Market Trends and Seasonality Diary

Only one group finished with gains today...a proprietary indicator ("big_vslice") "predicted" gains of .1%. Cheap stocks surprised...perhaps they'll take some punishment in the next session. Retails beat the market.

On the negative side, stocks with the top 4% of gains in the previous session took a beating...down 2.7%. Volatiles underperformed.

June 29: The Dow lost 2.7%, Nasdaq 3.9%. Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Non-volatiles were strongest today...down a "mere" 1.5%. Utilities held up well.

The negative side, of course, was where the action was today. Here, stocks with large yearlong gains led the way...down a big 5.9%. Volatiles followed. Stocks with big losses over the last month continued downward, in a big way.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though our prediction system breaks down to some extent following extreme market sessions.

June 28: Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .1%. We had the market down .6%. Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with large losses last week were strongest today...up 1%. Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session fared well. Utilities actually made a decent move (up .6%). Non-volatiles finished with slight gains.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were weak...down 2.6%. Last week's big gainers reversed. Stocks with strong yearlong performances tended toward weakness.

June 25: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .3%. We had the market up 1.6%...quite a discrepancy! Separation between groups was 3.9%.

REITs were strongest today...up 3.2%. Small caps (not micro caps, which actually dropped) fared well, explaining a portion of the difference between our market result and the major indices. Stocks of moderate volatility outperformed.

On the negative side, cheap stocks dropped .8%. Volatile stocks suffered. Stocks with large losses over the last three months continued downward.

June 24: The Dow lost 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.2%. Separation between groups was 2.4%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today. Biotechs were strongest, losing a mere .5%. Non-volatiles held up well. Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with big gains on Monday were weakest...down 3%. Small caps were hit. Oils, metals and mining, and retails all underperformed.

June 23: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .3%. Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market. Monday's big losers tended to reverse. Moderately volatiles stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were weakest...down 1.4%. Volatiles were hit. Banks and insurance companies underperformed the market.

June 22: The Dow lost 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.2%. We had the market down 2.1%. Separation between groups was 3.1%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today. Stocks with low market caps were strongest...down a mere .4%. Sometimes it appears that these microcaps hold up well merely by virtue of being ignored, so investors might want to be wary of them in the next session. Software makers outperformed. Non-volatiles, of course, beat the market.

Stocks that have strongly outperformed their best trading partners over the last month were weakest...down 3.4%. Oils were hurt. Stocks with strong yearlong performances suffered.

We only identified one group that showed (miniscule) gains...the 92-96% of stocks ranked according to market cap (100% being the largest market cap). Expensive stocks and non-volatiles resisted losses.

Stocks with big gains last Friday reversed...down 2.7%. Cheap stocks and volatiles were weak. Stocks with a series of recent losses continued downward.

June 18: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .1%. Separation between groups was 2.2%.

Stocks trading well under their 100 day averages were strongest today...up 1.4%. Cheap stocks, small caps, and volatile stocks gained nicely, reversing the previous day's losses in these categories. Metals, mining, and oils fared well.

On the negative side, Thursday's big losers continued downward. Retails were weak.

June 17: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .1%. We had the market down .2%. Separation between groups was 3%.

Stocks with low volatility were strongest today...up as much as .8%. That's a rather unusual result, as non-volatiles usually perform best in losing markets. Utilities followed.

Stocks with low p/e ratios were weakest today...down 2.2%. Volatiles did not impress. Cheap stocks and one-month losers followed.

June 16: Both the Dow and Nasdaq were flat. We had the market down .5%. Separation between groups was 3.1%.

One of our proprietary indicators ("slice97") led the way in "predicting" today's greatest gainers...up .7%. Biotechs and healthcare interests fared well, reversing weakness in the previous session. Utilities gained.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged. Stocks trading well under their prime resistance levels were weak, losing as much as 2.4%. Stocks with high book values relative to price lost in excess of the market. Volatiles suffered.

June 15: The Dow gained 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.8%. Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Stocks with strong gains last Thursday fared best today...up 3.9%. Those with big losses over the last month gained nicely. Semiconductors were strong. Metals, mining, and oils round out the list of big winners.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money today. Non-volatiles, not surprisingly, were the biggest laggers...up a mere 1%. Stocks with a strong recent tendency to open near their lows did not impress. Free agents were weak. Stocks with strong volume over the previous 3 days couldn't keep up with the market...we often see that heavy volume is hardly a predictor of future gains.

