May 26, 2008:  We are now in the process of closing out the below test.  We will continue to sell the positions we hold, but will no longer buy new positions.  When all positions are sold, we will crunch the numbers and try to ascertain the effectiveness of this "chart-based" approach to seasonal investing.

*****

Here, we put our seasonal charts to the test, encouraged by the results of a historical test of a chart-based seasonal investment approach that we conducted.  

The format is this:  we give ourselves a hypothetical $50,000 at the beginning of May 2004.  When a stock "comes into season", as dictated by the purchase table below, we buy $1000 of it.  When it goes out of season, we sell it and record the profit or loss.  

For the sake of simplicity, we ignore commissions and taxes.  This may sound like "cheating", but 1) the general indices, to which we'd like to compare our % results, don't "pay" taxes and commissions and , 2) everybody else with a model portfolio seems to do the same thing.  To meet our $1000 purchase price with precision, we'll pretend that fractional shares can be bought in the market.

At some point, our $50,000 will be fully invested.  At that time, fresh funds will only be available as the table below directs us to sell.  For that reason, we may have to skip over certain stocks simply because we don't have the funds available for the purchase.  But we'll approach the purchases and sales perfectly mechanically...if the next stock in the list CAN be bought at the right time, it will be bought.

The table below was constructed by simply looking through all our seasonal charts and noting the periods where certain stocks seem to prosper.  The table contains a large cross section of stocks and holding periods. We'll allow ourselves to revise the table since the charts will change (slowly) over time, but we are not allowed to tinker with it retrospectively...once a stock has been purchased, there's no undoing it.

We'll be curious as to the results.  We're not operating under the assumption that this approach to seasonality is destined to make grand profits.  If profits do manifest, note that there are plenty of other charting approaches that could be tested...short term strategies come to mind (the holding periods below are not less than a month).  Another thought would be to only purchase the stocks below if they have already shown some signs that they are conforming to their expected behavior. It would also be interesting to see which sorts of stocks and charts are most amenable to this sort of strategy...those with seasonal charts constructed with the largest possible amount of historical data, or those with charts that emphasize more recent trends?  Earnings/dividend-driven stocks or more speculative issues?

The rightmost columns of the table show the stock's volatility, market capitalization, the length of the holding period, and the first year in the stock's seasonal chart.  The idea here is that at some point in the future we can attempt to answer the some of the above questions by subjecting the data to further analysis.

As of Dec 16, 2006, we had conducted 522 buy/sell transactions for a total of $532,379.  This represents a gain of $10,379 over our $50,000 starting position.  At this time last year, we had a total $6,937 profit which we added to our cash position.  Thus we'll now add $3,442 (10,379-6,937) to our portfolio.  We'll refrain from any in-depth analysis of the strategy so far, as there's simply not much data, but we should note that the S&P 500 gained about 28% over the period, and we gained about 21% with a portfolio that was fully invested in only a few months of the year.  Not bad, but not astounding either.

The current cash position stands at $53,379 plus (or minus) any profits (or losses) incurred after Dec 16, 2006.

