May 26, 2008:  We are now in the process of closing out the below test.  We will continue to buy back the positions we hold, but will no longer short new positions.  When all positions are bought back, we will crunch the numbers and try to ascertain the effectiveness of this "chart-based" approach to seasonal investing.

******

This test runs with the same set of rules as our long side charting test, but here we've looked at seasonal charts to find the historical weak periods associated with various stocks.  For the results of a very promising short-side test we already conducted, take a look here.

As with the long test, we begin with a hypothetical $50,000.  Occasionally, we'll tally things up to get some idea as to how the test is turning out.

As of Dec 16, 2006, 372 buy/sell transactions had been conducted for a total of $368,351...a loss of $3649.  At this time last year, we had realized a $2275 loss.  Thus we now subtract $1,374 from our cash position (3,649-2,275).  We'll refrain from in-depth analysis of the results...we've got to give this a few years before we draw any big conclusions...but we should note that the S&P500 is up about 28% since conception of our test, while the portfolio itself has lost 7.3%.  At no point was our initial $50,000 fully invested. 

The current cash position is $40,351 (we pretend that you "pay" for borrowed stocks so as to set a limit on the value of borrowed holdings at any one time), plus any profit/loss incurred after Dec 16, 2006.

Seasonal Short Period...Stock	Sell Short between May 2007 and April 2008			Sell Short between May 2006 and April 2007			Sell Short between May 2005 and April 2006			Sell Short between May 2004 and April 2005
	Sell Price	Buy-back Price	$1000 + Profit/Loss ($)	Sell Price	Buy-back Price	$1000 + Profit/Loss ($)	Sell Price	Buy-back Price	$1000 + Profit/Loss ($)	Sell Price	Buy-back Price	$1000 + Profit/Loss ($)
May 1-Jun 5...FULT	14.78	15.25	1032	16.50	16.02	1029	21.00	21.82	961
May 1-Jun 5...SWY	36.30	34.58	953	25.06	24.17	1036	21.25	22.62	936	23	22.68	1014
May 1-Jul 15...AHC							92.9	113.73	776	71.54	82.00	854
May 1-Jul 25...MZ	7.00	6.50	1071	1.37	.95	1307	2.20	2.01	1086	3.9	3.02	1226
May 1-Aug 15...GM	31.2	32.85	947	23.20	30.45	688	26.73	34.55	707	47.79	40.77	1147
May 5-Jun 10...AAPL	101.08	126.00	753	71.86	59.44	1173	37.20	37.40	995	26.2	30.20	870
May 5-Jun 25...CMX				47.10	48.55	969	40.95	43.11	947	33.95	32.49	1045
May 5-Jun 25...PD				93.85	76.50	1185	88.70	91.65	957	67.75	76.70	883
May 5-Jul 1...SLB	74.50	85.41	854	72.20	64.90	1101	68.88	76.05	896	55.5	62.60	872
May 5-Jul 15...DD	51.25	51.8	989	44.78	39.78	1112	48.57	44.21	1090	43.53	42.94	1014
May 5-Aug 25...GTK				34.24	34.86	982	25.36	29.36	842	29.80	21.45	1280