June 14: The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq was flat. We had the market up .4%. Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Volatiles were strongest today...up 1.9%. Stocks with a series of recent losses fared well. REIT's outperformed. Finally, stocks with strong yearlong performances gained nicely.

On the negative side, banks were weakest...down .4%. Large caps did not impress.

Stocks with large losses over the last week were strongest today...up 2.8%. Yearlong losers also fared well. Volatiles were strong.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Utilities were weakest, gaining a mere .1%. Non-volatiles and large caps lagged.

May 21: The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.1%. Separation between groups was 3.3%.

REITs were strongest today...up 3%. Stocks with particularly lousy showings this week fared well. Metals and mining stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, small caps lost as much as .3%. Biotechs did not impress. Non-volatiles lagged. Free agents round out the list.

May 20: The Dow lost 3.6%, Nasdaq 4.1%. Our own take on the market had it down 4.9%. Separation between groups was 4.9%.

The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile...down a "mere" 2.5%. Stocks with good strength over the last week held up well. Those that closed near their lows in the previous session avoided major losses.

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were weakest today...down as much as 7.4%. Three month winners took a beating. Volatiles suffered in excess of the market...no surprise there.

The above trends must be considered negative for the next session. However, our prediction system tends to break down following major gains or losses in the market. Also, Fridays are in the habit of reversing the trends of the week.

May 19: The Dow lost .6%, Nasdaq .8%. We had it down 1.4%. Separation between groups was 3.4%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today. The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile...down as little as .3%. Insurance companies and brokerages held up well. Large caps outperformed.

On the negative side, volatiles lost as much as 3.7%. Cheap stocks were victimized. Again, stocks with strong performances over the last three months lost in excess of the market.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained today. The strongest stocks were simply the least volatile, losing as little as .5%. Biotechs held up well.

On the losing side, stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were clearly the day's biggest dogs...down 4.8%. The trend was hugely significant from a statistical point of view...more than 6 standard deviations from the mean. Volatile stocks were weak, naturally. Stocks with big gains over the last three months lost in excess of the market.

Retails were strongest today, bouncing back from weakness last week...up 1.4%. Semiconductors also fared well. Stocks with weak volume last Friday outperformed.

On the negative side, oils led the way...down 1.3%, followed by metals and mining stocks. Stocks with weakness over the last three months fared poorly. Large caps lagged.

We didn't identify any groups that made money today. The strongest stocks were the least volatile, losing as little as .8%. Utilities held up well. Stocks that have underperformed over the last year tended to outperform.

On the negative side, stocks with large, if not extreme, gains over the last year fared worst...down 3.9%. Volatiles were victimized. Monday's big gainers were hurt.

Stocks with strong volume in the previous session were strongest today...up .4%. Those with a tendency to gain in the afterhours avoided losses. Free agents and recent losers beat the market.

On the negative side, pharmaceuticals were weakest...down 2.4%. Retails followed. Stocks with big gains in the last week to quarter lost in excess of the market.

Bearing in mind that Fridays are most likely to reverse the trends of the week, the above trends are negative for the next session.

May 12: The Dow gained 1.4%, Nasdaq 2.1%. We had the market up 2.6%. Separation between groups was 3.7%.

Stocks with big losses last Friday were strongest today...up 4.5%. Recent losers of all stripes, in fact, performed well. At the same time, yearlong winners beat the market. Volatiles and small caps outperformed.

On the negative side, non-volatiles were weakest, gaining as little as .8%. Large caps lagged.

May 11: The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq was flat. We had the market up .5%. Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Stocks with short term averages well over their long term averages were strongest today...up as much as 2.3%. Biotechs fared well. Stocks with weak volume over the last two weeks gained nicely. Long term winners outperformed.

On the negative side, large caps led the way...down as much as .5%. Expensive stocks did not impress. Metals and mining stocks finished with losses.

May 10: The Dow gained 3.9%, Nasdaq 4.8%. We had the market up 5.5%. Separation between groups was 6.2%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 8.5%. Volatiles fared well. Stocks with big gains this time last year gained nicely. Yearlong gainers round out the list of big winners.

The weakest group was non-volatiles...but they still managed to gain 2.2%. Stocks that held up well last week lagged today.

The above trends are positive for the next session, though the extreme nature of the session makes market prediction more problematic than usual.

Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session best resisted further losses...down 1%. Banks held up well, again. Non-volatiles beat the market.