Seasonal buy period...stock	Buy between May 2007-April 2008			Buy between May 2006-April 2007			Buy between May 2005-April 2006			Buy between May 2004-April 2005			Vol.	Cap.	Prd.	Hist.
	Purchase Price	Sell Price	$1000+Profit/Loss	Purchase Price	Sell Price	$1000+Profit/Loss	Purchase Price	Sell Price	$1000+Profit/Loss	Purchase Price	Sell Price	$1000+Profit/Loss
May 1-Jun 1...LOW	30.65	32.82	1071	63.42	62.10	979	52.10	57.05	1095	52.55	53.57	1019	1	180	1	1986
May 1-Jun 1...GIS	60.05	61.10	1017	49.30	51.77	1050	49.52	50.05	1011	48.88	46.10	943	1	60	1	1984
May 1-Jun 1...AEN	1.13	1.04	920	2.05	1.71	834				16.05	15.00	935	3	10	1	1993
May 1-Jun 1...LSCP				20.83	21.26	1021	31.85	34.40	1080	29.49	28.33	961			1	1993
May 5-Jul 1...BLTI	6.90	6.07	880	10.73	8.40	783	7.75	6.30	813	13.14	13.36	1017			1.75	1993
May 5-Jul 1...GDYS							8.05	7.39	919						1.75	1992
May 10-Jul 1...NSS				53.55	56.45	1054	30.05	32.51	1082						1.75	1991
May 15-Jun 15...HOT	69.01	71.54	1037	60.61	55.55	917	51.75	57.37	1109	38.75	44.00	1135			2	1993
May 15-Jul 5...MU	12.25	12.8	1053	15.72	15.40	980	10.61	10.21	962	13.56	14.20	1047	3	100	1.65	1993
Jun 1-Jul 1...RTI	88.86	75.88	854	59.05	57.70	977	27.39	31.40	1146				3	1	1	1991
Jun 1-Jul 1...SEBL							9.19	8.95	974	10.90	10.61	974	3	70	1	1997
Jun 1-Jul 1...OVRL	2.94	2.57	874	8.00	6.69	836	9.70	9.50	979	14.48	13.05	901	3	1	1	1998
Jun 1-Jul 5...MSC	10.65	12.30	1155	11.00	8.92	811	12.20	14.60	1197	10.35	10.60	1024	2	1	1.2	1993
Jun 1-Jul 5...COST	56.58	60.01	1061	53.10	57.50	1083	45.40	45.14	994	37.72	40.42	1072	1	150	1.2	1987
Jun 1-Jul 10...CCRD										11.34	9.82	866	3	1	1.3	1998
Jun 1-Jul 15...RMBS	18.83	17.85	948	25.59	22.07	862	15.30	13.85	905	19.31	14.81	767	4	21	1.5	1998
Jun 1-Oct 15... ABAX	23.02	25.03	1087	17.01	22.20	1305	10.42	13.57	1302	18.30	12.43	679			4.5	1993
Jun 5-Jul 15...NXTL							31.01	33.22	1071	23.30	25.26	1084	2	239	1.3	1998
Jun 10-Jul 15...CNET	9.06	8.78	969	8.92	7.45	835	10.38	11.62	1119	10.09	9.89	980	3	13	1.2	1993
Jun 25-Oct 1...ATK	98.7	109.00	1114	76.36	81.01	1061	68.00	74.65	1098	63.55	60.70	955			3.2	1993
Jul 1-Aug 15...GENZ	64.76	60.37	932	61.37	67.10	1093	59.94	70.10	1170	47.34	49.25	1040	2	138	1.5	1993
Jul 1-Aug 20...CMX				49.87	55.88	1120	44.52	46.47	1044	32.94	28.65	870	2	89	1.65	1993
Jul 1-Sep 1...MAGS	10.11	8.85	875	9.50	9.95	1047	7.82	10.30	1317	18.82	14.21	755			2
Jul 1-Sep 15...CYBX	16.96	13.84	816	21.30	17.77	834	43.29	36.72	848	32.22	21.35	663	1	81	2.5	1994
Jul 1-Oct 1...INTV	8.44	9.39	1126	7.04	6.34	900	8.76	8.93	1019				4	4	3	1991
Jul 10-Aug 10...FLS	74.50	76.48	1027	55.25	49.83	902	31.01	34.25	1104	23.30	22.10	949	2	7	1	1991
Jul 10-Sep 15...DP							48.36	55.85	1155	39.78	42.32	1063	2	4	2.2	1993
Jul 15-Aug 15...MGG	30.65	28.16	919	21.18	21.72	1025				43.35	40.35	931	2	37	1	1991
