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Jan 1: We have our data for December. Our own take on the market had it up 6.4%.
Semiconductors were strongest for the month, something we haven't seen for quite a while...up 13.5%. Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours fared well. Stocks that stepped into the month trading well below their 20 day averages reversed. Volatiles outperformed.
On the negative side, large caps were weakest...up a mere 2%. Banks closed out a rotten year with a rotten month. Non-volatiles could not keep up with the market.
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We have our data for 2009. Our own take on the market had it up a big 42% for the year!
Stocks trading well below their 100 day averages entering the year turned around and came out on top as the year's big winners...up as much as 170%. Volatile stocks finished a close second. Stocks that took a beating in 2008 and cheap stocks in general beat the market by big margins. Banks dominated losers...down 24% for the year. Stocks with strong 2008 performances (up at least 25%) finished the year with small losses.
Dec 31: The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq 1%. As always on the last day of the year, the market became a bit more frisky...separation between groups was 4.3%.
Stocks with heavy institutional ownership (relative to market cap) were strongest today...up 2.5%. Small caps fared well. Free agents were strong. Volatiles and 1 month losers round out the list.
On the negative side, nothing of great interest emerged. Stocks with solid, if not spectacular, 1 month gains tended to reverse.
The above trends are mixed as indicators for the next session.
Dec 30: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained .1%. Separation between groups was weak again...2%.
Stocks with few institutional holders were strongest today...up 1.1%. Again, stocks with weakness over the last week were strong. Biotechs outperformed.
On the negative side, stocks with a strong tendency to close near their highs were weakest...down .9%. Those with big quarterly gains tended to fall back. Oils did not impress.
The above trends are neutral as indicators for the next session.
Dec 29: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .1%. Separation between groups was a miniscule 1.8%.
Stocks trading well below their 5 day averages were strongest today...up .7%. Yesterday's big losers reversed. Small caps outperformed.
On the negative side, REIT's lost 1.1%. Oils did not impress. Volatiles were weak. Stocks with strong gains over the last month round out our list of losers.
The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.
Dec 28: The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq .2%. Separation between groups was a weak 2.1%.
Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close off their highs were strongest today...up 1.1%. Stocks with weakness at this juncture last year fared well this time around. Stocks with strong recent volume round out our list of winners.
On the negative side, stocks with low p/e ratios were weakest...down 1.1%. Last Tuesday's big winners reversed.
The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session's direction.
Dec 18: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq 1.4%. Separation between groups was 3.8%.
Stocks with large yearlong losses led the way today...up 3.6%. Cheap stocks fared well. Banks outperformed. Volatiles round out our list of winners.
Nothing of great significance emerged on the negative side of the market. Retails tended to lose...down .3%. Non-volatiles, of course, lagged.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Dec 17: The Dow lost 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.2%. Separation between groups was a mere 2.2%.
Only a couple groups showed gains today. Stocks with a strong historical tendency to lose in this time slot showed miniscule gains. Yearlong losers also stayed above water. REIT's and construction-related operations held up well. Stocks with strong volume this week outperformed.
On the negative side, metals and mining equities led the way...down 2.2%. Stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were hit. Biotechs did not impress. Stocks with large three month losses round out the list.
The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.
Dec 16: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .3%. We had the market up .7%. Separation between groups was 2.4%.
Cheap stocks were strongest today...up 2.2%. Volatiles also performed strongly. Last Friday's big losers reversed. Oils showed strength again. Stocks with large losses over the last three months round out our list of winners.
On the negative side, nothing of great significance developed. Banks did not impress...down .2%. Non-volatiles lagged.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Dec 15: Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .5%. Separation between groups was 3.1%.
Oils were clearly the strongest group today...up .9%. Biotechs also fared well. Mid-caps finished with minimal losses.
On the negative side, the stocks with low institutional ownership (relative to market cap) lost 2.2%. Stocks with large 3 month losses continued downwards. Volatile stocks lost in excess of the market...a negative sign for the next session. Banks did not impress.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Dec 14: The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq 1.0%. We had the market up 1.5%. Separation between groups was 3.3%.