May 10-Jun 15...AMT	39.25	42.68	913	35.02	29.36	1162	17.14	18.72	908	13.02	14.40	904
May 10-Jul 1...WDC	18.09	19.50	922	21.36	19.89	1069	13.44	13.44	1000
May 10-Aug 1...HOFF	15.85	17.96	867				.42	.31	1261	1.73	.85	1508
May 15-Jun 15...EAT	33.34	30.51	1085	36.78	35.75	1028	35.05	41.42	818
May 15-Jun 15...SYMC	19.68	19.74	997	16.79	15.49	1077	19.24	21.50	883	47.4	41.24	1149
May 15-Jul 20...AMD	15.55	16.15	961	31.60	21.90	1307	15.70	20.25	710	13.93	12.64	1092
May 15-Aug 1...CCK	24.47	24.35	1005	16.20	16.62	974	14.33	15.77	909	8.4	10.04	805
May 25-Jul 25...VLNC	1.10	1.12	982	1.96	1.38	1296	3.24	3.05	1059
Jun 1-Jul 15...FLS	69.41	75.5	912	53.43	53.12	1006	29.47	30.74	957	20.97	23.01	903
Jun 1-Jul 5...PPP	54.46	52.07	1044	44.60	45.80	973	49.69	54.30	908
Jun 1-Aug 1...OMG	62.67	48.03	1234	31.40	34.82	891	25.05	23.40	1066	26.55	31	823
Jun 1-Aug 1...EBAY	32.6	32.21	1012	32.82	23.81	1275	38.48	42.96	884	88.02	77.48	1120
Jun 1-Aug 5...IDNX				5.91	6.97	821	5.51	5.15	1065	7.49	5.19	1307
Jun 1-Aug 5...AEN	1.04	1.44	615	1.71	1.45	1152	2.81	2.71	1036	15.00	19.13	725
Jun 1-Sep 1...ADBE	44.12	42.75	1031	28.68	32.44	869	33.03	26.92	1185	44.04	45.58	965
Jun 1-Oct 1...FDC							37.84	39.83	947	43.05	43.53	989
Jun 5-Jul 20...DRXR										13.26	10.32	1222
Jun 5-Aug 1...ROP	58.00	59.91	967	46.93	45.21	1037	69.09	76.75	889	52.13	55	945
Jun 5-Aug 1...CVX	82.71	84.77	975	61.26	65.72	927	55.70	58.11	957	90.59	95.65	944
Jun 5-Aug 5...VAL	29.08	27.9	1041	28.14	25.09	1108	47.65	48.75	977
Jun 5-Oct 1...MCD	51.1	56.36	897	33.51	39.12	833	30.41	33.40	902	26.97	28.00	962
Jun 10-Jul 15...DIS	34.28	34.21	1002	28.40	28.16	1008	26.70	26.40	1011	24.52	24.15	1015
Jun 10-Jul 25...HOV	21.66	14.58	1327	30.09	26.22	1129	61.25	72.10	839	34.80	29.72	1146
Jun 10-Aug 1...STAR	14.98	18.47	767	25.41	23.28	1084	30.88	30.10	1025	25.73	24.11	1062
Jun 10-Sep 1...OCQ										1.15	1.47	722
Jun 15-Jul 15...PFE	26.51	25.81	1026	23.34	22.40	1041	28.48	27.55	1033	35.25	34.03	1034
Jun 15-Sep 15...VCI	18.00	9.32	1482	27.53	17.85	1352	36.40	39.54	914	29.98	28.72	1042
Jun 25-Aug 1...TTC	57.81	56.43	1024	45.35	41.36	1088	39.90	40.35	989	69.40	65.30	1059
Jun 25-Aug 1...RHT	23.78	20.74	1128	26.70	23.70	1124	12.32	15.23	764	22.01	17.01	1226
Jun 25-Aug 1...DRQ	47.04	48.29	973	74.57	85.50	853	29.27	33.32	862
Jul 1-Aug 1...RTI	75.88	75.07	1011	57.70	44.20	1232	31.40	34.55	900	16.02	14.90	1070
Jul 1-Aug 1...SBUX	26.4	26.51	996	38.00	33.95	1107	51.73	52.55	985	44.62	46.85	950
Jul 1-Aug 1...ASCA	35.08	32.05	1086	19.36	18.75	1032	26.05	29.28	876	33.44	27.05	1191
Jul 1-Aug 1...AIT	29.56	28.31	1042	24.40	22.95	1059	32.40	35.74	897	30.20	31.85	945
Jul 1-Aug 1...DCLK										7.72	5.14	1334
Jul 1-Aug 1...SEBL							8.95	8.41	1060	10.61	7.83	1262
Jul 1-Sep 1...STW										18.00	15.25	1153