Stocks with big losses on Wednesday were weakest today...down 4.4%. Stocks trading well over their long term resistance levels were victimized.

May 6: The Dow lost 3.2%, Nasdaq 3.3%. Separation between groups was 3.9%...despite the massive swings today, stocks moved in herdlike fashion.

We didn't identify any groups that gained today. Far from it, in fact...our strongest group, stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session, lost 2.3%. Non-volatiles held up well.

Volatiles were saddled with the worst of the day's damage...down as much as 6.2%. Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were hit hard. Monday's big winners reversed. Cheap stocks lost in excess of the market.

The above trends are negative as indicators of the next session's direction. One mitigating factor would be the fact that Fridays are more likely to reverse the trends of the week than other days.

The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq .9%. We had the market down 1.5%. Separation between groups was 2.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today. Non-volatiles fared best, losing as little as .1%. Biotechs held up well. Banks and large-caps beat the market.

Stocks with large gains over the last three months were weakest today...down as much as 2.8%. Volatile stocks were hit.

Apr 13: Note to our regulars: your webmaster will be vacationing for a couple weeks, so this page will not be updated until early May.

REITs were clearly the strongest group today, bouncing back from yesterday's weakness...up 2%. Last Thursday's big losers fared well.

On the negative side, volatile stocks were weakest...down 1.5%. Stocks with a strong recent tendency to gain in the afterhours fared poorly. The gains available via momentum investing ceased today. Oils did not impress.

Stocks that have strongly outperformed their best trading partners over the last 20 days were strongest today...up a big 3.6%. Stocks with good momentum on a scale of a few days to a month fared well. Cheap stocks and volatiles outperformed. Stocks with strong recent volume round out the list.

On the negative side, REITs lost .7%. Expensive stocks (trading above $56...about 10% of the stocks in our database) were weak.

Momentum continues to be way to make a buck in the current atmosphere...stocks with big gains over the last week gained 2.7%. Stocks with heavy volume over the last two weeks fared well.

On the negative side, banks were weakest...down .7%. Stocks with low institutional owner tended to lose money. Equities with low volume over the last two weeks underperformed.

Stocks with strong recent momentum were strongest today...up 2.8%. There's definitely a strong element of momentum-based buying in the current market, though tomorrow (Friday) presents a greater-than-average opportunity for a shift in this behavior. Tuesday's big gainers were particularly strong. Volatiles outperformed.

Stocks with large yearlong losses led all winners today...up 1.4%. At the same time, stocks with poor performances over the last week outperformed. Cheap stocks and volatile stocks fared well.

Apr 6: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained .3%. Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Banks were strongest today...up 2.3%. Stocks with large monthlong gains followed. Stocks with strong performances this time last year fared well. Volatiles round out the list of winners.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged. Stocks with small, but non-zero, dividends were weak...down as much as .3%. Biotechs lagged. Heavy industry did not impress.

Apr 5: The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq 1.2%. We had the market up 2%. Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Stocks with strong performances last week continued upwards...+4.5%. Thursday's big winners were particularly strong. In fact, winners over just about any time frame fared well. Volatiles outperformed.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Non-volatiles lagged....up as little as .6%. Not surprisingly, then, utilities and heavy industry were weak. Biotechs and medical devices did not impress.

Stocks with a historical tendency to gain in this time slot repeated the performance...up 2.5%. Oils fared well. Stocks with big yearlong gains outperformed.

Nothing of great interest emerged on the negative side of the market. Business services and computer networking stocks were weak. Small caps underperformed.

We have our data for the month of March. We have the market up a sweet 7.7% for the period.

Cheap stocks (trading between $2.50 and $3.70...not the absolute cheapest stocks) were strongest for the month...up 14.7%. Stocks with large losses over the previous 3 months reversed nicely. At the same time, stocks with strong yearlong performances also outperformed. Retails prospered.

Mar 31: Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost .5%. Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks with a heavy cash per share position were strongest today...up 1%. Last Thursday's big losers fared well. Oils and metals/mining stocks eked out gains. Recent losers and monthlong gainers both beat the market.

Semiconductors were strongest today...up 1.2%. Stocks of average volatility performed well...an unusual result.

On the negative side, volatile stocks were weakest...down 1.7%. Stocks with large gains over the last month did not impress. Stocks with losses this time last year repeated the performance.

