Jan 1:  We've got our data for the fourth quarter.  Despite some decent December gains, our own take on the market had it down a whopping 28% for the period.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses.  The best stocks were simply the least volatile...down as little as 15.7%.  Despite the woes of some big name operations, insurance companies held up well.  Utilities outperformed.  Stocks that entered the quarter with modest gains over the last year (2-14%) avoided massive losses.

On the negative side, oils were hit hard...down 44.1%!  Volatile stocks suffered.  Stocks with big losses in Q3 continued to drop. 

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We've got our data for the month of December.  Our own take on the market had it up nearly 5%.

Stocks that finished November well below their 20 day averages were strongest...up 15.2%.  Volatile stocks outperformed.  Insurance stocks tended to outperform the market. 

On the losing side, oils were by far the weakest group...down 8%.  Cheap stocks tended to lose money.  Non-volatiles tended to underperform the market.  Transportation-related stocks were flat.

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We've got our data for the full year 2008.  The Russell 3000 lost 39%, the Dow 34%.  Our own take on the market had it down 36%.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses over the year.  The strongest stocks were "predicted" by our proprietary indicators.  For example, purchasing stocks with a low "vslice97" value would have resulted in a loss of 14.7%.  Outside of the proprietary indicators, regional banks fared well...down a mere 24%.  That may sound odd, but it's true!

The big losers were stocks with very strong performances in 2007.  Stocks that gained at least 65% in 2007 reversed to the tune of 54% in 2008.  That's a net loss, if you think about it.  Volatile stocks were hurt, though they held up well after risk-adjustment.  2007's big losers did not escape punishment either.  In terms of industries, oils were weakest.

Dec 31:  The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.7%...quite a discrepancy!  Separation between groups was 7.9%.

Volatile stocks led the way today...up a big 9%.  Stocks that strongly lagged behind their best trading partner in the previous session recovered.  Stocks with big losses over the last quarter or year ended the year on an up note.

We didn't identify any groups that actually closed the session with losses.  The weakest stocks were simply the least volatile, gaining as little as 1.1%.  Large caps lagged.  Stocks with solid performances over the last quarter tended towards sluggishness.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 30:  The Dow gained 2.2%, Nasdaq 2.7%.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.5%.  Separation between groups was 5.2%.

Stocks with large (around 60%), if not extreme, losses over the last 3 months were strongest today...up 6.2%.  Yesterday's big losers reversed.  Brokerages fared well. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  The weakest stocks, gaining as little as .9%, were predicted by a couple of proprietary indicators.  Cheap stocks did not impress.  Biotechs lagged.  Non-volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 29:  The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.3%.  Separation between groups was 7.6%.

Oils were the only group that gained...up .4%.  Large caps tended toward flatness.  Non-volatiles resisted major losses.  Stocks that have held up well over the last year (no worse than a 2% loss) outperformed.

On the negative side, REIT's were pummeled...down 7.2%.  Volatiles were next in line, at 5.9%.  Last Friday's big losers continued the streak.  Small caps and cheap stocks underperformed.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 26:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .4%.  Trading continued to be sedate...separation between groups was 3.7%.

Metals and mining stocks were strongest today...up 2.7%.  Stocks that finished near their lows in the previous session fared well.  Quarter-long losers tended to gain.  Oils stocks outperformed.

Losers were led cheap stocks, dropping .9%.  Volatiles tended to finish in negative territory.  Small, illiquid stocks underperformed.

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Dec 24:  The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was a meager 3.1%.

Stocks that closed well off their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 2.1%.  The cheapest of cheap stocks outperformed. 

On the negative side, moderately cheap stocks dropped as much as 1.4%.  last Thursday's big losers lost again.  Oils and metals and mining stocks were weak. 

The above trends are neutral for the next session.

Dec 23:  The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq .7%.  Separation between groups was a mere 4.2%.

Only a couple of groups finished the session with gains.  Metals and mining stocks led the way, gaining .2%.  Computer networking interests eked out gains.  Stocks with strong performances over the course of the year held up well.  Non-volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks that finished well above their lows in the previous session dropped 4.1%.  Volatiles were weak.  Stocks with large losses over the last quarter to year underperformed the market.  Cheap stocks were hurt.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 22:  The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq 2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.8%.  Separation between groups was 9.8%.

Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session were strongest today...up 1.1%.  Utilities finished without losses.  Non-volatiles resisted losses.

On the negative side, last Friday's big winners (with gains better than 12%) reversed...down 8.7%.  Stocks with relatively strong performances over a week to a month tended to reverse.  Oils and metals and mining stocks dropped.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 19:  The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq gained .8%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.5%.  Separation between groups was 11%.

Volatile stocks were the big winners today, gaining as much as 9.3%.  Stocks with large quarter-long to yearlong losses gained nicely.  REIT's performed well.  Tuesday's big gainers repeated the performance.

Losers were led by one of our proprietary indicators ("stock_ind")...down 1.7%.  Stocks that have avoided losses over the last year (less than 10% of all stocks!) tended to lose.  Non-volatiles were weak.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 18:  The Dow lost 2.5%, Nasdaq 1.7%.  Separation between groups was 7.1%.

Our top gaining and losing tables were dominated by industries today.  Leading the gainers were biotechs...up .3%.  Banks finished with slight gains.  Utilities avoided losses.  Non-volatiles held up well.

On the negative side, REIT's dropped 6.8%.  Stocks with big gains over the last month or so were quite weak.  Oils fell again.  Volatiles underperformed the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 17:  The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq .7%.  Our own take on the market actually had it up .6%!  Separation between groups was a surprisingly small 4.3%.

Stocks with short term averages well below longer term averages were strongest today...up as much as 2.7%.  Transportation-related stocks fared well.  Highly, if not extremely, volatile stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, cheap stocks were hurt...down 1.6%.  Banks underperformed.  Stocks with weak performances in the previous session were weak again.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 16:  The Dow gained 4.2%, Nasdaq 5.4%.  Our own take on the market had it up 6.8%.  Separation between groups was 12.1%.

Last Thursday's big losers were strongest today...up 13.2%.  REIT's, a big part of those losses, reversed.  Volatiles fared well. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  "Free agents" were weakest, gaining as little as 1.2%.  The smallest, most illiquid of stocks failed to track the market.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though the extreme nature of today's gains diminishes the accuracy of our prediction system.

Dec 15:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq 2.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3.3%.  Separation between groups was a narrow 5%.

We didn't identify any groups that made money.  Expensive stocks resisted losses...down 1%.  Non-volatiles outperformed the market. 

Volatile stocks led losers...down 6.1%.  Small caps and cheap stocks underperformed the market.  Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session tended to reverse.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

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We've got our data for the first half of the month.  Despite all the recent volatility, our own take on the market had it up a mere .1%.

The strongest stocks were those that had taken a beating over the previous three months...up 8.3%.  Stocks that closed well below their highs in the last session of November fared well.  Biotechs outperformed.  In general, it was a good time to pick up losers, short term to long.

Losing stocks were led by oils...down 7.9%.  Banks did not impress.  Non-volatiles tended to underperform the market.  Stocks with nice longterm gains tended to reverse.

Dec 12:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq 2.2%.  Our own take on the market had it up 3.4%.  Separation between groups was 10.6%.

Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session were strongest today...up 10.8%.  The trend was highly significant.  Yesterday's big losers, quite naturally, followed closely.  REIT's were strong. Volatiles outperformed.

We didn't identify any losing groups.  The largest of large caps, however, were weak...up a mere .2%.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Stocks with strong performances over the last week failed to beat the market.  Expensive stocks did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 11:  The Dow lost 2.2%, Nasdaq 3.9%.  Our own take on the market had it down 4.9%.  Separation between groups was 11.5%.

We didn't identify any winning groups today.  The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile...down 1%.  Free agents held up well.  Tuesday's big winners avoided getting clobbered.  Biotechs beat the market.

The weakest stocks were REIT's, reversing a series a recent gains in a big way...down 12.5%.  Tuesday's big losers and last Friday's big winners were victimized.  Volatiles were hurt.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Dec 10:  The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq 1.2%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.5%.  Separation between groups was 7.3%.

REIT's were strongest today...up 6.8%.  Last Thursday's big losers (largely REIT's) reversed.  Oils gained nicely.  Volatiles outperformed.

