Seasonal Charts:  We've generated a number of "seasonal charts" for popular indices and stocks.  Rather than plotting the entire history of a stock, we condense all the data into a year, quarter, or month period.  For example, to get the yearly plots of the Dow, we looked all the percentage gains and losses for the first day of the year (since 1931) and calculated the average gain.  Then we proceeded to the second day, and onwards until the last day of the year.  The same thinking applies to quarterly and monthly plots.

Viewing the correct charts, you'll see that any number of well-known stock market anomalies...the "end of the month effect", the "January effect", the "December effect", etc...are evident.  Academics have spent a great deal of time statistically validating or invalidating these anomalies, but here they're easily visualized in graphic form.  Other overlooked anomalies are also seen!

It would seem to make sense to subtract out the percentage gains in a broad index (like the S&P 500) from the gains in narrower indices or stock charts.  That way, if, say, the S&P 500 gained 2% and Microsoft also gained 2% in the same period, the seasonal chart would show Microsoft as being flat during the period.  There's a problem with this approach...volatile stocks tend to gain and lose in excess of the market.  If, say, you subtracted out the gains and losses in the general market from the gains and losses in a hi-tech index (e.g. the XCI), the end result would usually be nothing more than a "dampened" version of the broad index.  So now you have to correct your data for volatility...a bag of worms we really don't care to open for the time being.  Nevertheless, we are capable of constructing such "comparison plots" for interested subscribers.

Scouring our website, you'll understand that we're not necessarily big fans of the philosophy of looking at the longest possible string of historical data.  In many cases, it's likely that shorter-term views of history would be more useful from the point of view of profiting in the stock market.  Make of the charts what you will.

For other important caveats and instructions regarding the charts, click here.

We believe the charts would be most insightful when viewed with earnings and dividend cycles in mind, particularly when looking at individual stocks.  In cases with stocks with relatively large dividends, do remember that shorters are liable for the payment of dividends on stocks they've borrowed...stocks with strong tendencies to dip at certain times of the year sometimes make up for these dips with nice dividend payments.

When viewing indices, be aware that they are weighted toward large cap stocks.  The banking index you see below, for example, won't really give much of an indication of what might be expected from the myriad regional banks.  Even the "small cap" index below is weighted toward the largest of the small caps.

We've experimented with several different charting formats...we apologize for any inconsistencies in charting style that you may see.

Currently, the following yearly, quarterly, and monthly charts can be viewed.  Viewers may request charts (in moderation, please!).  Upon making a selection below, a new window will pop up...that way, you can easily open numerous plots to make comparisons.

If you're particularly interested in seasonality in any of the following industry groups, click and look at the list of seasonal charts we offer for stocks and indices in that particular industry (near the bottom of the page):  Banking Stocks, Biotechnology Stocks, Mining, Gold and Silver, Networking, Diversified Computer Hardware, and Semiconductors.

The charting software is from www.spacejock.com.

Another resource for seasonal charts would be www.seasonalcharts.com .

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