Mar 29: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .4%. Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Stocks with large losses last Thursday were strongest today...up 2.3%. Oils and metals/mining fared well. Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels outperformed. At the same time, stocks with large 3 month losses beat the market.

On the negative side, stocks with a high "perceived risk" (a combination of cheapness and volatility) suffered...down .5%. REIT's were weak. Stocks with large yearlong losses round out the list.

Mar 26: The Dow gained .1%, Nasdaq lost .1%. Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Stocks with good strength over the last 5 days fared best today...up 1.2%. Monthlong gainers also outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with high profit margins were weakest...down 1%. Banks underperformed. Yearlong losers lost in excess of the market.

Mar 25: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .1%. We had the market down .7%. Separation between groups was 3.1%.

Small caps were strongest today...up .3%. Entertainment-related industries fared well. Stocks with strong, if not exceptional, gains over the last three months outperformed.

On the negative side, oils were the clear leaders...down 2.8%. Utilities and metals/mining stocks followed. Stocks with large losses over the last month to three months were weak.

Bearing in mind that Fridays tend to feature reversals of recent market behavior, the above trends are negative for the next session.

Stocks with big losses last Friday were strongest today...up 1.4%. Oddly for a losing session, volatiles and cheap stocks fared well. REITs outperformed. Stocks with heavy volume over the last two weeks beat the market.

On the negative side, semiconductors lost 1.7%. Healthcare stocks underperformed.

Stocks with big yearlong gains were strongest today...up 2.9%. Stocks with big losses last Friday fared well. Volatiles outperformed.

Banks were weakest today...up a mere .1%. Non-volatiles lagged. Yearlong losers lagged.

Mar 22: The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .9%. We had the market up 1.2%. Separation between groups was 4.8%.

Stocks with big losses last Friday were strongest today...up 4.5%. In fact, just about every sort of short-term loser reversed during today's session. At the same time, long term winners also fared well. Stocks that fared well this time last year repeated the performance.

On the negative side, only one group actually lost money...utilities fell .2%. Stocks with strong performances last Friday were weak. Non-volatiles failed to keep up.

Mar 19: The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq .7%. We had the market down 1.1%. Separation between groups was a big 5%.

Stocks with heavy institutional holding (relative to market capitalization) were strongest today...up .5%. Non-volatiles actually finished with small gains. Stocks with weak yearlong performances tended to outperform. Banks held up well.

On the negative side, stocks with big yearlong gains were hit hard...down 4.5%. Volatiles followed. Cheap stocks were victimized. Stocks with strong performances this time last year round out the list.

Mar 18: The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq .1%. We had the market down .3%. Separation between groups was 3.3%.

Stocks trading well below their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up 1%. Scientific device manufacturers fared well. Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot outperformed.

On the negative side, oils were clearly today's big loser...down 2.3%. Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels lost money. Volatiles were weak.

Mar 17: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .5%. Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Stocks with big gains over the last month were strongest today...up 1.9%. Yesterday's big gainers continued to outperformed. Volatiles beat the market.

On the negative side, stocks with a three year history of losses in this time slot lost again...down .6%. Biotechs lost money.

Stocks with high recent volatility were strongest today, reversing yesterday's weakness in the group...up 2.6%. Stocks that were weak this time last year fared well. REITs gained nicely.

On the negative side, stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session lost about .2%. Stocks with poor performances over the last month tended to continue the trend.

Mar 15: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq lost .2%. Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Stocks with large gains in volume over the last two weeks were strongest today...up .7%. Medical devices fared well. Retails outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks trading well over their most prominent resistance levels were hit...down 1.9%. Biotechs were weak...it's an unusual trading session when biotechs drop while medical devices gain. Volatiles underperformed...a negative sign for the next session.

Mar 12: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .1%. Separation between groups was 2.1%.

Retails were strongest today...up .9%. Stocks with strong volume over the last few days fared well. Cheap stocks and volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with a strong tendency to close near their highs were weakest...down 1.1%. Banks were hurt. The business services group also finished with losses.

Mar 11: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .4%. Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 1.5%. Yearlong losers fared well...something of a shift in recent trading patterns. Stocks with large increases in volume over the last few days gained nicely. Banks outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with short term averages well over long term averages were weakest...down .9%. Last Monday's big gainers reversed.

Bearing in mind that Fridays have a stronger tendency to reverse recent trends than other days of the week, the above trends are slightly positive for the next session.

Mar 10: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained .8%. Separation between groups was 2%.