Despite the gains of the session, nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market. Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels fared well...up around 2.7%. Last Thursday's big gainers repeated.
On the negative side, only a few groups actually lost money. Stocks with a strong recent trend toward gains in the afterhours were weakest...down .2%. Yearlong losers were flat. Volatiles were weak...a negative sign for the next session. Non-volatiles also lagged, however.
The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.
Dec 11: The Dow gained .6%, Nasdaq was flat. Separation between groups was a mere 2.4%.
Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their highs were strongest today...up 1.9%. Volatiles fared well, reversing yesterday's weakness. Retails and REIT's outperformed. Stocks that were weak at this juncture last year showed decent gains this time around.
On the negative side, stocks with heavy volume over the last two weeks topped our list...down .6%. Biotechs tended to lose. Small caps underperformed. Yearlong gainers did not impress.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Dec 10: The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .3%. We actually had the market down .2%. Separation between groups was 3.4%.
Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market. Stocks that have strong underperformed their best "trading partners" over the last month fared well...up 1.3%. Transport-related equities were strong. Large caps beat the market, as the Dow's performance would indicate.
On the negative side, small caps were weak, losing as much as 2.1%. Volatiles lost significantly...a negative sign for the next session. Stocks with large losses over the last three months continued downward.
The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.
Dec 9: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .5%. Separation between groups was 2.5%.
Metals and mining stocks were strongest today...up 1.6%. Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in this time slot repeated the performance. Stocks with a strong "leadership" ranking (i.e. stocks whose movements tend to foreshadow movements in the general market) fared well. Those with large losses over the last week tended to reverse.
On the negative side, nothing of great significance developed. REIT's did not impress. Retails were weak, as they often are this time of year.
The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.
Dec 8: The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq .8%. Separation between groups was a mere 2.3%...stocks marched in lockstep.
We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today, though equities touting a high value for one of our proprietary indicators ("vslice97") were essentially flat. Stocks with strong volume over the last few days held up well. Last Friday's gainers repeated. Non-volatiles held up well.
On the negative side, stocks with a strong recent tendency to close well off their highs were weakest...down 2.3%. Oils dropped. Stocks with large losses over a span of a week to a month underperformed the market.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Dec 7: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .2%. Separation between groups was 3.3%.
Stocks with a strong recent tendency to open well above the previous day's close were strongest today...up 1.9%. Stocks with large 3 month losses fared well. Moderately volatile stocks outperformed.
On the negative side, REIT's were weakest...down 1.4%. Financial service stocks did not impress. Stocks with large losses last week lost again.
The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.
Dec 4: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq 1.0%. We had the market up 2.1%. Separation between groups was 3.8%.
Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 4%. The "business services" sector made a rare appearance near the top of our list. Stocks with weak volume over the last few days outperformed.
We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Large caps stayed put...up .2%. Utilities did not impress. Metals and mining stocks were weak. Non-volatiles underperformed.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Dec 3: The Dow lost .8%, Nasdaq lost .5%. We had the market down 1.3%. Separation between groups was 2.6%.
Only a handful of groups showed gains today. The strongest stocks were those trading well below their 20 day averages...up .3%. Big dividend payers tended to gain. Not surprisingly, then, utilities held up well. Non-volatiles stayed put. Cheap stocks beat the market.
On the negative side, stocks trading well under their 100 day averages dropped 2.3%...a rather odd result given the strong performance of stocks trading well under their 20 day averages! Volatiles were weak. Metals and banking stocks did not impress.
The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.
Dec 2: The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq gained .4%. We had the market up .9%. Separation between groups was 2.8%.
Stocks with a strong recent tendency to gain in the afterhours were strongest today...up 2.8%. Biotechs fared well. Stocks with large losses over a span of one week to one month outperformed. Volatile stocks round out the list of winners.
Utilities were weak, finishing flat. Oils weren't far behind. Large caps lagged, as the Dow's performance indicates.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Dec 1: The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.5%. Separation between groups was 3.3%.
