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The table below details the results of adhering to the following strategy: Look at the results of the last market session and search through historical data to find the market session that is the best "copy" of the last market session. Then, look one market session forward in our historical data, and choose the indicators that best predicted gains and losses in that session. We then apply those indicators to the upcoming market.

To repeat, in a more concrete way, assume it's February 15, 2003, and the market has finished for the day. As usual, we use our software to find the indicators that best predicted gains and losses on the February 15th session. We then search historical data for the day that seems to best match the current session. Let's say that March 11, 1996 is the best match. We then look at the market session that followed March 11, 1996. It happens to be March 12, 1996. We look at the indicators that best predicted gains and losses on March 12, 1996. Operating on the assumption that the market will evolve in the same way that it did in March of 1996, we apply March 12, 1996's best long and short indicators to the upcoming (Feb 16, 2003) market.

Just to confuse you, we should point out that the data in our tables that is stamped with the date "960311" actually gives the results for the "960312" session, and "960312" data gives the results of the "960313" session.  As always with our tables, the date on the table tells you the date on which our indicators were current, not the date of the gains and losses that ensued.  If you still find this confusing, not to worry...the main point is to match current results to historical results, move forward one historical session, and look at the best indicators for that session.  

After the 3rd of September, we included the score that we assigned to the date that best mirrors the current session.  That way, if we so desired, we could examine the strategy of using historical data to predict tomorrow's session only if the score is high.

The table below, in contrast to other tables that detail the results of our tests, shows only gains and losses in terms of daily percentage gains, as opposed to beginning with, say, $1000 and adding or subtracting figures on a daily basis.  

The experiment began at the open of the July 23, 2003 market session and ended Oct 31, 2003 (a total of 70 market days).  The long choices totaled a 23.33% gain over the period (26% compounded), while the market totaled 12.43% over the period.  The shorts lost 10.58%, meaning that they performed slightly better than what would be expected in this positive market.

Though our test shows positive results, one should remain a bit skeptical as to the possibility of a casual investor (i.e. not a market maker or institution) applying them to the market, where bid/ask spreads and commissions become important in short-term trades.  On the other hand, the exercise is far from fruitless.  Short-term traders can use every advantage they can get.  Even for longer term traders, why not enter a trade at the most auspicious moment you can discern?  Finally, the positive results here could point the way toward using a similar approach when dealing with longer time frames.

We may resume this sort of test in the future, with a variation or two.

Strategy

Long result (%)

Short result (%)

Market result(%)

July 23...buy industry groups 44-54 (4), sell "gain1" (10) (best match = 960308)

0.377

-0.094

0.324

July 24...buy "marketcap" (1), sell industry groups 70-75 (7) (best match = 980305)

0.395 

0.93 

-0.17

July 25...buy "big_pslice" (10), sell "close-low" (10) (best match = 980123) 

1.31 

-1.14 

0.81 

July 28...buy industry groups 67-74 (7), sell "3monthgain" (1) (best match = 941111)

1.23 

-.887 

.767 

July 29...buy "high-close" (10), sell "pkurt" (5)  (best match = 980116) 

-.079

.191

-.164

July 30...buy "vstdev" (10), sell "vtotal" (9) (best match = 940915)

-1.39

.379

-.301

July 31...buy "high-close" (10), sell "gain3" (10) (best match = 990208)

2.14

-.443

.627

August 1...buy "1monthgain" (10), sell "vstock_ind" (10) (best match = 990114)

-1.34

1.496

-1.34

August 4...buy "high-close" (10), sell "high-close" (1) (best match = 020812)

-.56

.779

-.49

August 5...buy "pskew" (10), sell "close-low" (10) (best match = 940329)

-1.416

2.11

-1.451

August 6...buy "marketcap" (10), sell "moving_ave100" (10) (best match = 940328)

-.22

2.124

-.54

August 7...buy "pstdev" (3), sell industry 68-75 (7) (best match =  951002)

.359

.81

-.087

August 8...buy "slice3" (1), sell vstdev (10) (best match = 000505)

.57

.432

.167

August 11...buy "pstdev" (3), sell industry 68-75 (7) (best match =  951002)

.309

-1.81

.966

August 12...buy industry 51-61 (4), sell industry 66-72 (6) (best match = 001122)

1.79

-2.083

1.44

August 13...buy "ptot-neg" (1), sell "t_pratio" (10) (best match = 970403)

.555

-.541

.134

August 14...buy "gain3" (9), sell "1monthgain" (1) (best match = 030711)

.647

-.694

.706

August 15...buy "mov_ave20" (1), sell "close-low" (10) (best match = 941117)

.644

-.331

.234

August 18...buy "gain2" (1), sell "stock_ind" (4) (best match = 981207)

1.517

-2.126

1.528

August 19...buy industries 18-38 (2), sell industries 66-73 (6) (best match = 030312)

1.61

-2.24

1.33

August 20...buy "stdev" (10), sell "recent_price" (7) (best match = 990105)

.439

.085

.253

August 21...buy industry 69-75 (7), sell "big_pslice" (2) (best match = 981231)

1.939

-.989

1.029

August 22...buy "stdev" (10), sell industry 1-18 (1) (best match = 011204)

-1.58

1.686

-1.424

August 25...buy "yeargain" (1), sell "recent price" (4) (best match = 021101)

-.16

.225

-.367

August 26...buy "pstdev" (2), sell industry 66-73 (6) (best match = 030115)

.199

-.588

.421

August 27...buy "vstdev" (10), sell "t_vratio" (9) (best match = 931122)

1.876

-.786

.826

August 28...buy "ptotal" (9), sell "stdev" (8) (best match = 030725)