We only identified one negative group...stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session lost about .5%.  Small, illiquid stocks were flat.  Insurance stocks underperformed.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 9:  The Dow lost 2.7%, Nasdaq 1.6%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.9%.  Separation between groups was 10.7%.

The market wasn't bereft of winners today.  Stocks with big losses over the last week gained 1.9%.  Free agents and small caps made money.  Oils and metals and mining stocks had minimal losses.

On the losing side, stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their highs were weakest by a large margin:  down 8.7%.  REIT's lost 7.8%.  Yesterday's big winners reversed.  Friday's winners were also weak.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.  We like the fact that risk-taking behavior was apparent even in the midst of a losing session.

Dec 8:  The Dow gained 3.5%, Nasdaq 4.1%.  Our own take on the market had it up 4.6%.  Separation between groups was 9.4%.

Volatile stocks were strongest today, gaining as much as 9.5%.  REIT's weren't far behind.  Stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels outperformed.  Last Tuesday's big winners won again.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Non-volatiles were quite weak, however, gaining as little as .1%.  Utilities lagged.  Stocks that have held up well over the last 3 months did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 5:  The Dow gained 4.4%, Nasdaq 3.7%.  Separation between groups was 8.3%.

Stocks with big gains on Tuesday repeated the performance...up 9.5%.  REIT's popped nicely.  Monday's big losers reversed.  Insurance stocks outperformed.

We didn't identify any losing groups.  Monday's big winners were weakest...up a mere 1.2%.  Oils did not impress.  Stocks with a series of recent losses tended to lag the market.  Non-volatiles underperformed.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 4:  The Dow lost 2.5%, Nasdaq 3.1%.  Separation between groups was 9.8%.

Stocks with particularly low p/e ratios were strongest today...up .5%.  Free agents fared well.  Stocks that were weak in this time slot last year held up well this time around.  Retails outperformed. 

On the negative side, oils were hit hard...down 9.2%.  Metals and mining stocks were also weak.  Stocks trading well below prominent resistance levels tended to dip further.

Bearing in mind that Friday has a habit of reversing the trends of the week, the above patterns are negative as indicators of the next session.

Dec 3:  The Dow gained 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.9%.  Separation between groups was a mere 5.5%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market.  Stocks with nice, if not spectacular, gains in the last session followed through...up 5.9%. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Small, illiquid stocks tended toward weakness, gaining as little as .5%.  Stocks with strong performances over the last 3 months (losing no more than 8%) did not impress.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Dec 2:  The Dow gained 3.3%, Nasdaq 3.7%.  Our own take on the market had it up 5.7%.  Separation between groups was 14.8%.

Stocks with big losses over the last week were strongest...up 14.6%.  Yesterday's big losers followed.  REIT's, one of yesterday's losers, fared well.  Monthlong losers outperformed. 

We only identified one group that actually lost money...stocks that closed at or near their highs in the previous session lost about .1%.  Stocks with big gains over the last week were flat.  Yesterday's winners did not impress.  Non-volatiles lagged, of course.

The above trends are positive for the next session. 

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We have some slightly belated data for the month of November.  Our own take on the market had it down 14.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained, but non-volatiles fared relatively well...down a mere 3.9%.  Stocks that closed near their lows on the last trading session of October outperformed.

The opposite was true on the losing side of our tables...stocks that closed well above their lows on the last session of October lost a whopping 30.1%.  Late October winners in general suffered.  REIT's were burned again.  Yearlong losers and stocks with big yearlong losses continued to take a beating.

Dec 1:  The Dow lost 7.7%, Nasdaq 8.9%.  Our own take on the market had it down a massive 11.7%.  Separation between groups was 16.6%.

The smallest, most illiquid stocks were the strongest today...down a mere 4.4%.  That could change in the next session.  Non-volatiles held up well, as would be expected.  Free agents outperformed.  Stocks with a monthlong tendency to close near their lows avoided massive losses.  Stocks that did not partake in last week's rally fared well.