Stocks with large gains (at least 36%) over the last month were strongest today...up 1.9%. Volatile stocks fared well. Yesterday's big winners continued upwards...momentum strategies have fared well recently. Cheap stocks round out the list.

We only identified one group that showed losses...food processing and miscellaneous fabricated products lost .1%. Non-volatiles, not surprisingly, failed to keep up with the general market.

Stocks that have strongly outperformed their best trading partners over the last month were strongest today...up 1.9%. Volatile stocks gained nicely. Stocks with weak performances this time last year reversed. Transport-related stocks reversed yesterday's weakness.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance developed. Semiconductors lost around .3%. Stocks with weakness over the last month continued downwards. Metals and mining and oil stocks did not impress.

Mar 8: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq gained .2%. Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Stocks with high book values relative to stock price were strongest today...up 1.7%. REITs fared well. Cheap stocks and volatiles outperformed. Stocks with large losses over the last three months beat the market.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged, with one of our proprietary indicators "predicting" losses as great as .5%. Transport-related stocks were weak. Biotechs underperformed. Large caps and expensive stocks round out the list.

Mar 5: The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.5%. We had the market up 1.9%. Separation between groups was 2.9%.

Stocks with a strong recent tendency to close near their highs were strongest today...up 3.7%. Those with big gains over the last week continued to fare well. One month and one year gainers also outperformed. Stocks with weak performances this time last year were strong this time around.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Biotechs were weakest, gaining a mere .8%. Non-volatiles lagged, of course. Stocks with weak yearlong gains (no better than 9%) underperformed.

Mar 4: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .5%. Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Retails were strongest today...up 1.8%. Stocks with strong performances on Tuesday repeated. Stocks with large increases in volume in the previous session outperformed.

Mar 3: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq was flat. We had the market up .3%. Separation between groups was 2.4%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market. Stocks trading around $5.00 fared well. Volatile stocks outperformed. Oils and metals and mining stocks beat the market again.

Mar 2: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq gained .3%. We had the market up .9%. Separation between groups was a mere 2.1%.

Stocks with a history of losses in this time slot were strongest today...up 2.1%. Biotechs were strong, with oils and metals/mining not far behind.

On the negative side, stocks with big gains last Wednesday were weakest today...up a mere .1%. Large caps lagged.

Stocks with big yearlong gains were strongest today...up a sweet 4%. At the same time, those with large losses over the last week reversed nicely. Biotechs fared well.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Stocks with large profit margins were weakest...up a mere .6%. Banks and REITs lagged. Non-volatiles couldn't keep up with the market.

Feb 27 (Sat): We have our data for the month of February. Our own take on the market had it up a sweet 5.2%.

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were strongest over the month...up as much as 11.1%. Naturally, then, stocks with big yearlong gains continued upwards. Stocks with large high-close differentials on the last trading day of January fared well.

On the negative side, we only identified one group that actually lost money...stocks that closed the month of January with unusually low volume lost less than .1%. Yearlong losers were weak. Banks and biotechs did not impress. Free agents lagged. Dividend payers round out our list.

Feb 26: The Dow gained .2%, Nasdaq .1%. We had the market down .2%. Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Nothing of great significance emerged on the positive side of the market. Large caps and expensive stocks tended to outperform. Transportation-related industries fared well.

On the negative side, stocks with big gains on Wednesday tended to reverse...down as much as 1.3%. Small caps were weak. Banking and insurance interests failed to impress.

Stocks held by large numbers of institutions (relative to market cap) were strongest today...up .3%. Small caps finished the day with small gains. Free agents fared well. Biotechs avoided big losses.

On the negative side, oils were weakest (down 2.4%), followed closely by metals and mining stocks. Semiconductors were weak, reversing recent strength. Stocks with big yearlong gains did not impress.

Banks led gainers today...up 1.4%. Stocks that have strongly underperformed their best trading partners over the last month fared well. Small caps outperformed.

On the negative side, oils were the clear losers...down 1.1%. Biotechs continued recent weakness. Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels did not impress.

Feb 19: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .1%. Separation between groups was 2.3%.

Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last month were strongest today...up 1.6%. Yesterday's losers fared well. Cheap stocks outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with high or negative p/e ratios led the way...down .7%. Biotechs were weak.

Feb 16: The Dow gained 1.7%, Nasdaq 1.5%. Separation between groups was 2.8%.

