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Seasonal Investment Strategies:  Monthly Test
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The following two tables examine the strategy of looking back to the best strategy for the same month in the previous year, and applying that strategy to the upcoming month.  For example, below you see that the best strategy for Feb 1999 (NOT 2000) was to buy the top 80-90% of stocks ranked by our "marketcap" statistic, and the best short strategy was to sell the 10-20% most volatile stocks (stocks with relatively low volatility).  We then applied that strategy to February 2000.  Then we move on to the next month.

The first table shows gains via a risk-adjusted strategy.  The second ignores risk adjustment.  The difference between the two strategies is rather dramatic, and strongly indicates that a risk-adjusted approach is the one for our system.  For more on the topic of risk-adjustment, scan our "method of presentation" page.

"Market in General" is drawn from our universe of about 3000 stocks.  The makeup is roughly the same as the Russell 3000, but it doesn't weight stocks (in the Russell 3000, big caps are "heavier" than small caps).  Surprisingly, our "Market in General" actually eked out a gain over the period of the experiment, a choppy one for indexes like the Dow.  That's because small caps didn't do so poorly during the period.  Looking at the real Russell 3000, it lost about 37% over the period.

After December of 2004, we decided to ignore industry groupings for consideration in the table below.  That's simply because we've found the approach to produce mediocre results on numerous occasions.  Thus, if last year's best gaining group in February was biotechs, we'd look to the second best gaining group as a predictor of gains in the next February.

After generating this page, we decided to look back further in time and test more risk-adjusted data.  Click here for the results from May 1994 through Jan 2000.  The results are impressive.  To calculate results from May 1994 to present (as opposed to Feb 2000 to present), multiply the most current results  in the blue table below (long, short, and general market) by 3.703, .748, and 1.942.  As of Aug 31, 2003, we've outperformed our "Market in General" by a factor of 4.0 ($13053 vs. $3257), and the Russell 3000 by a factor of 5.9.  The shorts stand at $951.

Our experiment begins with longs, shorts, and the "Market in General" investing $1000.

Month...buy/sell strategy (risk adjusted)

Long gain

Short gain

Market in General

Feb 2000...buy 80-90 percentile of "marketcap", sell 10-20% "stdev"

1119

1069

1079

Mar 2000...buy top 10% of "ptot_neg", sell 50-60 percentile of "t_pratio"

1080

1034

1126

Apr 2000...buy 10-20 percentile "break_ave", sell top 10% "mov_ave5"

1097

1087

1111

May 2000...buy 10-20 percentile of cheapest stocks, sell top 10% "break_ave"

1065

1198

1061

June 2000...buy highest "yeargain", sell lowest "stdev"

1392

1174

1146

July 2000...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell highest 5 day moving ave

1460

1256

1148

Aug 2000...buy highest 10% of 3monthgain, sell 10-20 percentile of stdev

1580

1220

1230

Sep 2000...buy top 80-90 percentile of mov_ave100, sell lowest 10% of stdev

1636

1179

1218

Oct 2000...buy 80-90 percentile of marketcap, sell 50-60 percentile of vstdev

1516

1176

1146

Nov 2000...buy highest 10% of yeargain, sell lowest 10% of stdev

1198

1163

1148

Dec 2000...buy highest 3monthgain, sell lowest vstdev

1285

1080

1230

Jan 2001...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell top 10% of break_ave

1850

1170

1282

Feb 2001...buy highest 10% 3monthgain, sell 10-20 percentile of stdev

1751

1153

1202

March 2001...buy lowest 10% of 3monthgain, sell highest 10% of 1monthgain

1465

1196

1129

April 2001...buy lowest 10% of stdev, sell 10% most expensive stocks

1501

1129

1253

May 2001...buy 80-90 percentile of "big_pslice", sell top 10% of yeargain

1673

1059

1345

Jun 2001...buy highest 10% of stdev, sell 80-90% of vslice3

1673

1052

1361

Jul 2001...buy lowest 10% of stdev, sell highest 10% yeargain

1677

1053

1329

Aug 2001...buy top 10% yeargain, sell lowest 10% stdev

1602

1038

1300

Sep 2001...buy lowest 10% stdev, sell lowest 10% of "break_ave"

1524

1219

1148

Oct 2001...buy 30-40 percentile "ptot_neg", sell top 10% "ptot_neg"