Jul 1-Sep 1...BLDP	5.34	4.50	1157	5.88	6.20	935	4.65	5.95	721	9.35	6.39	1314
Jul 1-Oct 1...OVRL	2.57	1.71	1335	6.70	6.55	1022	9.50	8.11	1146	13.05	13.98	929
Jul 1-Oct 1...TOPP	10.51	9.68	1079	8.29	8.96	919	9.95	8.19	1177	9.60	9.87	972
Jul 1-Oct 15...X	110.00	106.97	1028	69.40	66.90	1036	34.55	35.71	967	35.25	35.61	991
Jul 5-Oct 5...OI	35.57	43.81	768	16.75	15.63	1067	25.00	20.03	1199
Jul 5-Oct 5...MSC	12.30	10.64	1135	8.92	9.90	890	14.60	15.40	945	10.60	13.54	723
Jul 10-Oct 1...ELON	16.50	25.17	525	7.57	8.26	911	7.05	9.16	701	10.58	8.00	1244
Jul 10-Oct 1...AWA							6.39	8.70	648	7.94	5.43	1316
Jul 15-Oct 1...AKAM	50.03	28.8	1424	32.71	50.00	529	14.70	15.96	914	14.72	13.97	1051
Aug 1-Oct 1...DD	46.65	49.81	932	39.76	42.64	928	42.87	39.43	1080	42.88	42.95	998
Aug 5-Oct 1...MU	11.83	11.26	1048	15.60	17.51	878	11.90	13.37	877	12.93	12.18	1058
Aug 5-Oct 1...JBHT	26.65	26.29	1014	20.97	20.63	1016	19.25	19.06	1010	37.42	37.88	988
Aug 5-Oct 1...JPM	43.76	45.47	961	45.00	46.96	956	35.35	34.19	1033	37.24	39.90	922
Aug 5-Oct 10...SLGN	49.77	56.01	875	35.51	38.75	909	30.51	32.95	920	46.65	46.68	1000
Aug 10-Oct 1...ARRS	14.51	12.26	1155	10.47	11.49	903	10.36	11.90	851	3.90	5.22	662
Aug 10-Oct 5...IRF	37.2	35.00	1059	33.53	33.99	986	43.61	44.32	984	35.50	37.39	947
Aug 15-Sep 15...HEI	44.3	44.95	985	30.70	33.15	920	23.95	24.70	969	16.45	17.04	964
Aug 15-Sep 20...DIS	32.3	34.67	927	29.65	30.61	968	25.85	23.90	1075	21.00	23.26	892
Aug 15-Sep 20...C	45.58	48.36	939	48.21	49.83	966	43.65	45.31	962	44.02	46.06	954
Aug 15-Oct 1...CCK	23.48	22.75	1031	17.00	18.46	914	16.40	15.84	1034	9.43	10.30	908
Aug 15-Nov 1...XRX	16.25	17.34	933	14.61	17.22	821	13.77	13.57	1015	13.05	14.89	859
Aug 20-Sep 20...SON	34.42	31.00	1099	32.81	33.28	986	27.40	27.65	991	25.88	26.25	986
Aug 20-Oct 25...BAC	51.86	47.30	1088	52.36	53.54	977	43.79	43.40	1009	43.75	43.65	1002
Aug 25-Oct 1...CIEN							2.20	2.70	773	1.97	1.99	990
Aug 25-Oct 1...BRCM	33.1	37.04	881	28.72	30.43	940	42.20	47.50	874	29.00	27.76	1043
Aug 25-Oct 5...WDC	22.00	25.32	849	17.14	17.45	982	14.32	12.80	1106	7.26	9.30	719
Aug 25-Oct 5...CYMI	39.1	39.84	981	39.09	43.79	880	32.75	31.90	1026
Aug 25-Oct 15...AMT	39.34	43.57	892	35.35	37.99	925	23.70	23.57	1005	14.15	16.18	857
Sep 1-Oct 1...AAPL	140.00	154.63	896	68.47	75.01	904	47.00	54.16	848	34.30	39.12	859
Sep 1-Oct 5...AMD	13.17	13.41	982	25.25	24.80	1018	20.73	24.56	813	11.70	13.21	871
Sep 1-Oct 25...NAVZ				22.97	27.83	788	31.87	26.98	1153	35.76	33.8	1055
Sep 5-Oct 5...SHLM	21.5	21.14	1017	23.75	23.05	1029	17.69	17.53	1009	20.64	21.76	946
Sep 5-Oct 15...BOBE	33.62	30.39	1096	28.74	33.11	848	23.35	22.03	1057	25.80	22.5	1128
Sep 5-Oct 20...RAD	5.07	4.01	1209	4.32	4.36	991	4.00	3.57	1108	4.32	3.77	1127