Stocks with a high "perceived risk" were strongest today...up 3%. Those with big losses over the last 5 days tended to reverse. Stocks with strong performances over the last year continued upward.
On the negative side, banks lost .3%. Free agents showed minor losses. Stocks with big losses over the last year did not impress.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
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We've got our data for the month of December. Our own take on the market had it up 3.1%.
Stocks with short term averages well over longer term averages fared best last month...up as much as 8.8%. Large caps prospered. Stocks with nice gains over the previous 3 months outperformed.
On the negative side, yearlong losers dropped as much as 6.6%. Stocks with large losses over 3 months to one year continued to drop. Volatiles lost money...rather odd in a fairly positive environment.
Nov 30: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .3%. Separation between groups was 4.5%.
REITs were clearly the strongest group today...up 3.3%, a full 1% ahead of the next closest group (stocks with big dividends, largely populated by REITs). Stocks with weakness last week tended to reverse. Friday's big losers were particularly strong today.
On the losing side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session lost 1.2%. Retails were weak. Free agents did not impress.
The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.
Nov 27: The Dow lost 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.7%. We had the market down 2.5%. Separation between groups was 2.9%.
We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today. Free agents were strongest, losing a mere .8%. The smallest of small caps avoided major losses. Not surprisingly, non-volatiles beat the market.
Last Monday's big gainers were weakest...down as much as 3.6%. Oils were hurt. Moderately volatile stocks did not hold up well.
The above trends are negative for the next session. It's nice to see, however, that the most volatile stocks were not found amongst the top losers.
Nov 25: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .3%. Separation between groups was 3.1%.
Again, nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market...trendlessness seems to be the trend. Oils fared well, gaining around 1.4%. Large caps outperformed.
Stocks with few institutional holders (relative to market cap) were weakest today...down 1.3%. Banks did not impress.
The above trends are neutral as indicators of the next session's direction.
Nov 24: The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .3%. Separation between groups was a mere 2.1%.
Again, no strong trends on the positive side of the market were evident. Biotechs showed strength. Stocks with large losses over the last 3 months outperformed.
On the negative side, REIT's were weakest...down 1.2%. Stocks with strong yearlong performances tended to head south. Volatile stocks did not impress.
The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.
Nov 23: The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.4%. Separation between groups was 3.4%.
Despite a session of gains, no strong trends emerged on the positive side of the market. Stocks with large yearlong losses fared well...up as much as 2.7%. Stocks showing strength last Friday tended to outperform.
On the negative side, cheap stocks did not impress, losing as much as .5%. The most volatile 4% of stocks actually lost a tad...a negative sign. Free agents underperformed.
The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.
Nov 20: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .5%. Separation between groups was 2.5%.
Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market. Stocks with strong volume over the last two weeks gained as much as 1.1%. Stocks with a series of gains over the last week performed well. Biotechs outperformed.
On the negative side, oils lost around 1.2%. Stocks with strong performances over the last year tended toward weakness.
The above trends are neutral as predictors of the next session.
Nov 19: The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq 1.7%. We had the market down 2.2%. Separation between groups was 3.1%.
We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today. The strongest stocks were free agents...down .5%. Not surprisingly, non-volatiles outperformed. Expensive stocks beat the market.
Stocks with strong momentum over the last 5 days were weakest today...down 3.6%. Yesterday's big winners were particularly weak. Volatile stocks were punished.
Bearing in mind that Fridays often reverse the trends of the week, the above trends are negative for the next session.
Nov 18: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq .5%. Separation between groups was 2.7%.
Stocks trading well below their 5 day averages were strongest today...up 1.3%. REIT's fared well. Volatile stocks outperformed.
On the negative side, Monday's big winners reversed...down 1.4%.
The above trends are slightly positive as predictors of the next session.
Nov 17: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .3%. We had the market down .2%. Separation between groups was 2.7%.
