Oct 3:  Both the Dow and Nasdaq lost 1.5%.  Things were uglier from our perch...down 2.7%.  Separation between groups was a relatively mellow 3.9%.

We didn't identify any groups that avoided losses today.  Stocks with low volume on Thursday held up well...down 1%.  Insurance companies avoided large losses.  Large caps outperformed.  Non-volatiles fared well.

On the negative side, REIT's were burned...down 4.7%.  Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last year underperformed.  Volatiles were weak.

The above trends are negative for the next session.

Oct 2:  The Dow lost 3.2%, Nasdaq 4.5%.  Our own take on the market had it down 5.1%.  Separation between groups was 9.6%.

We didn't identify any groups that gained today.  Regional banks were strongest...down a mere 1.2%.  Non-volatiles held up well.  Small, illiquid stocks avoided huge losses.  Biotechs and medical technology stocks fared well. 

Stocks with large, if not extreme, losses over the last week were weakest...down as much as 10.8%!  Oils were hammered again.  Volatiles suffered.  Stocks with large losses over anywhere from one to three months underperformed the market.

The above trends are negative for the next session.  However, as we've made a point of saying lately:  our analysis system breaks down following extreme changes in the market.

Oct 1:  The Dow lost .2%, Nasdaq 1.1%.  Our own take on the market had it down 1%...small caps were weak.  Separation between groups was 9.4%.

Banking stocks were the clear winners today...up 4.2%.  Stocks that closed well below yesterday's highs fared well.  Yearlong losers outperformed.

On the negative side, stocks that closed well above their highs in the previous session were quite weak...down 5.2%.  The next biggest loser lost a mere 3.6%.  Oils continued to drop.  Stocks with nice gains over the last week reversed.  Yesterday's big winners were particularly weak.

The above trends are slightly negative as indicators of the next session.

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We've got our data for the third quarter.  Despite all the volatility, crises, and losses in the large indices, our own take on the market had it down a mere .3% for the period!  Small caps held up well.

Banking stocks were the clear winners...up 30.5%.  Stocks coming off a weak Q2 (largely banking stocks) prospered. 

Stocks trading well over their prime resistance levels were weakest...down as much as 32%. Oils stocks followed closely.  Stocks with large gains over anywhere from one month to one year tended to reverse direction. 

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We've got our data for the month of September.  Our own take had it down 7.9%...quite a bit less than we had expected.

Despite the large general losses, a few groups managed gains over the month.  Regional banks led the way...up as much as 12.5%.  Stocks with a strong tendency to mirror the behaviors of other stocks (a "follower", as opposed to a "free agent") fared well.

The action, of course, was on the negative side of the market.  One of our proprietary indicators ("big_pslice") predicted losses as high as 20.5%.  Not far behind were oils, followed by metal and mining stocks.  Volatiles and cheap stocks were quite weak.  Stocks with big yearlong gains (largely oils) underperformed the market.

Historically, September has been the weakest month for the market.  Of course, recent economic and political developments tend to wash out seasonal trends, but we shouldn't lose sight of them entirely.  While this September's negativity isn't entirely unexpected, the losses in yearlong winners is.  Stocks with large yearlong gains tend to outperform in September and the third quarter.

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