Sep 10-Oct 25...CHRS	8.55	7.28	1149	13.39	14.81	894	11.92	11.22	1059	7.18	7.28	986
Oct 1-Nov 1...CDE	3.8	3.91	971	4.74	5.00	945	4.19	3.78	1098	4.74	5.05	935
Oct 1-Nov 1...HL	8.97	9.52	939	5.74	6.61	848	4.29	3.40	1207	7.32	6.64	1093
Oct 1-Dec 1...DP							52.90	46.00	1130	41.1	48.58	818
Oct 10-Dec 10...PPP				42.70	51.20	801	54.81	53.50	1024	48.15	48.59	991
Oct 15-Dec 15...ABAX	25.03	37.03	521	22.20	19.30	1150	13.57	15.73	841	12.43	14.18	859
Oct 25-Dec 1...DRQ	52.7	56.35	931	38.70	41.97	916	39.30	51.30	695	23.6	23.87	989
Oct 25-Dec 20...CCUR	1.25	.82	1344	1.70	1.69	1006	1.57	1.82	841	1.79	2.61	542
Oct 25-Dec 20...HGR	11.95	10.39	1131	7.11	7.45	954	6.66	5.80	1129	5.45	7.98	536
Nov 1-Dec 1...NSS				65.60	66.00	994	33.60	41.06	778	19.05	22.06	842
Nov 1-Dec 1...WEN	33.69	28.30	1160	34.70	32.53	1063	46.40	51.50	890	33.55	37.65	878
Nov 1-Dec 15...GI				80.97	76.11	1060	56.25	57.37	990	23.20	26.10	875
Nov 1-Dec 15...NAII	7.87	8.33	942	8.64	8.58	1007	5.81	6.25	924	10.00	7.87	1213
Nov 1-Dec 15...SCON	10.80	8.25	1236	2.53	2.35	1071	.70	.50	1286	1.02	1.26	764
Nov 1-Dec 15...GTW				1.68	2.16	714	2.85	2.75	1035	5.91	6.48	904
Nov 5-Dec 5...CGNX	19.57	20.16	970	23.10	24.23	951	30.83	31.15	990	26.80	28.05	953
Nov 10-Dec 15...STAR							24.66	24.55	1004	26.02	26.66	975
Nov 10-Dec 31...RGEN	4.30	6.42	507	3.06	2.78	1092	3.05	4.09	659	2.40	2.67	887
Nov 15-Dec 15...LSI	6.10	5.63	1077	10.59	9.36	1116	7.79	8.57	900	4.81	5.20	919
Nov 30-Dec 31...MTSN	8.73	8.43	1034	9.47	9.43	1004	9.51	10.01	947	9.39	11.35	791
Jan 1-Feb 1...HLYW										13.09	14.04	927
Jan 1-Feb 1...SFP				2.29	2.90	734	2.06	1.81	1121	5.77	4.63	1198
Jan 1-Feb 5...VCI	11.62	10.10	1131	14.57	15.76	918	29.32	27.85	1050	35.05	34.71	1009
Jan 1-Feb 15...ORLY	32.28	28.51	1168	32.18	34.61	924	32.25	33.90	949	44.99	46.79	960
Jan 5-Feb 15...UFI	2.24	2.25	996	2.26	2.82	752	3.03	3.26	924	3.27	3.64	887
Jan 5-Feb 15...AMR	13.5	14.84	901	33.80	37.75	883	22.33	25.00	880	9.67	9.17	1052
Jan 10-Feb 10...RHT	20.05	18.18	1093	22.02	24.00	910	29.40	26.85	1087	12.25	12.40	988
Jan 10-Apr 1...X	100.68	125.37	755	70.50	99.3	591	50.98	61.95	785	49.10	51.20	958
Jan 15-Feb 15...PWER	2.83	2.34	1173	7.49	6.58	1121	5.70	5.65	1009	7.95	6.73	1153
Jan 15-Mar 25...YELL (now YRCW)	14.67	15.05	974	40.90	42.93	950	48.50	38.50	1206	52.74	61.19	840
Jan 15-Apr 1...AKAM	27.86	29.77	931	54.59	50.15	1081	22.60	33.20	531	12.50	12.74	981
Jan 15-Apr 1...BRCM	23.75	19.6	1175	32.47	32.52	998	56.08	43.69	1221	32.11	30.15	1061
Jan 15-Apr 5...KRON				36.27	53.62	522	37.94	39.10	969	47.36	51.76	907
Jan 25-Feb 25...FDRY	14.95	13.28	1112	14.39	15.64	913	14.49	13.92	1039	10.34	10.13	1020
Feb 1-Mar 1...WFSL	24.49	22.44	1084	23.20	23.41	991	23.87	23.81	1002	26.07	23.84	1085
Feb 1-Mar 1...EMC	16.00	15.54	1029	13.95	13.70	1018	13.37	14.09	946	13.00	12.78	1017