Stocks that opened yesterday's session much high than the previous day's (Friday's) close were strongest...up 1.1%. Metals and mining equities gained nicely. Stocks with big gains over the last three months outperformed.
On the negative side, REIT's lost 1.6%. Cheap stocks tended to lose.
The above trends are neutral as indicators of the direction of the next session.
Nov 16: The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq 1.4%. We had the market up a big 2.7%! Separation between groups was 4.7%.
Stocks with a series of losses last week were strongest today...up a big 5.2%. Last Thursday's big losers were especially strong. Volatiles fared well. Stocks with large losses over the last month also outperformed.
We didn't identify any groups that actually showed losses. The weakest stocks were free agents, gaining as little as .6%. Non-volatiles lagged, of course. Expensive stocks underperformed.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Nov 13: The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .9%. Separation between groups was 2.6%.
Volatile stocks were strongest today...up 2.6%. Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours followed. Weeklong losers fared well. REITs outperformed.
On the negative side, only a couple of groups actually lost money. Stocks with a particularly high value for one of our proprietary indicators ("vslice47") finished essentially flat. Stocks that have shown strength over the last week did not gain. Biotechs lagged. Stocks with a tendency to lose in this time slot repeated the performance.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Nov 12: The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq .8%. We had the market down 2%! Separation between groups was 2.8%.
We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today. Stocks that best resisted losses had strong volume over the last three days. Non-volatiles and large caps held up relatively well.
Losers were led by volatile stocks...down 3.3%. Oils were weak. Stocks with a history of weakness in this time slot tended to repeat the performance.
Bearing in mind that Fridays often reverse the trends of the week, the above patterns are negative for the next session.
Nov 11: The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .7%. Separation between groups was 2.8%.
Stocks with big gains on Monday were strongest today...up 2.1%. Yearlong winners fared well. REITs gained nicely. Volatile, though not extremely volatile, stocks prospered.
On the negative side, extremely volatile stocks lost .7%. At the same time, non-volatiles underperformed. Cheap stocks lost money. Retails and heavy industry did not impress.
The above trends are rather paradoxical, and thus difficult to use as predictors for the next session.
Nov 10: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq lost .1%. We saw things differently, with the general market losing .8%. Separation between groups was 3.5%.
Utilities were strongest today...up .2%. Stocks that have strongly outperformed their best trading partners over the last month fared well. Non-volatiles finished with slight gains. Expensive stocks and large caps beat the market.
On the negative side, stocks with large losses over the last year continued to slide...down 3.3%. Volatiles were hurt.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Nov 9: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 2%. Separation between groups was 3.5%.
REIT's were strongest today, bouncing back from weakness last Friday...up 3.8%. Stocks that fared well in this time slot last year repeated. Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels outperformed.
We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Stocks with a history of weakness in this time slot topped our list of underperformers...up a mere .3%. Stocks with a series of recent losses did not reverse. Free agents lagged. Cheap stocks were weak.
The above trends are positive, though not overwhelmingly so, for the next session.
Nov 6: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .3%. Our own take on the market had it down .2%. Separation between groups was a weak 2.4%.
Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last month were strongest today...up 1%. Yesterday's losers and Monday's big gainers fared well. Biotechs outperformed.
On the negative side, yesterday's big winners were weakest...down 1.4%. REIT's fared poorly.
The above trends are neutral as predictors of Monday's direction.
Nov 5: The Dow gained 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.4%. We had the market up 3%. Separation between groups was 3.7%.
Stocks with weakness in last Friday's session were strongest today...up as much as 5.1%. Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels gained nicely. Transportation-related equities performed strongly...an odd result in such a strongly bullish session. Losers over the last week to month tended to reverse.
We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Banks and insurers were weakest, but still managed to gain around 1.4%. Stocks that closed the previous session near their highs tended to lag. Non-volatiles and large-caps round out the list.
Bearing in mind that Fridays often reverse the dominant trends of the week, the above patterns are positive for the next session.
Nov 4: The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq lost .1%. Once again, our own results differed by a large margin...we had the market down 1.1%. Separation between groups was 4.3%.