Stocks with a one month tendency to close near their highs were weakest today, losing an astonishing 21% in a single session.  Stocks with major gains last Monday reversed in dramatic fashion.  REIT's were punished.  Volatile stocks were hit.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  The usual caution:  our prediction system tends to break down in the face of extreme changes in the market.

Nov 28:  The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq .2%.  Separation between groups was 6.8%.

Stocks with heavy institutional ownership (after adjusting for market-cap) were strongest today...up 5.1%.  Small caps and cheap stocks fared well.  Yearlong losers and volatiles outperformed.

On the losing side, oil and gas drillers were weak...down 1.7%.  REIT's lost money.  Stocks with big gains over the last week tended to lose. 

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Nov 26:  The Dow gained 2.9%, Nasdaq 4.6%.  Our own take on the market had it up 6.2%!  Separation between groups was 10.4%.

Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up 11.6%.  Similarly, stocks with big 3 month losses performed well.  Volatiles outperformed.  Last Thursday's big losers reversed.

We didn't identify any losing groups today.  The weakest stocks were simply the least volatile...up as little as 1.2%.  Utilities lagged.  Stocks with big gains over the last 3 months underperformed.  Stocks that have more or less broken even over the last year did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Nov 25:  The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq lost .5%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.5%.  Separation between groups was a relatively tame 6.5%.

Stocks trading well under their monthlong averages were strongest today...up as much as 4.7%.  Moderately volatile stocks (those in the 80-90% decile) fared well.  Metals and mining stocks outperformed.  No strong trends emerged, actually...quite a contrast to the very sharply defined trading action we've seen for almost two months.

On the negative side, stocks with high institutional ownership (relative to marketcap) were weak...down 1.7%.  Non-volatiles tended to lose.  These results are at odds with the fact that the Dow gained, and Nasdaq lost.  So be it.

The above trends are only slightly positive as predictors of the next session.

Nov 24:  The Dow gained 4.9%, Nasdaq 6.3%.  Our own take on the market had it up 7.8%.  Separation between groups was 14%.

REIT's were by far the biggest winners today...up about 15.6%.  Stocks that have taken a recent beating followed.  Volatiles were strong. 

No groups finished with losses.  The smallest of small caps did not impress...up a mere 1.6%.  Non-volatiles lagged.  Utilities underperformed.  Stocks with relatively strong performances over the last week were also included in the mix.

The above trends are positive for the next session, with our usual caveat:  our prediction system weakens coming off extreme sessions.

Nov 21:  The Dow gained 6.5%, Nasdaq 5.2%.  Separation between groups was 15.8%.

Oils reversed yesterday's losses (+14.3%), and much of what you'll see on the winning side of our tables is a consequence.  Stocks with big losses yesterday popped nicely.  Large caps outperformed.  Stocks with big losses over the last 3 months fared well.

On the negative side, free agents actually lost value...down 1.5%.  The smallest of small caps were flat.  Biotechs and medical interests were flat.  Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their highs did not impress.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though the extreme % gains seen today reduce the reliability of our prediction system.

Nov 20:  The Dow dropped 5.3%, Nasdaq 5.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 7.2%.  Separation between groups was 12.3%.

The strongest stocks were the ones that have held up best over the last week or so...down as little as 3.6%.  Non-volatiles resisted major drops.  Stocks with gains or minimal losses yesterday fared well.

Oils were by far the biggest losers...down 15.9%!  The next closest group lost a "mere" 11.8%.  Volatiles were burned.  Stocks with especially large losses over the 3 months continued downwards in a big way. 

Bearing in mind that Fridays are more in the habit of reversing the trends of previous sessions, and that our prediction system breaks down in extreme environments, the above trends must be considered negative for the next session.

Nov 19:  The Dow dropped 5.1%, Nasdaq 6.5%.  Our own take on the market had it down 8.2%!  Separation between groups was 9.7%.

The least volatile stocks were the strongest...down as little as 4.1%.  Utilities held up well.  Stocks with gains over the last year (less than 10% of all stocks!) avoided major losses.

The weakest stocks were the most volatile...down as much as 13.8%!  Stocks that came into the session with monstrous 3 month losses took yet another pummeling.  Monday's big losers were hit hard. 

The above trends are negative for the next session, with the caveat that our prediction system tends to break down in the face of these unprecedented percentage swings.