Jul 15-Aug 15...ALEX	56.44	52.05	922	41.50	41.19	995	48.80	51.53	1056	32.94	30.67	931	2	6	1	1985
Jul 15-Sep 10...GILD	39.75	37.88	953	59.71	63.30	1060	46.01	45.22	983	32.13	34.95	1088	2	231	1.75	1993
Jul 15-Dec 31...MO	71.82	75.56	1049	77.20	86.10	1153	66.64	75.15	1128	48.90	61.05	1228	1	273	5.5	1993
Jul 20- Aug 25...AMD	16.15	12.08	748	21.90	24.69	1127	20.25	20.61	1015	12.64	11.95	945	3	125	1.2	1984
Jul 20-Sep 5...HOV	16.95	12.47	736	27.34	26.55	971	72.43	60.00	828	30.53	37.15	1217			1.5	1993
Jul 25-Sep 1...AHC							118.95	128.10	1077	81.38	80.55	990			1.2	1984
Jul 25-Sep 1...MVIS	5.6	4.78	854	1.75	1.31	749	6.15	5.56	904	6.06	6.01	992			1.2	1997
Jul 25-Sep 1...APA	84.49	77.38	916	67.09	65.43	975	69.82	72.02	1032	45.77	44.75	978			1.2	1982
Jul 25-Sep 5...IDTI	16.09	15.75	979	13.75	16.58	1206	10.79	10.68	990	10.91	9.50	871	3	19	1.3	1991
Jul 25-Sep 20...VANS										20.51	20.51	1000			1.75	1993
Aug 1-Sep 1...JLG				18.06	17.55	972	31.74	32.75	1031	14.00	13.80	986	2	4	1	1991
Aug 1-Sep 1...XRX	17.35	17.00	980	14.08	14.89	1058	13.18	13.34	1012	13.70	13.38	977			1	1978
Aug 1-Sep 1...ABRX							1.11	.215	194	20.36	21.5	1056			1	1994
Aug 1-Sep 1...AAPL	133.64	140.00	1048	67.22	68.47	1019	42.60	47	1103	31.24	34.30	1098			1	1985
Aug 1-Oct 1...CAH	65.73	62.86	956	66.88	66.03	987	59.54	63.25	1062	44.10	43.78	993	4	160	2	1989
Aug 1-Oct 5...PPP	53.60	54.2	1011	44.10	40.74	924	55.03	57.69	1048	43.50	47.75	1098	2	20	2.2	1984
Aug 1-Feb 1...MSFT	28.95	31.06	1073	24.04	30.84	1283	25.82	27.96	1082	28.29	26.26	928	1	1843	7	1987
Aug 1-Mar 1...BDY	16.00	19.97	1248	10.15	19.13	1885	11.30	11.90	1053	23.53	9.75	414			8	1992
Aug 5-Sep 5...FILE				34.50	34.85	1010	28.20	27.15	963	18.15	19.62	1081	3	15	1	1991
Aug 5-Sep 5...PRX	21.45	22.43	1046	15.50	17.84	1151	24.08	24.15	1003	38.00	41.45	1091	3	33	1	1988
Aug 5-Sep 10...OLGC	1.43	1.52	1063	1.55	1.32	852	4.20	4.01	955	7.11	7.18	1010	3	1	1.2	1994
Aug 5-Sep 15...IOTN	3.11	3.24	1042	8.13	5.73	705	7.00	9.31	1333						1.3	1993
Aug 5-Oct 1...ESRX	50.43	55.20	1095	76.68	75.45	984	54.82	62.18	1134	62.26	65.61	1052	2	74	1.2	1993
Aug 5-Nov 1...DRXR										7.63	8.23	1079	5	2	2.75	1991
Aug 5-Jan 15...SEPR	30.19	29.96	992	49.49	61.74	1248	54.88	52.37	954	44.39	58.90	1327			5.3	1993
Sep 1-Oct 1...SBC							24.03	23.92	996	25.87	26.25	1017	1	196	1	1985
Sep 1-Oct 1...SCHL	34.01	34.87	1025	30.30	31.00	1023	36.34	37.00	1018	29.11	30.83	1059	1	7	1	1993
Sep 1-Oct 1...NKE	56.34	58.79	1043	80.76	86.97	1077	78.91	82.08	1040	75.00	79.00	1053	1	83	1	1988
Sep 1-Oct 1...EDO	43.52	56.03	1287	23.45	22.85	974	28.04	30.10	1073	26.25	27.90	1062	2	3	1	1993
Sep 1-Oct 1...FNF	18.22	17.46	958	40.23	41.65	1035	38.90	44.70	1149				1	29	1	1993
Sep 1-Dec 1...BBBY	34.51	31.13	902	33.80	38.93	1152	40.44	42.91	1061	37.24	40.05	1075	2	103	3	1993
Sep 15-Nov 20...CNET	7.19	7.75	1071	9.99	8.85	886	13.39	15.08	1126	9.52	8.50	893	3	13	1.8	1993