Stocks that finished near their lows in the previous session were strongest today...up .5%. Utilities fared well. Non-volatiles outperformed, as evidenced by the Dow's showing. Large caps and expensive stocks beat the market.
On the negative side, banks lost in a big way...down 3.8%. Volatiles were hit. Stocks with large losses over the last 1 to 3 months took hits. Cheap stocks underperformed.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Nov 3: The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq gained .4%. We had the market up 1.4%! Separation between groups was 4.3%.
Despite the flatness in the broad indices, some big winners emerged, led by stocks with a large high-close differential in the last session...up 3.9%. Volatile stocks performed strongly. Stocks with weakness over the last week tended to reverse, though last Thursday's big winners repeated.
On the negative side, the only losing group of note was banks...down .4%. Non-volatiles actually tended to lose money...we always find it intriguing when volatiles gain and non-volatiles lose, as it suggests that money is actually being pulled from conservative positions to stoke the speculative fire.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Nov 2: The Dow gained .8%, Nasdaq .2%. We had the market down .1%. Separation between groups was 3.8%.
Stocks with large yearlong gains were strongest today...up 1.1%. Retails fared well. Large caps and expensive stocks outperformed.
On the negative side, stocks with a low cash/share ratio were weakest...down 2.8%. Stocks that finished near their highs in the previous session took a drop. Volatiles were weak...a negative sign for the next session. Stocks with large yearlong losses continued downwards.
The above trends are neutral for the next session.
Oct 31 (Sat): We've got our data for the month of October. Our own take on the market had it down 6.3%.
We didn't identify any groups that finished the month with gains. Retails held up well, losing around 1%. Not surprisingly, non-volatiles beat the market. Expensive stocks outperformed.
On the negative side, volatiles were punished...down as much as 15.5%. Cheap stocks were hurt. Yearlong losers continued to lose. On the other hand, stocks with big gains in the third quarter reversed. Stocks that closed near their highs on the last session of the third quarter lost in excess of the market.
Oct 30: Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 2.5%. Our own take had the market down 3.1%. Separation between groups was 5.1%.
Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session held up best today...down a mere .9%. Non-volatiles, of course, avoided massive damage. Free agents outperformed.
Stocks with big losses on Wednesday repeated...down 6%. Yesterday's big gainers reversed. Oils were weak. Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels underperformed.
The above trends are negative for the next session. One nugget of optimism; volatile stocks weren't singled out for major losses.
Oct 29: The Dow gained 2%, Nasdaq 1.8%. We had the market up 2.5%. Separation between groups was 6.9%.
Stocks with big losses over the last week led the charge today...up an impressive 6.7%. Yesterday's loser fared particularly well. Monthlong losers also tended to gain strongly.
On the negative side, one of our proprietary indicators ("vkurt") actually "predicted" losses of .2%. Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session were quite weak. The smallest of small caps were ignored.
The above trends are positive for the next session, though this is mitigated by the facts that 1) Fridays have a relatively strong tendency to behave unpredictably and 2), volatile stocks did not perform as well as one might have expected in such an overwhelmingly positive session.
Oct 28: The Dow lost 1.2%, Nasdaq 2.7%. We had the market down 3.3%. Separation between groups was 6%.
We didn't identify any winning groups today. The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile...down .9%. Banks and utilities held up well. The smallest of small caps outperformed...perhaps they were simply ignored as folks ran for the exits.
The weakest stocks were those trading well over their prime resistance levels...down as much as 6.9%. Winners of just about every category, in fact, were punished. Monday's big losers, however, repeated the performance. Volatile stocks also suffered in excess of the market.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Oct 27: The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost 1.2%. Separation between groups was 4%.
Again, only a handful of groups showed gains. Non-volatiles were strongest, gaining .1%, in line with the Dow's performance. Utilities were flat. Biotechs and business services held up well. Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session beat the market.