Metals and mining stocks fared best today...up 3.2%. Oils followed closely. Volatiles and stocks with large yearlong gains gained nicely. Stocks that performed poorly in this time slot last year were strong.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money today. The smallest of small caps lagged the market...up a mere .4%. Free agents did not impress. Stocks with heavy volume last Friday round out our list.

Feb 12: The Dow lost .4%, Nasdaq gained .3%. Separation between groups was 2.6%.

Stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were strongest today...up 2%. Those trading well above their prime resistance levels fared well.

On the negative side, stocks with large increases in volume in the previous session were weakest...down .6%. The smallest of small caps did not impress, but large caps also lagged the market. Yesterday's losers were flat.

Feb 11: The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.4%. Separation between groups was 2.7%.

Stocks with high institutional holdings (relative to market cap) were strongest today...up as much as 3.2%. Oils fared well. Stocks with large losses (at least 23%) over the last month turned around. Volatile stocks round out the list of winners.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. Banks were weak...up .6%. Non-volatiles lagged, naturally. Dividend payers in general did not impress.

Bearing in mind that Fridays often reverse the trends of the week, the above trends are positive for the next session.

Feb 10: The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq .1%. Separation between groups was 2%...stocks moved in lockstep.

Stocks with a three year history of weakness in this time slot were strongest today...up 1.3%. Semiconductors outperformed. Stocks with a high combination of volatility and cheapness fared well.

On the negative side, nothing of significance developed. Last Friday's losers lost again. Large caps underperformed the general market.

The above trends are slightly positive as indicators of the next session's direction.

Feb 9: The Dow gained 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.2%. Separation between groups was 3.6%.

Last Thursday's big losers were strongest today...up 3%. Metals and mining stocks fared well. Transport-related issues joined in. Volatile stocks outperformed. Stocks with weak performances over the last month round out the list.

On the negative side, REITs lost about .6%. Naturally, then, big dividend payers tended toward weakness. Free agents lagged.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses today. Semiconductors were essentially flat. Last Friday's losers held up well.

On the negative side, stocks that closed the previous session well above their lows were weak...down 2.3%. REIT's suffered. Stocks with big gains on Friday reversed.

Stocks that had taken a big hit over the last week were strongest today...up 2.1%. Tuesday's big losers were particularly strong. Those with heavy recent volume fared well.

On the negative side, nothing of great significance emerged. Stocks with high book values relative to price were weak...down .6%. Stocks with large yearlong gains showed minor losses.

We didn't identify any groups that gained today. The strongest stocks had low recent volatility...down 1.6%. Surprisingly, banks and insurers held up relatively well.

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels showed the biggest losses today...down as much as 5.7%. Monday's big winners were thrashed. Volatile stocks were hurt in excess of the general market. Oils took a beating.

Bearing in mind that Fridays have a tendency to reverse the trends of the previous week, the above trends are negative as indicators for the next session.

Feb 3: The Dow lost .3%, Nasdaq was flat. Our own take on the market had it down .7%. Separation between groups was a weak 2.2%.

Stocks in the computer services sector were strongest today...up .3%. Otherwise, nothing of great interest developed on the positive side of the market.

Yesterday's biggest losers lost again...down 1.8%. Banks and REITs were weak. Monday's big winners tended to reverse.

The above trends are neutral as indicators of the direction of the next session.

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were strongest today...up 2.7%. Naturally, then, yearlong gainers weren't far behind. Retails outperformed.

On the negative side, banks lost 1.4%. Stocks with big yearlong losses (largely banks) were hurt. Yesterday's losers were flat.

Feb 1: The Dow gained 1.2%, Nasdaq 1.1%. Separation between groups was 4.2%.

Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were strongest today...up 3.7%. Metals, mining, and oils gained nicely. Last week's losers reversed, and yearlong winners continued upwards.

On the negative side, stocks that closed near their highs in the previous session lost .5%. Banks were flat. Non volatiles lagged. Yearlong losers did not impress.

Jan 30 (Sat): We've got our data for the month of January. We had the market down 2.6%.

Stocks that stepped into the month with big losses in the fourth quarter were strongest...up 8.4%. Not surprisingly then, banks and yearlong losers also fared well. Volatile stocks and cheap stocks gained nicely. Fairly stereotypical January behavior.

On the negative side, semiconductors were victimized...down 9.2%. Stocks with large quarterly and/or yearlong gains were hurt. Metals and mining stocks did not impress.