Nov 18:  The Dow gained 1.8%, Nasdaq .1%.  Our own take on the market had it down .5%!  Separation between groups was 6%.

Stocks with heavy institutional ownership (relative to market cap) were strongest today...up 1.9%.  Free agents and the smallest of small caps were strong.  Last Friday's big winners won again.  Expensive stocks fared well.

Stocks with large recent losses were weakest...down as much as 4.1%.  Volatiles were hit.  Long term losers were also punished.  Last Wednesday's big losers were selected out for more bashing.

Despite the gains in the major indices, the above trends must be considered negative.

Nov 17:  The Dow lost 2.6%, Nasdaq 2.3%.  Separation between groups was a relatively tame 5.9%.

We actually had a handful of winners today.  Utilities led the way...up .1%.  Non-volatiles were flat.  Biotechs showed minimal losses. 

Stocks with short term averages well below longer term averages were weakest...down as much as 5.8%.  Friday's and Wednesday's big losers continued to lose.  Volatiles were hit.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Nov 15 (Sat):  We've got our data for the first half of the month.  Our own take on the market had it down about 16.8%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained.  The strongest stocks were those with particularly low recent volatility...down as little as 6.7%.  Stocks that closed near their lows on the last session of October fared well.  Biotechs held up well.  Expensive stocks outperformed.

The weakest stocks were those already trading well below their most prominent resistance levels...down as much as 30%!  Volatile stocks were hit hard.  Stocks that finished October with a series of large gains tended to reverse. 

Nov 14:  The Dow lost 3.8%, Nasdaq 5%.  Our own take on the market had it down 6.8%.  Separation between groups was 13.1%.

Not surprisingly, we didn't identify any winning groups today.  Stocks that finished yesterday's session near their lows fared best...down a mere 2.1%.  Both extremes of market capitalization held up well.  Non-volatiles, of course, resisted huge losses.  Utilities outperformed.

The biggest losers were stocks that finished well above their lows in the previous session...down a whopping 15.2%!  REIT's were pummeled. 

As we've been repeating lately, our prediction system breaks down in an environment of extreme swings.  Ordinarily, however, the above trends must be considered negative for the next session.  One hopeful note:  volatile stocks weren't included in our list of massive losers today.

Nov 13:  The Dow gained 6.7%, Nasdaq 6.5%.  Our own take on the market had it up 8.4%!  Separation between groups was 11.7%.

Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their lows were strongest today...up a monstrous 15.3%!  These stocks were yesterday's losing-est group.  Stocks with large recent losses reversed.  Oils impressed.  Volatile equities outperformed the market.

We didn't identify any losing groups.  In fact, the weakest group, "free agents", still managed to gain 4%.  The smallest of small caps tended to lag.  Non-volatiles did not impress.  Stocks trading above their most prominent resistance levels tended to underperform.

Bearing in mind that our prediction system breaks down when faced with huge market swings, and that Fridays often reverse trends, the above trends are positive for the next session.

Nov 12:  The Dow lost 4.7%, Nasdaq 5.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 6.5%.  Separation between groups was 8.6%.

We didn't identify any winning groups today.  The issue of volatility dominated the market...the strongest stocks were the least volatile (down as little as 3%), and the weakest stocks most volatile (down as much as 10.9%).  Utilities held up well, again.  Stocks with strong performances over the last quarter to year avoided massive losses.

Stocks that have tended to close near their lows over the last month or so were weakest...down 11.6%.  Outside of the aforementioned volatile equities, stocks with large losses over the last week to quarter took heavy hits.   

The above trends are negative for the next session, with the caveat that our prediction system tends to break down following extreme market swings.

Nov 11:  The Dow lost 2%, Nasdaq 2.2%.  Our own take on the market had it down 2.7%.  Separation between groups was 7.5%.

Today's session strongly resembled Monday's.  The strongest stocks were the least volatile...down .2%.  Stocks with strong performances over the last three months held up well.  Utilities avoided large losses. 

The weakest stocks were those whose short term averages are well below their longer term averages...down as much as 7.6%.  Stocks with large losses over the last week continued to drop.  Volatiles were victimized again.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Nov 10:  The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq 1.9%.  Our own take on the market had it down 3%.  Separation between groups was 8%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today.  Stocks trading well above prominent resistance levels fared well, losing as little as .1%.  Biotechs showed minimal losses.  Non volatiles outperformed the market.

