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Here, in an attempt to answer the question, "What happened in January 2005?", we select the top 20 January 2005 losers (via % losses) out of about 2000 stocks, and make some comments about each.  In case you're not aware, the usual, solid seasonal trends of the last 11 Januaries reversed rather dramatically over this period.

We won't jump to any profound conclusions.  However, it's fairly obvious that a good chunk of these stocks fall into the category of "semiconductors or hi-tech stocks that traded a great deal higher several years ago".  What we have, then, are stocks that performed outrageously well in the "internet bubble" period of early 2000, lost significantly thereafter, had nice gains in 2003, and were largely weak in 2004.  

One theory worth considering:  Given the gains that many of these stocks experienced in 2003, it wouldn't make sense to sell these stocks at the end of 2004.  A better tax-avoidance strategy would be to dump them in 2005, thus delaying capital gains a full year.

Another explanation might be:  the losses were largely semiconductor-specific.  Since these stocks tend to be relatively cheap, and experienced losses over 2004, the losses in the "yearlong losers" and "cheap stocks" group were after-effects of the weakness in semiconductors.  This explanation suffers a bit with some analysis, though:  we note that expensive semiconductors outperformed cheap semiconductors, and those with decent 2004 performances outperformed those that were downright weak.

Symbol Industry Comments
lexr media bad guidance
epix biotech downgrade, class actions suits galore
look computer services bad guidance, traded at $80 in 2000 (now $2.00), monster gains in January 2002
sipx semiconductors class action, earnings restatement, traded at $60 in 2000 (now $2.00)
cree semiconductors bad guidance, traded at $100 in 2000 (now $24)
fle mobile homes litigation, bad guidance
tmta semiconductors announced restructuring, traded at $40 in 2000 (now $1.20)
amkr semiconductors no special news, traded at $60 in 2000...now $5
nwac airline airline stock
jdsu communications tech weak results, traded at $200 in 2000 (now $2)
insu construction weak guidance
tivo broadcasting traded at $50 in 2000...now $4
irn business services no comments
ebay internet retail weak guidance
supg biotech bad news on its drug, traded at $80 in 2000 (now $5)
pcle computer hardware traded at $35 in 2000...now $5
cure biotech no comments
scon electronics no special news, traded at $100 in 2000 (now $1)
cmgi financial services no special news, traded at $200 in 2000 (now $2)
tfs electronics no special news, traded at $100 in 2000 (now $1.60)
dal airlines airline stock
amd semiconductors weak guidance
mtsn semiconductors stock was actually upgraded by Smith Barney!, traded at $60 in 2000 (now $9)
io scientific instruments class action, downgrades

 

 

 

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