1630

1089

1280

Nov 2001...buy 10-20 percentile stdev, sell top 10% yeargain

1713

1026

1414

Dec 2001...buy lowest 10% stdev, sell top 10% of "close-low"

1764

913

1510

Jan 2002...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell highest 10% of "break_ave"

1827

952

1495

Feb 2002...buy lowest 10% of vstdev, sell highest 10% of vstdev

1883

1050

1491

Mar 2002...buy lowest 10% marketcap, sell top 10% most expensive stocks

2100

1005

1630

Apr 2002...buy lowest 10% 3monthgain, sell 80-90 percentile mov_ave20

1871

1012

1603

May 2002...buy lowest 10% of marketcap, sell top 10% of marketcap

1840

1038

1550

Jun 2002...buy lowest 10% "pkurt", sell highest 10% of marketcap

1792

1157

1460

Jul 2002...buy lowest 10% of marketcap, sell highest 10% of 5 day moving ave

1613

1362

1270

Aug 2002...buy lowest 10% of vstdev, sell lowest 10% of ptotal

1608

1350

1267

Sep 2002...buy  highest 10% vtotal, sell 30-40 percentile yeargain

1514

1515

1145

Oct 2002...buy highest 10% vstdev, sell lowest vstdev

1801

1529

1199

Nov 2002...buy lowest 3monthgain, sell highest 10% break_ave

2400

1486

1349

Dec 2002...buy highest "big_pslice", sell highest 10% "marketcap"

2283

1603

1264

Jan 2003...buy lowest 10% marketcap, sell highest 10% vave

2195

1671

1214

Feb 2003...buy lowest 10% of "stdev", sell lowest 10% of "ptotal"

2220

1752

1185

Mar 2003...buy lowest 10% of "stdev", sell highest 10% of "break_ave"

2241

1757

1194

Apr 2003...buy lowest 10% "marketcap", sell lowest 10% "break_ave"

2577

1540

1316

May 2003...buy lowest 10% "close-low", sell highest 10% "gain1"

2849

1271

1480

June 2003...buy lowest 10% "marketcap", sell highest 10% "marketcap"

3034

1256

1521

July 2003...buy highest 10% "high-close", sell 10-20% "high-close"

3347

1217

1600

August 2003...buy 50-60% "marketcap", sell lowest 10% "marketcap"

3525

1158

1677

September 2003...buy highest 10% "yeargain", sell 10-20% "break_ave"

3501

1147

1665

Oct 2003...buy lowest 10% of mov_ave20, sell industries 92-101

3853

1098

1789

Nov 2003...buy  lowest 10% of "yeargain", sell lowest 10% "vave"

3955

1053

1849

Dec 2003...buy lowest 10% "stdev", sell highest 10% "mov_ave20"