Jan 29: The Dow lost .5%, Nasdaq 1.4%. Separation between groups was a surprisingly weak 2.3%...stocks moved in unison.

We didn't identify any groups that actually made money today, though stocks with short term averages well below their long term averages nearly broke even (down less than .1%). Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session held up well. Non-volatiles beat the market.

Stocks with strong performances last Monday (up at least 3.6%) were weakest today...down 2.3%. Oils and metals and mining stocks were hurt. Yesterday's big gainers reversed. Volatiles lost in excess of the market.

The smallest of small caps were by far the strongest stocks today, gaining 1.2%. Stocks with large losses over the last three months finished with small gains. Stocks that closed near their lows in the previous session avoid major losses.

On the negative side, volatiles were weakest...down 2.9%. Stocks with large gains over the last month tended to reverse in a significant way. Semiconductors and oils were victimized.

The above trends are negative for the next session, though Friday markets are more likely to reverse than the other four.

A proprietary indicator ("pave") led the way in "predicting" gains...stocks showing a particularly low value gained as much as 2.6%. Banks and insurers outperformed. Mid-caps rebounded from weakness in the previous session.

On the negative side, metals and mining and oil interests were weakest...down .6%. Volatiles were weak...a negative sign for the next session, somewhat balanced out by the positivity in today's general market.

Jan 26: The Dow was flat, Nasdaq lost .3%. We had the market down .7%. Separation between groups was 2.5%.

Stocks that closed well above their lows in the previous session were strongest today...up .8%. Those with strong volume in the previous session fared well. Semiconductors finished with minimal losses.

Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours were weakest...down 1.7%. Mid-caps did not impress.

Jan 25: Both the Dow and Nasdaq gained .2%. Separation between groups was 2.6%.

One of our proprietary indicators ("vstdev") led the way in "predicting" gains...stocks with a high value gained as much as 1.4%. Metals, mining, and oils beat the market. Last Friday's losers tended to reverse in excess of the market.

On the negative side, stocks with a high "perceived risk" value (a combination of volatility and cheapness) were weakest...down 1%. Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours did not impress.

Jan 22: The Dow lost 2.1%, Nasdaq 2.7%. We had the market down 1.7%. Separation between groups was 2.7%...a small figure considering the minor turmoil of the last few sessions.

The smallest of small caps held up best today...down a mere .7%. They could be victimized on Monday, however. Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last year fared well. Retails and transportation-related equities beat the market.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session were weakest...down 3.3%. Semiconductors were hurt. Stocks with strong performances over the last month to year lost in excess of the market.

Jan 21: The Dow lost 2%, Nasdaq 1.1%. Separation between groups was a relatively large 5.5%.

Banks were the clear winners today...up 1.6%. Stocks with large yearlong losses (mostly banks) were a distant second.

On the negative side, metals and mining stocks suffered in a big way...down 3.9%. Stocks with large losses over the last week continued downward, while stocks with large yearlong gains were also weak.

The above trends are slightly negative for the next session...Fridays have a tendency to reverse the trends of the week. Also, we appreciate the fact that volatile stocks were not represented amongst today's list of major losers.

Stocks with big yearlong losses were strongest today...up 1.3%. At the same time, stocks with strong gains over the last week continued upward. Cheap stocks fared well. Banks round out the list of winners.

On the negative side, stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were weakest...down 2.1%. Naturally, then, stocks with large yearlong gains weren't far behind. Metals did not impress.

The above trends are only slightly negative for the next session...we're pleased to see some evidence of risk-taking behavior despite the general losses.

Jan 19: The Dow gained 1.1%, Nasdaq 1.4%. Separation between groups was 3.4%.

Stocks with high or negative p/e ratios were strongest today...up 3%. Stocks that closed well below their highs in the previous session fared well. Volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, we identified only one group that actually lost money...free agents fell .3%. Stocks with a high "leadership" ranking were weak. Transportation-related stocks did not impress.

Jan 17 (Sun): We've got our data for the first half of the month. We had the market up 3.3%.

The market unfolded in typical early January fashion. Stocks with a high "perceived risk" value were strongest, gaining 14.9%. Stocks with big losses over the previous three months fared well. Volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, semiconductors were weakest, losing about 1.5%. Stocks with middling p/e ratios and/or prices tended to underperform. Retails did not impress.