On the negative side, volatiles were weakest...down 3.8%. Stocks with poor momentum over the last week continued downwards. Yearlong winners lost in excess of the market. Cheap stocks were punished.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Oct 26: The Dow lost 1%, Nasdaq .6%. Separation between groups was 4.3%.
Only one group showed gains today..."business services" gained .2%. Non-volatiles resisted large losses. Biotechs outperformed.
On the negative side, stocks with big losses over the last month continued downwards...down 4.1%. At the same time, stocks with large gains over the last three months were also beaten down. Volatiles were hit fairly hard. Last Friday's big losers lost again.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Oct 23: The Dow lost 1.1%, Nasdaq .5%. Our own take on the market had it down 2.1%! Separation between groups was 3.4%.
We didn't identify any groups that actually gained in this session. Non-volatiles were strongest, losing as little as 1%. Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session held up well.
Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session were weakest...down a big 4.2%. Those with big gains (at least 67%) over the last 3 months showed large losses. Volatiles were punished.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Oct 22: The Dow gained 1.3%, Nasdaq .7%. Separation between groups was 3.5%.
Construction services were strongest today...up 3.3%. Stocks with a series of recent losses rebounded...banks in particular.
Only a handful of groups actually lost money. Semiconductors topped the list...down .2%. Free agents finished in the negative column. Oils did not impress. Volatile stocks were weak...a tad ominous for tomorrow's session. Cheap stocks round out the list.
The above trends are only slightly positive as indicators of the next session's direction.
Oct 21: The Dow lost .9%, Nasdaq .6%. Separation between groups was a mere 2.3%.
Only one group finished with gains today, and that group was not particularly interesting (stocks that lie in the middle of the pack in terms of changes in volume over the last two weeks gained about .02%). Oils held up well. Stocks with nice gains over the last week outperformed.
Yesterday's big losers continued losing...down 2.3%. Banks were weak. Stocks with big losses over the last year lost in excess of the market.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Oct 20: The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .6%. Our own take on the market was different...down 1.4%! Separation between groups was 3.2%.
We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today. The business services segment held up well...down a mere .4%. Large caps and non-volatiles outperformed.
Stocks with a high "perceived risk" value again led losers...down 3.3%. Biotechs were hit. Last Friday's big losers were singled out for further punishment. Yearlong losers lost in excess of the market.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Oct 19: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1%. Separation between groups was 2.5%.
Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up 2.1%. REIT's were strong. Stocks with nice gains over the last week to month also gained nicely.
On the negative side, stocks with a high "perceived risk" ranking (a combination of cheap price and volatility) were weakest...down .8%. This sort of behavior is a bit odd in a positive session. Banks were weak. Stocks with large losses (at least 52%) over the last year dropped further.
The above trends are mixed as indicators for the next session.
Oct 16: The Dow lost .7%, Nasdaq .8%. Separation between groups was 2.7%.
We identified only one winning group, and that was of dubious significance...stocks trading somewhat below their 100 day averages showed miniscule gains. Utilities had minimal losses. Non-volatiles resisted punishment.
On the negative side, cheap stocks led the way, down as much as 2.6%. Volatile stocks lost in excess of the market. Stocks with big gains over the last three months were hurt. Last Tuesday's big losers lost in excess of the market.
The above trends are negative for the next session.
Oct 15: The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq .1%. Separation between groups was 3.1%.
Oils were strongest today...up 1.9%. Stocks that were weak this time last year fared well. Stocks with strong volume over the last few days outperformed.
Stocks with few institutional holders (relative to market cap) were weakest...down 1.2%. Banks and semiconductors tended to lose money. Stocks with good strength last Friday did not impress today.
The above trends are neutral as predictors of the next session's direction.
Oct 14: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.5%. Our own take on the market had it up 2%. Separation between groups was 3.4%.
Brokerages and financial services led the way today...up 3.7%. REIT's reversed yesterday's weakness. Stocks with big gains over the last three months continued upwards. Volatile stocks outperformed.
We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Utilities were clearly the weakest group...up .3%. Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session did not impress. Biotechs lagged. Non-volatiles round out the list of underperformers.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Oct 13: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq was flat. We had the market down .3%. Separation between groups was a mere 2.1%...it's a bit odd to see this level of sedateness at this time of year.