Sep 15-Dec 1...PFE	24.16	23.62	978	28.23	27.61	978	26.01	21.27	820	32.12	28.01	872	1	487	2.5	1993
Sep 15-Dec 1...ARMHY	8.43	8.17	969	6.57	7.13	1085	6.40	6.30	984	4.63	5.92	1279			2.5	1999
Sep 15-May 1...CMX				58.41	65.23	1117	49.05	45.30	924	29.50	40.50	1373	2	89	7.5	1993
Sep 20-Jan 15...ADM	33.06	44.55	1348	38.50	30.96	804	22.75	26.95	1185	16.57	22.07	1332			3.75	1984
Sep 20-Dec 1...MMM	91.23	83.43	915	73.30	81.55	1113	72.39	78.77	1088	82.15	79.50	956	1	213	2.3	1993
Sep 25-Nov 1...SEBL							10.29	10.33	1004	7.68	9.37	1220	3	69	1.2	1997
Sep 25- Nov 1...FDRY	17.75	21.00	1183	12.17	12.77	1049	12.42	11.80	950	9.95	11.97	1203	3	31	1.2	2000
Sep 25-Dec 1...DIS	34.2	33.06	967	30.29	33.05	1091	23.40	25.05	1071	23.26	26.97	1160	1	145	2.2	1993
Oct 1-Nov 1...OVRL	1.71	2.05	1199	6.55	3.90	595	8.11	8.14	1004	13.98	14.50	1037	2	1	1	1998
Oct 1-Nov 1...AAPL	154.63	188.6	1220	75.01	81.10	1081	54.16	57.24	1057	39.12	52.50	1342			1	1985
Oct 1-Nov 1...MANU							2.09	1.89	904	2.37	2.59	1092	4	3	1	1994
Oct 1-Nov 1...PG	70.44	69.22	983	61.99	63.20	1019	59.43	56.50	950	54.35	51.25	943			1	1971
Oct 1-Nov 1...GTW				1.87	1.68	898	2.73	2.85	1044	4.95	5.91	1194	4	10	1	1994
Oct 1-Nov 1...ECSI										11.59	11.32	977			1	1998
Oct 1-Nov 15...CGNX	17.71	20.92	1181	25.20	24.98	991	30.01	30.74	1024	26.41	26.30	996	3	16	1.5	1990
Oct 1-Nov 20...BRCM	36.62	28.60	781	30.43	35.00	1150	47.50	48.41	1019	27.76	30.42	1096	3	318	1.65
Oct 1-Nov 20...CCRD										9.11	8.87	974	3	1	1.65	1998
Oct 1-Nov 20...KO	57.61	62.52	1085	44.90	47.11	1049	43.21	42.32	979	40.48	39.90	986	1	241	1.65	1993
Oct 1-Dec 1...GPS	18.44	20.19	1095	19.13	18.73	979	17.56	17.33	987	18.97	22	1160	2	116	2	1988
Oct 1-Dec 1...CIEN	38.32	44.05	1150	27.28	25.15	922	2.70	3.00	1111	1.99	2.59	1302			2	1998
Oct 1-Dec 1...AKAM	28.8	37.65	1307	50.00	48.66	973	15.96	20.18	1209	13.97	12.86	921	4	46	2	2000
Oct 1-Dec 1...FDC				23.07	25.05	1086	39.83	43.61	1095	43.53	41.32	949	1	127	2	1993
Oct 1-Dec 1...MTSN	8.81	8.25	936	8.27	9.57	1157	7.49	10.00	1335	7.77	9.53	1227	4	3	2	1995
Oct 1-Dec 1...HLT				28.00	33.02	1179	22.34	22.08	988	19.00	20.74	1091	1	26	2	1992
Oct 1-Dec 1...CNXT	1.20	1.10	917	2.00	2.17	1085	1.79	2.49	1391	1.63	1.97	1209	7	24	2	2000
Oct 1-Dec 1...MXIM				28.29	31.6	1117	43.11	36.86	855	42.93	41.16	959	2	264	2	1991
Oct 1-Dec 1...KMB	70.67	69.81	988	65.28	66.64	1021	59.51	59.28	996	64.99	62.78	970	1	87	2	1987
Oct 1-Dec 1...ALU	9.94	8.10	815	2.33	2.55	1094	3.26	2.81	862	3.20	3.99	1247	3	112	2	1997
Oct 1-Dec 1...MESA	4.45	3.75	843	7.77	8.18	1053	8.35	10.33	1237	5.24	6.93	1323	3	3	2	1993
Oct 1-Dec 1...PDII	10.54	9.66	835	11.49	10.14	883	15.30	12.53	819	27.04	23.07	853	3	2	2	1999
Oct 1-Dec 1...CTXS	39.38	36.81	935	36.24	28.70	792	25.00	27.30	1092	17.83	23.73	1331	2	39	2	1996