.962

-1.449

.996

August 29...buy "recent_price" (1), sell "marketcap" (10) (best match  = 021120)

.531

-.607

.445

Sep 2...buy "momentum" (2), sell "slice97" (1) (best match = 000510)

1.552

-1.625

1.67

Sep 3...buy "high-close" (10), sell "pave" (1) (best match = 020411)

.757

-.891

.692

Sep 4...buy "open-yclose" (1), sell "marketcap" (10) (best match = 970825 (27))

.792

-.357

.507

Sep 5...buy "yeargain" (10), sell industries 1-18 (1)...best match = 000616 (40))

-.153

.637

-.52

Sep 8...buy "yeargain" (1), sell "recent_price" (4) (best match = 021101 (31))

1.873

-1.619

1.393

Sep 9...buy "marketcap" (1), sell "gain3" (10) (best match = 030708 (51))

-.357

.314

-.568

Sep 10...buy "stdev" (1), sell "close-low" (10) (best match = 000427 (27))

-.935

3.122

-2.067

Sep 11...buy "momentum" (1), sell "marketcap" (1) (best match = 030716 (37))

1.917

-.94

.926

Sep 12...buy "high-close" (10), sell "gain2" (1) (best match = 011220 (49))

1.21

-.565

.322

Sep 15...buy "yeargain" (5), sell "vstock_ind" (3) (best match = 980507)

0.025

.033

-.039

Sep 16...buy "yeargain" (10), sell "close-low" (10)...best match = 020522 (21))

2.18

-1.105

1.285

Sep 17...buy industries 51 through 61 (4), sell "gain1" (10) (best match = 010711 (37))

.28

-0.353

-0.0375

Sep 18...buy "break_ave" (10), sell industries 1-18 (1) (best match = 000204 (29))

note...due to data feed problems related to hurricane Isabel, we must skip the 18th and 19th

 

 

Sep 22...buy "high-close" (10), sell "high-close" (1) best match = 030630 (27))

-1.27

.930

-1.08

Sep 23...buy "big_pslice" (10), sell "yeargain" (1) (best match = 011212 (35))

.852

-.359

.939

Sep 24...buy "gain3" (1), sell "marketcap" (10) (best match = 950726 (32))

-2.002

2.332

-1.739

Sep 25...buy "mov_ave5" (1), sell "high-close" (1) (best match = 000509 (52))

-2.935

1.513

-2.002

Sep 26...buy "mov_ave5" (1), sell "gain2" (7) (best match = 950718 (49))

-2.769

1.425

-1.717

Sep 29...buy "high-close" (10), sell "gain3" (10) (best match = 990208 (51))

2.555

-.637

1.144

Sep 30...buy "stdev" (3), sell "stdev" (10) (best match = 000808 (36))

-.43

1.573

-.686

Oct 1...buy "pstdev" (3), sell "vstdev" (10) (best match = 001124 (36))

2.615

-2.683

2.323

Oct 2...buy "marketcap" (10), sell "marketcap" (1) (best match = 030324 (39))

0.429

-.645

.535

Oct 3...buy "stdev" (1), sell industries 66-72 (best match = 000906 (24))

.614

-3.429

1.447

Oct 6...buy "recent price" (1), sell "momentum" (10) (best match = 001227 (43))

1.6704

-1.327

.861

Oct 7...buy "break_ave" (10), sell industries 1 through 17 (best match = 000204 (37))

.678

-.619

.69

Oct 8...buy "ptotal" (9), sell "stdev" (8) (best match = 030725 (42))

-.627

.681

-.471

Oct 9...buy "high-close" (10), sell "recent price" (10) (best match = 020523 (18))

1.238

-.467

.727

Oct 10...buy "mov_ave20" (1), sell "close - low" (10) (best match = 950331 (27))

-.221

.408

-.233

Oct 13...buy industries 1-17, sell "ptot_neg" (1) (best match = 960815 (22))

1.14

-1.803

1.40

Oct 14...buy "momentum" (1), sell "close-low" (10) (best match = 970819 (50))

.782

-1.240

.659

Oct 15...buy "ptotal" (10), sell "vstdev" (1) (best match = 020102 (38))

-.16

.306

-.579

Oct 16...buy "vstdev" (2), sell "vstdev" (10) (best match = 021226 (13))

.305

-.673

.378

Oct 17...buy "momentum" (1), sell "gain1" (10) (best match = 940413 (22))

-1.844

1.714

-1.44

Oct 20...buy "stdev" (10), sell industries 1-18 (1) (best match = 000718 (51))

-.22

-.06

.083

Oct 21...buy "pstdev" (1), sell "mov_ave100" (10) (best match = 030924 (21))

-.05

-1.501

.558

Oct 22...buy industries 1-18, sell 66-72 (best match = 000913 (34))

-1.116

3.197

-1.80

Oct 23...buy industries 92-101, sell "stdev" (10) (best match = 020826 (45))

-.060

1.874

-.450

Oct 24...buy "vtotal" (10), sell "t_vratio" (1) (best match = 030925 (35))

-.411

.702

-.57

Oct 27...buy "pstdev" (1), sell "stdev" (10) (best match = 030923 (18))

.628

-2.13

1.25

Oct 28...buy industries 1-18, sell "yeargain" (1) (best match = 010810 (40))

.722

-1.40

1.69

Oct 29..buy recent price (1), sell industries 1-18 (best match = 030523 (50))

1.36

-.81

.969

Oct 30...buy "recent price" (1), sell "open-yclose" (5) (best match = 030509 (34))

.091

-.16

-.057

Oct 31...buy "mov_ave5" (1), sell "mov_ave5" (8) (best match = 030822 (23))

-.029

.519

-.05

 

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