4049

1053

1890

Jan 2004...buy lowest 10% of "recent_price", sell industries 18-38

4527

1055

1962

Feb 2004...buy lowest 10% of "stdev", sell industries 18 through 36

4644

1032

1987

Mar 2004...buy industries 52 through 61, sell industries 89 to 92

4647

1033

1992

Apr 2004...buy mov_ave20[1], sell industries 1 through 17

4438

1055

1909

May 2004...buy recent price[1], sell break_ave[9] 4428 1047 1933
Jun 2004...buy gain1[1], sell industries 86 through 91 4591 1019 1998
Jul 2004...buy high-close[10], sell industries 1 through 17 4172 1019 1877
Aug 2004...buy inds 66-72, sell industries 86 -91 4012 993 1868
Sep 2004...buy recent_price[1], sell break-ave[10] 4168 956 1940
Oct 2004...buy ProfitMargin[10], sell prd_lastyear[1] 4286 961 1983
Nov 2004...buy industries 92 thru 101, sell prd_lastyear[8] 4526 895 2131
Dec 2004...buy industries 1 thru 17, sell resist2[10] 4507 873 2210
Jan 2005...buy recent_price[1], sell break_ave[10] 4054 895 2116
Feb 2005...buy stdev[1], sell stdev[10] 4081 907 2144
March 2005...buy NumInstitution[6], sell marketcap[10] 3985 930 2087
Apr 2005...buy corr[1], sell stdev[1] 3717 949 1978
May 2005...buy corr[10], sell marketcap[1] 3930 899 2094
June 2005...buy stdev[5], sell resist2[1] 4049 871 2156
July 2005...buy leadership[10], sell prd_lastyear[10] 4397 812 2305
Aug 2005...buy stdev[1], sell gain2[10] 4344 826 2270
Sep 2005...buy slice97[10], sell resist2[1] 4330 839 2277
Oct 2005...buy prd_3yrs[10], sell yeargain[10] 4204 878 2212
Nov 2005...buy leadership[1], sell stdev[10] 4426 824 2306
Dec 2005...buy mov_ave100[2], sell mov_ave100[9] 4500 824 2307
Jan 2006...buy corr[1], sell yeargain[1] 4902 738 2479
Feb 2006...buy corr[10], sell recent_price[1] 4728 724 2488
Mar 2006...buy QuickRatio[2], sell gain1[1] 4828 707 2571
April 2006...buy Dividend[10], sell break_ave[2] 4737 715 2563
May 2006...buy leadership[10], sell 3monthgain[1] 4523 762 2444
Jun 2006...buy vslice3[1], sell mov_ave100[1] 4450 768 2433
July 2006...buy NumInstitution[10], sell resist1[10] 4306 824 2359
Aug 2006...buy resist1[10], sell Dividend[10] 4352 801 2426
Sep 2006...buy pair_dif20[10], sell vstdev[1] 4403 791 2460
Oct 2006...buy gain3[2], sell big_vslice[1] 4589 750 2577
Nov 2006...buy prcvd_risk[1], sell corr[1] 4682 743 2637
Dec 2006...buy mov_ave20[1], sell ProfitMargin[10] 4706 738 2651
Jan 2007...buy gain3[10], sell pstdev[10] 4803 729 2705
Feb 2007...buy resist2[4], sell move_ave5[10] 4741 738 2688
Mar 2007...buy inertia[7], sell marketcap[10] 4762 733 2696
Apr 2007...buy NumInstitution[4], sell PE_ratio[10] 4983 705 2757
May 2007...buy QuickRatio[3], sell Debt/Equity[2] 5195 679 2846
Jun 2007...buy corr[10], sell prd_max[1] 4916 687 2794
Jul 2007...buy stdev[1], sell close-low[10] 4654 738 2612
Aug 2007...buy stdev[1], sell yeargain[10] 4726 740 2629
Sep 2007...buy corr[3], sell gain4[1] 4802 753 2660
Oct 2007...buy Dividend[10], sell stdev[10] 4793 781 2687
Nov 2007...buy corr[10], sell prcvd_risk[10] 4509 874 2496
Dec 2007...buy 3monthgain[3], sell mov_ave20[10] 4365 902 2459
Jan 2008...buy prcvd_risk[1], sell marketcap[2] 4099 950 2334
Feb 2008...buy recent_price[2], sell ProfitMargin[10] 3895 1011 2243
Mar 2008...buy gain3[10], sell resist3[2] 3851 1028 2231
Apr 2008...buy marketcap[10], sell NumInstitution[9] 4087 1038 2305
May 2008...buy stdev[1], sell prcvd_risk[10] 4201 1020 2384
Jun 2008...buy QuickRatio[7], sell corr[10] 3849 1159 2126
Jul 2008...buy 3monthgain[10], sell stdev[1] 3650 1137 2197
Aug 2008...buy Dividend[9], sell recent_price[1] 3786 1095 2280
Sep 2008...buy prcvd_risk[1], sell resist3[1] 3536 1196 2099
       

The following table shows non-risk adjusted data...

Month Examined...long strategy/short strategy

Long gain

Short gain

Gain on stocks in general

Feb 2000...buy "pskew" between -1.16 to -0.38, sell stocks in the 70-80 percentile of "stdev"

953

820

1079

March 2000...buy top 10% of "ptot_neg" stocks, sell" t_pratio" between 50 and 60%

920

802

1126

April 2000...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell lowest 10% of "high-close"

922

812

1111

May 2000...buy lowest 100 day ave, sell highest "break_ave"

839

895

1061

June 2000...buy highest 10% of "yeargain", sell lowest 10% of "stdev"

1097

877

1146

July 2000...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell highest 10% of 5 day moving average

1150

938

1148

August 2000...buy highest 10% of "3monthgain", sell lowest "gain3)"

1295

819

1230

Sep 2000...buy top 80-90% of "mov_ave100", sell 30-40% of "vstdev"

1340

816

1218

Oct 2000..buy top 10% of "yeargain", sell lowest 10-20% of "marketcap"

1164

858

1146

Nov 2000...buy highest 10% "vstdev", sell lowest 10%" of "vstdev"