Only a handful of groups finished with gains today. Stocks with high book value relative to price were strongest...up .5%. Stocks in the leisure sector (movies, hotels, gambling, etc.) managed to avoid losses. Oddly, cheap stocks and volatiles held up well.

On the negative side, stocks with weakness over the last week lost as much as 2.3%. Semiconductors did not impress. Last Tuesday's losers repeated. Stocks with large gains over the last year suffered in excess of the market.

Stocks with large yearlong losses were strongest today...up 2.9%. Not surprisingly, then, banks followed closely. Cheap stocks and free agents outperformed.

Jan 13: The Dow gained .5%, Nasdaq 1.1%. Separation between groups was a mere 2%.

Volatile stocks were strongest today...up 2.4%. REIT's gained nicely. Cheap stocks fared well. Stocks with large gains over the last year round out the list of winners.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money today. Stocks held by large numbers of institutions (relative to market cap) were relatively weak, gaining a mere .5%. The smallest of small caps did not impress. Stocks with strong volume over the last two weeks tended to lag.

We didn't identify any groups that actually gained, though retail stocks almost broke even. Non-volatiles fared well.

Stocks trading well above their most prominent resistance levels were weakest...down 2.9%. Stocks with big gains over the last month reversed. Oils were weak.

Jan 11: The Dow gained .4%, Nasdaq lost .2%. Separation between groups was 3.5%.

Stocks with a high combination of volatility and cheapness ("perceived risk") were strongest today...up 2.4%. Stocks with big losses (at least 24%) last quarter fared well. At the same time, stocks with nice gains last week continued the trend. Biotechs outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks with big losses last Tuesday lost 1.1%. Banks and oils followed. Stocks with big gains over the last quarter or year underperformed.

Stocks with short term averages well below their longer averages were strongest today...up 2.1%. At the same time, yesterday's big winners repeated. Volatile stocks were strong. Small caps and cheap stocks round out the list.

On the negative side, stocks with weakness in this time slot last year lost .6%. Banks were weak. Dividend payers did not impress.

Jan 7: The Dow gained .3%, Nasdaq was flat. We had the market up 1%! Separation between groups was 4.8%.

Cheap stocks led the way today...up 4.3%. Stocks with big yearlong losses (at least 40%) fared well. Banks made a nice move. Volatile stocks round out the list.

On the negative side, utilities actually lost money...down .5%. Non-volatiles lagged.

Bearing in mind that Fridays tend to reverse the trends of the week, the above patterns are positive for the next session.

Stocks trading well above their five day averages were strongest today...up 2.2%. Metals and mining stocks fared well, with oils following. Yesterday's winners won again.

On the negative side, yesterday's losers led the way...down 1.6%. Small caps underperformed.

Jan 5: The Dow lost .1%, Nasdaq was flat. Separation between groups was 3.9%.

Stocks that were strong this time last year repeated the performance...up 2.1%. Those with large gains over the last year continued upwards. Oils fared well. Large caps outperformed.

On the negative side, banks were weak...down 1.9%. Small caps were weak. Yearlong losers did not impress. Stocks with weak volume yesterday round out the list.

Jan 4: The Dow gained 1.5%, Nasdaq 1.7%. We had the market up 2.2%. Separation between groups was 4.3%.

Stocks trading well below their 100 day averages were strongest today...up a sweet 5.2%. Last week's big losers reversed. Oils fared well. Stocks with strong performances at this time last year repeated the performance.

We didn't identify any groups that actually lost money. REITs were weakest, gaining a mere .5%. Utilities lagged, as they tend to do in strongly positive sessions. Non-volatiles in general were weak.

Jan 1: We have our data for December. Our own take on the market had it up 6.4%.

Semiconductors were strongest for the month, something we haven't seen for quite a while...up 13.5%. Stocks with a strong tendency to gain in the afterhours fared well. Stocks that stepped into the month trading well below their 20 day averages reversed. Volatiles outperformed.

On the negative side, large caps were weakest...up a mere 2%. Banks closed out a rotten year with a rotten month. Non-volatiles could not keep up with the market.

We have our data for 2009. Our own take on the market had it up a big 42% for the year!

Stocks trading well below their 100 day averages entering the year turned around and came out on top as the year's big winners...up as much as 170%. Volatile stocks finished a close second. Stocks that took a beating in 2008 and cheap stocks in general beat the market by big margins. Banks dominated losers...down 24% for the year. Stocks with strong 2008 performances (up at least 25%) finished the year with small losses.

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