REIT's suffered yet again, this time losing 8.1%.  Stocks with big losses last Wednesday (largely REIT's) repeated the performance.  Stocks with large losses over the course of a month to a year continued on the losing path.

The above trends are negative as indicators of the next session.

Nov 7:  The Dow gained 2.8%, Nasdaq 2.4%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.8%.  Separation between groups was 6.7%.

REIT's bounced back from a string of losses...up 5.5%.  Utilities fared well.  Payers of big dividends and stocks with big losses on Wednesday (largely REIT's) gained nicely. 

On the negative side, free agents (stocks whose motions are largely uncorrelated with the motions of other stocks) were weak...down as much as 1.3%.  Surprisingly for a winning session, volatiles lost.  Retails did not impress.  Small caps and cheap stocks were weak.

The above trends are mixed as indicators for the next session.  The general market gains are nice, but the weakness in volatiles is a bit disturbing.

Nov 6:  The Dow lost 4.8%, Nasdaq 4.3%.  Separation between groups was 8.2%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained in this session, but biotechs held ground nicely...down a mere .4%.  Non-volatiles resisted massive losses.  Stocks with relatively strong performances over the last three months beat the market.

Stocks with large yearlong losses were punished in excess of the market...down 8.5%.  Tuesday's big gainers reversed in a big way.  Volatile stocks were hit.  Oils underperformed.

The above trends are generally negative for the next session.  Again, though, the extreme nature of the losses means that prediction schemes tend to break down.  What's more, Friday has a habit of reversing the trends of the week.

Nov 5:  The Dow lost 5.1%, Nasdaq 5.5%.  Separation between groups was 7.3%.

Stocks with heavy institutional holding (relative to market capitalization) were strongest today...down a mere 2.3%.  Small caps and "free agents" fared well.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Healthcare issues avoided a repeat of yesterday's slide.  Utilities beat the market.

REIT's were the day's big losers...down 9.6%.  Stocks with strong recent momentum going into the session tended to reverse.  Volatiles were burned.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though our prediction strategy tends to lose accuracy following extreme market swings. 

Nov 4:   The Dow gained 3.3%, Nasdaq 3.1%.  Our own take on the market had it up 2.2%.  Separation between groups was 7.6%.

Oils were the clear leaders today...up 7.5%.  Volatiles fared well.  Stocks trading well below prominent resistance levels gained nicely.  Large caps outperformed.

Only a handful of groups lost money today.  Healthcare issues were weakest...down .1%.  Stocks with strong October showings did not impress.  Those with relatively strong performances on a scale of three months to one year were also weak.  Non-volatiles lagged.

The above trends are positive for the next session.

Nov 1 (Sat):  We've got our data for the month of October.  With a late month comeback, things aren't quite as extreme as we had expected.  Our own compilation of stock gains and losses has the market down 19.5%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained in October.  Regional banks were strongest, losing as little as 7.7%.  Stocks with decent, if not massive, dividends held up well.  Non-volatiles resisted major losses.  Stocks with strong performances over the last quarter to year outperformed.

Stocks with big losses over the previous quarter were weakest this quarter...down as much as 29.8%.  Stocks with large losses on a shorter scale (one month) or longer scale (one year) were also weak.  After risk adjustment, REIT's were quite weak.

Oct 31:  The Dow gained 1.6%, Nasdaq 1.3%.  Our own take on the market had it up 4.8%...again, small caps have been strongly outperforming large issues.  Separation between groups was 12.7%.

The trends of the last few days remained intact...volatiles led the way, gaining as much as 12.2%.  Stocks with large losses over the last month showed performed strongly. 

Utilities led losers...down .5%.  Again, non-volatiles underperformed.  Stocks with strong performances over the last month were flat.  Expensive stocks did not impress.

The above trends are positive as indicators of the next session.

Oct 30:  The Dow gained 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.5%.  Our own take on the market had it up 4.7%. Separation between groups was 7.9%.