900

856

1075

Dec 2000...buy highest 10% vstdev, sell lowest vstdev

915

794

1157

Jan 2001...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell 40-50% of "gain3"

1317

751

1282

Feb 2001...buy highest 10% of "3monthgain", sell lowest 20-30% of stdev

1247

754

1202

Mar 2001...buy lowest "mov_ave100", sell highest 1monthgain

1019

782

1129

Apr 2001...buy lowest stdev, sell highest stdev

1044

533

1253

May 2001...buy highest 80-90% of "big_pslice", sell  highest 10% of "yeargain"

1163

500

1345

June 2001...buy top 10% stdev, sell 80-90% "vslice3"

1163

497

1361

Jul 2001...buy top 10% of "high-close", sell top 10% of "yeargain"

1159

496

1329

Aug 2001...buy lowest 10% "gain4", sell lowest 10% "stdev"

1126

488

1300

Sep 2001...buy lowest 10% "big_pslice", sell lowest 10% "pave"

946

589

1148

Oct 2001...buy 30-40% percentile of "ptot_neg", sell highest "vstdev"

1011

358

1280

Nov 2001...buy 10-20 percentile of stdev, sell highest 10% stdev

1063

260

1414

Dec 2001...buy lowest 10% "vave", sell highest 10% "close-low"

1129

231

1510

Jan 2002...buy lowest 10% "yeargain", sell highest 10% "break_ave"

1062

241

1495

Feb 2002...buy lowest 10% "vstdev", sell highest "vstdev"

1094

266

1491

March 2002...buy lowest 10% marketcap, sell lowest 10% "break_ave"

1220

232

1630

April 2002...buy lowest 10% "mov_ave100", sell lowest 10% "vstdev"

1086

228

1603

May 2002...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell highest 10% "marketcap"

1042

234

1550

Jun 2002...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell highest 10% of "marketcap"

938

261

1460

Jul 2002...buy lowest 10% marketcap, sell highest 10% "mov_ave5"

844

307

1270

Aug 2002...buy lowest 10% "marketcap", sell highest 10% "vstdev"

808

303

1267

Sep 2002...buy highest 10% "t_pratio", sell lowest 10% "pave"

687

338

1145

Oct 2002...buy highest 10% "vstdev", sell lowest "stdev"

817

342

1199

Nov 2002...buy lowest 10% "yeargain", sell lowest 10% "stdev"

1206

336

1349

Dec 2002...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell highest 10% "marketcap"

1031

362

1264

Jan 2003...buy cheapest 10% of stocks, sell highest "move_ave5"

1060

377

1214

Feb 2003...buy lowest 10% of "stdev", sell lowest 10% of "mov_ave100"

1072

405

1185

Mar 2003...buy lowest 10% "recent price", sell highest 10% "break_ave"

1057

406

1194

April 2003...buy lowest 10% "marketcap", sell highest 10% "vtotal"

1215

330

1316

May 2003...buy lowest 10% "close-low", sell highest 10% "gain1"

1343

272

1480

June 2003...buy lowest 10% "pskew", sell lowest 10% "yeargain"

1370

252

1521

July 2003...buy lowest 10% "vstdev", sell 10-20% "recent price"

1415

233

1600

August 2003...buy lowest 10% "mov_ave100", sell 70-80% "stock_ind"

1490

221

1677

Sept 2003...buy 70-80% "t_vratio", sell lowest 10% of "yeargain"

1460

222

1665

Oct 2003...buy lowest 10% "mov_ave20", sell lowest 10% "stdev"

1607

214

1789

Nov 2003...buy lowest 10% "yeargain", sell lowest 10% "vave"

1650

205

1849

Dec 2003...buy lowest 10% of "stdev", sell highest 10% "mov_ave20"

1689

205

1890

Jan 2004...buy lowest 10% of "recent_price", sell 80-90% "mov_ave5"

1888

198

1962

Feb 2004...buy 70-80% "yeargain", sell lowest 10% "resist3"

1907

197

1987

Mar 2004...buy industries 51 through 61, sell highest 10% "vstdev"

1908

199

1992

Apr 2004...buy vstdev[10], sell stdev[1]

1690

210

1909

May2004...buy recent price[1], sell pstdev[2]

