses.  Once again, stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels outperformed the market.

Stocks trading well under resistance levels lost as much as 2.6%.  Banks were weak.  Friday's big gainers reversed, while Thursday big losers did the same.

The above trends are negative for the next session. 

Oct 13 (Sat):  We've got our data for the first half of October.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.5%.

Stocks that strongly outperformed their best "trading partner" last month topped all gainers...up 6.9%.  Yearlong winners were again strong...when will this group quit gaining?  Stocks in our computer services, advertising, and publishing groups fared well.  Stocks with poor end of September performances outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows on the last day of September lost 1.2%.  Volatile stocks were generally flat, though non-volatiles weren't impressive either.  Free agents underperformed.

The above patterns don't match up strongly with any historical Oct h1's.  2003, 1999, and 1996 show weak resemblances.  Assuming these three periods have some predictive power, one should not expect any reversals of current trading tendencies, at least until the end of the month.

Oct 12:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Our own take on the market had it up a mere .2%.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Yearlong gainers led the way today...up 1.4%.  Stocks trading well over prominent resistance levels were strong. 

On the negative side we have the opposite of above...stocks trading well under prominent resistance levels lost as much as 1.8%.  Volatiles were weak.  Construction interests underperformed the general market.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session...the disdain for volatiles is a tad alarming, despite the gains in the general market.

Oct 11:  The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq 1.4%.  Separation between groups was 3.4%.

After a promising start, only a handful of groups managed to gain today.  Utilities led the way...up .1%.  Oils and metals and mining stocks resisted large losses.  Non-volatiles and large-caps outperformed.

Volatiles topped our list of losers, down as much as 3.2%.  Cheap stocks were victimized.  Yearlong losers continued to get hurt.  Stocks with poor momentum suffered in excess of the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  Friday does, however, have a tendency to reverse Thursday's trends...traders might want to do some short-term bottom-fishing.

Oct 10:  The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq gained .3%.  Our own take on the market had it down .2%.  Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Stocks trading well over prime resistance levels were strongest today...up as much as 1.1%.  Yearlong winners, of course, were strong as well.  Oils outperformed. 

On the losing side, stocks with big dividends lost about 1%.  Banks, which tend to issue dividends, were weak.  Stocks with strong performances in this time slot over the last three years reversed.

The above trends don't really give any indications as to the direction of tomorrow's market, so we'll refrain from speculating.

Oct 9:  The Dow gained .9%, Nasdaq .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Metals and mining stocks were strongest today...up 1.8%.  Oils were strong.  Stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels continued upwards.  Expensive stocks gained nicely.

On the losing side we have retails...down .9%.  Stocks with big losses on a scale of 1 month to 1 year were weak.  Volatiles and cheap stocks lost money.

The above trends are neutral for the next session...the general gains in the market are promising, but today's action evinces a good deal of risk-aversion.

Oct 8:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq gained .2%.  Our own take on the market had it down .7%.  Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Cheap stocks (under $3.3, to be precise), were strongest today...up .4%.  Non-volatiles finished with minimal losses.

On the negative side, stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their highs lost 2.5%.  Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were weak.  Those with big gains last week reversed. 

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Oct 5:  The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Stocks with a big high-close differential in yesterday's trading were strongest today...up 3%.  Yesterday's losers reversed.  Stocks with big losses over three months to a year fared well.  Monday's big winners continued winning.  Retails turned around.  Publishers made a rare appearance in our winning tables.

We didn't identify any groups that lost money.  Non-volatiles underperformed, gaining as little as .4%.  Free agents were weak.  Utilities did not impress. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Oct 4:  The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained .1%.  Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Small caps led the way today, gaining as much as 1.4%.  Oils rebounded.  Tuesday's big losers turned around.

Retails led losers...down 1.2%.  Stocks with big gains over the last week tended to lose today.  Last Friday's big losers lost again.  Long term losers tended toward weakness.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...we like today's [minor] gains, but Friday has a way of reversing Thursday's trends.

Oct 3:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .6%.  Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Volatile stocks were strong today...up as much as 1.1%.  The strength in volatiles is a bit unusual in an otherwise down market.  Again, stocks with large yearlong losses, or trading well below their prime resistance levels, were strong.  Retails and biotechs outperformed.  Free agents fared well.

Monday's big gainers reversed, losing 1.6%.  Stocks with big gains in September lost money.  Small caps were weak.  Banks and metals and mining stocks underperformed the market.

The above trends are slightly positive for the next session...the strength in volatiles negates the general negativity of the market.

Oct 2:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq gained .2%.  Our own take on the market had it up .7%...small caps were strong.  Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Oddly, stocks with low p/e ratios, a normally dowdy group, topped our list of winning groups...up 2.6%.  Stocks with big losses over the last 3-12 months, and stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels, performed well.  Volatiles were strong.

On the losing side, free agents lost .6%.  Oils were weak...down.4%.  Non-volatiles were flat.  Expensive stocks and those trading well over long-term resistance levels were not impressive.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Oct 1:  The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Stocks that significantly underperformed their best trading partner in the last session were strongest...up 3.8%.  Last week's big losers, especially Friday's, reversed. 

Last Friday's trend toward gains in stocks with large numbers of institutional holders reversed...the group actually lost .1%.  Free agents lost money.  Biotechs were weak.  The cheapest of stocks did not impress.  Non volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Sep 29 (Sat):  We've got our data for the month of September.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.2%.

Stocks with big yearlong gains led all groups...up 6.7%.  Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels followed closely.  Oils gained nicely.  After risk-adjustment, non-volatiles fared well.

On the negative side, we had construction stocks...down 5%.  Retails were weak as well.  The most volatile stocks underperformed.  Stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels continued losing.

The above trends are quite typical for this time of year, so our best guess is that October will evolve in typical fashion...expect some reversals of September's dominant trends and industries in the next few weeks.

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We've got our data for the third quarter of 2007.  Our own take on the general market had it down 4.5%.

No radical gains were available in any particular groups.  Stocks with book value/price figures in the 60-70 percentile topped all groups with a 4.2% gain...not a particularly interesting result.  Stocks with a 3 year history of strength in this time slot continued to be strong.   Biotechs and healthcare stocks avoided losses.  Stocks with large yearlong gains continued to gain, if only slightly.  Expensive stocks and large caps round out the list of stocks that avoided losses.

On the negative side, stocks that came into the third quarter with big losses in June topped our lists...down 20%.  Stocks with large losses in the last week of June were also quite weak.  Yearlong losers were burned.  After risk-adjustment, construction stocks were quite weak.  We were surprised to see that the banking industry avoided the dishonor of being included in our tables.

The tendency toward strength in yearlong gainers, and weakness in yearlong losers is quite typical for the third quarter.  The losses in banks are not.  Assuming that the fourth quarter unfolds in similarly stereotyped fashion, we should see strength in beaten down stocks, volatiles, and semiconductors in the near future.

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