Winning and losing trends strongly resembled those of the previous session...stocks with big losses over the course of a month to a year tended to gain nicely...up as much as 9.4%.  Volatiles fared well. 

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money.  Scientific instruments were weak...up a mere 1.5%.  Stocks with strong showings over the last month tended to lag.  Banks did not impress.  Non-volatiles were left behind.

Bearing in mind that Friday is more in the habit of reversing the trends of previous sessions, the above trends are positive for the next session.

Oct 29:  I return from a Himalayan vacation and it appears that the financial universe melted down.  We won't attempt to offer commentary for each of the missed sessions, but you can see our commentary-free summaries for every session to gather some idea of forces driving the market on a daily basis.

Jumping back in to our usual format, the Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq gained .5%.  Our own take on the market had it up 1.6%.  Separation between groups was 10.9%.

Stocks with big losses over the last three months were strongest today...up 9.1%.  Yearlong losers followed closely.  Volatiles fared well.  Oils outperformed the market.

On the negative side, stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their highs were weak...down as much as as 1.8%.  Stocks with strong performances over the last week to quarter did not impress.  REIT's finished with losses.  Non-volatiles and dividend payers tended to close with losses.

The above trends are positive as indicators of the direction of the next session.

Oct 6:  We'd love to break down today's topsy turvy market, but it seems our data is coming in late and your webmaster has a plane to catch!  He'll be returning later this month, so we won't be issuing our "daily market summary" for a few weeks.

Oct 3:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.5%.  Things were uglier from our perch...down 2.7%.  Separation between groups was a relatively mellow 3.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses today.  Stocks with low volume on Thursday held up well...down 1%.  Insurance companies avoided large losses.  Large caps outperformed.  Non-volatiles fared well.

On the negative side, REIT's were burned...down 4.7%.  Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last year underperformed.  Volatiles were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Oct 2:  The Dow lost 3.2%, Nasdaq 4.5%.  Our own take on the market had it down 5.1%.  Separation between groups was 9.6%.

We didn't identify any groups that gained today.  Regional banks were strongest...down a mere 1.2%.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Small, illiquid stocks avoided huge losses.  Biotechs and medical technology stocks fared well. 

Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last week were weakest...down as much as 10.8%!  Oils were hammered again.  Volatiles suffered.  Stocks with large losses over anywhere from one to three months underperformed the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  However, as we've made a point of saying lately:  our analysis system breaks down following extreme changes in the market.

Oct 1:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1%...small caps were weak.  Separation between groups was 9.4%.

Banking stocks were the clear winners today...up 4.2%.  Stocks that closed well below yesterday's highs fared well.  Yearlong losers outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their highs in the previous session were quite weak...down 5.2%.  The next biggest loser lost a mere 3.6%.  Oils continued to drop.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week reversed.  Yesterday's big winners were particularly weak.

The above trends are slightly negative as indicators of the next session.

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We've got our data for the third quarter.  Despite all the volatility, crises, and losses in the large indices, our own take on the market had it down a mere .3% for the period!  Small caps held up well.

Banking stocks were the clear winners...up 30.5%.  Stocks coming off a weak Q2 (largely banking stocks) prospered. 

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were weakest...down as much as 32%. Oils stocks followed closely.  Stocks with large gains over anywhere from one month to one year tended to reverse direction. 

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We've got our data for the month of September.  Our own take had it down 7.9%...quite a bit less than we had expected.

Despite the large general losses, a few groups managed gains over the month.  Regional banks led the way...up as much as 12.5%.  Stocks with a strong tendency to mirror the behaviors of other stocks (a "follower", as opposed to a "free agent") fared well.

The action, of course, was on the negative side of the market.  One of our proprietary indicators ("big_pslice") predicted losses as high as 20.5%.  Not far behind were oils, followed by metal and mining stocks.  Volatiles and cheap stocks were quite weak.  Stocks with big yearlong gains (largely oils) underperformed the market.

Historically, September has been the weakest month for the market.  Of course, recent economic and political developments tend to wash out seasonal trends, but we shouldn't lose sight of them entirely.  While this September's negativity isn't entirely unexpected, the losses in yearlong winners is.  Stocks with large yearlong gains tend to outperform in September and the third quarter.

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