1686 205 1933

Jun 2004... buy  gain1[1], sell industries 86 through 91

1748 199 1998

Jul 2004 ...buy mov_ave100[1], sell industries 1 through 17

1556

199

1875

Aug 2004...buy industries 66-72, sell industries 86-91

1496 194 1866

Sep 2004...buy recent_price[1], sell break-ave[10]

1554 187 1940
Oct 2004...buy industries 66-72, sell stdev[1] 1638 183 1983
Nov 2004...buy industries 62 thru 66, sell break_ave[1] 1808 165 2131
Dec 2004...buy industries 1 thru 17, sell resist2[10] 1800 161 2210
Jan 2005...buy recent_price[1], sell break_ave[10] 1619 165 2116
Feb 2005...buy big_pslice[10], sell stdev[10] 1636 167 2144
Mar 2005...buy pe_ratio[1], sell stdev[10] 1582 179 2087
Apr 2005...buy corr[2], sell prcvd_risk[10] 1497 198 1978
May 2005...buy pair_dif20[1], sell gain4[10] 1628 188 2094
June 2005...buy resist2[10], sell resist2[1] 1711 182 2156
July 2005...buy stdev[1], sell prcvd_risk[10] 1776 159 2305
Aug 2005...buy pave[10], sell gain1[10] 1775 161 2270
Sep 2005...buy 1monthgain[1], sell stdev[1] 1754 161 2277
Oct 2005...buy prd_3yrs[10], sell yeargain[10] 1701 168 2212
Nov 2005...buy break_ave[1], sell stdev[1] 1803 164 2306
Dec 2005...buy yeargain[1], sell mov_ave100[9] 1835 164 2307
Jan 2006...buy corr[1], sell yeargain[1] 1999 147 2479
Feb 2006...buy corr[10], sell recent_price[1] 1928 144 2488
Mar 2006...buy QuickRatio[2], sell PE_ratio[10] 1969 138 2571
April 2006...buy Dividend[10], sell prcvd_risk[10] 1932 140 2563
May 2006...buy prcvd_risk[10], sell stdev[1] 1773 142 2444
June 2006...buy resist2[10], sell pskew[3] 1764 143 2433
July 2006...buy PE_ratio[10], sell stdev[1] 1627 140 2359
Aug 2006...buy ProfitMargin[3], sell QuickRatio[2] 1674 136 2426
Sep 2006...buy pair_dif20[10], sell 3monthgain[1] 1694 131 2460
Oct 2006...buy PE_ratio[3], sell ProfitMargin[1] 1765 123 2577
Nov 2006...buy afterhours_stat[9], sell NumInstitution[10] 1802 122 2637
Dec 2006...buy 1monthgain[1], sell Debt/Equity[4] 1836 120 2651
Jan 2007...buy PEratio[10], sell prcvd_risk[1] 1864 116 2705
Feb 2007...buy resist2[4], sell prd_3yrs[10] 1840 116 2688
Mar 2007...buy prcvd_risk[10], sell stdev[1] 1854 115 2696
Apr 2007...buy QuickRatio[3], sell PE_ratio[10] 1882 111 2757
May 2007...buy stdev[1], sell prcvd_risk[10] 1938 108 2846
Jun 2007...buy corr[10], sell close-low[10] 1834 112 2794
Jul 2007...buy stdev[1], sell prcvd_risk[10] 1736 122 2612
Aug 2007...buy break_ave[1], sell yeargain[10] 1707 122 2629
Sep 2007...buy corr[3], sell gain4[1] 1734 124 2660
Oct 2007...buy high-close[10], sell break_ave[9] 1754 122 2687
Nov 2007...buy corr[10], sell slice47[10] 1650 132 2496
Dec 2007...buy NumInstitution[10], sell gain2[10] 1632 136 2459
Jan 2008...buy resist1[10], sell marketcap[2] 1460 143 2334
Feb 2008...buy ProfitMargin[4], sell ProfitMargin[10] 1438 152 2243
Mar 2008...buy gain3[10], sell mov_20[1] 1422 159 2231
Apr 2008...buy gain4[10], sell NumInstitution[9] 1481 161 2305
May 2008...buy vskew[1], sell QuickRatio[10] 1557 160 2384
Jun 2008...buy QuickRatio[7], sell corr[10] 1427 182 2126
Jul 2008...buy recent_price[10], sell mov_ave20[1] 1370 168 2197
Aug 2008...buy shorts[10], sell recent_price[1] 1423 162 2280
Sep 2008...buy yeargain[10], sell resist3[1] 1219 177 2099
       

 

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