Stocks with large losses (at least 3%) last Wednesday were strongest today...up .8%. Volatile stocks outperformed...a positive sign. Cheap stocks finished with gains.
REIT's led losers...down 1.3%. Insurance companies were weak.
The above trends are neutral for the next session.
Oct 12: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq was flat. Separation between groups was a mere 2.3%.
Little of significance emerged on the positive side of the market. Oils fared well...up .9%. Stocks with big gains last Thursday repeated.
On the negative side, banks lost 1.3%. Stocks with heavy volume in the previous session tended to lose. Last Friday's big gainers reversed. Stocks with big losses (at least 8%) over the last month underperformed. Volatiles finished in with losses..
The above trends are slightly negative for the next session.
Oct 9: The Dow gained .7%, Nasdaq .6%. Separation between groups was 2.7%.
Semiconductors were by far the strongest stocks today...up 2.5%. Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session fared well.
Only a handful of groups lost money today. Stocks with big gains over the last week led the way...down .2%. Oils finished with small losses. Oddly, stocks perceived as particularly risky (a combination of volatility and cheapness) tended to lose. Stocks with big gains last month (27% or more) did not impress.
The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.
Oct 8: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .6%. Separation between groups was 3.8%.
Oils led the way today...up 2.8%. Heavy industry fared well, rebounding from weakness in the previous session. Stocks with big gains over the last month outperformed. Tuesday's big gainers beat the market.
On the negative side, free agents were weak...down .9%. Banks and biotechs lost money. Stocks with losses over the last three months continued losing.
The above trends are slightly positive for the next session.
Oct 7: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .3%. Separation between groups was a mere 2%.
Stocks with high values for our "inertia" indicator were strongest...up 1.1%. Retails fared well. Stocks with nice gains in September continued upwards.
On the negative side, stocks trading well below their 20 day averages were weak...down .9%. Heavy industry did not impress.
The above trends are neutral as indicators for the next session.
Oct 6: The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.7%. Separation between groups was a mere 2.8%...stocks tended to move in sync.
Metals and mining stocks were strongest today...up 3.2%. Stocks with big gains in the previous quarter continued upwards. At the same time, stocks that took a hit in the last week reversed. Volatiles outperformed.
We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Stocks with high "inertia" - a tendency to lock in at particular price levels - were weakest...up a mere .4%. REIT's lagged. Biotechs did as well...they've developed the odd habit of outperforming in times of market weakness and lagging in time of strength. Despite the strength in Q3 winners, stocks with big yearlong gains did not impress.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Oct 5: The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1%. We had the market up 2.1%. Separation between groups was 4.6%.
Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up a sweet 4.9%. Volatiles gained nicely. At the same time, stocks with a poor showing last week tended to reverse in a strong way.
Free agents were weakest...up a mere .4%. Stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session did not impress. Non-volatiles lagged.
The above trends are positive for the next session.
Oct 2: The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .5%. We had the market down .8%. Separation between groups was 4%.
Our proprietary indicators figured prominently on the winning side of the market...one ("pskew") predicted gains as high as 1.3%. Small caps outperformed. Stocks that fared well this time last year repeated the performance. Stocks that avoided large losses in the previous session showed minimal losses.
On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were weak...down 2.7%. Stocks with big gains in September tended to reverse. Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels did not impress.
The above trends are slightly negative as indicators for the next session.
Oct 1: The Dow lost 2.1%, Nasdaq 3.1%. Separation between groups was 4.8%.
Non-volatiles held up best...down 1.4%. Not surprisingly, then, utilities avoided major losses. Stocks trading well below major resistance levels outperformed.
Stocks trading well above major resistance levels were weakest...down 6.2%. Volatiles were beaten down. Stocks with major gains over the last three months were punished.
The above trends must be considered negative for the next session. The negativity is mediated, however, by the fact that Fridays tend to reverse the trends of the week.
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