Oct 1-Dec 31...SHLM	19.69	21.05	1018	23.43	22.45	958	17.92	21.62	1206	22.07	21.37	968	1	3	3	1987
Oct 1-Dec 31...NUE	59.47	60.44	1016	49.80	54.66	1098	58.95	68	1154	46	51.39	1117	2	105	3	1983
Oct 1-Jan 15...KRON				33.99	36.27	1067	44.57	37.94	851	44.46	47.36	1065			3.5	1993
Oct 1-Feb 15...KLAC	55.98	41.22	738	44.61	50.32	1128	48.83	53.37	1093	42.42	46.19	1089	3	253	4.5	1992
Oct 1-May 1...AMTD	18.19	18.15	998	18.77	17.13	913	21.45	18.63	869	12.09	10.40	860	3	51	7	1998
Oct 5-Nov 5...TIVO	7.15	6.69	936	6.61	6.11	924	5.22	5.67	1086	6.75	6.36	942	4	10	1	2000
Oct 5-Nov 5...PWAV	6.23	5.27	846	7.62	6.24	819	12.20	13.05	1070	6.77	7.80	1152	4	11	1	1998
Oct 5-Nov 5...BLDP	5.03	5.42	1078	5.48	6.72	1226	5.95	4.77	802	7.78	7.36	946			1	1996
Oct 5-Nov 15...LSI	7.41	6.10	823	8.17	10.59	1296	9.31	7.79	837	4.53	4.81	1062	3	19	1.3	1991
Oct 5-Nov 25...NXTL										25.05	28.57	1141	2	239	1.65	1998
Oct 5-Dec 1...AMD	13.41	9.82	732	24.80	21.30	859	24.56	26.55	1081	13.21	21.6	1635	3	125	1.8	1984
Oct 5-Dec 1...NOVL	7.67	6.95	906	6.05	6.36	1051	7.45	7.82	1050	no cash for purchases			4	44	1.8	1989
Oct 5-Dec 1...LTXX	3.83	2.40	627	4.87	5.25	1078	4.27	4.51	1061	no cash for purchases			4	5	1.8	1991
Oct 5-Dec 1...EPIC	13.5	10.82	801	13.27	13.31	1003	12.73	13.95	1096	no cash for purchases			4	4	1.8	1995
Oct 5-Dec 5...FILE				no cash for purchases			28.20	27.70	982	no cash for purchases			4	14	2	1991
Oct 5-Dec 5...CSCO	32.33	27.44	849	no cash for purchases			17.68	17.57	994	no cash for purchases			2	996	2	1991
Oct 5-Dec 5...SSYS	28.61	24.54	858	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases					2	1995
Oct 5-Dec 5...SIGM	53.00	68.32	1289	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			4	2	2	1993
Oct 5-Dec 5...MER	76.09	58.00	762	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			1	259	2	1993
Oct 5-Dec 5...JAVA	23.2	20.79	896	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			3	117	2	1988
Oct 5-Dec 5...AMGN	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			1	476	2	1985
Oct 5-Dec 10...GLW	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			3	101	2.2	1982
Oct 5-Dec 15...GE	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			1	710	2.3	1993
Oct 5-Dec 15...AWA	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			3	5	2.3	1995
Oct 5-Dec 25...MWD	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			1	218	1.65	1998
Oct 5-Dec 31...COA	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			2	1	2.8	1988
Oct 5-Dec 31...NTAP	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			3	91	2.8	1996
Oct 5-Jan 5...OI	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			2	11	3	1992
Oct 5-Feb 1...IDCC	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			3	9	3.8	1991
Oct 5-Feb 1...ALD	no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases			no cash for purchases	&nb