Feb 1-Mar 5...RTN	65.29	65.10	1003	51.92	52.10	997	40.89	44.11	921	37.56	38.74	969
Feb 1-Mar 20...SIE	42.87	41.63	1029	40.15	41.25	973	39.62	41.46	954	55.15	61.08	896
Feb 1-Mar 20...STW										19.28	17.83	1075
Feb 1-Apr 10...MDT	46.49	49.68	931	53.45	48.96	1084	56.47	50.66	1103	52.49	52.35	1003
Feb 1-May 1...ADM	44.24	44.08	1004	34.31	36.98	922	30.27	36.85	783	24.23	18.03	1256
Feb 1-May 1...NOVL	6.34	6.25	1014	7.27	7.30	996	9.71	8.24	1151	5.79	5.90	981
Feb 5-Mar 5...IMMU	2.47	2.50	988	4.30	4.20	1023	3.23	2.92	1096	3.88	2.49	1358
Feb 5-Mar 5...ASCA	21.64	18.72	1135	31.92	31.97	999	21.98	21.86	1005	49.02	51.65	947
Feb 5-Apr 5...VLNC	1.60	4.49	-931	1.54	1.06	1312	2.01	2.35	831	3.12	3.12	1000
Feb 5-May 5...CNXT	.67	.50	1254	1.97	1.51	1234	3.32	3.70	886	1.59	1.09	1314
Feb 5-Mar 20...NU	28.45	24.57	1136	27.73	31.05	916	19.65	20.00	982	19.30	18.90	1021
Mar 1-Apr 1...CIEN	25.9	31.53	783	28.09	28.15	998	4.08	5.32	696	1.98	1.76	1111
Mar 1-Apr 1...AMT	38.41	39.48	972	38.16	38.06	1003	31.91	30.31	1050	18.47	18.46	1001
Mar 1-Apr 1...ANDW				10.40	10.51	989	13.57	12.33	1091	12.10	11.71	1032
Mar 1-Apr 1...REGN	19.78	19.29	1025	19.36	21.62	883	16.40	16.55	991	6.11	5.11	1164
Mar 1-Apr 1...DBD	37.41	37.96	985	46.80	47.71	981	39.94	41.03	973	53.79	54.92	979
Mar 1-Apr 1...MO	22.28	21.24	1047	83.34	86.7	960	72.20	71.00	1017	65.93	66.00	999
Mar 1-Apr 5...PLNR	4.71	4.32	1083	8.88	8.43	1051	15.63	17.22	898	8.10	8.85	907
Mar 1-Apr 5...DNA	80.01	79.96	1000	83.48	83.00	1006	86.25	82.70	1041	47.32	55.94	818
Mar 1-Apr 15...SSYS	18.81	18.95	993	36.99	41.25	885	27.47	27.65	993	28.75	27.67	1038
Mar 1-Apr 20...ALKS	12.92	11.29	1126	16.12	16.69	965	25.40	21.25	1163	11.67	11.64	1002
Mar 1-May 5...CTIC	1.39	.72	1482	6.08	5.64	1072	1.94	1.83	1057	10.08	3.56	1647
Mar 5-Apr 5...TOL	21.69	24.67	863	28.93	27.47	1050	32.83	34.30	955	91.15	81.35	1108
Mar 5-Apr 5...MRVC	1.53	1.57	974	3.45	3.62	951	4.34	3.83	1118	3.63	3.09	1149
Mar 5-Apr 5...RIMM	104.49	121.33	839	131.88	143.50	912	81.15	86.48	934	65.21	75.83	837
Mar 5-Apr 5...SFA										30.45	28.28	1071
Mar 5-Apr 5...FDRY	12.10	12.3	983	13.50	13.95	967	15.36	17.28	875	10.44	9.72	1069
Mar 10-May 1...SCHL	33.77	28.1	1168	34.42	31.57	1083	29.76	26.66	1104	36.48	34.68	1049
Mar 15-May 1...COST	60.02	70.78	821	52.40	53.58	977	55.00	54.74	1005	45.70	40.71	1109
Mar 20-Apr 20...ERTS	47.13	51.39	910	48.95	51.95	939	52.89	56.46	933	66.59	51.01	1249
Mar 20-Apr 20...BNT	13.66	15.45	869	7.70	10.18	678	13.75	12.61	1083	8.15	7.60	1067
Mar 25-Apr 25...RMBS	18.90	22.87	790	21.35	20.56	1037	38.49	44.45	845	15.75	14.65	1070
Apr 5-May 15...BOBE	28.64	29.78	959	37.91	36.54	1036	29.59	28.56	1035	22.71	21.43	1056

Copyright © 2008 MarketSynopsis.com. All rights reserved.